Input Volatility, Week 3
Garrett Wilson, Carson Steele, and game-by-game thoughts on intriguing spots
I’ve been talking about the offensive trends a bunch around here, and on Thursday I got a chance to talk at length with Shawn Siegele on Stealing Bananas about them. I’m biased, but I think that episode did a really good job of covering the whole problem — summarizing where we’re at while also discussing several key factors to consider about where we’ll be going. It was a really fun conversation, and I wanted to make sure to highlight it for those of you who are mostly readers and don’t listen to a ton of podcasts (like me!). Even if that’s you, that’s one I’d make time for, if you’re into that sort of discussion.
But at this point I feel like I’m all talked out about it, so it’s not the direction I want to go with this introduction. One broad league-wide volatility thing right now is I do hope the run rates have been a Week 1 and 2 thing, and we’ll start to see more aggression and offenses open up, even as scoring isn’t suddenly going to return to 2020 levels for an extended period of time. Essentially, 2024 has been down from even 2022 and 2023 levels, and I’m hopeful that part of it regresses a little bit.
The Jets came out throwing heavily last night against a Patriots’ defense that’s been good against the run, but the Garrett Wilson start to the season has been frustrating. I’m obviously a huge Wilson guy, but he’s left production on the field so far this season, starting with a really lazy sideline play in San Francisco on a second down play that was ruled a catch because there was so obviously enough room that it didn’t seem possible he didn’t get his feet down, but it was overturned on review and eventually led to a turnover on downs two plays later.
On Thursday night, we got more of that, including a back shoulder early where he let his momentum take him into the boundary, which is just something great receivers don’t do. It wasn’t an easy play, but the very best have the body control where they don’t leave production on the field because of the boundary, which is often referred to as an extra defender.
Then later, he and Aaron Rodgers did not have the timing down on several other potential back shoulder plays, and probably the worst was he was put in motion and just rounded that toward the line of scrimmage and got called for an illegal shift. Some might say that kind of thing happens often, and guys do sort of round toward the field sometimes, but this was so obvious that while we were watching live on Ship Chasing, I called it out in real time, because it was the kind of thing the ref just had to call. Again, lazy play.
My take on this is both that Wilson should be fine, because the volume is obviously there, but also that this is clearly not the extreme upside thesis I was playing. And while it’s going to sound like blaming everyone else, I do think the second Zach Wilson season was horrible for his development. The Jets made the inexplicable decision all last year to not try and meaningfully upgrade QB — seemingly because they didn’t want to upset Rodgers into last offseason — so they just punted on 2023 altogether despite a legit great defense and some young studs at the skill positions.
Early in the year, Wilson looked completely locked in, not just with the sick one-handed TD catch in the opener, but with his house call in Week 2 in Dallas, but also the other wins he had in that game where he went 8-2-83-1 but should have had about 6 catches for 150 and 2. From there, his effort did wane through 2023, which I’d attributed to how insanely frustrating it must be to know on another timeline you were experiencing your Year 2 breakout, but how on this one you’re going through a whole second season of the type of negative feedback that it doesn’t matter how well you do your job, your success is dependent on things outside your control. And I’d argue that seems to have impacted his preparation and focus headed into Year 3, where we’re seeing that same type of apathy carry over. The problem is this time his QB is actually dialed in, and it’s costing Wilson production at the edges because of his own mistakes.
I also got a question from Connor on Stealing Signals this week about everyone’s favorite alligator owner:
What makes you more bearish on [Carson] Steele vs other film guys? He seems like a natural runner (from watching him in college and in preseason), and don't think his value is in being NFL 'fast' but is more tied to combination of great size, strength, vision, and balance. Also, you often make the point about what do you win if you're right based on uncertainty - he feels like the prime example here. I think we know [Samaje] Perine is a pass-down only grinder at best and [Kareem] Hunt seemed quite washed up based on last year (and is a 29 yr old RB with minimal recent production and no interest across league despite questionable RB rooms).
I think this is a pretty good summation of Steele’s upside, and I wouldn’t even necessarily consider myself particularly bearish (the deal with him this week is sort of like how ADP only requires one drafter to be on a guy, but isn’t always reflective of consensus because we don’t find out where the other 75% of the market values the guy, but Steele got some massive bids in high stakes stuff, and then I also saw multiple long-time high stakes grinders who manage huge portfolios and almost always try to smooth out exposures to some degree note that they didn’t even put in price-enforcing bids on this guy, so I’d call that side of the equation more bearish than me, as I did put in bids and actually won him for 20% in one league).
But this question is also a great example of the type of framing that can get you to believe whatever you want to believe. Connor references the framework I often use of leaning into uncertainty, but then in the same sentence says “I think we know” something about Perine’s limitations and Hunt “seemed quite washed up,” which aren’t necessarily things I’d heavily refute, but are a great example of recognizing uncertainty for one player but not another.
What has read as Steele bullishness is that same type of commentary, regarding him. He’s legitimately not an NFL athlete by tested measurables, but there are times where guys out-produce that stuff, and someone like Darrel Williams would paint that as more possible in this offense. I was also somewhat generous in calling him a big-time college producer, because he was really good at Ball State and then when transferring to UCLA in a Chip Kelly scheme that has inflated RB numbers for decades, he was meaningfully worse and less explosive than Zach Charbonnet the year prior (5.1 YPC compared to 7.0). And Charbonnet’s a guy where we’ve just hoped for a floor of explosiveness but he honestly might just not be good.
Of course, with a 96% snap rate last week, Charbonnet did get there, and he should be in lineups again this week. I’m talking longer term with what we’ve seen from him so far, and then how that emphasizes that Steele’s collegiate production was maybe overstated. In fact, he split with a guy named T.J. Harden and they had nearly identical stats last year, and Harden has started 2024 looking dreadful under a new coach.
The point isn’t to say that Steele can’t do it, but with a 4.75 40-yard dash (that some have wanted to set aside based on a better 10-yard split and those things), there are more concerns than have been let on. The stuff in the “good” column is he made Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks List” in 2023, with Feldman referencing his clocked on-field speed, his weight-room numbers (big bench and squat), and an impressive vertical jump. He’s definitely the type of player that K.C. could use to attack inside against these lighter defenses, and I fully expect him to get work.
The questions are, “How much?” and “Will it matter?” Because I think what we’re describing is 8-10 low-value touches. People are excited about his potential goal-line role, but you have to figure in how the Chiefs actually do a lot more passing near the goal line, and Steele had a costly fumble last week. There’s virtually no scenario I can see where they just pound Steele every green zone down, which isn’t to say he can’t score a close TD, but one of the things with this type of profile is you need multiple-TD upside and would like at least the potential for one TD to cover the outcomes where he rushes for 50 yards and doesn’t catch a pass, to at least get you into double figures. And even if he’s the between-the-tackles hammer, this is an offense where the team could run five plays inside the 5-yard line — which would be a lot — and he might get literally zero carries, or one, as they instead do all their inside shovel pass, screens, motion tip passes, etc.
And we are going to see some of that. We’ll see Xavier Worthy designed touches playing off Steele, and that is sort of a new-age thunder-and-lightning duo that could work. One of my major worries about Perine is he could legit play on just passing downs, and I feel far more confident in Steele’s touch floor this week. Hunt isn’t even playing.
But again, in terms of what we get when we’re right, we have to believe the Chiefs want to use this guy in space, basically. They’ve listed him as a fullback, but we have to believe they’ll do more than give him maybe one token screen pass, and actually run him on a ton of pass routes (which requires trusting him in pass protection, though I’d assume he can probably handle stepping up into a blitz with his physicality). I do acknowledge there’s uncertainty here, but I think even the most pro-Steele analysts need to acknowledge that Andy Reid probably sees this guy’s limitations. My whole point about last week was people focused basically solely on the 7 carries, when that was a product of a gameplan that also featured 24 Isiah Pacheco touches, and Steele only gained 24 yards on those plays and lost a fumble. Over two games, he has 27 yards on 9 carries for 3.0 yards per carry, and has run 6 pass routes. I’m not saying that can’t expand — it very obviously could — but I would not be doing my job if I didn’t reference this stuff when people were literally bidding 90% of their FAAB on this guy like he’s this year’s Kyren Williams.
And even that is a reasonable possibility. But I’m not sure of it, anymore than I’m sure it can’t be Perine, or that Hunt is so done that they won’t get him going. Andy Reid said this week that Hunt had a chance to play, and then when Ian Rapoport announced yesterday he wouldn’t active Sunday, the line he was fed was, “Not quite ready yet.” The commentary on him has sounded like activation is inevitable, and yeah he might be dust but he also led the NFL in rushing yards under Reid once upon a time and if you don’t think coaches remember that kind of thing and see guys through rose-colored glasses well beyond their decline, you’re not paying attention (look over at Dallas if you need a first example).
And again, none of this suggests Steele can’t out-produce what I’m saying. I can see a lot of scenarios where Reid gives this dude 15 touches this week almost to prove a point; he does shit like that all the time.
But to the question of “what do I get when I’m right?” I’m typically trying to parse these extreme tail outcomes, whether there’s a 5% likelihood of something or 1%, or sub-1%. And with Steele, I think you do have the possibility of carries this week, but also where all available evidence suggests he’ll get a reasonably brief opportunity to prove he’s something — including because they’ll just throw more — and also that he probably isn’t a great bet to make such an impact that this expands into a several-week, high-upside role. That path is just very narrow here, and even if it does hit, all you need to do is go look at Pacheco’s scoring history to realize it won’t mean massive upside. (And as much as I’ve been low on Pacheco as a talent, and have pointed out that many types of RBs have scored in this backfield, which is a big notch on Steele’s belt, I still believe Pacheco has shown to be meaningfully better than what we should expect to see from Steele in about 75% or more of the possible outcomes, from a pure talent perspective.)
So there are multiple layers of talent and usage stuff — and I think for Steele it’s really can he get routes and passing downs on the usage side since I talked through how a TRAP back in this offense isn’t likely to matter enough — and all of it does add up to a really pretty narrow path on the tail outcomes. Could he be a guy who puts up a stretch of 11-point games? Sure. And I realize that could be big for a lot of you who just need some RB points, so please understand that’s very much in the possible range of what I see. I’d probably expect Reid to do some schemed stuff with him and have 4-5 plays in the playbook that use him this week in a way that does give him some production floor.
But the question above referenced what do you win when you’re right, and the bids in high stakes stuff this week seemed to believe we have a Kyren situation here, and I’ll just say that after Week 1 last year, I saw the Kyren upside to a way more significant degree, because of the history of RB usage in that offense. (And it’s not always about the offense, but in this case, it’s easy to point at that as a big different between the Rams and the Chiefs.)
Having written this all up, believe me when I say this is one of the most fascinating spots of Week 3, and I’m legitimately excited to see how it plays out. It’d be pretty sweet if he hits for a long run early and parlays that into a real role. Maybe the clocked on-field times do tell us something his 40 time does not; that seems to be where we’re heading in terms of identifying real athleticism. I also worry that his college production doesn’t show enough of that, and I want to believe there’s some upside for Perine in the Jerick McKinnon role, because again one of the things I was noting with respect to Connor’s question was it didn’t seem to talk through all the positives of the other guys.
For Perine, you’re already playing on pass downs, so if you do get some early-down work, the “what do you get when you’re right” is way more impactful. The creative red zone usage I was talking about? That often features the passing-down back, which is how McKinnon had the 10 TDs — 9 receiving — in the 2022 regular season. He had 5 — 4 receiving — in 12 games last year. A lot of that was just usage, and being the guy on the field for those formations, and so if Perine gets that gets the routes edge, he might not even need much in the way of carries, but you can quickly see how valuable it would be if you envision scenarios where they decide Steele is limited and they just want to play Perine 60% of the snaps or more.
Let’s get to the games. As always, I offer these considerations solely because you guys have asked, and because I might have a thought about a different part of a range of outcomes in some cases, relative to what you’re seeing elsewhere. I don’t offer these thoughts because I think they will be explicitly great predictions.
We’ve reached the point in the season where a lot of content is leaning into things we’ve seen with early matchups, and I just don’t always catch those matchup-based things. Instead, I go game by game and just throw out what hits me.
Giants at Browns
I suppose the only thing for the Giants is if the Browns are good enough to lock up Malik Nabers’ volume a little bit, in a way the Commanders clearly were not, Wan’Dale Robinson could have a little more target upside than it appears. The idea with Robinson is he’s the next most trustworthy option for target-earning. This does not mean you should sit Nabers in any situation.
There’s clear volatility with the Browns RBs after Jerome Ford lost basically his whole Week 1 role in favor of a much larger D’Onta Foreman role in Week 2. It’s not at all clear what that might mean for this game, where there could be plenty of RB touches. Both guys have some touch-based upside. Ford had the long run late in Week 2, and Foreman was unimpressive, so I guess I expect Ford to get some work back, and it’s why I wasn’t really in on Foreman as a big play relative to what looked like a potentially valuable role.
Bears at Colts
We get the movable object meeting the stoppable force. Chicago’s rushing game has been atrocious, but the Colts aren’t interested in stopping RBs, as both lead backs have gone for over 150 yards against them through two weeks. I don’t anticipate that here, but I don’t know what I anticipate. D’Andre Swift has looked terrible so far, and maybe some more Khalil Herbert would be helpful. Shane Waldron has been too preoccupied with Travis Homer snaps so far.
With no Keenan Allen, there’s obvious upside potential for Rome Odunze here, but the offense as a whole has just not looked good. Although, again, neither has the Colts’ defense. It could just be a D.J. Moore smash spot. I have a hard time pulling the trigger on Caleb Williams, but he also could have his first big fantasy game.
With Josh Downs potentially active, the secondary Colts’ WRs become a bit of an issue against a good defense. I’ve been asked about Alec Pierce, and really I’ve been looking at him as a guy who has hit on a few things through two games, which happens. But that also could keep Adonai Mitchell lower in the rotation as Downs works in, and then Downs’ health is a question mark. All tricky stuff, and going to be very hit-or-miss on the big plays anyway.
Texans at Vikings
Nico Collins looks like the clear No. 1, but there’s obvious potential for that to still shift and balance some. Wouldn’t be crazy if Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs both hit and not Nico, for example.
Cam Akers, obviously, with not just Joe Mixon but also Dameon Pierce out. Dare Ogunbowale ran 26% routes and Akers just 15% last week, and Akers at times has been treated by other teams as not really a pass-down back, so it’ll be interesting to see whether Ogunbowale just plays on long-down-and-distance snaps or takes a higher chunk of the routes. Regardless, Akers should see plenty of early-down volume.
Jalen Nailor’s the main volatility guy for Minnesota, with the rest of the offense pretty well known at this point. The two backs should both play, with Ty Chandler mostly settling on low-value touches, and Justin Jefferson is obviously the centerpiece of the passing game with little TE involvement. The question is on whether Nailor can start earning more volume after just four catches in two games, though he’s obviously scored in both.
Eagles at Saints
Projections are going to be solid for the Eagles, I’d guess. Perhaps Jahan Dotson has some upside, but I’m not sure we have reason to believe that, and he’s still only been with the team a couple weeks. Expect DeVonta Smith to again dominate production with A.J. Brown out, for Saquon Barkley to be a focal point, and for Dallas Goedert to mostly have the No. 3 weapon upside, which I think projections are going to catch.
Mentioned in Signals this week that outside his two long TDs, Rashid Shaheed has 40 total receiving yards through two weeks. In 9 of 15 games last year, he had fewer than 40 receiving yards. He’s not really shown us he’s a high-volume guy yet, just what we’ve always known about his big-play ability. This is another great matchup for that, to be clear, but if that gets capped by defenses, there’s obvious floor volatility here, too. I’m seeing projections that have Shaheed and Chris Olave way closer in projections than I would have them. It’s Olave with the real 30-point upside to rack up double-digit targets and smash, in my estimation. Obviously we don’t know a ton, though, given how little the Saints have thrown through two weeks, and it’s possible Shaheed’s developed as a player, as well. I just don’t think we’ve necessarily seen evidence of that, rather than just stringing together two of his typical spikes.
Chargers at Steelers
Justin Herbert seems legitimately questionable, and if he misses, you’ll be talking about one of the run-heaviest games of the year. We know the Steelers want to establish the run, and Jim Harbaugh will absolutely play a Big-10, ball-control game. The volatility here is on this game to actually go under its extremely low 35.5 total. I don’t think we should expect several big offensive producers here.
Broncos at Buccaneers
I still believe in the Broncos’ RB projections, as I’ve written about. We just need offensive production overall, and the Broncos haven’t offered a real game in that regard yet.
Bucky Irving remains a volatility guy where the work could expand at any point if the team deems him the superior rusher. The issue, as I’ve written, is he hasn’t exactly been amazing himself. Rachaad White has seemingly regressed, though.
Packers at Titans
Another spot where the QB seems legitimately questionable, and it impacts the whole projection. If Jordan Love is back, Jayden Reed needs to be in lineups especially, and then there’s upside volatility for the other main WRs, too. If it’s Malik Willis again, you have the likelihood for another run-heavy gameplan, but where the Titans will have likely prepared for some of the trickery the Packers pulled out with the false guard pulls and those things last week. I would expect the effectiveness of that to dip.
Tyjae Spears did not get a second-half opportunity last week after an in-game injury, but appears ready to go here. There’s significant volatility with his role after he out-snapped Tony Pollard in the first half last week, but also while factoring in that he’s maybe not 100%.
DeAndre Hopkins might just be compromised all year, but eventually he would seemingly get a little healthier, and I’m just referencing him at this point as someone to keep in the back of your mind. He’s definitely not a start, and I’m still pretty out on Will Levis anyway, so it’s tough to know how that would ever hit in a meaningful way, especially as Calvin Ridley has been better than I anticipated (but Ridley’s probably still a sell high if you have him, the more I’ve considered his situation).
Panthers at Raiders
Here’s your massive input volatility spot of the week, right? Imagine you were doing projections, and were super good at it, and were weighing all the relevant info like this game only having a 40-point over/under — how confident would you be in all those inputs? I can’t imagine Vegas is even confident in that 40-point over/under. If Andy Dalton is able to run this offense in a functional way, and it highlights that Bryce Young was the problem — which in some respects should be the default given it took only two weeks or the former No. 1 overall pick to get benched, which has to comment on how things looked in August and the whole offseason — what could that mean? Well, Dalton’s about to turn 37, so first thing is he could be washed. But in his big action in Week 3 last year, he threw 58 times in Seattle for 361 yards in a 37-27 loss where the Panthers’ offense stretched its legs a little bit. Dave Canales is no doubt looking to defend his decision in a similar way as Frank Reich seemed to want to showcase Dalton in that game last year (Young was hurt, obviously). I’m kind of expecting a massive pass rate here and will be taking the over in this game for Stealing Lines later today.
Adam Thielen had a big day in that Week 3 game, but for me the big upside plays here are obviously Diontae Johnson and then Xavier Legette, because to me he’s shown some real potential and Jonathan Mingo is just bad at football. Legette’s still splitting routes with Mingo in that No. 3 role, to be clear, but Davis Mattek and I threw him on an Underdog Pick’em slip as a longshot TD scorer on his YouTube show yesterday, and stuff like that seems like a fun way to leverage this uncertainty. You’d have to be in a really tough spot to consider starting him in fantasy.
I also want to mention Ja’Tavion Sanders here, and while he lost some routes in Week 2, he does seem like another potential upside beneficiary from the Dalton switch, as a stash for deeper TE Premium leagues.
The volatility here is on Brock Bowers again, where it’s possible he could just need the best TE projection this week, and perhaps meaningfully so.
There’s also volatility with the Raiders’ RB roles, as I detailed in Signals this week. Alexander Mattison had the Week 1 routes, but Zamir White was a focal point in Week 2. Mattison got the short TD but did little else, and it’s possible White again gets a lot of work in a good matchup here.