Input Volatility, Week 9
Input Volatility, Week 9
Quick game-by-game thoughts
Last night’s game started out as one of the most boring games you’ll ever see. I’ve been arguing for a few weeks now in a few different places that the NFL’s product is much better this year than people are letting on, but you wouldn’t have known that in the first half last night. It was brutal.
It was also an outlier this season, which is kind of the point. We’re seeing less of those games, and that’s been fantastic from a viewer’s perspective. Among the absurdity of that half of football, we did have a moment for something exciting to happen, but when Malachi Corley had a walk-in touchdown, he dropped the ball before the goal line.
It’s so hard for me to understand this one. It’s such a massive blunder, and it’s happened so many times before, that it really shocks me. I understand the idea that athletes in all sports make mental mistakes, and that those can happen when they are especially excited. A wide receiver might be more likely to drop a ball right to him, when he’s wide open, as he has that split second to think about what he’s going to do after the catch, and loses concentration.
But this isn’t a dropped pass. There’s not a skill requiring focus here. One unique thing I saw earlier this year in my Washington Huskies’ loss at Rutgers was a blocked field goal where a player on the sideline ran onto the field to celebrate before the ball had been covered up. It was still a live ball after the block, and he got penalized, and the personal foul gave Rutgers a first down where they went on to score a touchdown on the drive. It was something you don’t see often, but there’s really no reason you don’t when you consider just how many people are on the sideline and how hyped guys are naturally going to get over a big play like that. You can understand that he thought the play was essentially dead after the kick was blocked, rather than understanding it still needed to be recovered as a loose ball.
But it doesn’t happen often, because it’s not actually that hard when you understand the rules of the game to keep yourself planted on the sideline. You understand the boundary, and you’re not in the play, and you can get excited but you don’t run onto the field. My point is vast numbers of players who are not in the game are able to respect the areas in which they can and cannot get excited.
What is it about being in the game, and having the ball in your hand, and running into the end zone — and the sample of that specific circumstance is so much smaller where this issue could arise, yet we see this blunder relatively often! — that causes these guys to not just make absolutely sure they are in the all-important end zone before they let go of the football?! I realize I’m slowly morphing into a boomer, but this one is in no way a boomer take. It’s indisputably moronic! Obviously I’ve never experienced what these guys are experiencing running into the end zone, but I’ve played tons of sports, and there’s always a “play until the whistle” mentality, and I mean just absolutely without question there’s a “protect the football until you’re definitely sure you’re in the end zone” thing that’s more natural to me from a competitor’s standpoint than even the idea that I need to stay on the sideline before I start celebrating. I mean, the blocked FG thing makes way more sense to me, that someone would make that error. You’re not playing, and you’re hyped. When you’re playing, and you get the ball, your one job is to protect the football and try to get it into the end zone. How do guys keep voluntarily dropped the football right before they cross the plane? We gotta get some kind of investigation on this.
Anyway, the game last night of course shifted in the second half, at least a bit, especially as Garrett Wilson decided to take over with two one-handed catches for touchdowns, including one of the very best ones you will ever see. That’s the dude we thought we were going to get from Week 1, and even after the acquisition of Davante Adams — who also played much better last night, and returned from a concussion scare to score a game-sealing TD — it’s clear that Wilson is not going anywhere. He’s too talented.
Lots to discuss about that game on Monday, including C.J. Stroud really struggling of late, and he missed multiple throws that were also hard for me to understand. The line play has been bad, and the receivers are all hurt, but Stroud is also playing poorly.
But we’ll save the whole recap for Monday. Today, we talk about the rest of this week’s games. As always, I offer these considerations solely because you guys have asked, and because I might have a thought about a different part of a range of outcomes in some cases, relative to what you’re seeing elsewhere. I don’t offer these thoughts because I think they will be explicitly great predictions, and it’s basically just me going game-by-game and throwing out what hits me.
Cowboys at Falcons
Definitely some volatility at RB for Dallas this week, as Rico Dowdle returns after missing last week with an illness, and Dalvin Cook made his debut last week behind Ezekiel Elliott. I guess what’s slightly confusing to me is how the team had already been clear Cook would be active in advance of the news Dowdle wouldn’t be able to play, which doesn’t seem to me like Dowdle has somehow fallen out of favor, but while Cook didn’t exactly look good, I’m curious if he still has a role in his second active game. Or maybe he’s just deactivated and they saw enough. The range is wide for him. My guess, though? It’s more likely the seven touches he got last week were limited because it was his first game than the market seems to believe. I’m not buying he’s definitely the RB3. It wouldn’t shock me if he got the same number of touches as Dowdle this week, though I think that would be a mistake after how he looked last week. As I wrote last week, I think they signaled they are looking for him to bring something to their RB room they feel they aren’t getting. As I also wrote, that seems unlikely to manifest, based on his profile. Maybe they saw enough last week; maybe they didn’t, and also he somehow looks better.
Things are pretty clear with Atlanta. The Kyle Pitts big plays and limited routes stuff I talked about this week are something to watch, for sure. Micah Parsons being out on the other side is a boost for Atlanta.
Broncos at Ravens
I’m at the point with Javonte Williams where I think his projections are just going to artificially juice his actual range. It’s mostly downside. I do think this matchup bodes well for a surprisingly valuable receiving line, but those are never guaranteed. But I’m open to playing him here with the hopes he catches five or so passes, and then is able to compile something like 80 total yards. But the big plays are just not coming, and the TD equity is lower for a lead back than I think any projection is going to have to necessarily assume. In other words, I don’t think Javonte has an actual probability of scoring that will reflect what his usage would suggest he might. It doesn’t help that the Ravens are an incredibly difficult run defense. Proceed with caution.
The Ravens are more beatable through the air, though this could just be a tough road game for a rookie QB after a fantastic start last week.
Lamar Jackson is banged up, but returned to practice today and will play. We might see a little more Derrick Henry than usual. Keaton Mitchell could also make his debut, and it’ll be interesting if the explosive youngster is used a little to spell Henry on rushing downs (while Justice Hill presumably remains the favorite on passing downs). Mitchell was a revelation last year for a short stint before tearing his ACL.
Whether Diontae Johnson even plays adds some volatility to projections. I’ve made my position pretty clear that he is unlikely to be a big producer, but these things are always uncertain, and I’m both as confident as I feel is reasonable and also still pretty unsure overall. People keep messaging me with specific notes like he’s great against man coverage and the Ravens face a lot of man, and I think all that is fine and valid. I believe Diontae has real skills; I don’t need to be sold on that. My point is one about weekly ranges of outcomes, team pass volume, whether he can consolidate volume in this offense, and whether his efficiency can be consistently strong enough. I do think he’ll make plays and I think he’ll be more efficient in this offense. I still think the overall stat lines won’t get there consistently enough. As I’ve learned, though, it does sound like the overall perception is similar and his value has cratered anyway. I guess I expected there would be some optimistic analysts, which would at least create the possibility of a sell window, even if selling low. But he seems almost untradeable in my limited experience this week, at which point I do understand some of the points you guys have made; we’re probably not as far apart as it may seem.