Stealing Signals, Week 7, Part 1
Stealing Signals, Week 7, Part 1
Ignore noise; the NFL is the healthiest it's been in years
Can we just talk about how good of a state we’re in with the NFL right now?
Look, I know the RBs scored all the points this week, and the WRs sucked, and some of my teams scored very few fantasy points and I’m sure that’s true for some of you guys, too. The injuries are mounting, as well, and that’s really rough. Week 7 was a weird one, but we are absolutely missing the forest for the trees.
The NFL rules right now. People love to say the NFL is a terrible product, and after Week 2 my subtitle for Stealing Signals started with “Football’s not dying,” because there was so much doom and gloom. That was a month ago!
At the time, I wrote about how we’re waiting for more good coaches, and better schemes, and that offensive counterpunches were mostly known. I don’t think I necessarily had that right, because I’ll explain later how my thinking has evolved to worry a little less about scheme and a little more about talent. But in the meantime, scoring has picked up drastically — in Week 2, the average NFL team scored fewer than 20 points (average game under 40, which is really bad), but in the time since we’ve had a couple weeks (Weeks 5 and 6) where the average team was up over 24 and the average game approached 50. There was a slight downturn this week, but everyone has mostly just stopped talking about how the sport is broken because scoring picked up.
And I can say, watching all the games front to back yesterday in that new viewing system I wrote about last week that so many of you commented on (went great again this week!), that yes there were some truly boring games like MIA-IND where it seemed like both teams were completely lost, but that served as a reminder that we’ve had full weeks and months and maybe even seasons where that seemed to be the norm, and it has absolutely become rarer. A couple years ago, I was smashing unders on game totals over at Stealing Lines; I’ve been hammering overs this year, since about Week 2, and finding a ton of success (important note: over/unders have adjusted upward on a macro level to account for the environment shift, so don’t take this as major advice in terms of future betting opportunities).
And yes, we all hate injuries, but there are so many things that are good about the NFL right now, on a game-by-game level. People love to complain about penalties, but the expedited replay system that began last year is phenomenal, and because they didn’t make a huge fuss of it and mostly did it under cover of darkness, it’s improved the product without letting any of the usual suspects give a bunch of bad faith takes on it. We just see it in practice, and it works, and who is going to say that’s an issue?
I have complained for years that the NFL inherently does not understand its sport, and makes horrendous decision after horrendous decision mostly driven by public relations expectations, rather than any type of forward-thinking analysis of how things will actually play out and what actually happens once people get over their typical grumbling about change, since humans hate change generally. But the expedited replay system has run in the face of that; it’s been perfectly executed, and for the betterment of the sport, and the NFL deserves praise for it.
Of course the NFL has deserved a ton of the criticism I referenced, over the years, from everything as minor as catch rule shenanigans to the major issues like their horrendous approach to very real domestic abuse issues, only doling out punishment if public sentiment or video evidence demanded it. It’s also only gotten more popular, as people line up to complain about the product. And there’s stuff they’ve gotten criticism on unfairly — the grumbling about change — that has still moved the league in a positive direction.
I absolutely love where we’re at with player safety rules. What an accomplishment to see this initiative through. Guys are embracing those huge helmets, not worried about fashion. I see more of them every week; De’Von Achane was rocking one this week in his return from a concussion, which was awesome.
But in terms of player safety rules, that stuff has been met with constant complaints, with stuff like the body weight rule on roughing the passer being a particularly powerful magnet for bad faith takes. It’s fun to complain, but years like 2017 are a fucking disaster, when the variance of injuries strikes that all-important quarterback position at a high rate. We had a great young talent that the league needed, Andrew Luck, retiring far before his time was up, almost certainly due to the number of hits he was taking.
I dealt with So. Many. Horrible. Takes. About the hip drop rule from meatheads who think they inherently know ball because they played back-up linebacker on the JV team in high school, because I had discussions with people who cover pro rugby in Australia who passed along real research about how this is a relatively new technique and they were able to essentially legislate it out of the NRL. The league did it this offseason despite a ton of criticism, and that has been a complete nonissue through seven weeks in a way that needs to be emphasized. I don’t think there’s been one single issue related to that, other than I guess a couple times I can think of players wanting a flag for it but not getting one, and even I didn’t believe it could be this smooth of a transition. Players just stopped doing that technique, and are still finding ways to tackle — I can’t even tell you how many people told me there would be literally no way to tackle from behind. There are multitude of other options. The game has still been very physical this year. These penalties are always a way, way smaller subset of overall plays than people want to believe. It’s sub-5% of all plays that are impacted and people believe it’s something like 80%.
Broadly, the player safety stuff is an issue where we dealt with years of crap as we worked through the necessary change, but we’re mostly on the other side of, and the sport can still be played, and it’s not flag football, but the league’s players have adjusted and we have a little less of the types of stuff that directly leads to injuries at a super high rate. There will always be a gladiator component inherent in football, but this is a sport, not an actual war of attrition.
But of all the ways the NFL is in a good place right now, the biggest thing is subtle. It’s what I alluded to earlier when I said the offensive counterpunches aren’t so much scheme, as I’d originally thought, as they are about execution. And execution is about talent. The way the NFL is being played right now, the best players have the best chance to impact the games. It’s not a perfect scenario in that regard, but you look around the league and you see so many examples of it.
Start at quarterback. What we’ve seen in 2024 is that the QBs we knew had necessary skills to play the position — particularly, diagnosing defenses and winning with your mind a little bit — are finding ways. More to the point, the ones we had real worries about that exact stuff aren’t able to be hidden. Bryce Young and Will Levis and Daniel Jones have been awful. Deshaun Watson is gone, thank god, but it’s worth reiterating once again that he’s been awful at the quarterback position for two years now.
Of the rookie QBs, one I liked particularly due to a cheap cost because I thought scheme fit could elevate was Bo Nix, but he’s really struggled. I’m still holding out a little hope there, but he’s coming off maybe his worst game given the different situations he’s been in, and it’s such a contrast to the superstars that went 1-2-3 in the draft that are playing like it. Jayden Daniels’ elite passing profile from college is translating and Anthony Richardson’s lack of one can’t be hidden by a great coach. The Vegas QBs have sucked, as expected, despite having maybe the greatest rookie TE ever. Even Sam Darnold, everyone’s favorite counterpoint, has shown real cracks the past couple weeks, and there’s real reason to question him going forward.
Having a great scheme does still help; it’s not like some switch flipped and everything I was writing after Week 2 doesn’t even matter anymore. But what’s been clear to me since I last discussed this, as we get further into the season, is that the trend at the QB position this year has been one about true talent manifesting. Other than maybe Patrick Mahomes, who is hilariously the betting favorite for MVP while playing some of the worst ball of his career, what we’re seeing is QBs mostly playing like their profiles would predict. Defenses are more multiple, and more chaotic, and they throw more things at offenses on a down-to-down basis, taking on more risk to try to generate turnovers and those sorts of things. Their response since the rules of the sport favored offense too far has been pretty awesome from a game theory perspective, and yet that type of chaos necessarily creates opportunity, and we’re seeing the best of the best calmly identify the cracks in the armor more and more.
Someone who may not make a ton of sense to reference here but showed this in Week 7 was Jared Goff, particularly on his seam vertical to Amon-Ra St. Brown, as pre-snap Greg Olsen was discussing how the Vikings were showing a Cover 0 blitz, “but now it’s just a question of who drops and who goes,” right as the ball was snapped and… basically everyone came. Goff’s first option in his progression was to his left, but he quickly identified that the presnap look was real and came back to his vertical to get the ball out on a relatively quick time to throw which got the ball to ARSB before a rotating corner could get over from behind him, resulting in a long TD because of processing and high-level play. Here’s a clip, complete with Olsen’s commentary (make sure you watch the end zone angle).
And similarly, I think we’re seeing that at other positions. It’s always been the case that elite talent wins, no one denies that, but it’s more the case right now than ever, and that frankly rules. It’s awesome for fantasy, and it’s awesome for the sport that the very best players aren’t being “taken away” in certain matchups and those things, because that’s not how defense is played anymore (or at least right now). You guys know about the trend of No. 1 receiving weapons dominating their offenses more in 2023 than we’d seen in almost a decade, because I wrote about that in February and reference it often. I haven’t looked at that data for 2024 yet but there is tons of anecdotal evidence that the way to beat certain defenses — particularly in the secondary — has been elite skill. I mean, Malik Nabers dominating right away is maybe the best anecdote there, but Justin Jefferson and the way A.J. Brown is playing — the Eagles annoyingly limit his volume with a run-heavy approach, but went to him on key downs again this week and he just keeps winning — and what Nico Collins was doing before his injury (and how that’s impacted C.J. Stroud and the Texans since), is all so fascinating.
The way I think about it now is these offenses are very clear in their intent. It’s clear who the passing game wants to get the ball to. I loved fantasy a decade ago when it used to be that way, and guys could run massive target shares, but eventually spread offenses and three-WR sets made that more difficult. Except now we’re moving back, and it’s just so clear to me when watching some of these teams who the focal points are, which is in a lot of cases a pair of downfield weapons and sometimes a dynamic RB as a third weapon, like in Minnesota or how the Dolphins set up before their injuries, or what the Jets look like going forward, etc. We’re back to this world of a couple key names in a passing game and teams finding ways to get their best guys the ball. Secondary pieces pop up with good games now and again, but it feels easier to pick out what is Noise and what is actual Signal. Honestly, I feel like I’ve been really good at that this year, in this column, if I may allow myself a moment to brag. I’ve always covered a ton of stuff, and I will always have misses, but I guess I felt the weight of misses more in past years?
Anyway, over the past few years, the evolution of the sport has been pretty depressing, honestly. What we saw in 2022 and 2023 sucked! Defenses made it their focal point to take away explosives, and turn offenses into boring, clock-chewing behemoths that needed to move slow and methodically. In 2022, that first season, we set decades-long records for both rush and pass volume, as individual teams realized defenses were no longer trying to take things away and forcing them to do certain things, and they just went to the same low-percentage options way too much.
The solution at the time was that offenses needed to be willing to attack certain coverage looks more, and not just accept the rushing attempt, or short pass. Here in 2024, we’re still seeing some teams do that, often out of necessity, like the Dolphins trying to run out the clock starting in about the second quarter, because they didn’t trust their pass game. Unfortunately, Raheem Mostert coughed up a costly fumble in their own territory and that was the moment a floundering Colts’ offense needed.
Games like that — where one side is playing suboptimally while the other struggles — are fewer and further between right now. We’re seeing offensive gameplans that attack more, and are perhaps taking on more risk, as at times we’re seeing turnovers rise. That’s good! We should be seeing more turnovers after a multi-year period of scoring being down, as offenses ratchet up the risk because the cost of a failed possession is lower. (To be clear, that doesn’t mean you just give away points with a pick six or something, but particularly on aggressive throws downfield, and in bad down-and-distance spots like third- or even second-and-long.)
I know this is a weird point this week, because the top players didn’t really score. But the NFL is becoming a fun sport again, right now. I’m loving seeing the best players decide the games. It also makes our job of predicting easier when the intent is laid bare, or feels like it is to a greater degree. Ignore what you’re hearing from doomsayers; the NFL is the healthiest it’s been in years.
Let’s get to the games. As always, you can find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and NFL Pro. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Broncos 33, Saints 10
Key Stat: Mason Tipton — 83% routes, 9 targets, 122 air yards
The Broncos ran away with one on Thursday night, and we finally got the Javonte Williams (14-88-2, 3-3-23) ceiling game, though I wish I could sit here and tell you everything with this offense looked better. The Saints’ rush defense is really poor right now, and while it was great to see Javonte playing a ton, not ceding much to Audric Estime (5-29) or Jaleel McLaughlin (4-35), he wasn’t exactly decisive and explosive-looking, as much as the holes were big and he was capable of getting what was there. Still, we’ll take it. It’s been a slow start obviously, and converting his first two touchdowns of the season and totaling 111 yards is good stuff. McLaughlin got loose for a 21-yard run in this one, looking better than he has most of the year, but it doesn’t seem like that’s going to hit. Estime lost a fumble in the fourth quarter which wound up being the final Broncos’ offensive snap before kneeldowns, so it didn’t impact his playing time in this one but could hurt him going forward. Williams is probably the only Broncos’ back worth rostering right now, because you get that advantage of the snaps. That’s the one thing I will victory lap a little here is I emphasized that even when he was really bad last year, Javonte was the clear lead back, and profile-wise he fits what Sean Payton wants (size, ability to play on all three downs). And as I’ve mentioned he’d been between 35 and 40 snaps every game so far (had 41 here for a season high), and when you’re out there that much, you have the potential to benefit from something like a really poor run defense.
Bo Nix missed a couple throws early, including one that he dropped in between two wide open receivers where he seemed conflicted about which one to throw to.
That just can’t happen when something is that open. It’s a blown play by the defense. Later, Nix was saved by a dropped INT, and had multiple other throws coming up short, where I started wondering if arm strength is a real concern. The price on him was very cheap, and he won the job and does appear to be a 17-game starter, so I’m not giving up on some of the best ball stuff. He finished this game 16-for-26 for only 164 yards, but did rush for 75 yards on 10 carries, and his rushing continues to help his fantasy potential a little bit. But this is one where in trying to find some value that the market was missing, I am starting to believe I missed and the market was just right that the player has limited potential.
Courtland Sutton (0-0-0) wasn’t even targeted, while Troy Franklin (6-5-50) took another step forward and remains a guy to be really considering adding to the end of benches. I know I just had harsh words for Nix, but Franklin is a three-year early declare with great collegiate production metrics that had him as a back-end top-10 rookie before draft capital issues when he slid to the very beginning of Round 4. I was high on him pre-draft, and you need to be open to betting on talent in these situations; there are scenarios where Nix maybe plays a little better or he overcomes the situation and is very good, but the positive thing right now is he’s already earning more playing time and volume. He’s not the very best option out there, but if you’re looking to add some upside to your WR room, he’s a guy to look at. Devaughn Vele (3-1-20) had a couple plays called back by injury, but is a less-exciting rookie who is also playing a decent amount. No one else in this passing game is relevant right now.
With the Saints rolling out a preseason offense, Spencer Rattler struggled. Bub Means (5-3-37) didn’t look nearly as good as last week, while Mason Tipton (9-6-45) saw a bunch of volume. Cedrick Wilson’s (7-6-57-1) production largely came in garbage time, including a TD with under two minutes remaining from Jake Haener. Four of Wilson’s six catches came in the final six minutes of the game. It was Means and Tipton who were over the 80% route rates as the main guys with Rashid Shaheed now out for the season and Chris Olave also out. Tipton seemed to be that vertical threat in the Shaheed role with 122 air yards.
Kendre Miller (6-36, 3-2-1) got some first-quarter snaps in this game, but not a lot of work until garbage time. He had a bad drop that Dennis Allen annoyingly mentioned when asked about his play in the postgame press conference. Alvin Kamara (7-10, 7-6-14) looked rough in this one, only gaining 24 yards on 13 touches, and seems to be aging a year every two weeks at this point. Jamaal Williams (3-17) had a 13-yard carry but isn’t much. Miller is definitely a name to watch after getting through his first game action healthy.
Juwan Johnson (6-3-18) got a lot of volume, but still shared routes with Foster Moreau (2-2-38) in a frustrating TE room.
Signal: Troy Franklin — 6 targets, 52 air yards, 35% TPRR (strong prospect earning more work lately, worth a stash in deeper leagues); Mason Tipton — 83% routes, 9 targets, 122 air yards (seemed to be in the Rashid Shaheed role); Kendre Miller — mostly played garbage time, but looked OK and got through his first work healthy, while Alvin Kamara struggled, so Miller remains a name to watch
Noise: Javonte Williams — 2 TDs (great to see him produce in a good matchup and given his lead role, but this wasn’t super predictive of an impending breakout); Cedrick Wilson — 4 of his 6 catches and his TD all came in the final six minutes of the game (garbage time)