Stealing Signals, Week 8, Part 1
Stealing Signals, Week 8, Part 1
Scoring has risen, Elite TE check-in, and early Sunday games
What an electric week of football so far. It’s so weird there were no byes here in Week 8, right in the middle of the NFL season, and the NFL didn’t have a London game for this week, or a second Monday night game, which would have made some sense. Instead, we got the full 13 Sunday games in the two normal timeslots, with only the standard TNF, SNF, and MNF primetime triad outside that window.
So we’ve had 15 games so far this week, and of them, a whopping 13 combined for at least 40 total points, a sort of low benchmark for NFL games if you’ve ever perused over/unders. Scoring earlier this season was at such a nadir that we actually did get several over/unders down in the thirties, including some as low as the 35-36 range, but they’ve shift back up dramatically in recent weeks. Just a few weeks ago, games reaching up around 50 in Vegas were fewer and further between, as well. I imagine we’ll continue to see more after seven broke that 50-point barrier this week, and another three hit 47 on the nose.
NFL teams are scoring points again. As of right now, the average team game features 22.7 points. Last year, that number was 21.8, and it was 21.9 in 2022, which represent the two down years we’ve recently experienced. Nearly a full point increase is pretty huge; the average in 2021 was 23.0 points, and setting aside the bonanza that was 2020 (24.8), the NFL record is 23.4 in 2013. We’ve only actually hit 23.0 per game, per team, five times in NFL history.
Now consider that after Week 3 of this very season, we were at 21.1 points. We were three-quarters of a point below the debacle of the past two seasons, and people were rightly questioning the sport. In just five weeks since, the season average has risen 1.6 points. Over just those five weeks, the average is 23.6 points per game. We now have three separate weeks — 5, 6, and 8 — which have hit at least 24.4, or a game total averaging 48.8, up around that upper bound for NFL over/unders.
That’s a ton of numbers to be throwing at you right off the jump, but it’s exciting. If you look at full-season stats for a reason why, you’ll still see the effects of the first three weeks — passing is down, while rushing is up, and that started in a major way in September. In Week 7, we got another one of those weeks, and scoring dipped back to 21.6. Obviously there’s going to be weekly variance with these things when we’re only talking about 14-16 games per week. But this week, and the past month, has just felt so encouraging.
For the most part, offenses are willing to take risks again, and some are paying off. There’s undoubtedly been more run/pass balance recently than the full-season numbers will tell you, and scoring has followed. And then we got some exciting game environments, as well.
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders pulled out one of the few low-scoring games with a Hail Mary for the ages.
Jameis Winston and the Browns scored to take the lead for good on a 39-yard TD strike with 59 seconds remaining.
The Dolphins looked like they are back, but they left the door open with a miscue for a safety in the third quarter, and the Cardinals stormed back, hitting a game-winning field goal as time expired.
The Packers also won on a game-winning field goal as time expired, after the Jaguars had erased a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to tie the game with under two minutes remaining.
The Jets refused to play fast against an inferior opponent, also leaving the door open, and the Patriots came back and took the lead for good with 22 seconds remaining.
The Texans held off two Colts’ possessions with a late 3-point lead, to win by a field goal.
The Falcons survived a Hail Mary attempt from the Bucs to win by 5.
The 49ers held off a late Cowboys’ charge on SNF that saw Dallas take over with about three minutes remaining down 6, but not able to advance the ball and make a real game of it.
It was a crazy week, and unlike last week, a ton of the top scorers were QBs and WRs and even — gasp — TEs. Kyle Pitts scored twice, and George Kittle had another big day, while Travis Kelce rebounded. Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, and Dalton Kincaid all found paydirt as well. Trey McBride was the only “Elite TE” who didn’t score a TD, but he caught 9-of-11 targets for 124 yards.
This doesn’t fix everything for that whole cohort, but we did see good things. Then among the other TEs, David Njoku looked like a monster, and Evan Engram found paydirt with a phenomenal game-tying score late, as two of the key mid-round guys that were drafted around Brock Bowers — whose 5-5-58 qualified as a down week, which just speaks to how high the bar has already raised — in a trio of undervalued targets whose ADPs were held down by the elites.
And then Cade Otton had two touchdowns, and Tucker Kraft scored again, which highlighted more late-round TE scoring as well. Otton I feel good about; I could have emphasized him in Stealing Signals a little more last week, but hopefully you caught that I had him in “Biggest Signals” ranked over both Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer, and then I more explicitly said in Input Volatility that “frankly I’d expect Cade Otton to be the favorite to out-produce all three (WRs) from a targets and receptions standpoint.” Otton wound up leading all TEs on a big week for the position, and also out-producing all three of the Bucs’ WRs who were in the discussion last week — combined.
Overall, the TE position has come roaring back, with now 11 guys having played at least four games and averaging double-digit PPR points. The top six scorers in points per game are four of the seven “elite” profiles, plus Bowers and Njoku. Kraft and Otton — as well as Engram — are all right on the cusp, with Dallas Goedert and Cole Kmet falling to back-end top-10 status after their fast starts. For Kraft, 5 TDs are buoying him; only three TEs have more than 3. For Otton, we’re talking at a time where he comes off a 29-point game, but could face more defensive attention in the future.
I’m not not trying to suggest that the Elite TE thing hasn’t been a disaster, because it has — it’s been one of my biggest misses of the year, if not the single biggest — but even in a bottom-end season-long outcome, we’re starting to see some sparks of the thesis. In terms of analyzing the process, part of what’s going to confuse people is how the group just outside those top-seven “elite” profiles were among the strongest “best of the rest” profiles we’ve ever seen at the position — I made this specific point multiple times in the offseason, including in the TE Tiers article, where I wrote glowingly about Bowers, Engram, and Njoku, and said “In addition to the top-seven TEs being among the very best we’ve ever seen, those three names are probably the best TE8-TE11 range we’ve ever seen” — and the way it’s playing out, that secondary TE8-TE11 group is really hitting, specifically driven by Bowers. That’s going to make the whole “Elite TE” thing difficult to parse because people have loved emphasizing how Elite TE has failed (and it has), but it’s important to note that it’s failed for reasons that don’t invalidate the process.
It’s funny to read my write-up of Bowers at that link, because I did two paragraphs, one starting with “The upside thesis for Bowers is maybe a bit tricky,” which had three more sentences of concerns, and then the other with “And yet, the upside thesis for Bowers is maybe a bit obvious,” and added seven more sentences, writing he “is a budding superstar,” and in a comparison with Pitts that he “might be not just better but quite a bit better,” and closing with “…and is the next great NFL TE,” so he’s just this guy I’m constantly wondering how I wasn’t even higher on.
I think my biggest process frustration about the whole Elite TE thing is emphasizing those seven to such a degree when this guy loomed. I mostly stand by my evaluation of the seven at the top, and we know TEs do carry risk, and what this week for a guy like LaPorta emphasized is how it’s all been a team context thing, not a talent thing. The Jameson Williams breakout and increased reliance on their super-effective run game has rendered LaPorta a less-necessary third passing weapon.
Andrews’ production lately is that same point about team and not player skill, and we can’t know the team usage. I was off Andrews specifically because it felt like the Ravens “deprioritized” him in this system, but even I did not take it nearly as far as it’s gone, and I thought he’d still find production because he’s so talented, and frankly all of that has been very specifically right. Then for someone like Kincaid, the specific take was that his talent was in question but there was a ceiling, and that’s just failed to materialize. But I also think it was accurate; I’ll write tomorrow how Khalil Shakir’s usage has had a real impact on Kincaid’s production not approaching a ceiling, and how that’s not at all a mistake by the Bills since Shakir has been very effective at what he does and it wouldn’t make sense to be giving those shallow targets to the less explosive TE, but how a world where Kincaid was getting those additional targets obviously could have existed because that volume does exist in the offense and it was never clear (to me at least) that it was so definitively going to be all Shakir’s work.
Anyway, this is the thing about the whole Elite TE thesis, and how that next group fit in. It was always about the individual profiles. I felt like the top of the position had some truly unique talent and situational bets this year, and several in that arbitrary “Elite TE” group of the first seven have really struggled in the ways TEs uniquely can (there’s always skill and environment concerns at all positions, but the ways TEs can have usage that completely takes them out of the passing game is rough, and has been a growing trend).
But to me, those individual results haven’t changed that we did and do mostly know where the talent lies. I think Kraft is a real unique one from the late rounds where the talent breakout may be a legit reminder that young guys can become stars. And Kmet is doing his thing. But guys like Otton and Goedert have been buoyed by teammate injuries, and anyway there’s just so much nuance to all of the TE stuff and it’s definitely something I’ve chewed on a ton. I’ll have so many thoughts about it going forward, but the point for today is one of those thoughts shouldn’t be, “You can’t pay up for Elite TEs” when Bowers the savior is going to be TE1 next year.
Ultimately, at a position like this, it’s all about the individual profiles, and they will swing perception. That’s why you saw semantical fighting over whether Kittle even “counts” as an Elite TE, which really emphasizes that a lot of the Elite TE discussion is among fantasy analysts about who is right, and that’s all about how it’s defined, and little of it is about actual truth-seeking and learning lessons we can carry into new seasons and new landscapes. In that way, it’s not dissimilar from RB, because the truth is our perception of RB as a whole tends to come down to the performance of the dozen or so backs who have the potential to be elite difference-makers. But I’ll save that whole conversation for another day.
Knowing there were no byes this week, I wrote an extra long intro to Input Volatility last week in part so I could get into the games a little quicker today. We still managed to fire off too long of an intro this morning, while I was trying to just work in casually. It’s a sickness.
Let’s get to the games. As always, you can find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and NFL Pro. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Rams 30, Vikings 20
Key Stat: Puka Nacua — 9 targets, 105 air yards, 65% routes, 41% TPRR, 1.08 wTPRR
This game opened with a bang, as the two teams combined for four straight 70-yard TD drives in the first 20 minutes of game time. Minnesota seemed to be moving it especially easy on the game’s first and third drives, with Sam Darnold well protected and only needing a single third-down conversion on either drive, and even that was a 3rd-and-1 where they just did a sneak. But for Minnesota, the third-down offense is where it became a problem. They’d go three-and-out on the next two drives, and then settle for field goals twice in the second half, and on those two drives combined they converted six first downs but went 1-for-3 on third downs. And then they added another three-and-out after that, and then lost on the safety in the end zone that was a clearly missed facemask penalty. For the game, Minnesota basically never made it to third downs, but went 2-for-7 when they did, and again one of those was the 3rd-and-1 sneak early on. It’s not necessarily crazy to see a team struggle on third downs, but it’s gotta be rare to only have two third-down conversions but also four different scoring drives of at least 8 plays and 50+ yards. In the end, the Vikings only ran 49 plays, because they were either moving hyper-efficiently or failing to convert on third down. The Rams, for their part, were able to convert two touchdown drives in the second half, and the game stood 28-20 as a result, when the infamous safety occurred.
The big story for the Rams was Puka Nacua (9-7-106, 2-5), who returned to a massive role right from the jump, when he got the team’s first two targets and three on the first drive. He wasn’t in a full role yet at just 65% routes, but his 41% TPRR tells the story, which is that in this game, he was the dude ADP suggested he would be, the clear first option in the passing game even with Cooper Kupp (8-5-51-1) on the field. Kupp did wind up with a solid day of his own, but he ran more routes and had two catches for 36 yards on the team’s final real possession, before a punt. That’s not invalidated production or anything, but it’s interesting in the sense that for most of the game Nacua was far out-pacing him. Going forward, I do expect these guys to work off each other, but Nacua’s role in this game was quite interesting.
With those two back in, Demarcus Robinson (3-2-35-2) moved back to his clear No. 3 role, and scored two touchdowns as the forgotten man. There’s some Signal to his production coming with the other guys in the lineup, which is mostly that he isn’t good enough to win routes unless he’s on the field with two forces of nature that tilt coverage toward them like some kind of magnets, and open up space elsewhere. It doesn’t mean he’ll be expected to produce this type of game again soon; his TD streak carrying from late last year isn’t going to keep up forever, and he’s not adding much to the TDs anyway.
Tutu Atwell (2-1-18) and Tyler Johnson (1-1-6) returned to bit roles, while Colby Parkinson (2-2-17) was quiet but still had his routes as the lead TE.
Even on a short week, Kyren Williams (23-97, 7-5-19-1) and Aaron Jones (19-58, 2-2-37) dominated snaps in this game. For Williams, it’s not exactly new, although Blake Corum (4-9, 1-1-9) continues to get a little work. For Jones, it’s rendered Ty Chandler (no touches) pretty unusable.
Justin Jefferson (9-8-115) remains a football god. Because there was a point in time where I didn’t have him ranked extremely high (he was my WR3 for most of August, actually above Ja’Marr Chase who went higher, so this truly was a point in time), I get to routinely hear about how I was down on him, as if I questioned his talent. If this is how you remember it, please kindly note it was concern about his QBs, and especially a rookie QB who got injured and isn’t playing. That’s not to say the take was correct, but I had several WRs very close, and it’s a bit exhausting to hear I didn’t realize the best WR in the NFL was the best WR in the NFL every now and then. He rose within that tier for me after it became clear the No. 2 QB was suddenly a pretty big upgrade in Nick Mullens, in terms of knowing that Mullens could get him the ball, because he did it last year. Darnold has obviously been very solid, but that wasn’t clear and you’re thinking through contingencies and how the season could play out, and anyway, I still think Justin Jefferson is absurd, as I’ve always thought. The catch he made on the sideline showed his otherworldly concentration, and we had Vikings’ reporter Arif Hasan on Ship Chasing during the game and he was telling us about how Jefferson is a 1-in-10,000 genetic freak in that he doesn’t have a dominant eye but rather is dominant in both eyes, which just feels like it explains a lot.
Beyond Jefferson, Jordan Addison (3-2-22) struggled, Jalen Nailor (4-2-16) got a few more targets, and the TDs went random places with Josh Oliver (2-2-30-1) and Trent Sherfield (1-1-10-1) both scoring. Addison’s obviously the most notable name, and I don’t really have much by way of explanation, other than Darnold only throwing 25 passes total. Addison’s routes were strong; he just didn’t earn many targets in this one.
Arif also was on for the Christian Darrisaw knee injury, and the Vikings lost their left tackle for the year. He shared that was a huge blow, more so than I would have grasped on my own. It’ll be something to keep an eye on for Minnesota as they try to move forward with this surprisingly fun season.
Signal: Puka Nacua — 41% TPRR, 1.08 wTPRR (used like his first-round draft capital suggested he would be back in August, as the clear top option even with Cooper Kupp in the lineup); Aaron Jones — season-high 92% snaps on short week (team ran relatively few plays, which can lead to snaps consolidation, but Jones is a focal point and it only gets clearer he will be on the field as much as he can handle)
Noise: Demarcus Robinson — 2 TDs (3 targets, 2 receptions, and I don’t buy his TD streak with the two stars in the lineup will keep up forever); Vikings — 49 plays (either moving efficiently or failing to convert third downs all game long)
Eagles 37, Bengals 17
Key Stat: Eagles — (-14.8)% PROE (lowest in Week 8, through Sunday), Bengals — +8.6% PROE (highest)
The Eagles took it to the Bengals in a clash of styles, where we had the lowest and highest PROEs on the week in the same game. By actual pass rate, the Eagles were all the way down at 35.6%, while the Bengals were way up at 70.2%. We got just 20 pass attempts from Philly, and just 20 rushes from Cincinnati.
The Eagles are pretty straightforward with their three-man core, and Saquon Barkley (22-108, 1-1-3) had another 100-yard rushing day but with limited receiving, and Jalen Hurts took all three rushing TDs for the team on the day. Hurts scored twice on tush pushes and once on a sweep. Barkley marched them all the way down there in plus script to set up the last of Hurts’ rushing TDs, and was running very well against run defenses. He’s been very good all year.
A.J. Brown (6-5-84) did more A.J. Brown stuff, including an impressive 3rd-and-16 conversion where the replay showed him glance over his shoulder at the corner letting him go a bit, and feel the zone, and just turn and sit right at the sticks and present himself for a throw. That may have been the route, not an option or read decision, but it felt like a great example of who he is and why he always gets the ball. Hurts fired the pass in between two defenders who were both reasonably close but couldn’t quite converge as Brown had the perfect soft spot. That’s a simple WR thing but something the good ones always get right.
But DeVonta Smith (7-6-85-1) had the play of the day in this one, an over-the-shoulder 45-yard TD on a deep shot. For the most part, Smith was in an underneath role, and even with all those air yards his aDOT only got to 9.6; his other six targets had about 22 air yards. But when you get and hit on the deep shot in addition to the underneath volume, it builds out this really nice receiving line.
Grant Calcaterra (3-3-58) continued to fill in admirably for Dallas Goedert, making a couple big plays. The Eagles have thrown just 35 passes over the past two weeks combined, so the volume hasn’t been there for their key guys of late, but that low of pass volume can’t stick.
The key play for the Bengals was a 4th-and-1 in their own territory down 7 late in the third quarter, and Zac Taylor’s playcall there was pretty awful. On that play, he moved Ja’Marr Chase (11-9-54-1) in motion all over the place, and then tried to get it out to him quickly, but Joe Burrow couldn’t necessarily get it over there quickly enough, and Chase had to stand and wait for the ball for a half second, which happens on those plays a lot. Except on this one, it’s a 4th-and-1, so the defensive back is watching that motion and is clearly looking to come downhill if that’s the maneuver, such that Chase winds up always needing to make a man miss in the backfield, while catching a pass, to have any chance of converting. It’s pretty awful; that’s not a success rate play, it’s a play that when you hit the right defense it can go for 8 easily, or sometimes 20. But you need 1. WR swings almost never go for 1 or 2, it’s chopped down in the backfield or it’s 5+. And while I do like going for it there, it was a massive decision, and the Eagles didn’t even get a first down but were in FG range to push the game to 10 after the turnover on downs.
Chase played well, and it was an alpha usage game with all the different stuff — quick hits, slants, out-breakers, goal line — except he just wasn’t able to get much down the field. Mike Gesicki (8-7-73) was actually the top target downfield, and he made a couple really nice plays. Rookie Jermaine Burton (3-1-41) also had a long reception, and then got an end zone target that was well defended, but he got open and generally looked good playing the ball.
Zack Moss (5-11, 4-4-28) got the start and a couple of quick early touches in this one, but Chase Brown (12-32-1, 4-2-2) still wound up with far more work and a much higher rate of touches per snap, as usual.
Signal: DeVonta Smith — 6 underneath targets totaling 22 air yards plus a deep end zone shot totaling 45 for a well-rounded target distribution; Jermaine Burton — 72 air yards, 40% routes (season highs, and the rookie looked like a viable deep threat)
Noise: Jalen Hurts — 3 rushing TDs (we know he can suck up some of the value from his skill guys, but this was extreme); Eagles — 35 pass attempts over past two weeks (they are leaning hard into the run lately, but this is too extreme to stick)