Breaking down the top WR prospects
Breaking down the top WR prospects
Looking at the per-route picture to talk exciting profiles and red flags
I promised some more prospect stuff this year, and I’ve had a lot of fun digging into it recently, particularly the highly-anticipated WR class. That said, there are some fascinating things I’ve run into from a process-related standpoint that I want to discuss.
I’ve recently written about some of the issues I see with fantasy analysis where it misapplies the aggregate to the specific, taking a league-level approach on some stat and then not really applying it down to the player level with appropriate context. This is, in my estimation, an exceptionally problematic form of analysis, not just a minor issue. The key to all good fantasy analysis is the actionability — how do we apply the information to make better decisions — and the issue I described not only gets that part wrong, it does so by mixing good research with poor conclusions. That is an inherently bigger concern to a consumer than clearly poor analysis through and through, which is more easily discarded. The misapplication of good research on the conclusion level only serves to confuse, and often times misleads.
And it is endemic in the fantasy space. One of the key reasons is finding that actionability is crucial to getting eyeballs on your content. Good research for the sake of learning can set you up to move the needle for winning in fantasy football, but it doesn’t move the needle for clicks and subscriptions. Any editor worth his salt is going to tell that writer to find ways to apply that research on the player level; who are the targets and fades, risers and fallers as we consider this great concept you’ve offered?
But truly finding a good target or a good fade is much, much rarer than the thousands of pieces of fantasy content claiming to do so would lead you to believe. You’re wading through extremely muddy waters to find the real insights there, and sometimes the answer is, “I don’t really have a great application right now, as I’m still considering the ramifications.” It might be months or even years before good research can be properly applied, when a situation arises that hits you in the face with “this is an edge in this spot for these previously established reasons.”
One of the things with my recent NFL posts on TPRR is that they aren’t really TPRR posts at all. I’ve kind of been laughing at myself a bit for that branding, since it’s pretty boring, and I should have given it some kind of flashier name that more easily defined it as deep research. As I’ve written, I just use TPRR as my foundational stat to then discuss each player’s specific profile. In those discussions, I’m considering their usage within their offense, scheme, coaching, their teammate situation, and anything else I deem relevant. It would more accurately be described as a process built from my work with the stats in real time while writing Stealing Signals, and my work with the film while watching nearly all of the NFL games from a given season, a process which then gives me an intimate knowledge of the 32 NFL teams and how I believe they operate and then how that also impacts the players and the stats they put up.
I’m recounting that process because of the realization that I can do none of that for college players. I don’t have any of that real-time research to draw on. During the season, I watch my Washington Huskies, but I otherwise don’t catch a ton of college ball, and I’m often surprised myself when the season winds down and I’ve only seen some of the key teams maybe once, or not even at all. Saturday is just one of the few days of the week where I can spend some time with family and not have my life revolve around football. I’d love to watch more college ball, but it’s just not practical for me as a father of two to follow both the NFL and college football during the season, at the level I’d need to.
And I’d argue you can’t really replicate that if you’re just watching highlights back. Here’s where I’m going with this: While working on this piece you’re reading, I spent considerable time reading through Shawn Siegele’s profiles of each WR in the RotoViz Rookie Guide, and I want to give them a major shoutout. I’ve used this guide each year it’s been out and can safely say this is the best version yet, and a major reason for that is Shawn’s approach.
For each of the rookies (at all positions), Shawn wrote a synopsis that often references how that player was viewed coming into college — a key data point on their journey — and then talks through how their college career progressed. This is the kind of context that you can’t catch by just looking back at a player’s highlights and seeing his style, and I know Shawn plays in some devy leagues and is tracking these college players while they are in college in a way that really informs these writeups.
Understanding what that player was viewed as throughout his college journey — whether he was a late riser, a star all along, or something in between — is the same kind of crucial information that I love to dig into for the NFL. It’s the “long view,” right? Among other things, you can find spots where hype is recent and has ballooned, and the bet is maybe not the one you want to be making. J.J. Zachariason’s Late-Round Prospect Guide is another incredible product that approaches things similarly, and also features fantastic writeups.
As I was considering how to approach my work here, the urge was to do exactly what I said at the top was such a problem. I could rank all these guys by TPRR and then fall victim to the same misapplication of the aggregate to the specific that I’ve written about before. That wouldn’t help you. At the same time, as I’ve always said, I do think there’s useful information to be gleaned by deconstructing the YPRR stat into its component parts, starting with the very stable skill of target earning. And looking at that stuff is probably the best research I can add to the broader discussion of WR prospects, and that’s where I’ve tried to focus my energy.
So this piece is me talking through that TPRR stuff, without the type of context I can apply to it when I discuss NFL players. And yet, I’ve tried to understand some of that from Shawn’s and J.J.’s work.
Alright, let’s jump into some discussion of the specific rookies. I’m going to start today with the 10 projected to receive first- or second-round draft capital over at Grinding The Mocks. I’m off on vacation next week, but want to look at some other names with less-secured draft capital projections before the draft in late April, as well.
These players are not arranged in a ranking other than projected draft capital, as I’m just starting my work on these guys here. One minor note, as always — I’m pulling numbers from PFF because that’s how my spreadsheets are set up, while RotoViz’s numbers come from Sports Info Solutions, and the two sources have meaningfully different routes data, so you might see discrepancies between per-route information I cite versus what you might see in the RotoViz guide. Of course, this is not a major issue if you’re comparing the SIS figures to other SIS figures, or comparing the below PFF stuff to other PFF numbers.
Early-round picks
Marvin Harrison, Jr. (Expected Draft Position: Pick 4.2)
With MHJ, the TPRR profile more or less confirms he’s an elite prospect. He didn’t do much as a true freshman in 2021, because Ohio State still had the trio of future first-round and current NFL WRs we all know about. In 2022, he took off, posting an elite 29.7% TPRR at a very high 14.3-yard aDOT for a 0.85 wTPRR that was bested by just one season across the full college careers of the other nine WRs I’ll discuss below in this early-round picks range (Xavier Worthy had that season).
The kicker? MHJ then took it to another level in 2023, rising to a ridiculous 32.4% TPRR at a still very high 13.1 aDOT for a 0.89 wTPRR. His after-the-target efficiency was strong both seasons, not ridiculous like some collegiate seasons can be, but comfortably over 10 yards per target with 14 TDs in each. I was curious whether the hype was a little more about the way he plays, whereas the numbers might not be this elite, but that just wasn’t true. The way I look at profiles, MHJ is as advertised.
Malik Nabers (EDP: Pick 6.4)
Through this early draft process, I’ve been asked a decent number of times about the interesting UW names, and I’ve been quick to defend Rome Odunze as a very good prospect (I wouldn’t call myself as confident in other UW prospects, for example). I note that because in looking through these numbers, I came to understand why a lot of people still have Nabers a tier or half tier ahead of Odunze.
I wouldn’t say Nabers is on MHJ’s level, either, though. Whereas I usually favor tiers over rankings, the top three WRs feel difficult to tier (Are they all in their own tier? Are they 1A, 1B, 1C?), and it fits a lot better in my mind to just rank them. Nabers is below MHJ but above Odunze, and that’s spoken as someone who loves Odunze.
That’s largely because of Nabers’ final season, where as a third-year player (he was an early declare, while Odunze was not) he elevated to a 29.7% TPRR and 0.80 wTPRR with an elite 12.3 YPT for a monstrous 3.64 YPRR that eclipsed even MHJ’s high season of 3.44. Nabers’ after-the-catch efficiency has been a huge selling point, and it shows up in his best season, while his YPTs over his first two seasons were a little more reasonable, and his TPRRs were good but not great, at 21.4% and 24.0%. But he had important context that I’ll talk about a bit more in the Brian Thomas, Jr. section below; the short is Nabers really dominated Thomas this past year after Kayshon Boutte was in the NFL, and he’d been quite a bit better than Thomas the two years prior, alongside Boutte, as well.