Offseason Stealing Signals, NFC East
Three elite WRs, two top-tier fantasy QBs, and a 2,000-yard rusher walk into a bar
The takes are flying, guys. Social media is full of the kind of confirmation bias that only comes with the first days of training camp. Am I vaguely concerned about my Tank Bigsby position given he’s started in an important role in early camp? Sure. Do I also recognize that it’s being massively overblown because every single person who had a positive opinion on Bigsby is victory lapping a couple minor reports? Yep, that one, too.
I bring up Bigsby because he’s a great example of how to take this early camp news. He reportedly looks good, and is getting a lot of early work, which really shouldn’t be all that surprising. Bhayshul Tuten is a Day 3 rookie who was going to need to work his way into the first-team mix, potentially throughout the regular season. Travis Etienne is the veteran coming off an injury-plagued season, which is another class of player that is going to be treated with some restraint in early camp (somebody seemed really annoyed I didn’t mention Bigsby also had an injury last year, so I guess I’ll mention that, but like, not all injuries are created equal, man).
Then there’s Bigsby, a third-year guy in his prime who even for me projects to be a meaningful factor in the team’s rushing attack. That guy getting a lot of early camp buzz as the lead rusher is a story, but the hype it’s generated is going to burrow into some people’s minds and have them confident he’s the lead back. And he still may be! That’s obviously open. The way I’m reading the early camp stuff is mostly that Etienne may not clearly be the lead, which I thought was a possibility. I don’t think it buries him that he’s not turning a bunch of heads in July, but it’s fair to say it’s not ideal for the Etienne case overall.
But given that, the way I want to play it is not to go draft a bunch of Bigsby — it’s actually to take more Tuten. Even with some early camp buzz and a reduced ADP, the Bigsby thesis is still thin to me. The offensive line is not good, nowhere near Liam Coen’s line in Tampa. Bigsby has a very long way to go to be relevant as a pass catcher. He did have some decent reception volume as a prospect, but his efficiency in the passing game was bad, with YPRRs below 1.0 all three collegiate seasons despite decent TPRRs at times. His offense actually threw to him a bit but he didn’t do anything with it.
The former hasn’t carried over to two years in the NFL, but the latter has, which is to say he’s still inefficient but also the team has just not thrown to him at all, leading to YPRRs below 0.5 in both NFL seasons. He did have some interesting rushing metrics as a prospect, including good evasion stuff that showed up last year. But with a very long way to go as a pass-catcher, his upside path more or less requires him to consolidate the rushing work in a backfield with two other meaningful pieces, and even then the payoff isn’t all that robust unless he scores like 12+ TDs. He’s going to have some games with 15+ carries, and the Bigsby stans are going to make sure you hear about it. But broadly, in a three-way committee behind a bad offensive line, you don’t want to be betting on the TRAP skill set because you’re hyper-confident his spotty efficiency or July depth chart status puts him meaningfully ahead.
But as I said, his early camp emergence does take some shine off Etienne being an interesting early-season play. Etienne actually has some receiving background; he hasn’t been great at the NFL level, but he’s been over a 1.0 YPRR all three seasons, and was over 2.0 in both of his final two college seasons. His YPT meaningfully dipped last year, and I get why people have put him into a box as an inefficient player, but I maintain we don’t know how healthy he was. He’s only 26 years old, and there have been times we’ve talked about 25 as a point of no return for RBs, but that was probably just a period of a few years where the classes were weak and the guys aging out just weren’t good enough, or healthy enough. Maybe Etienne’s health is a limitation, too, but all three of the 2,000-total-yard RBs over the past two years were two-plus years older than him when they did it (Saquon and Henry last year, CMC the year before), so it’s hard to make the case today he’s definitely too old.
Anyway, as I said, if Bigsby is winning the veteran camp battle, it increases the appeal of Tuten, who has an easier path to early playing time as a complement to Bigsby than to the theoretical Etienne upside. There haven’t actually been poor Etienne reports necessarily, but keep an eye out, because an insignificant Etienne clearly improves the Tuten thesis, which is of course the ability to earn backfield share throughout the first half of the season and be the big hit down the stretch.
That was a huge tangent, but those are the kinds of updates we’re getting right now, and the ways I’m seeing people react to them. I think probably with how popular best ball is these days, and how year-round the discussions are, it makes the reactions to actual news that much stronger.
After writing all this, I saw the news on Joe Mixon having a lingering foot issue (as the explanation for why he started on the NFI list), and that’s another huge note. It seems like Nick Chubb is going to have a meaningful role, and then Woody Marks will probably be playing a lot on pass downs. Maybe Mixon will be back sooner than expected, and stay healthy, but that’s a tough two-step to bet on right now. And it’s thin behind him; I wrote about him probably getting a lot of work (but still not being a great play). This new issue definitely cuts into his one major selling point, the workload, and it’s the sort of thing I want to bet against. It also opens up a ton of opportunity to profiles that probably aren’t super likely to capitalize but could be pretty interesting if they did. I’ll be curious if they sign anyone else.
Anyway, I’m off on these current-event discussions, because as I’ve said, I would’ve liked to have all eight of these Offseason Stealing Signals posts written before training camp started. Unfortunately, between doing the deep research behind the projections, and also recording the super fun Establish The Edge podcast series with Mike Leone, that just hasn’t been super practical.
But we’re back today with the fourth division. So far, we’ve hit:
The suddenly intriguing AFC South, including an introduction to the series
Unique offenses that challenge projection logic in the AFC East
As I’ve said, I’ll try to keep these writeups focused on my projections research, and they won’t include a ton of early-camp updates like the above about the Jaguars. Those are areas where we’ll need to adjust throughout August and up until Week 1. The below writeup is the foundation I’ll work my adjustments off of.
Important shoutouts to this Reddit series on offensive line play that a Stealing Signals reader sent me and I got useful information on the state of the line for each team, as well as the Coachspeak Index Discord where I got good information about what the coaches and GMs have been saying about each team throughout the offseason. Pat Thorman’s seasonal pace preview is always a must-read resource for understanding team play speed, no-huddle trends, and play volume; nobody parses that data as well as him. OurLads is always my go-to depth chart resource. I use OverTheCap for contract stuff, but Spotrac is another option. I get athletic stuff from RAS.
Data I pull for my projections typically comes from PFF, RotoViz, or Leone. Let’s get to the NFC East.
Dallas Cowboys
Key Stat: Cowboys — ranked top eight in play volume for six straight years
Cowboys Field Tippers pass-catcher analysis
The Cowboys went into 2024 with seemingly obvious holes at RB and WR2, and then those holes proved to be pretty limiting, even as they got OK play from Rico Dowdle. They did not get even OK play from any of the secondary WRs, and they lacked playmaking overall, which Rico didn’t really provide by just being solid. NFL teams need more potential game-breaking ability in the few touches they have to allocate over a game and a season than chalking it up as a win when you get surprisingly high-floor production out of a probably replacement-level back. The good news is Dallas learned nothing from this, at least as it relates to the backfield. Well, let’s start with head coach, where they promoted retread Brian Schottenheimer, whose offseason quotes as I read through them in the Coachspeak Index had me reminding myself I think he’s kind of an idiot. He’s the definition of a low-ceiling hire. And then their approach to the backfield remains an absolute mess. One way I thought about this is Jerry Jones and co. definitely like to think of themselves as sharp, and probably more than they actually are, in a way that maybe leads to them being a half decade behind the current best logic, and also just not applying it correctly, i.e. thinking they are sly like a fox with their RBs Don’t Matter approach. Maybe they just overlearned the lesson of their massive Ezekiel Elliott extension, which was one of the last ones before the market reset at the position. I do think their focus on offensive line strength has been smart, because that’s proven universally important across eras, but the RB research over the past decade that has had demonstrable effects on salaries and draft capital at the position never actually argued that RBs aren’t talented, or that the replaceability of the position meant that anyone can be good enough. Rather, it argued that the depth of talent at the position created cheaper alternatives to match some degree of the upside of higher-priced players. That it was easier than it should be to find a guy off the street or in the late rounds that could have some burst and maybe be a good scheme fit and suddenly start averaging 80 yards per game, i.e. not be bad, was not an argument to enter a season with one guy whose upside was that (Rico) and two guys who were so over the hill that one year later there is no other team that is even considering bringing those guys in (Elliott and Dalvin Cook). Just because RB talent is deep enough to look replaceable, does not argue there haven’t always been bad RBs that shouldn’t get big volume, a point the Cowboys didn’t understand entering last year, and then also didn’t learn. Again, you’re just not going to win a lot in the NFL without playmakers, and the ultimate endpoint of the RBs Don’t Matter logic was never to find replacement-level production as a ceiling. Or it shouldn’t have been. None of that should promote optimism about really any part of their roster or organization.
I want to split Jaydon Blue into his own category, but the reason I will come across confident Javonte Williams is wrong as a play this year is he was in a very favorable RB situation last year, behind a great offensive line, and week after week he just never looked close to being there (which the data supports, as I talked about at the top of this R.J. Harvey piece). I’m at least mildly less confident that’s true about where Miles Sanders is at this point, and he’s basically free in drafts, so if you made me play one of these guys, I’d do it through Sanders, although I’m basically always more interested in a different profile with whatever pick I’m making. Williams got the bigger contract and is OK in the passing game, so he’s likely to play empty snaps like he did last year. Sanders has been pretty poor in the pass game for several seasons now, so the bet on Sanders becomes one about consolidating the rushing work. His advantage over Williams there is Sanders did see a bit of a rebound in his evasion numbers last year, though his yards after contact were very poor and it didn’t translate to anything better than a well below average yards per carry number (both he and Williams posted identical 3.7 marks in what were both pretty favorable rushing environments, when you consider on Sanders’ side how good Chuba Hubbard looked for Carolina). I’m going to rope seventh-round rookie Phil Mafah into here as well. I have looked at this guy’s profile like six times this offseason, and I’ve watched him play, because there seems to be a path for him. He’s big and physical, but has atrocious evasion numbers for college football, no long speed or explosion (he didn’t test either with jumps or the 40-yard dash at the combine or his pro day, which has led some to project his 40 time around 4.6, but I’d suggest that’s probably a favorable read from watching him and the reality of his choice to not run), and very weak production by NFL prospect standards, particularly for a physical back playing against weaker athletes who he should’ve been able to dominate if his size is going to play at the NFL level. Size isn’t the only thing that matters, A.J. Dillon can tell you that, and I really can’t find any reason to believe Mafah actually should have been in the NFL running back discussion. There’s always uncertainty, but there is legitimately more to almost every other profile I’ve looked at, maybe ever (which are the reasons those guys are NFL prospects). I don’t even know what to point to with Mafah. Plainly, he looks like a college back.
That leaves Blue, who I’ve been defaulting to as my answer for how to play this backfield, in part because the Cowboys spent a fifth rounder on him, which for their recent history is good RB capital (and they seem to believe in their draft evals if their recent overpays in trade for busts like Trey Lance and Jonathan Mingo suggest anything). Blue’s small, and never handled workhorse duties in college, but his receiving profile is very good, his tested athleticism is very good (most observable in his sub-4.4 40-yard dash time), and his missed tackles forced stuff was good if not great, easily surpassing someone like Mafah (a hilarious stat is Blue also averaged more yards after contact per rush attempt than Mafah last year, and also over their respective careers, despite that being the one vaguely positive thing you might point to in Mafah’s profile given he’s a big back, and arguably being Blue’s weakness). The exciting thing for me is the Cowboys threw to the RB position with intent last year, as Dowdle posted a strong receiving TD rate, and return specialist KaVontae Turpin posted a YPRR over 2.0 mostly due to late-season routes out of the backfield when Dallas did finally figure out they needed some explosiveness from that spot. All of this suggests that Blue is easily the upside play in the backfield, including that there’s a role they drafted Blue to potentially fill (if you include the Turpin production). But the profile issue from the post-draft period was a probable lack of overall touch upside for Blue, and the new issue in July was around professionalism, with a former Cowboys coach (from 20 years ago) using the term “borderline lazy” on a podcast. One of the reports noted Blue turned just 21 in January, and it’s possible he’ll need a year of seasoning, which is the concern when you hear this kind of thing. Most inside the organization have taken issue with the comments, for what it’s worth. Again, if there’s big upside in this backfield, it’s almost certainly through Blue, with the potential that Sanders is a mildly intriguing last-round play for part of the season as another avenue that we look back on this like there was something we should have done differently. More likely is probably that Javonte gets too much work, but that at his cost it still doesn’t amount to much. Based on the Cowboys’ general approach to the position, and also the ways guys like Luepke and Turpin can factor in if no one is ready and able to step up, I do think it’s OK to be out on the whole backfield. I’ll definitely have some Blue myself, but the paths to him hitting the extreme upside do seem thinner than they should.
One of the reasons I commented negatively about Schottenheimer is he’s been talking about running the ball a ton this offseason, which just clearly doesn’t fit the talent on the roster. ETR’s Pat Thorman had some good notes about how consistent the Cowboys have been in pace and play volume in the Dak Prescott years, and I do think the QB trend will win out here, especially when we look at how poor the RBs figure to be. The Cowboys actually led the NFL in pace last year, and have been top eight in play volume for six straight seasons. Schottenheimer did also talk about tempo this offseason, and I don’t see that part of it changing, which is a real bonus for everyone’s range of outcomes.
It was a small sample of only eight games last year, but Prescott’s rush attempts per game cratered to 1.6 last year, down from a previous career low of 3.1. He played at least 60% of the snaps in all eight games, and the underlying data on his scramble rate especially shows that he just wasn’t running as much. He’s vaguely intriguing as a pure pass volume upside option, but I don’t love the play because of the lack of difference-making upside in the receiving corps. He has two clear weapons, and both those guys have to hit huge ceilings for Dak to really look great in a projection. If either misses time, the fall off to where his targets have to go instead is substantial, in terms of the player on the other end doing his part to help elevate Dak’s numbers. I do really like the WR duo to hit ceilings working off each other — that is going to be a legitimately exciting tandem and easily the most fun part of this team writeup — but I struggle with Dak’s range of outcomes.
The tandem is of course led by CeeDee Lamb, who battled some injuries last year, but mostly played through them and still got up to 526 routes. That number was nonetheless a consider dip from past years, and coupled with some efficiency declines with Dak missing time and no other WRs to command any attention, and you get a down year. For Lamb, that down year was a 2.27 YPRR. His YPT dipped, but so did his aDOT as it was harder to get him the ball down the field, and his depth-adjusted RACR was still very, very good. He’s always been much better than expectation based on aDOT, a reflection of his elite ball-in-hand ability; this is a dude that would probably be right there with Turpin as a returner if he didn’t have all the other WR skills. If you want one major reason to still be in on Lamb, let it be that even in an injury-plagued 2024, his YAC/ball-in-hand skills still showed up.
George Pickens I think provides real cover for Lamb, and then he’s also the very clear WR2 in a way that should create real upside for him. I don’t think there’s a real threat to Pickens dominating WR2 targets. Jalen Tolbert ran 553 routes to elevate his volume some in 2024, but earned just 36 targets in 2023 when in a deeper role. Jonathan Mingo isn’t a thing. Turpin will get some looks, and may be the WR3 in terms of volume, but he doesn’t have the full WR skill set. In doing the projection, I felt I could really dial down the WR4 and WR5 targets to basically nothing. The profiles down there are just not impressive. Pickens’ profile is. He’s another very good depth-adjusted RACR guy every year so far. Has just clearly been an efficient player even at a high aDOT, hitting 2.0+ YPRR each of the past two years, despite weak QB play. He’s not a huge volume-earner, but his TPRRs have been very good for his aDOTs, and they just fit so perfectly as a secondary WR in a high-volume pass game with limited target competition behind the alpha. And then if Lamb does miss some time, I would expect big Pickens games. The thing that held him back in Pittsburgh was mostly offensive design, and getting into a pass game that will give him the potential to scale up his routes — he’s capped out at 540 over the past two years, but could run over 600 in this offense — more than offsets his move from a No. 1 WR role last year to a pretty clear No. 2 spot. I don’t understand why Pickens’ ADP doesn’t mirror Tee Higgins’, but that’s also a comment on Higgins being a bit overvalued. But Pickens at his cost is a play I like very much.
Jake Ferguson is fine. He didn’t step forward with his TPRR in a big way even as his aDOT was super low, in an offense that frankly could have used him to step into a bigger role. So I’m not seeing much ceiling, but QB play can be blamed for his YPT decline, and his three-year profile isn’t terrible. People felt that he would score a ton of touchdowns, in part because he had three in a playoff game the year prior, while I argued he probably wasn’t someone I’d project to have some massive TD rate. I didn’t think he’d score zero, which was the biggest driver of his poor 2024 and probably has helped push his price down too low this year. In a weak year at the position, and specifically because floor is more worth discussing at TE than any other position because of how low the replacement level can get, I do think Ferguson is on the board in the later rounds. I’d almost certainly want to pair him with a real breakout option, like a swing on Harold Fannin.
Signal: George Pickens — should run more routes than the past two years, great fit to play off Lamb, efficient player, contingent upside, strong mid-round WR pick; Cowboys — top eight in play volume for six straight years (clear Dak Prescott trend, Schottenheimer has talked tempo); Jaydon Blue — clear upside play in the backfield from an athleticism and profile perspective, but concerns about ability to handle big rushing work plus some negative buzz are a reminder he doesn’t have to hit even if the thesis that the other backs aren’t good enough is accurate (I do still want some exposure); CeeDee Lamb — still elite, maintained high-end ball-in-hand numbers despite injuries and bad QB play
Noise: Jake Ferguson — 0 touchdowns on 86 targets last year (don’t see huge upside in the play, but he’s probably undervalued as a later-round floor TE option in a weak year at the position); Javonte Williams — biggest contract, likeliest projectable snaps role (he’ll play, and may have some production, but the opportunity cost where he goes is still too high to bet he can make the massive turnaround necessary to be the right pick there)
New York Giants
Key Stat: Malik Nabers — 29.7% TPRR, 0.73 wTPRR, 170 targets (5 shy of NFL high and played just 15 games)