I hate rankings. You might remember that from past years, like last year’s release where I wrote a ton about what I’m trying to accomplish here, which I’m obviously about to do again (link at bottom for paid subs if you don’t care to read through).
I’ve spent a couple days on these rankings, and they are coming together, and in a few spots I really like what the rankings are clearly saying where I have a guy a tier up or a tier down and I’ve marked them as targets or fades, and then also there are just as many spots where I hate what a certain tier might be implying about the decisions I might make.
My goal with these rankings is simple — in every single situation, in every possible draft, on any possible platform (all with varying ADPs), no matter how the picks have come in before you, when you get on the clock, I want the players at the top of the ranks at every position to be exactly those that I would be considering if I were doing the draft myself, such that every single time every one of you makes a decision it’s like I was sitting there talking through it with you. I’m serious; I don’t know why I’m wired this way, but it’s who I am. Besides, that’s not that high of a bar, right?
I really don’t mind being wrong so much; the stuff that really bugs me is when I convey the messages poorly in a way that people trying to listen to my advice aren’t even playing it the way I’d play it. When those people aren’t successful and I hear why, I take that a helluva lot more personally than when Atlanta throws the ball fewer times than Fred Flintstone’s team did, and I get to hear about how dumb I was for liking Kyle Pitts.
But in 2023, with ADP getting more efficient, including major shifts at different positions, there’s just so much, “well, yeah, in that scenario, I’d consider that guy.” I’ve always done rankings split out by position, but more than ever a set of overall rankings would be really useful. Unfortunately, with the amount of time I spend thinking through every little element of these things, I don’t think I’ll be putting those together — instead, it’s going to be imperative that I write those details out and you guys read the details in the upcoming position-by-position tiers pieces.
This is similar to how I’ve only ever put together PPR rankings, which I realize you guys in standard or 0.5 PPR really hate. As I’ve said every year — and this helps explain why my rankings are only now being released — I know what these are used for (to draft, and to compare players directly), and so it’s not a situation where I can just say, “don’t let great be the enemy of good and just get something out there,” because then the thing I’m getting out there is literally leading the user astray on the single thing it’s most used for. If I’m going to make and distribute rankings, they quite literally need to be as close to as perfect in terms of the draft day decisions I myself would make, or they aren’t relevant.
And when I say the draft day decisions, it’s important to acknowledge that in most cases I’m considering ADP and where I can draft guys, which for me is heavily weighed toward Underdog at this stage, as that’s where I’ve done my most drafting. But in some other cases, I just outright rank a guy a tier higher or lower, not considering ADP, because I think the price is egregious. In all cases, I recommend you trying to get the best price, not overdrafting players by multiple rounds because my rankings told you to.
What I find so tough about rankings is I really feel this game needs to be played with a heavy acknowledgement of uncertainty. Right now, I’m probably more aligned with ADP in these initial ranks than I’d actually want to be. But that’s me deferring to the market a bit.
As I shift these rankings between now and Week 1, you’ll both see me take a few stronger stands, but also see how my acknowledgement of uncertainty plays out in real time. Sometimes, all it takes is a little nudge, since I was already ready to buy into the upside case for a player, where one positive note means I will shoot a guy up a tier. Other times, I need to be hit over the head with literally weeks of positive news reports to slowly move up some boring veteran. I feel like everyone’s trying to gaslight me on DeVante Parker, but I mean the WR75 rankings I started him out with here is actually ahead of the blended Underdog/FFPC/NFFC ADP I was looking at (WR85), so you Parker bulls win. Thanks for taking all the fun out of everything.
Last year, at your request, I added a bolded “Targets” and italicized “Fades” element, which I’m still working through. That part is loosely related to their ADPs, but more practically is me just highlighting the players I actually select on my teams and the others I pretty much never do — so in some cases, I might have someone noted as a Fade who is ranked about where they go, which is just me not really wanting to move anyone else up above them, and in other cases I might have a Target who appears ranked too low to ever wind up on my team, but he’s someone where the price is just a little rich but I do love to grab him when he falls past ADP. Those situations should be rare, but I just wanted to note the possibilities.
Again, these rankings are only the one set, which is focused on PPR, and it’s split out positionally. As I always say, I will absolutely shift the types of profiles I’m willing to consider in various league types, but it doesn’t suddenly turn Fades into Targets, or vice versa. A more subtle application would be that for me, in standard, Garrett Wilson becomes my preferred young upside WR over Amon-Ra St. Brown, because their upside cases include different ranges for receptions and TDs (I mentally define ARSB’s ceiling in terms of catches, while for Wilson the TD upside carries more weight, and ultimately the shift from PPR to standard is really just that, a shift toward deemphasizing receptions and putting a greater emphasis on TD potential, which means targeting profiles from offenses projected to score points or players who have traditionally had huge roles in the green zone area of the field).
But ultimately, in that comparison, I’m still very high on both being able to produce big numbers this season. And the key is, we’re not trying to project the 2023 season. We’re acknowledging uncertainty, and also acknowledging that overwhelmingly what wins in this hobby is the upside outcomes. Breakout players and superstars. Huge seasons.
The specifics of those seasons aren’t typically projectable, which is why one projection outcome (like those that I released, and am not updating) isn’t super relevant to me. You’ll probably find pretty big discrepancies between my projections and rankings, and in some cases that honestly might be an oversight, but in most cases I’m focused on a range of outcomes in my rankings and draft decisions. So while scoring system does matter — and is especially important to account for in your draft structure and overall approach — it isn’t ultimately going to make a difference on what the elite seasons were. Breakout stars in PPR, who hit on these “unprojectable” upside cases I’m weighing into their lofty rankings, are also going to be stars in half-PPR and standard. It’s just a slight shift to the types of players to target.
There’s also a huge question about how to apply these rankings in home leagues versus, say, best ball, versus, say, higher-stakes stuff. Hopefully I’ve written enough about that over the years that you have some ideas, but that’s something I’ll need to dig into more in the coming days.
But I’m releasing these now, because I know some of you are already drafting this weekend, and if I don’t release them now I may never. I will continue to tinker them probably all day and all weekend as I start some of my biggest drafts. That’s really the part of the process that gets me where I want to be — constant shuffling as I use the rankings to draft. I do usually feel pretty confident in them by the week or two before the start of the season, and I learned in my CBS days that more than 75% of drafts take place in the final two weeks before Week 1, so hopefully most of you will be working with a strong set by the time your most important drafts roll around.
But now that I’ve detailed my complete lack of conviction and overall anxiety about releasing these — the exact traits you want from your fantasy analyst — let’s release the ranks! I will say, if you read through the Offseason Stealing Signals posts, or to a lesser extent my projections, and you notice something here that really doesn’t align with where you thought I’d land, please ask me about it. You’ll genuinely be helping me accomplish my goal, which is to get these rankings to a place where I can defend every element of them, because, again, that’s the whole point.