Input Volatility, Week 10
Game-by-game sneaky plays
I’m ready for another week of football to start to get my mind off of last week’s Monday Night Football debacle. I wrote in the intro to Part 2 of Stealing Signals this week that I have four matchups decided by 10 or fewer points where I had either Breece Hall or Garrett Wilson going. One of those was by 0.8, another was directly influenced by the Zach Wilson fumble and short Austin Ekeler rushing TD off that.
This is going to sound a little hard to believe, but I wrote that before I’d actually gone through all my teams — I think because I couldn’t really stomach it — and I found three more such teams. I realize saying “10 or fewer points” feels like a lot, but it’s really not in fantasy football terms, where games are decided by 20+ more often than you think. And it’s also the case that I have a ton of Breece and Garrett, but by comparison I had only one game where I had one of those two and won by 10 or fewer points (i.e. they got me just enough rather than not quite enough).
And of the other matchups, I found a second FFPC Main Event where I had Breece and was playing Ekeler. I lost by 3.15 in that one, so it was a second one where the late Ekeler TD decided it. If the Chargers had just run that back, I would have flipped two of these close matchups I’m talking about.
I also found a 3.65-point loss in an NFC Primetime where I had Breece and was against the Chargers’ DST and also Chargers’ kicker, so that sack fumble plus the extra point — or just the eight sacks Zach Wilson took overall — helped decide that one, too. The third new matchup I found? A 2.4-point loss.
In the end, it was five losses of five or fewer, and then seven of 10 or fewer points, and again every single one was a team where I had Breece or Garrett. Out of 27 total teams I think it is that I have. The deficits in these seven leagues, from closest to biggest blowout, were: 0.8, 2.4, 3.15, 3.65, 4.7, 6.1, and 9.9.
Anyway, these close losses were whatever the opposite of “the gift that keeps on giving” is, and I had to share, even if these details about close losses weren’t really that exciting. I’ve just never had so many matchups come down to something so correlated like that. It was wild.
Also, wanted to mention real quick we had The Athletic’s Robert Mays on Ship Chasing last night, and he really understands the ins and outs of football, so I had a blast asking him some fantasy-adjacent questions like why Kansas City rotates their WRs so much (and if we’ll ever see that consolidate), why we’re seeing No. 1 WRs dominate volume a bit more this year, and what his thoughts are on Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. He was on during the second quarter and it was a really fun convo hitting on some of the types of stuff I find to be underdiscussed for fantasy, so check that out if you have a minute.
Let’s jump into Input Volatility for Week 10 and agree to never discuss Week 9 again. As always, rather than spending something like an hour on each game like I might for Stealing Signals, in this piece I fly through the games and spend maybe an hour on all of them combined.
Defer to good projections or the variety of great forward-looking stuff from the analysts I frequently reference — Kerrane; Overzet; Siegele and the RotoViz team; Leone, Silva, and the ETR guys — over my thoughts. I offer these considerations solely because you guys have asked, and because I’m deep enough in the weeds with Stealing Signals that I might have a unique thought about a different part of a range of outcomes in some cases, relative to what you’re seeing elsewhere. I don’t offer these thoughts because I think they will be explicitly great predictions.
Colts at Patriots
I’m so glad the international series ends this week. I don’t mean to complain about more standalone games, which are great opportunities to focus on one game at a time, but there’s literally not a worse window during the week for it than right before the bulk of the Sunday slate. It’s a busy time!
I hate to say this because I’m very into Jonathan Taylor’s huge Week 9 role, but getting up to roughly 75% of the backfield might not stick, for obvious reasons, i.e. Zack Moss has done good stuff this year.
The Colts ruled out TE Drew Ogletree, plus WRs Josh Downs and Alec Pierce are both questionable. The Patriots are notorious for keying on No. 1 WRs, but Michael Pittman seems in line for a lot of volume, and then there are other names that could pop up as useful this week, including Isaiah McKenzie and maybe even Kylen Granson. Or it could just be the Taylor show.
DeVante Parker is out for New England, who lost Kendrick Bourne just a couple weeks ago. Demario Douglas has stepped up, but he’s questionable here, too. Mac Jones is probably going to be throwing to a triumvirate of fantasy disappointment in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and Jalen Reagor.
Browns at Ravens
Cleveland’s usage seems straightforward, but the volatility lies with its quarterback.
For the Ravens, Keaton Mitchell is the big Week 10 story, but he’s unfortunately questionable with a hamstring. We may not find out if he was slated for a bigger role.
Texans at Bengals
Dameon Pierce and Nico Collins are out, which is a big chunk of the projected touches in the Texans’ offense. The RB stuff is pretty straightforward — we have a sample of Pierce missing — while the pass-catching stuff is a little more interesting in what it could mean for Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz most notably.
Tee Higgins is out, plus Ja’Marr Chase is banged up. You’re still starting Chase if active, but if the Bengals are able to get out to a decent lead, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his snaps limited pretty significantly. The intersection of game flow and usage will be interesting.
Also, expect Trenton Irwin to play a decent amount, and with the way Joe Burrow’s been playing, Irwin’s not like a good option but he’s at least worth mentioning for deeper formats.
49ers at Jaguars
Deebo Samuel’s back for the 49ers, who I expect to look great in this matchup of two teams coming off their respective byes.
Both of these teams are pretty concentrated and we know where the ball might end up.
Saints at Vikings
Taysom Hill is an input volatility guy forever, but the red zone packages are so crucial these days, and I really do think they have to see his usage there as highly valuable. It’s probably going to stick.
Justin Jefferson is officially questionable, and I’m a little skeptical we’ll see him based on the reports this week, but you get the impression he wants to play (while you get the impression the team really wants to hold him out). The Vikings’ bye is three games away, so there’s some fear that if they hold him out this week, they may be trying to keep him out through that date.
How Joshua Dobbs fits in after a full week of practice and learning everyone’s names is a bit storyline this week, obviously.
T.J. Hockenson is also questionable, which if he somehow missed, that wouldn’t likely make Josh Oliver or Johnny Mundt interesting so much as open up targets for WRs like Jordan Addison.
Ty Chandler’s role as the No. 2 with Cam Akers out is another one to watch.