Let’s get weird. I won’t be able to preview the games, so I’m doing what I did periodically last year and switching up the entire premise of this post.
It’s time to go team by team and check in on our TPRR and wTPRR data. You can read all about this exercise in the intro to when I did it earlier this year, which also includes links to discussions from past years. I’m short on time so going to jump right into it today, with limited preamble, but the gist is this is more of a “long view” exercise where we’re seeing what the 2023 season data tells us about a player or a team in the context of what we might expect the rest of this year, next year, whatever. What they really are, as talents. That sort of thing.
I always like to start with a look at the league leaders, so you can get an idea of the high end of the scale of the different stats. Let’s start with the top TPRRs so far this year with at least 200 routes.
The displayed data is - TPRR, wTPRR (routes)
Tyreek Hill - 0.35, 0.91 (301)
Davante Adams - 0.29, 0.77 (368)
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 0.28, 0.65 (331)
Puka Nacua - 0.28, 0.67 (356)
Keenan Allen - 0.27, 0.69 (393)
Stefon Diggs - 0.27, 0.69 (398)
Travis Kelce - 0.27, 0.60 (293)
CeeDee Lamb - 0.27, 0.68 (358)
DeAndre Hopkins - 0.26, 0.78 (284)
Trey McBride - 0.26, 0.59 (212)
A.J. Brown - 0.26, 0.72 (359)
Jaylen Waddle - 0.26, 0.65 (260)
T.J. Hockenson - 0.26, 0.58 (385)
Garrett Wilson - 0.25, 0.66 (387)
Chris Olave - 0.25, 0.72 (375)
Mike Evans - 0.25, 0.73 (313)
Michael Pittman Jr. - 0.25, 0.58 (371)
Ja'Marr Chase - 0.25, 0.61 (413)
Brandon Aiyuk - 0.24, 0.71 (246)
Tank Dell - 0.24, 0.70 (275)
Tyreek Hill is a monster, you see a ton of other legit No. 1 WRs, and then also Trey McBride and Tank Dell are balling.
Here’s just the top 10, but if we sort by wTPRR
Tyreek Hill - 0.35, 0.91 (301)
DeAndre Hopkins - 0.26, 0.78 (284)
Davante Adams - 0.29, 0.77 (368)
Mike Evans - 0.25, 0.73 (313)
Chris Olave - 0.25, 0.72 (375)
A.J. Brown - 0.26, 0.72 (359)
Brandon Aiyuk - 0.24, 0.71 (246)
Tank Dell - 0.24, 0.70 (275)
Stefon Diggs - 0.27, 0.69 (398)
Keenan Allen - 0.27, 0.69 (393)
You can see for guys like DeAndre Hopkins, the air yards are really valuable. Mike Evans, Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, and Dell, too. They boost profiles that without the air yards don’t necessarily scream “elite,” but with them certainly do.
For the below, I’m going to lower the routes minimum to 100 (roughly 10 per game) to bring in RBs and secondary players. I’m going to work quick because I have a livestream on Ship Chasing coming up at 8:15 ET.
Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride - 0.26, 0.59 (212)
Zach Ertz - 0.23, 0.51 (186)
Marquise Brown - 0.21, 0.57 (384)
Michael Carter - 0.18, 0.32 (103)
Michael Wilson - 0.14, 0.42 (276)
Rondale Moore - 0.13, 0.29 (307)
Emari Demercado - 0.13, 0.24 (114)
James Conner - 0.11, 0.17 (106)
McBride has really come into his own in Year 2, but there’s not much else exciting here. Marquise Brown looks like he has in the past, and Michael Wilson and Rondale Moore aren’t doing anything special.
Atlanta Falcons
Drake London - 0.21, 0.54 (280)
Kyle Pitts - 0.20, 0.51 (278)
Jonnu Smith - 0.19, 0.42 (233)
Mack Hollins - 0.19, 0.52 (145)
Bijan Robinson - 0.16, 0.27 (252)
KhaDarel Hodge - 0.12, 0.37 (121)
Van Jefferson - 0.11, 0.35 (264)
The thing where Atlanta’s pass volume has risen, but the concentration on Drake London and Kyle Pitts last year with their high TPRRs has gone away so that Jonnu Smith and Mack Hollins types could be used creatively is obviously ridiculous.
Bijan Robinson looks solid, and the 252 routes is the real signal there. You won’t see a lot of RB numbers that high.
Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews - 0.22, 0.51 (278)
Odell Beckham Jr. - 0.21, 0.58 (195)
Zay Flowers - 0.20, 0.48 (351)
Rashod Bateman - 0.15, 0.43 (206)
Nelson Agholor - 0.13, 0.34 (199)
Justice Hill - 0.13, 0.20 (136)
Isaiah Likely - 0.10, 0.22 (107)
Gus Edwards - 0.08, 0.14 (120)
Mark Andrews was down quite a bit from past years, including a 25.3% TPRR last year, 23.9% the year before that, 25.1% before that, and 32.9% way back in 2019. The offense has definitely leaned toward more WR targets overall, and Isaiah Likely has been very lightly used in a bit role. He’s also caught just one pass across two games where he’s played the majority of the snaps this year — Week 1, which Andrews missed, and this past week. I’m starting to think Likely is fool’s gold.
Zay Flowers has had a nice rookie season, but you see where his TPRR isn’t driving things as much as his 351 routes. That’s still a solid TPRR compared to, say, Rashod Bateman, who has taken a step back in role and also per-route production.
Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs - 0.27, 0.69 (398)
Dalton Kincaid - 0.20, 0.42 (296)
Dawson Knox - 0.16, 0.35 (174)
Khalil Shakir - 0.15, 0.39 (162)
James Cook - 0.15, 0.27 (206)
Gabe Davis - 0.14, 0.39 (387)
Latavius Murray - 0.11, 0.19 (134)
Trent Sherfield - 0.11, 0.27 (101)
That gap between Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid has been nonexistent over the past five weeks, since Kincaid missed Week 6. They’ve each had a 0.24 TPRR since then, and even the wTPRR side is pretty close, with Diggs down to 0.58 and Kincaid at 0.50.
Since I have that split pulled up, I’ll note Gabe Davis is somehow even lower in the recent split than the overall, where he’s down to a 13% TPRR in the split. Nothing positive brewing with him.
Carolina Panthers
Adam Thielen - 0.23, 0.53 (412)
Miles Sanders - 0.19, 0.32 (156)
Chuba Hubbard - 0.15, 0.24 (178)
Terrace Marshall Jr. - 0.15, 0.34 (198)
Jonathan Mingo - 0.15, 0.37 (335)
Hayden Hurst - 0.13, 0.32 (224)
Tommy Tremble - 0.11, 0.23 (126)
DJ Chark Jr. - 0.11, 0.30 (286)
This offense is Adam Thielen getting mostly underneath targets, and then two RBs as the next most targeted players per route. Typically on the RB side it’s just checkdowns and not really “earning” volume, but we can say that the other players are not earning it.
When I last did my TPRR check-in, I quoted my preseason Panthers’ writeup with this:
“I like Bryce Young longterm, but I’m pretty out in Year 1 due to what I see as a really poorly constructed WR room.”
I’d love to give him something of a pass, but he also has struggled it seems. Hard to know how to parse that.
Chicago Bears
Roschon Johnson - 0.24, 0.38 (102)
DJ Moore - 0.21, 0.57 (381)
Cole Kmet - 0.20, 0.43 (291)
Tyler Scott - 0.13, 0.34 (152)
Darnell Mooney - 0.11, 0.29 (320)
I had to do a double take at D.J. Moore’s numbers, but he’s been hyperefficient, and that’s actually a strong routes number, which is great. One way to look at this is TPRR is negatively impacted by scramble and sack rates (no pass attempt, but routes run), but at least there are a ton of routes.
That’s also a positive caveat for Cole Kmet.
Cincinnati Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase - 0.25, 0.61 (413)
Tee Higgins - 0.21, 0.55 (233)
Tyler Boyd - 0.17, 0.38 (389)
Joe Mixon - 0.15, 0.22 (239)
Trenton Irwin - 0.12, 0.31 (180)
Irv Smith Jr. - 0.11, 0.23 (190)
Pretty much as expected, right down to Irv Smith not being good enough. The Bengals have at least admitted this and moved to Tanner Hudson of late.
Cleveland Browns
David Njoku - 0.21, 0.41 (316)
Amari Cooper - 0.21, 0.59 (361)
Elijah Moore - 0.18, 0.43 (345)
Jerome Ford - 0.18, 0.31 (187)
Cedric Tillman - 0.07, 0.18 (123)
I suppose if I’m suppose to draw anything from that, it’s probably that David Njoku’s numbers are pretty strong for a TE.
Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb - 0.27, 0.68 (358)
Jake Ferguson - 0.18, 0.40 (290)
Tony Pollard - 0.17, 0.28 (231)
Michael Gallup - 0.17, 0.44 (263)
Jalen Tolbert - 0.16, 0.42 (158)
Brandin Cooks - 0.15, 0.42 (279)
CeeDee Lamb is reaching new heights, which is exciting, while Jake Ferguson has definitely done a serviceable rendition of Dalton Schultz.
Brandin Cooks doesn’t look good even after the one huge game, but that probably isn’t difficult to recognize.
Denver Broncos
Samaje Perine - 0.24, 0.41 (140)
Courtland Sutton - 0.18, 0.47 (326)
Jerry Jeudy - 0.18, 0.50 (271)
Marvin Mims Jr. - 0.13, 0.41 (138)
Brandon Johnson - 0.10, 0.26 (126)
Adam Trautman - 0.09, 0.20 (251)
Here’s an interesting one. When I lower the routes threshold lower, Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams show up at the top. McLaughlin has a 0.36 TPRR on 61 routes, and Williams a 0.31 on 83. The clear top three guys are all RBs, and then the WRs kick in down at the 18% range. It’s an annoying offense.
Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 0.28, 0.65 (331)
Jahmyr Gibbs - 0.24, 0.42 (176)
Sam LaPorta - 0.23, 0.51 (305)
Kalif Raymond - 0.19, 0.45 (145)
Jameson Williams - 0.19, 0.58 (106)
Josh Reynolds - 0.12, 0.34 (290)
Brock Wright - 0.09, 0.18 (106)
Donovan Peoples-Jones - 0.08, 0.22 (220)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is another of the elite No. 1s clearly getting his this year. Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta are also both in great ranges for rookies. And then Jameson Williams is obviously in a part-time role, but a 19% TPRR for a high aDOT guy that manifests in a 0.58 wTPRR is not too shabby.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones - 0.26, 0.41 (103)
Romeo Doubs - 0.20, 0.54 (312)
Jayden Reed - 0.19, 0.50 (255)
Dontayvion Wicks - 0.19, 0.49 (172)
Christian Watson - 0.17, 0.54 (212)
Luke Musgrave - 0.16, 0.37 (269)
AJ Dillon - 0.12, 0.19 (173)
Christian Watson is finding it very difficult to earn volume, and has been comfortably behind the other three youngster WRs in the passing game. Luke Musgrave looks likely to miss some time, and he similarly wasn’t particularly impressive this year.
Romeo Doubs continues to show he can earn volume, but the efficiency remains in question. Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have both been interesting with the combination of these solid per-route-run numbers and their efficiency, giving them easily the best YPRRs of the bunch.
Houston Texans
Tank Dell - 0.24, 0.70 (275)
Nico Collins - 0.23, 0.62 (274)
Robert Woods - 0.20, 0.51 (246)
Dalton Schultz - 0.19, 0.45 (295)
Noah Brown - 0.18, 0.45 (153)
Devin Singletary - 0.09, 0.15 (163)
As I’ve been writing about lately, Tank Dell’s been elevating of late, with at 0.28 TPRR and 0.82 wTPRR since Week 7. Nico Collins has also had a good year, and has still been at a 0.24 TPRR and 0.61 wTPRR in that same stretch since Week 7, showing that if Dell is the No. 1 now, Collins is a rock solid No. 2.
Noah Brown has also elevated of late, and obviously the whole passing game has been fantastic, benefitting from an elite rookie QB.