If you’re somehow not aware, I’m a pretty but Washington Huskies fan, so everything was a bit delayed this week leading up to last night’s Pac-12 Championship, out of necessity (I couldn’t focus). Despite being 12-0, Washington was an afterthought, not just disrespected in the media with most previews hyping up our rival Oregon’s path to the CFP (and Bo Nix’s to the Heisman) as if it was a foregone conclusion, but also in the all-important betting market where the models were telling everyone who does this seriously that Oregon should be big favorites.
As someone who respects the market, I was doing mental gymnastics all week trying to understand my own bias, because I truly did believe the line was wrong, and was being influenced by the wrong factors. I mentioned that a few places, including on Ship Chasing Thursday night, where I got a few more people than I’d intended to bet on UW. Naturally, after Washington came out strong and wound up not just winning, but winning in a way where I’d argue they were pretty clearly the superior team, and won despite frankly running unlucky on some of the penalty and situational factors that influence football games, it was a pretty awesome feeling, and I had a few drinks to celebrate with friends — both in person at my buddy’s house and via FaceTime from around the US — as it’s always a little sweeter when you feel people are unfairly counting you out. Chip on your shoulder and all of that.
That intro was half to boast and half to say that I’m writing this out of obligation, but not because I’m particularly well-researched on Week 13’s nuances. I always note that I do this piece quickly, and to defer to good projections over my thoughts, because I’m talking through ranges of outcomes, not what I believe to be explicitly great predictions. That’s even more true this week, where we’re just going to shoot from the hip and do a purely vibes-based Input Volatility. Let’s get into it.
Broncos at Texans
With Dalton Schultz out, Brevin Jordan is receiving some buzz as the potential routes lead. So far in his NFL career he’s shown some target-earning upside, but not been particularly efficient in terms of yardage. He did have an intriguing age-adjusted production profile as a prospect, but wasn’t a strong athletic tester. I’m of two minds here; there’s definitely upside in a C.J. Stroud offense, and Jordan could be a reasonable bet to capture that, if not for there being very little so far in his NFL sample that suggests he actually can.
Chargers at Patriots
You’d think eventually a second receiving weapon would step up, and if the Patriots key on Keenan Allen, someone might have to. But I’m not sure who I think is best suited for that. Maybe Gerald Everett? I don’t love the Jalen Guyton move, and Quentin Johnston is just depressing at this point. It may just be a stayaway, even with clear potential opportunity.
With Demario Douglas out, there’s a lot of available volume for New England, too, but also Bailey Zappe is under center. There’s a reason this game’s total is under 40 points. DeVante Parker should probably see some volume, though, and maybe Hunter Henry gets a bit of an uptick.
Lions at Saints
Jameson Williams is one to watch after the post-Thanksgiving mini-bye. He’s been playing more since the real bye (Week 9), and while he’s only caught two passes each week, he’s done a lot to turn around the constant negativity around him dating back to August. He’s made plays when called upon, had some nice blocks in the run game, and generally seemed like a positive-impact player for Detroit, which could lead to a few more targets and the role solidifying more in what is one of the most unique player development situations you’ll ever see. (But because of that, I’m not writing him off.)
It’s not clear yet whether Chris Olave will play. He’s practiced, and sounds good to go if he gets the clearance from the concussion protocol. If he doesn’t, with Rasheed Shahid and Michael Thomas also out, you’re talking about a lot of available opportunity. Lynn Bowden got some intriguing work last week, but in a limited capacity. Rookie A.T. Perry didn’t make noise in his first big shot, but could also be the guy to step up here. And then Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson are obvious names. But if Olave does suit up, expect plenty of volume.
Falcons at Jets
Every input in an Arthur Smith offense is volatile, but hopefully we’re at full Bijan Robinson the rest of the way.
I talked through how Tim Boyle was bad but in a different way than Zach Wilson, and I do think you have to project more completions and thus more PPR points for the main guys when he’s at QB. It’s still a bad offense, though, and this game has a hilarious 33.5 over/under.