Input Volatility, Week 13
Game-by-game thoughts
Busy week, so let’s just jump into the games. As always, I offer these considerations solely because you guys have asked, and because I might have a thought about a different part of a range of outcomes in some cases, relative to what you’re seeing elsewhere. I don’t offer these thoughts because I think they will be explicitly great predictions, and it’s basically just me going game-by-game and throwing out what hits me.
Chargers at Falcons
Kimani Vidal has been highlighted here several times, and it’s not really panned out, but with J.K. Dobbins out, he’s definitely in that discussion again. Of course, with no one on bye, and a lot of healthy RBs out there, you can probably find better options than trying to swing up playing time upside. The idea for Vidal would be he mostly takes the Dobbins snaps, but maybe cedes more rushing work to Gus Edwards than Dobbins usually does. Edwards also has obvious playing time upside here.
Without Dobbins, another volatility element is whether the Chargers might just throw a ton, and Ladd McConkey and to a lesser extent Will Dissly are their only reliable receiving options right now. One possible outcome is they aren’t able to find anything effective on the ground early, sort of abandon the run, and we see Ladd and/or Dissly get a lot of volume as the only thing they do think they can count on.
Not much for volatility on the Atlanta side, but they are coming off their bye so maybe they mix something up we can’t see. Drake London is not 100%, which could impact the other receiving options.
Steelers at Bengals
Jaylen Warren seemed to overtake Najee Harris last week on the short week, but probably Najee will still factor in and things will shift back closer to 50/50. Still, Warren’s a dynamic player, there’s a lot of RB work to go around here, and he has some meaningful upside. On the flip side, with a lack of efficiency and reliant on heavy workloads, Najee isn’t a guy I want to be playing when there’s risk of the 40% side of a 60/40 split.
Coming out of the bye, the big question on the Bengals’ side is whether Chase Brown will continue to get everything, or how much other RBs might factor in, specially Khalil Herbert who will have had several weeks now since being acquired via trade. You’re still playing Brown as he’s clearly one of the big three that are the focal points of this offense, but it’ll be something to watch.
Texans at Jaguars
We know what the Texans are at this point, but hopefully they throw with more intent this week. Or after the bye. Sometime soon.
I showed a little enthusiasm for John Metchie so let’s be clear that there doesn’t appear to be anything there. Tank Dell has been meaningfully ahead of him for volume the past couple weeks, and he’s been buried down with Dalton Schultz in the pecking order.
Jacksonville’s expecting Trevor Lawrence back, and Brian Thomas should be healthier on this side of the bye, which could be really exciting as a late-season and post-bye rookie eruption could be here. Evan Engram should see plenty of volume as well, and Travis Etienne is likely the closest to 100% he’s been in months. My guess is Tank Bigsby will get some low-value touches but mostly operate as a backup.
Cardinals at Vikings
There’s definitely some volatility with Marvin Harrison, just from the perspective that we might have thought last week he’d see a post-bye bump and then didn’t, and it wouldn’t shock if they sort of overcorrected. But also, he might just keep struggling. I don’t have any specific insight into what is going on there, and why his disappointing season has been this disappointing. I wasn’t in on him at cost but would have expected more than 3.3 catches and about 50 yards per game.
Jordan Addison has touchdowns in three of the Vikings’ past four games, and 17 targets over the past two. Of course, Justin Jefferson is going to go off for 150+ yards again soon enough, and it’ll be a question of whether there’s enough overall production from Sam Darnold to support anyone else when that happens. T.J. Hockenson feels a bit more stable and reliable than Addison, if you’re wondering where I’m thinking he fits in.
Colts at Patriots
This game has a 42.5 over/under, which is low, and I guess I think it could go under even with two really exciting young QBs. I’m not betting the under necessarily, but something like a 16-6 game isn’t out of the question to me. I still think both QBs have a decent floor through mobility, especially Anthony Richardson who is getting far more designed rush attempts since re-entering the lineup — 10+ in 3 of his past 4 games, versus a season-high of 8 earlier in the season. And both definitely have a ceiling, again especially Richardson who has more rushing upside plus the super high aDOT where sometimes those deep shots are just going to hit.
I don’t know what to tell you about the skill position guys on either side. Everybody could totally bust, but there’s also upside for bombs on the Colts’ side, and you also get a vertical passing element from Maye, as well, so chunk plays can be there for either offense, too.