Input Volatility, Week 13
Four games down, 12 to go
I hope all of you had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and are off to hot starts in a Week 13 where four straight underdogs have won outright. It’s been one of those years, where even as we’re this deep in the season, I think there’s less known about what these teams are, and who is in position to make a run in December (for our purposes) and ultimately also January.
I had a great Thanksgiving with family, as I’m lucky enough to be in an area where I could spend a few hours with my in-laws, and then also travel to my dad’s and spend time with my family on the same day. Two Thanksgivings! Only ate once, though.
For Black Friday, my wife and I took our daughters to see Zootopia 2, which for anyone on the fence about that, it was a blast. I always liked the first one as a pretty underrated kids’ movie, and it took 10 years for the sequel, but they really captured the spirit of it and didn’t fall into any of the sequel traps, in my opinion. We got a good new storyline, some good new characters, and I think most notably some really interesting world and character expansion as we spent more time with everyone.
Most Fridays, I write up Input Volatility, but I also start the draft for Stealing Signals, Part 1, and work on the Thursday night game. This week, it’s been a little different, and I’m grateful for the plan I’ve put in place that has allowed that freedom. I’ll still be writing a ton Monday and Tuesday, but I don’t feel the pressure to let that infringe on what’s most important. I can already feel myself more excited for that work when it feels less like a chore, and more like I can approach it how I see fit.
Let’s get to the games, and though we’ve had four already played, we have no byes this week, so there’s plenty left on the docket. As always, I offer these considerations solely because you guys have asked, and because I might have a thought about a different part of a range of outcomes in some cases than what is being caught in projections, or you’re seeing elsewhere. I don’t offer these thoughts because I think they will be explicitly great predictions, and it’s basically just me going game-by-game and throwing out what hits me.
And as we’re through double-digit weeks, with more data, the projections and the range of outcomes for the different players becomes more known, meaning less volatility. I basically don’t think Input Volatility is even that great of an article at this point in the season, but I’ll keep writing it.
Here are the things I’m thinking about as I’m setting lineups for Week 13.
Rams at Panthers
The Rams are super straightforward on offense. They are also huge road favorites and have a great run defense, so for as much as I wrote being optimistic about Rico Dowdle getting more usage going forward, this may not be the week for it. Chuba Hubbard has been a headache in the passing game. Still, I’m probably playing Dowdle in most situations. It’s hard to have multiple RBs meaningfully better.
There’s a little concern about rain here, though I’m not sure how much of an impact that could have. With the line being what it is, Vegas is saying we’re at risk of the Panthers having like 200 yards of total offense.
49ers at Browns
We have another game with a solid road favorite. Cleveland’s defense is menacing, and we have some real wind and rain issues. You’re playing Christian McCaffrey, and I think George Kittle in most situations, too, but the downfield WRs are a little trickier.
Cleveland’s pretty simple in this type of setting. Quinshon Judkins is a decent play, but is touchdown-dependent for a 4.5-point underdog in a game with a very low 35.5 over/under, so we’re not talking about the best play imaginable.
And then in the passing game, the rookies for the Browns are probably starting to work into a bit more projected target share lately, but obviously the big question is the size of the pie. I’m on the record with Shedeur Sanders as thinking he’s both not great and also at least capable of slinging the ball around a little bit in a way that doesn’t mean there will inevitably be zero receiving value. But when you have that situation with weather like this, you want to be heavily on the side of sitting the players to see more about Sanders. This isn’t a good spot to be trying to predict things before we’ve seen them. If Sanders does have the ability to support good receiving production on a longer timeline, that can be leveraged in Week 14 or further down the line.
Texans at Colts
C.J. Stroud is back, which is an upgrade to the passing options, though Davis Mills was a decent style comp who was getting a lot of pass volume off as a dropback passer with limited mobility. Stroud I’d expect to be more accurate on average, but it’s not some massive shift, which is also not saying Stroud has fallen to the point of being compared to Mills because that’s not true. It’s a style point for how it impacts the receiving value to the team, and a note that Mills has been somewhat surprisingly not terrible (as another big-armed, pocket passer that’s been true for recently), so good for him on that. But he’s also not been great or anything.
Jayden Higgins is a classic input vol play who is coming off 68% routes, which was 7 percentage points higher than his season high in games Nico Collins has played. When Collins missed the one game in Week 8, Higgins did get up to 76%, which was also a good sign then, but then hew as back down the next few weeks. Because we’re this far into the season and he hasn’t take a big jump forward other than when Collins missed, it’s harder to buy into extreme untapped upside, and more likely to be that the Texans are just going to maintain this rotation all year. Not every team waits on their rookies then unleashes them. But Higgins is also coming off a season-high 9 targets, and has at least 7 in three straight games. With his big frame, he’s now caught four TDs this year, including three in the past five games. There’s probably not “rookie takes over the passing game” upside, but he’s still someone you can lean into as an emerging player.
Woody Marks remains a rookie who has taken over a role, because Nick Chubb ain’t it anymore. But Marks also hasn’t been great, so it’s more of a volume play, and I would categorize myself as concerned he’ll lose goal-line work the next time they are down there. I’d still bet on him, to be clear, but think it’s quite possible they go to Chubb or another direction like throwing.
The big question with the Colts is what the deal is with Daniel Jones, who has a fractured leg. Injury experts seem less concerned than I immediately am, and I saw it’s not a weight-bearing bone or something. I don’t know anything other than he’s expected to play, and that seems insane. The Texans are a fierce defense that I literally compared to the Bountygate Saints team last year because of how they seemed to be actively trying to injure players. Call that what you will — call me a wimp or whatever if you’re a Texans’ fan — but I’m legitimately worried about Jones being knocked out of this game early because of a low hit. That doesn’t mean it’s extremely likely or anything. Do with that what you will; remember, in this column, I’m just sharing stuff I’m thinking about.