I don’t have a great intro for this week, and I’m trying to fit this in a day early because of the Saturday tripleheader, but that brings TNF into the piece and there are no byes, so I’m going to move into all 16 games and talking about all 32 teams pretty quickly. I did put together a longer writeup in last week’s intro talking through a ton of process-related stuff regarding starts and sits, if you’re looking for more theoretical discussion to help with the all-important playoff decisions.
I always note that I do this piece quickly, and to defer to good projections over my thoughts, because I’m talking through ranges of outcomes, not what I believe to be explicitly great predictions. I know this feels like passing the buck, but it’s a very real sentiment: I want you to make your own decisions, and play what you believe to be the right calls. I’m happy to write up some thoughts for consideration. Let’s get into it.
Chargers at Raiders (Thursday)
This game looks rough, with a 35.5 total. I’ve been talking for weeks about the Chargers having nothing beyond Keenan Allen, and now he’s out, as is Justin Herbert. This becomes an entirely different team, and a much worse one. I do expect a decent number of checkdowns for Austin Ekeler and wouldn’t shy away from him completely.
The Raiders’ side is rough, too, but I’ve noted recently that if Josh Jacobs misses, I think it’ll be a bit more of a committee than it feels like, at least in terms of the HVTs. Ameer Abdullah has played a decent bit on passing downs at times, and I could see him getting a little early-down work, too. Zamir White will be the obvious consideration, but I would expect mostly low-value touches. There’s always potential for a high snap share role and particularly for some goal-line work if he’s the early-down back and they get down there, so there are scenarios where I could see using him. But I’d probably shy away in most cases.
Vikings at Bengals (Saturday)
I’m playing Justin Jefferson as normal. I don’t know what to expect about of Nick Mullens other than he’s a pocket passer and that should help the attempts floor.
Ty Chandler is a big discussion point, and I wrote this week I do think he could be in for one of those big snap shares we see when the team has a big trust gap between the No. 2 and No. 3. We saw it with the Patriots and Ezekiel Elliott last week. I’m not as confident that will happen here, but it’s a scenario I’m definitely considering possible. One complication is they trust C.J. Ham in pass protection so he sometimes plays as the lone back in long down-and-distance situations. It wouldn’t surprise me if Ham took a decent number of routes as a result.
I’m still pretty skeptical of Jake Browning’s production due to the 4.5 aDOT both of the past two weeks, and I’d be a little bit cautious with the WRs as a result. It does need to be said he’s not playing bad, and has shown he’s at least competent and can keep the offense from cratering, which is something, even if I’m not buying the height of his production the past two weeks.
Steelers at Colts (Saturday)
Mitchell Trubisky was pretty bad last week, but so was the Colts’ defense against Browning. I’m not really sure what to expect here, but definitely think there’s downside risk after last week’s debacle. Trubisky’s probably a bench risk as well, with Mason Rudolph getting some more practice reps this week.
The Colts are what they are right now, with Zack Moss playing a ton and Michael Pittman really consolidating the No. 1 target share. Josh Downs is a desperation upside play.
Broncos at Lions (Saturday)
The Broncos are well known, and their high pass TD rate is the only thing to note as their personnel are the same. Javonte Williams does continue to see plenty of work.
The Lions haven’t changed much lately, either. I do expect them to bounce back from last week, but the Broncos’ defense has been tough of late.