Input Volatility, Week 16
Game-by-game thoughts
I really didn’t realize how cramped the schedule was going to get until we got here, but it’s tough to get the content out I want to, and is going to be way tougher next week. I had my regular Ship Chasing show last night, and we’ll have one next Thursday on the 26th, and then I have family stuff planned on both the 24th and 25th (I’ve mentioned I have a big family, so different parts of it those days, as well as us doing our own little four-person family unit Christmas on Wednesday morning). And then one more thing at my mom’s house on Friday night, since that’s basically all my schedule allowed, but which also makes it so that I’m not sure when to get the articles written and the podcasts done given there are games starting at 10 a.m. my time that next day on Saturday. (Thanks, NFL scheduling department.)
That’s the deal today, as well. A game at 10 a.m. tomorrow, and because Christmas is next week, I’ve been running around since finishing up with you guys earlier this week and trying to take care of all those little things. Anyway, I’m starting with all this to say that the below isn’t going to be great, but to really encourage you to listen to Stealing Bananas for the best of it. Even if you’re not a big podcast listener (like me), I’d recommend it, as Shawn and I just got done recording a special look-ahead episode this morning, and we went just over the hour-and-a-half mark and wound up getting through and at least commenting on every game matchup, and how we expected them to go from a big-picture perspective, with tons of thoughts on the individual player level, matchups, game environment, weather, injuries, all of it. It was one of my favorite episodes of the whole season.
(If you don’t have time to get through all of it, we talked through some of the games we were most intrigued by in a little more depth early in the show, including Seahawks-Vikings, but then really it was the second half of the show where we tried to do our version of a speed round and got through more of the games in a quicker timeframe.)
I’d link, but it’s so freshly recorded it’s not posted yet as of me typing these words (it might be out by the time you read them, though!). I’ll hit on some of it below, but keep an eye out for that one.
Let’s get to the games. As always, I offer these considerations solely because you guys have asked, and because I might have a thought about a different part of a range of outcomes in some cases, relative to what you’re seeing elsewhere. I don’t offer these thoughts because I think they will be explicitly great predictions, and it’s basically just me going game-by-game and throwing out what hits me.
In the playoffs, you should absolutely do more research than what I’m about to write — including listening to Stealing Bananas! — and you should absolutely trust your research more than my casual thoughts. You should also dig into the injury reports, and get a feel for what the various workloads could look like, as well as the weather situations, with a lot of cold-weather games though nothing that looks brutal, as of this writing.
Texans at Chiefs
These teams are who they are, and keep in mind this is an outdoor game where the over/under has fallen to the low 40s because of the offensive struggles on both sides. I’m hopeful, but not necessarily wildly optimistic, we’ll see some fun fantasy stuff, and Patrick Mahomes is expected to play.
Steelers at Ravens
Without George Pickens, the Steelers aren’t getting a lot of love from the market, as they are 6.5-point underdogs despite being division leaders who beat the Ravens outright just a handful of weeks ago. I probably still like the Ravens to cover that, as I don’t think this Steelers team is great without Pickens. Perhaps their defense can keep them in it.
Rashod Bateman is questionable, which could lead to more Tylan Wallace and Devontez Walker snaps, but nothing that’s super leverageable.
Giants at Falcons
I talked about Michael Penix at length in the aforementioned podcast, but basically I think what he does well is throw intermediate passes that he’ll likely be tasked with throwing. That’s a slight bump for Drake London, in my opinion, though I think this will be a run-heavy game for the Falcons with Bijan Robinson the real upside guy.
Drew Lock isn’t good, but Shawn had some optimistic notes on Malik Nabers anyway, though certainly we’re both a little worried about the Giants in a game where they are 8.5-point underdogs (with a low over/under) to a rookie QB’s first career start.
Cardinals at Panthers
I talked through Jalen Coker playing on the outside in Stealing Signals, and with Xavier Legette out, I’d expect Coker and Adam Thielen to be the intriguing volatility upside types here. It’s also a great spot for Chuba Hubbard.
The Panthers have given up 10 receiving touchdowns to TEs, most in the NFL, but while I’m tempted to declare this is definitely the week Trey McBride will score, I have to note that the majority of those went to TE2 types, including Noah Gray and Foster Moreau both catching two, and guys like Ben Sinnott, Nate Adkins, and Adam Trautman counting toward that number. None of Brock Bowers, Travis Kelce, Cade Otton, Cole Kmet, Jake Ferguson, Kyle Pitts, or Mike Gesicki scored against them. It’ll probably just be James Conner against this run defense but I’m still hopeful, and you’re obviously starting McBride.