I realized this week that I never wrote anything about my in-season plans for this year, which I have in the past to let you guys know what to expect. And it seems there are a decent number of new subscribers this year, which is great (welcome!), but it means I should probably run through some things.
First of all, here’s that post from last year if you’re interested, where I laid out the in-season schedule and some of the related considerations, which looks pretty similar this year. One of the big things is while I’d love to be able to answer all the questions I receive each week, the writeups are a significant time investment, and I’ve learned over the years I can’t do everything. My writeups are Mondays and Tuesdays, obviously, and aren’t looking ahead necessarily, and there’s a whole different set of analysis that would need to be done to predict this week and feel comfortable adding value with start/sits and those things.
But to write the team-by-team Stealing Signals posts I do on Monday and Tuesday and then turn around and try to do a bunch of late-week content previewing the week would be unsustainable (trust me, I’ve tried it, and it’s killed me by the end of the season). I want to be able to offer some thoughts, which is why I have this late-week post, but I also can’t recommend enough resources like Pat Kerrane’s Walkthrough, anything Shawn Siegele and the gang are doing at RotoViz (Shawn’s in-season Zero RB article is fantastic, and a new edition just dropped yesterday), anything the ETR guys are doing (Michael Leone’s projections are my go-to as the best in the industry), and anything Peter Overzet is doing content-wise, which I know one question I got was around Underdog’s weekly formats and he has a great new series out with the Badge Bros called “Off and On the Clock” which dives into the Battle Royale format, and then he has a great DFS video with JMToWin, and lots more.
But here are some other resources we’ve developed — and huge shoutout to the Stealing Signals community here — to help you guys out.
Anyone who likes to chat about their teams should join the Discord (if this link expires, just hit me up in the comments and I’ll drop a new one) where there’s a constant discussion around waivers, start/sits, trades, dynasty, and so much more. This convo thrives despite me having said since the beginning I won’t be able to be in there much; it was created by request for Signals subs to have a place to interact with one another. Looking at it now, just this morning (I write this at 8 am pacific time) there have been discussions in the main chat, start/sit, trades, and dynasty channels. It’s an incredibly cool environment if I do say so myself. I’m able to get more involved there over the offseason.
Every Tuesday night, I’m doing a private livestream for Signals Gold members. Signals Gold is a subscription tier; if you want to upgrade, please hit me up and I can cancel your current sub with a pro-rated refund so you can do that (I think this is currently the easiest way to do this, as Substack works out the kinks with this tier system). Over a few August chats and then streams the past two Tuesday evenings after Part 2 of Stealing Signals drops, I’ve been able to get to every question I’ve received on those livestreams, in lively back and forths with the Signals Gold subs that have lasted about 90 minutes. Last year, I did a written Wednesday Q&A; this stream has replaced that, and the subs that have shown up to it have had really positive feedback about how we’re thinking through probabilistic scenarios and range-of-outcomes-based thought processes in real time, so I’ve been really glad to hear that. The shift was more so I could cut back on my writing after Stealing Signals is out, and I’ve really enjoyed the different media style myself, as well. (One note on these streams is I do try to keep the discussions general — so this week we did a lot on Jerome Ford, and last week we spent a ton of time on Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams as the big waiver guys — rather than this being a ton of specific questions for people’s own teams.)
So those are the best ways to use your Stealing Signals sub to drill down to more specific questions about your individual teams and players. One thing I absolutely love about both the Discord and the comments sections is the people who obviously read the work around here and process fantasy in a very Signals way that are willing to help out and answer fellow subs’ questions, just to give another voice. That’s what the Discord is built on, and then shout-out Brecken who I saw doing it in the comments this week.
I’ll also say, though, that if you were hoping I’d be available to answer more direct questions about your team, and that was part of signing up for the newsletter, that I have a no-questions-asked refund policy for any reason at basically any time. I’ve issued thousands of dollars of refunds over the years without hassle, because it’s been a driving part of this whole thing that I don’t want anyone paying for something they don’t want, or where they aren’t getting what they were expecting. This newsletter is powered by people who want to support the work, and there have been enough people that have appreciated it and enjoyed it that it’s becoming a sustainable thing, which is incredible. But I will never make this a strictly capitalistic enterprise, and to be extremely blunt, it’s not worth it for me or for you if you don’t want to be subscribed here — I would much rather refund you and allow you on your way, no catch, just because I want my time focused on the subscribers who want to be here.
My in-season plans
So just to lay it all out somewhere, here’s what I’m doing each week, both here and elsewhere if you want to know where else my audio content and other stuff will be:
Monday and Tuesday Stealing Signals posts recapping every player from every game over several thousands of words.
This Input Volatility post, which will typically post Saturday. If you’re not familiar with the concept of “input volatility,” it builds off the idea of inputs into projections, and where there might be difficult spots to quantify in a projection. That is relevant because, unlike season-long projections where I’m not relying heavily on the outputs for actionability (i.e. the specific projected points aren’t the most important thing), in-season projections can be much sharper because the inputs are mostly known going into the week (whereas so much of season-long strategy is understanding the inputs will change in ways we can’t predict). But in terms of start/sits, my recommendation is always to consult strong projections that weigh the relevant information, because the players that will be active and the Vegas lines and everything else is known for that week. (I do often get asked about where to find good projections, and I reference Leone and ETR, but then I also get asked about good free projections, and that’s sort of a difficult thing; one of the deals with really good projections is the whole DFS industry, where literally millions are won every week, runs on them, so they are very valuable.) Anyway, this post, when it gets into player discussion, is typically looking at what the various inputs might be in projections and saying, “Here’s something I think might be sneaky this week, where the general assumption around Player X based on what he’s done the past couple weeks is maybe misleading.” In other words, there’s volatility with the inputs, often a player’s specific usage expectations.
The Signals Gold livestream Q&As on Tuesday nights.
Stealing Bananas episodes recorded Sunday nights and Thursday mornings.
Our brand new Thursday Night Football watch-alongs over at Ship Chasing. If this is the first you’re hearing about this, and you’ve ever thought, “Hey, it would be fun to watch a game with Ben,” that’s literally what this is. Pat, Pete, and I are partnering with Underdog for these streams all year, where we are joined by some great guests, sweat some TNF Underdog Pick ‘Ems during the game, and break down the action live. The first two have been an absolute blast, so come join us next week.
My Stealing Lines work with Dalton Kates, which includes betting picks on sides and totals every week, as well as more Underdog Pick ‘Em entries for Sunday and Monday, as we’re partnering with Underdog over there as well.
So that’s the weekly schedule. I’ve managed to carve out a little more time this year to spend with my now 12- and 8-year old daughters, and also just to recharge a little from Wednesday to Saturday, which is necessary given my Sunday-Tuesday sprint each week.
Questions this week
I mentioned above that I unfortunately can’t get in the habit of answering all the questions I get every week, but there were a few frequently asked questions this week that I wanted to hit on here. The first hits on more about my content schedule, while the second is about what to do with the Jets.
From fm:
suggestion, keep updating the draft rankings for a defacto in-season rankings that wouldn't take you long to do, saves you all these types of questions, and provides amazing amazing value to the readers as a referenceable go to. Also a great weekly thought exercise for yourself. (sorry if this has been suggested before)
From Kyle:
Do you track player rankings/values throughout the season? It would be cool to see how you're adjusting tiers each week - this would help a ton with trade valuation/roster re-balancing throughout the season!
This is indeed a thing that’s been suggested before, and I really understand and appreciate how helpful it would be, but I wanted to take a minute to explain that ranking a long list of players does actually take an incredible amount of time. Or else, as is the case in some instances I have to imagine, the person doing the ranking is not actually considering the true one vs. one decisions people are going to be making when they look at those rankings. And if you’re not actually considering all those little micro-decisions people will be using the rankings for, then your product (the rankings) doesn’t serve its purpose.
Again, I really do understand that this could be super valuable. But if I was going to offer weekly rest-of-season rankings, I’d need to make that a significant part of what I was planning to accomplish each week. I’ve done it before. You can’t just set it and forget it. Injuries and daily shifts — throughout the week — of roster moves and expected playing time keep the near-term expectations updating constantly. Weighing that with longer-term implications takes considerable thought. I try to do these things when I write Stealing Signals every week; give as much information as possible on every situation so my stance is known.
There is obviously far more utility to keeping updated rankings during draft season, so I do that, and those of you who used those rankings know I updated them basically daily. I also drafted my own teams directly off of them, and was drafting probably at least five days a week for the final month or so, which allowed me an obvious pathway to editing my rankings, where I was using them myself constantly.
In terms of in-season stuff, I don’t actually play in a lot of leagues anymore where trades are even allowed. I’m in a lot more of the higher-stakes stuff where those types of moves aren’t allowed, and I’m a neglectful dynasty manager and don’t really even consider trades in my home leagues (all due to time). I have played this game for nearly 25 years and I spent the first 15+ of that obsessing over the weekly trade dilemmas, and trying to buy-and-sell my way to a monster team, so believe me when I say I totally get it. But my point is simply a practical one: You don’t want that advice from me in 2023.
My whole goal with this newsletter is to do things that I think move the needle, and do them really well, and then not give you too much filler, or “noise.” Part of subscribing here is you’ll have additional work to do to manage your team, and to apply the things I’m writing about and discussing. Some of that might be done by consulting other resources around the industry (like the many I referenced above). But it doesn’t help anyone for me to lose sleep half-assing rankings that aren’t actually going to lead you to strong trade decisions. Doesn’t mean I don’t totally understand the question and how useful that would be, because I do. This is hard-won perspective where I know from years of overdoing it, that I can’t do everything well. This is a big reason I stopped doing DFS content after 2021, when I decided in 2022 to start Stealing Lines with its sports betting focus; I don’t believe I can do everything — at the depth I’d need to, to do it well — year in and year out. I have nothing but immense respect for those that can.
From Brecken:
Man, my heavy Hall/Wilson exposure makes me really hope you're right that the Jets find another solution. In the meantime, you just rolling those guys out there in managed leagues and hoping talent can overcome situation, or are you looking for alternatives? How about the Falcons duo? And if you're trying not to start them, what caliber of player is the breaking point for you?
From Rtk137:
As someone rostering Garrett Wilson, I sure hope they do replace Zach Wilson soon. In that case would it make more sense to hold and hope whoever his replacement is can provide better quality targets?
From Mel:
I'm curious, in a league where I can only start 2 RBs, would you recommend still running Breece out there weekly for the home run ability over a guy like Allgeier?
I made it a point to talk to Shawn about how to approach the Jets on the second episode of Stealing Bananas this week — we picked up the Jets conversation right about the 43-minute, 30-second mark here — so definitely give that a listen.
But in terms of how specifically I’m approaching these guys, I’m definitely concerned, but I’m also very much holding and being willing to play wait and see a little bit. But to be clear, if you’re in a position where you have viable alternatives, I’m very willing to bench these guys. They are such massive talents, and I know I mentioned in Week 1 that I benched Breece Hall in some spots and it was unfortunately costly, but the fact of the matter very simply is that Zach Wilson at quarterback negatively impacts their range of outcomes right now to such a degree that I don’t believe you’re likely to be missing out on a major ceiling to have them on your bench.
I do however think they can still make plays, and Garrett Wilson in particular has done that on his TDs both of the past two weeks. If I was in a bind, I’d play them as talent-based swings despite situation. I’m treating the Atlanta guys similarly — I’ve already sat Kyle Pitts for guys like Sam LaPorta and Hunter Henry in Week 2, but then I’m doing that in part because I have a good amount of Pitts and I’m playing him in other spots where I don’t have as good of alternatives. I’m not sitting Pitts for someone like Durham Smythe, who I do like. I’m not sitting Pitts for underperforming TEs, even if they are in a good spot, like a Tyler Higbee or something.
For Wilson and Hall, the caliber of player where they’d go from starts to sits is similar, but I think I went right to Pitts because it’s easier to make the point when talking through TEs, given there are fewer of them. It’s also tricky this week because there will likely be some weather in New Jersey, which I want to talk about more in the next section, but that is an element that makes starting Wilson and Hall that much more difficult. To be clear, though, I will still be starting both in some places this week where I don’t have adequate alternatives. It’s kind of like the WR Window cutoff — I’m not playing waiver wire guys over talents like these, and I’m probably also not playing boring vets, unless I can truly tell myself a story about their weekly ceiling.
Input Volatility
Weather reports
There’s been talk this week of the impact of Tropical Storm Ophelia on Sunday’s games in Baltimore, Washington, and New Jersey. Sometimes these things get projected early in the week, and then some people don’t necessarily track the weather through the weekend well.
One of the best ways to think about weather that I’ve heard, and I think I’m stealing this from my buddy Michael Leone, is that it isn’t a consistent dip in production (it might get described as 10% reduction in fantasy scoring or something, but that’s not how to think of it). Instead, it’s more that in something like 80% of circumstances, there’s no major impact, and the game’s ability to put up fantasy stats isn’t really affected, and then in 20% the impact is pretty large, such that offenses in the game really struggle, and the end result is an average of 10% (or whatever) but where that number is a bit misleading because of the distribution of how you wind up with an average 10% reduction. In other words, if you always shy away from weather, you’re going to be glad you did maybe one in five times, but then the other four out of five times you’re at risk of feeling pretty dumb for letting weather influence your call.
And while I’m not at all a weatherman and you should take literally anyone else’s opinions on weather before mine, just checking the hourly weather for both Baltimore and Washington, things might start to clear up a bit by kickoff tomorrow. On the hourly report, there’s wind up to 20 mph today, and overnight and into tomorrow morning. Wind is the major consideration for fantasy production, but it does seem like it might die down to 9 or 10 mph by kickoff in both cities. Typically, 15 mph is the cutoff for where wind should be really concerning.
Additionally, while there’s expected to be heavy rain, the hourly percent chance of rain in both cities falls from the nineties in the morning to in some cases the forties by the end of the game. So those two games might be rainy, but the wind doesn’t seem like it’ll be a major factor, and the rain might also die off. That’s not a majorly concerning picture overall.
By contrast, the Jets-Patriots’ game up in East Rutherford, NJ does hold 90%+ chances of rain with wind around 13 mph through the game tomorrow, as it seems the storm won’t have cleared that far. So:
I’d be more cautious with Jets and Patriots, and it’s easy to want to fade Jets right now given the Zach Wilson impact. Breece Hall might be more startable in a pinch than I’d expect Garrett Wilson to be. Rhamondre Stevenson as well, and maybe Hunter Henry because of the generally lower depth of his targets, but probably not DeVante Parker in a tough matchup.
I’m actually looking at the Ravens and Colts as an underrated shootout spot — I wrote this offseason about Gardner Minshew and believing he’d be great for Colts’ skill position players, and we’ve seen this offense operate with tempo, but Minshew is going to get more called dropbacks than rookie Anthony Richardson might have, and more importantly he’s going to turn more dropbacks into pass attempts through delivering the ball on time or getting to his checkdowns, whereas Richardson might have scrambled. I also expect Minshew to be more accurate than Richardson has been. Minshew’s aDOT is often lower and underneath, but especially for PPR leagues, I would say to expect a nice target floor and big reception potential for Michael Pittman, as well as boosts to the receiving potential for guys like Zack Moss and Josh Downs. Meanwhile, the Ravens appear willing to play with tempo as well, and that might speed up over time. This is a big spot to see just how fast-paced and pass-heavy they’ll be under Todd Monken, but there’s real potential this game turns into one with a ton of play volume. With Odell Beckham out, targets could be a bit more consolidated, although the presence of guys like Nelson Agholor and Devin Duvernay might make it tough to trust a Rashod Bateman. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw Bateman’s first big game of the year here. Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews are both nice plays. With Justice Hill also out, Gus Edwards is very appealing, although I’d expect we’ll see Flowers deployed in the backfield some on passing downs — creative usage for him around the line of scrimmage could help him to a big target share, more like Week 1 than Week 2. Melvin Gordon might also mix in, particularly in passing situations.
To wrap up the weather games, I’m mostly treating Bills-Commanders like a normal game. There might be some concern, but Sam Howell has played well enough through two games — and in an exciting, fantasy-rich way — that a matchup with Josh Allen has real upside potential for everyone. So from a game environment standpoint, it’s a bit of a low floor, high ceiling type thing (similar to how I’d describe Colts-Ravens, although the play volume in Baltimore feels like an even higher floor there, which isn’t to say the Bills-Commanders’ game can’t have a ton of play volume, either). Anyway, Logan Thomas is out, which could help Terry McLaurin and/or Jahan Dotson consolidate targets a bit more here, and I think you can play your normal Bills, though I imagine many have Gabe Davis in a tiebreak and he’s one I might shy away from a bit — if I have a legit good alternative — given his high aDOT and Allen’s sometimes erratic downfield passing even when there aren’t big weather concerns.
Other Input Volatility spots
The Cardinals have been feisty through two games, but it wouldn’t surprise me if their whole offense cratered this week against Dallas. I would have a hard time playing floor guys like James Conner and Zach Ertz when the team floor could be so bad as to prevent them from being able to score (similar to how the Giants’ offensive stats looked on TNF, when they gained just 150 total yards of offense).
I’m fascinated by the idea of Kyle Pitts as the squeaky wheel this week for Atlanta, after the Falcons seemed to force feed Drake London a bit last week, including a WR screen on the first snap of the game. It felt like they did similar with Pitts last year at times, after the lack of targets got to be deafening. Smith was quicker to respond this year with London, and he seems at least vaguely influenced by the incessant questions in his media sessions (if that sounds silly, I promise you he wouldn’t be the first such influenced coach).