I’ve written way too much about way too much this week. Just an absolutely absurd amount of writing. If you read it all, you deserve some kind of Stealing Signals achievement badge or something. I’m legitimately impressed at your dedication to nonsense takes. (If you didn’t read it all, congrats on being a well-adjusted human.)
Let’s get right to the games. As always, I offer these considerations solely because you guys have asked, and because I might have a thought about a different part of a range of outcomes in some cases than what it being caught in projections, or you’re seeing elsewhere. I don’t offer these thoughts because I think they will be explicitly great predictions, and it’s basically just me going game-by-game and throwing out what hits me.
Here are the things I’m thinking about as I’m setting lineups for Week 3.
Vikings vs. Steelers (9:30 am ET, Dublin)
The Vikings dominated last week because of two defensive touchdowns, so Carson Wentz only threw 20 passes. But he looked comfortable within an offense that’s made a lot of QBs look comfortable, and we’ve seen a lot of reclamation project QBs find success in these McShanahan schemes. I’m optimistic.
Because of that, I do think you can go right to Jordan Addison. There aren’t enough WRs producing big lines right now, and Addison is budding star who had a legitimately breakout second half to his age-22 season last year, much like a guy who has taken that up a notch in Year 3 in 2025 in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. As I detailed in Offseason Stealing Signals, Addison closed 2025 with 6+ targets in each of his final nine games, totaling 70 targets to Justin Jefferson’s 80 in that span. On the flip side is the idea “it’s hard to board a moving train,” and whether he’ll need a little time to make his mark in 2025. I’d be more concerned about that if the passing game had been humming, but it struggled over the first two weeks and then was good but had lower volume last week. Addison’s explosive ability is a welcome addition to spice things up.
I don’t think that optimism means you can’t play T.J. Hockenson or anything, and Jefferson and Jordan Mason are great plays. Pittsburgh’s fifth in yards per play allowed through three weeks, and they haven’t really played a stretch of super tough offenses with the Jets, Seahawks, and Patriots.
I don’t have a lot on Pittsburgh’s side. Jaylen Warren should get a lot of work, though he’s technically questionable so if he were to sit, Kenneth Gainwell could presumably get a ton, and then Kaleb Johnson would probably factor in, as well. It doesn’t seem like Warren is a risk to miss, but if it happened, I don’t think Johnson’s timeline would necessarily speed up enough for him to be a good option.
D.K. Metcalf is obviously the No. 1 passing-game weapon, but there’s uncertainty with how things will be distributed in this Arthur Smith offense and that’s not really volatility to play into.
Commanders at Falcons
Jayden Daniels will be out again in Week 4, along with Terry McLaurin. Marcus Mariota performed competently last week, and this is a great case of an offensive design still working because the backup can be a pretty good stylistic fit for what the starter does. But the way to think of it is the whole range of outcomes basically shifts downward. The floor outcomes are worse, and the ceiling outcomes are not going to be quite as good, including as it relates to play volume and aggressiveness. But last week we did see 400 yards of offense, with over 200 of it coming on the ground.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt led the team in snaps and routes and still seems like a really strong play if healthy, but that’s not clear as he was a DNP on both Wednesday and Thursday. As I write this, he has been reported as being at and participating in Friday’s practice, but his status isn’t known. Chris Rodriguez has quite a bit of intriguing upside if JCM isn’t healthy enough to go. If everything seems fine with JCM, I’d be fine rolling with him, but the DNPs are not easy to ignore.
Darnell Mooney had strong volume in his return last week and seems like he’s ready to go as a Week 4 option. Drake London should still be fine. Probably Kyle Pitts becomes a little less significant if Mooney is hitting.
Saints at Bills
Not much to discuss on the Saints’ side. They are huge road underdogs and their projections should be muted as a result, but we know pace and concentration have been helpful for Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson.
Buffalo’s the opposite. Big home favorites, so lots of potential for scoring, except a lack of pace or concentration creates some real difficulty pinning down where it might come from outside James Cook (and of course Josh Allen). Keon Coleman probably still has the most favorable fantasy role for a ceiling week.
Browns at Lions
Quinshon Judkins draws a difficult enough matchup that he’s not an absolute must start, but the fact we’re talking about him as being close to that level obviously says a lot about role.
Jerry Jeudy has been a massive disappointment, and I’m genuinely not sure what to expect in the near term. Week 1 wasn’t awful (8-5-66), though it featured some late production just to get there, and then the whole offense has looked bad against the Ravens and Packers. I’m playing him where I don’t have good alternatives, but probably going away from him where I do. Joe Flacco hasn’t necessarily been great for the passing game, and it’s possible Dillon Gabriel could actually be an improvement.
Whether to play the Browns’ TEs would be a case-by-case situation because of how different your alternatives can be at TE. I’d probably have David Njoku ahead of Harold Fannin in the short term, though.
The Lions are straightforward. Jameson Williams’ volume has been a bummer but you know what he is, and an eruption could come at any time.
Titans at Texans
I probably need to see life from the Titans before I feel good about anyone, but Elic Ayomanor and Chig Okonkwo remain the biggest potential upside swings beyond Calvin Ridley, who feels like a total nothing or else a rebound to a huge ceiling, with nothing in between.
Christian Kirk didn’t look great last week but he’s probably the best unaccounted for upside play in the offense right now, which is saying something about how Houston doles out playing time mostly to veteran players who lack explosiveness.
The over/under in this game is below 40 and I’d probably lean toward the under with how these offenses have played. It doesn’t feel like a game to chase.