Input Volatility, Week 5, Part 2

Missed Rhamondre/Gibson, plus a good trade theory question

Going to be quick today, but I realized after sending out the full Input Volatility last night that I didn’t feel like I hit on the Patriots’ RBs, which is one of the biggest volatility spots out there. No one asked me about this, ha, I just had one of those, “I don’t remember writing that section” moments, so I went back to look, and sure enough I wrote up a couple notes on Miami and just moved onto the next game without even touching on the Patriots.

I almost do this kind of a lot, where I think I’m done with the game but I’ve only done one side. Hopefully I don’t actually do it often! But I caught it here, even if I don’t have anything useful to add, because these reports that Rhamondre Stevenson won’t start because of the fumbles but will still play are as vague as you’d expect. There’s just so many ways that could go, but I just wanted to say I could see prioritizing Antonio Gibson having some volume upside if you are in a tight spot and he’s an option, and I could see sitting Stevenson over worries that he might legitimately lose a solid chunk of work.

At the same time, it felt a little like pulling teeth where Jerod Mayo early in the week was saying stuff like, “We’ll look at that,” and then was asked more and was like, “You can’t preach ball security is job security and not care” or whatever that quote was, and then he finally sort of formally said they’d bench him. All that made it fairly clear they still think Stevenson is their best option as a lead back and would prefer he just stops fumbling so they can play him and not have to be asked about it. They don’t actually want to bench him, is what I’m saying. Doesn’t mean they won’t, though. Just a weird one.

I don’t really have anything else on the Patriots or their passing game, except that we’d love to see Drake Maye at some point, and I guess Ja’Lynn Polk is the upside bet if you’re inclined to make one.

I also got asked about Keon Coleman specifically, and I didn’t even mention him by name while talking about the volatility with the Bills’ receiving options with Khalil Shakir out, but sure, he’s a very viable option to get more work here. I didn’t think of him at first because Shakir’s operated at a very low aDOT, while Coleman’s been sort of their primary downfield weapon, but Coleman’s also gotten first-read back-shoulder stuff drawn up for him, and it’s entirely possible the play mix just expands in a way that features more vertical passing for Coleman. So if that’s a guy you’re on the fence about, I wouldn’t say take my omission as a lack of enthusiasm for a potential ceiling. I’m not super into the play, but I get how this could be the rook’s week.

Last thing, and this was a super fun question:

re: rest of season outcomes

i have a lot of Breece Hall shares (and Braelon Allen too, frequently on the same roster...), and in almost every league i get the sense that Ken Walker is gettable in exchange, possibly with a throw-in.

if Ken Walker is a star (he is) should we be more willing to throw out preseason value anchoring, and shop Breece/Bijan Robinson off for him in spots we can?

I loved this from a theory perspective and it’s the main reason I decided to fire up a post. First, here’s what I wrote:

Super tough question. I basically think it's ballsy enough to be plausibly right, but also something that could go wrong so quickly that you have to have the stomach for it. One good Breece game and one Walker floor game and you're talking about the values reverting quickly. It's not just preseason value anchoring here because with Breece it's also a last season production anchor, and then Walker to some respect as well because he wasn't really a superstar in his first two years and we're sort of reading the tea leaves that it's happening for real.

I didn’t mention Bijan there, and sentiment on Bijan is a little less resilient I’d say than Breece right now, because he doesn’t have the electric 2023 in his back pocket that Breece does.

But the reason I wanted to share was just to note that when you think through trades, and you’re thinking about ranges of outcomes and whether you’ll look back on the trade in a few weeks as a good one or a bad one, some of these ideas that feel shrewd are actually somewhat questionable when you really consider the full package of the players, and the “long view” stuff, and not just what we’ve seen in recent weeks. Now of course, you still have to be early to react for shrewd trade offers to work at all, and that’s the whole point of the question. That’s why I find it so fascinating, because as I said, I do think it could be right.

I just thought it was interesting to think through how even at this stage, the barrier for Walker to clear is higher than it appears, because of the longer-view reputations of the players. It’s a hard-to-quantify thing that will nonetheless impact how they are viewed three weeks from now; if Walker is still smashing, people will be buying it a bit more, but if Breece starts smashing, people will immediately be calling him the RB1 rest of season. Conversely, if Breece keeps struggling, a decent leash, and if Walker starts struggling, a whole lot of shouting from the people who were out on his profile that these are the reasons we should have been out on Walker.

This isn’t necessarily the case with every player, relative to their ADP and draft position from August. But I think in this case, the reason you could make these trades in the face of who is actually scoring points is because of these factors. Sometimes it feels like, “Why does no one see this thing I see?” but then in hindsight you look back and are like, “Oh, right, that was the thing everyone else saw.” And I write that in terms of Breece having a great game this week and being atop trade value charts going forward, but it could frankly also be used for the opposite side, which is that maybe you’re kind of getting a discount on where it feels like Walker’s season is heading, at a point where that information feels known but not yet trusted.

It’s a fascinating conversation, and a great question, and I think there’s this potential to look back and feel very stupid for selling Breece Hall “low” in an offense that features RB scoring well, but that there’s also the potential for Walker to just be better than him rest of season for some of the reasons we’ve already seen with how Seattle’s RB scoring has gone vis-a-vis Breece’s own production. I think if it was me, I’d be trying to get something really interesting with that second piece the question alludes to — that you could get Walker plus something for Breece, and if that something has real value to me even as a speculative play, then I think I could fairly easily justify this, even in hindsight if and when Breece scores 19 touchdowns this weekend.

That’s all I got here, just wanted to fire off a quick note.