I’m getting the chance to attend a huge college football game this weekend, where my alma mater Washington is facing their rival Oregon in what I learned this week is the first time these two universities have matched up while both being ranked in the top 10. (That may seem a little hard to believe, at least until you realize that Oregon is so new money that they were only ever ranked in the AP top 10 in three their 82 seasons before 2000. Of course, Washington’s had some lean years since then, and I have to admit Oregon’s gotten the better of us more times than not in the past two decades. It should be a fun one.)
Anyway, I wanted to get ahead of some stuff this week since my Saturday will be pretty busy. And I thought Input Volatility might be a good one, since for this week, the answer to which situations feature some input volatility is “all of them.”
Since we’re getting this in before Thursday night, let’s start there. Keep in mind that the premise of this column is not to predict matchups and those things — since writing Stealing Signals all day Monday and Tuesday, I certainly haven’t done a deep dive on the games. Instead, I’m taking a longer-term view of spots where I think there’s some potential for the game to play out in a way that hasn’t really been reflected in the past usage, which most projections are (rightfully) built on.
Broncos at Chiefs
Jaleel McLaughlin has been fantastic, but Samaje Perine still played substantially more last week, and now Javonte Williams returns, but how close he is to 100% is hard to know. He did practice some last week, and it felt like he might play Sunday, so I’m not overly concerned about the short week after he missed Week 5. I also don’t think McLaughlin is going away, so this might be a true three-back split, albeit one where the offense does feature this position enough that you’d expect at least one to post a solid fantasy score each week. It’s just going to be hard to know which one.
On KC’s side, the question will remain — weekly, until it happens — whether this is the week Kadarius Toney and/or Rashee Rice take over as the top WRs in routes. Rice is especially intriguing, but fell back in Week 5 from routes rates approaching 50% in Weeks 3 and 4, so he’s hard to trust even as the matchup is tasty to try to predict his breakout. I also want to mention Justyn Ross, who had a nice showing in Week 5 and may also start to push for more playing time.
Travis Kelce’s health is a difficult thing to consider but you’re not sitting him. If the Chiefs do blow out the Broncos, it’s possible he has a weak game. But he also had 10 catches on a 55% route rate last week so it’s not like he needs to play a ton to earn volume in this passing game.
Ravens at Titans
I continue to hold out hope Justice Hill will ascend to a pretty clear No. 1 role in the Ravens’ backfield, but it’s felt a little hot-handy the past couple weeks, with Hill doing more last week in part because he looked good early on in the game. If you’re in a real RB pinch, I’d feel better making a bet on him to do that again — especially given his HVT role vis-a-vis Gus Edwards — than needing to go with Edwards.
Commanders at Falcons
I’m not sure that there’s much here that won’t be captured by projections. Jahan Dotson and Kyle Pitts types are going to look sketchy in most projection systems, because they are risky plays.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Everything in Minnesota’s passing game is open season, obviously. Up until last week, Justin Jefferson had led in WOPR every single week, and it wasn’t particularly close, as he is one of the most dominant No. 1 WRs in the league in terms of team share. That also means a ton of vacated volume, and some of that might even shift to more running, but in terms of the passing game, my money is on Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson at the top, as the talent bets, and then K.J. Osborn a step down as a routes volume bet. Brandon Powell would then come in somewhere a half step below Osborn.
D’Onta Foreman will be a big one this week, and if you’re in a shallow league where he didn’t get added, note that Roschon Johnson hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol and legit might not be ready for Sunday, while Khalil Herbert has a high-ankle sprain and is going to miss. We’re looking at the possibility of Foreman getting quite a lot of work this weekend, perhaps upwards of 15-20 touches.