Input Volatility, Week 6
Changes in contingency scenarios
The Friday injury reports this week will be big, and if you’re one of those folks inclined to carefully manage the back end of your bench, I recommend paying close attention. Among the biggest storylines of 2024, the necessity of contingency planning within your roster has been at the forefront again, as injuries — both minor and longer-term — have had their impact on the first half of this fantasy regular season.
We got more of the same last night, as the biggest contingent sensation of the 2024 season, Jordan Mason, went down hard on his shoulder, and was removed from the game and sent back to the locker room, presumably for x-rays. Mason did return for the first snap of the second half, and while that was it for him for the day — an odd sequence — it does suggest the x-rays came back negative and we shouldn’t hear about a collarbone fracture or anything today. We’ll have to wait for more information, but even if nothing’s broken, it’s not a great sign, and the 49ers have a Week 9 bye so you’re talking about two more games that they could easily decide to hold him out of to get him right, and then who knows what happens with Christian McCaffrey on the other side of that.
In his stead, Isaac Guerendo mostly looked like a less-dynamic rusher, as they seemed to lean on a lot of toss plays and trying to get him a head of speed on the edge, but that largely wasn’t working. Until it did. Late in the game, Guerendo did hit on the big play, bursting through the outside on a well-blocked run for an eventual 76-yard gain, while showing off his high-end athleticism. He’ll be a key add next week, but it’s worth noting that even with Mason missing more than half of this game, Guerendo only played 17 snaps, with Patrick Taylor playing 16 snaps of his own, and guys like Kyle Juszczyk and Deebo Samuel mixing in. Juszczyk often plays as the passing-down back, and he also got a between-the-tackles green zone rush late that went for a 6-yard TD.
Guerendo’s still an interesting one, and there will be a bidding war as he’ll be a key add. How they use their backs going forward will depend on Mason’s health (and CMC’s), plus how they can gameplan and get these guys up to speed. But Guerendo becomes just another in a long list of contingency-based plays so far in 2024, which is typically most impactful at RB, but has also included WR plays like Dontayvion Wicks (didn’t hit) and Darius Slayton (did) last week. You could argue Jalen Tolbert with Brandin Cooks out. We also got Tyrone Tracy and Trey Sermon (and Mike Goodson to a lesser extent), plus Kareem Hunt consolidating the Chiefs stuff. Jordan Whittington caught 7 passes, plus Tutu Atwell had some production. Dare Ogunbowale had a decent line. Ameer Abdullah out-produced Alexander Mattison with Zamir White out. Even the Tank Bigsby eruption seems to have been influenced by Travis Etienne not being 100%.
Not all of this was immediately fantasy-relevant, or easy to predict. One trend you’ll see there that’s an important point to internalize is the WRs are much harder to predict than the RBs, in terms of how this sort of thing manifests. But the bigger point, and why I kept listing stuff, was that all of that was just from last week. That was Week 5 in the NFL; I keep saying it, but even I wouldn’t have easily accepted it if you’d told me back in August that all those guys were relevant, or impacted by having a teammate out, in Week 5. We’ve also had like Zach Charbonnet posting two strong starts already, and Ken Walker since returning and reclaiming his clear lead back status.
This is what we talk about when we talk about the chaos of NFL seasons, and how things evolve. There is a flow and a pattern to seasons, and you can go from feeling like a guy has no value, and you’re just holding him for no reason, to suddenly things shifting and the whole thesis playing out, within a matter of one week. If you’re feeling like you wish you already had Guerendo stashed after last night, that’s why we’ve been talking about so many of these other guys. And there are a lot more for this week.
First off, though, I want to emphasize a couple bye-week guys, including what I wrote in Stealing Signals that Blake Corum moving past Ronnie Rivers and getting his first snaps in the normal flow of the game — and in the green zone no less — was huge for what it suggests about the post-bye Rams outlook. The Rivers stuff was confusing, but the hope was Corum was the real handcuff, and was just being brought along a little bit slowly as a rookie. That seems to have been confirmed with Rivers playing zero offensive snaps as Week 5 was the moment where Sean McVay and company turned to Corum as that secondary back. It could become more of a split backfield after the bye, as well, but Corum definitely looks like a high-value handcuff, as we’ve discussed.
Ty Chandler is another backup RB on bye I have to mention. Aaron Jones suffered a hip injury in Week 5, and while the bye was well-timed for him from a health standpoint, it seems like it could linger a bit. I’m not sure how high Chandler’s ceiling is, but the Vikings’ offense has been solid, and he would presumably get a lot of work. Myles Gaskin and fullback C.J. Ham — who they use as a tailback sometimes — would be the only guys spelling him.
Some of the other key contingency stuff I’m watching this week includes:
Gus Edwards DNPs both Wednesday and Thursday, coming off a bye. He seems like a longshot to play, and his injury wasn’t exactly clear; there’s a possibility it’s a little bit of a cover for just wanting to get Kimani Vidal active post-bye. Similar to Corum, it’s plausible the Chargers have still stayed high on Vidal, but have been leaning on their veterans and wanted to get him a month of practice reps before his debut. A reminder that Vidal missed some time in August, which could support that note. I’m extremely eager to see if he’s active, ahead of Hassan Haskins (who presumably has been active ahead of Vidal mostly for special teams reasons), and whether Vidal might actually be used somewhat heavily to spell J.K. Dobbins (as we know Haskins has not been used, which is what gives Vidal more potential as it relates to the uncertainty of what they are thinking inside the building). The alternative is Vidal’s playing time wasn’t imminent, Edwards’ injury is real, Dobbins just plays a ton, Vidal maybe stays behind Haskins, etc. We really can’t know, especially with Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers being so coy about everything, but Vidal’s an intriguing stash this week because you can connect enough dots, and because if that is actually accurate, the payoff could be really great. Remember, he’s an underrated prospect who looked great in preseason and this is a team that’s running the ball well with a lead back who probably can’t handle 300 touches. There’s room for Vidal to be an important part of the offense if he hits.
This one’s less due to other injuries, but Kendre Miller practiced in full last week, wasn’t activated, and then has practiced in full again this week. Similar to the other young backs like Corum, this could be a ramp up plan. We know Dennis Allen had some negative things to say in August, but Miller is a former Day 2 prospect whose profile was strong and whose offseason seemed to indicate the team wanted to rely on him as he entered just his age-22 season. I wrote at the time that Allen’s comments — which were read by the fantasy community largely as if he hates his player — might have mostly been frustration, because he wanted to be able to depend on this guy this year. Time heals, etc., and that may still be on the table, after they started him on IR but he seems to have done all the right stuff, gotten back healthy, and appears ready to go in the short term. Jamaal Williams looks easily passable on the depth chart, and Taysom Hill has been banged up. Alvin Kamara has been, too, and much like the Chargers, the Saints have been run heavy and could really use a young, explosive back to talk on some of the work and perhaps add something. Jury’s out on if Miller can be that, but he’s the other key stash for me right now. (People always love to ask for me to rank them, and I’ll say it’s hard with Vidal and Kendre, but Kendre needs to be activated by 4 pm ET Saturday, so it’s possible that will clear up by Sunday if he’s not activated.)
It sounds like Audric Estime is going to be activated from IR for the Broncos. It’s possible the rookie has a quickly-meaningful role, if all the negativity around Javonte Williams is to be believed. If you were pretty in on Tyler Badie, you’re probably seeing Estime as a great option in that mold. He’s another nice stash in deeper formats.
James Cook seems legitimately questionable, and I guess I think in that one that Ty Johnson would still play quite a bit — and take the valuable passing downs — such that Ray Davis might not be a smash play. But that’s absolutely another situation to monitor, and Davis would still be worth consideration to add. If you need a plug-and-play start, I’d probably lean toward Johnson, but Davis is the guy you’d grab for a longer-term element, where we might get an extended look that suggests really positive stuff could develop.
Rachaad White went from a limited Wednesday to a DNP Thursday and we might get a bigger Bucky Irving workload this weekend if White is forced to miss. I’m not sure how much Sean Tucker might work in, but it seems like Irving could have a shot to have a pretty huge snap share, based on how aggressive they’ve been with his usage relative to other rookies so far.
Zack Moss missed Wednesday and it felt like we might get a Chase Brown workhorse week, but then Moss returned to a limited practice Thursday and Brown popped up on the injury report with his own issue. Being added after the initial report is typically not a good sign, so while Brown did get a limited practice in Thursday, you’d have to look at Thursday as Moss being more likely to suit up, given he progressed to limited rather than fell back to it. This remains one to monitor.
Devin Singletary has gotten multiple limited practices in, and it’s not clear whether that means he’s good to go and is ramping up, or might not be back to 100% and could be held out again for precautionary reasons. Tracy looms as the potential beneficiary. (Malik Nabers’ status is also hard to parse, and it had sounded bad, but I’m getting slightly more hopeful just as of this morning with some of the latest reporting.)
Travis Etienne’s gotten only two limited practices in, and Bigsby looms. Etienne’s final touch came with 14:20 left in the fourth quarter last week. Bigsby had six carries after that point, and D’Ernest Johnson also had three touches, including two receptions (which does suggest he might hurt Bigsby’s upside even if Etienne isn’t a massive factor).
There are more, including guys like Joe Mixon and Rhamondre Stevenson on injury reports, but I will get to all of them in the games. As always, I offer these considerations solely because you guys have asked, and because I might have a thought about a different part of a range of outcomes in some cases, relative to what you’re seeing elsewhere. I don’t offer these thoughts because I think they will be explicitly great predictions, and it’s basically just me going game-by-game and throwing out what hits me.
Jaguars at Bears (early Sunday game, 9:30 ET!)
I mentioned the Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby uncertainty, but there’s not much else there for the Jags. Evan Engram has been getting in limited practices and could return.
I guess the big thing on the Bears’ side is whether Keenan Allen is ever going to make a big impact, or whether Rome Odunze might have runway to just break out over him (although he hasn’t taken advantage in a major way while Allen’s lagged. D.J. Moore looks like the clear top dog, and the other two need to get going. I’m not sure what to expect from either of them at this stage.
Commanders at Ravens
As we move along, more is known, and some teams get easier to think through. I think the Commanders are pretty well known at this point. Austin Ekeler might have a little more upside than is easy to see right now due to limited touch counts recently.
I’d like to believe there’s still upside with Mark Andrews, but I don’t think you can play it outside select situations. Zay Flowers looks like a great start against this Commanders’ secondary.
Cardinals at Packers
I still think it’s possible for Trey McBride to lead this team in targets, and look like a superstar tight end. It hasn’t quite been there so far.
The WR stuff is really tough. Romeo Doubs should be back, but Christian Watson’s health is unclear. If he sits again, Dontayvion Wicks should still have the routes, and it would be justifiable to go back to him, despite the drops.