In case you missed it, I hopped on YouTube for two hours yesterday and answered a ton of questions from Stealing Signals subscribers. You can watch that back here if you’re so inclined; I pulled questions up on screen to do a half-assed job of organizing the topics of the video so you can scroll through and (sort of) see what was discussed.
One of the main topics I wanted to hit on was the Rams’ backfield, and that’s taken another twist today as Sean McVay clarified that Darrell Henderson will be active on Sunday. As of now, it seems like the Rams are going to have four backs active, as they’ve already elevated Royce Freeman and Myles Gaskin, and Zach Evans was already on the active roster.
One other possibility is someone like Gaskin is on the active roster but made into a gameday inactive. But essentially the biggest things I believe here is there’s nothing at all that has suggested the team believes Zach Evans is ready to handle the load. I suggested in the video I did yesterday that their having him on the active roster for the entirety of the year so far is the biggest reason people assumed he’d be the next man up, but that it might have just been the Rams not wanting him to get poached off the practice squad (like they poached Gaskin from Minnesota’s practice squad), because Evans is a longer-term investment.
But in terms of trusting a guy to handle all the little things this weekend, including pass blocking and knowing all the assignments, we have Evans — who wasn’t getting reps over or even alongside Ronnie Rivers, behind Kyren Williams — and then three veterans who have either played in similar offenses or across a lot of different teams, where they whole reason a guy like Freeman is still kicking around is his ability to plug into these types of situations and not be a disaster (that and special teams, but it’s not just special teams).
Anyway, Evans is perhaps the biggest “input volatility” guy of the season. He could certainly lead this backfield on Sunday, and most projections systems I’ve seen are projecting it that way, perhaps by default (because it’s not clear which of the three veterans it would be if it weren’t Evans). But I just mentioned the possibility of Gaskin being a gameday inactive, and honestly it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if that was instead Evans. Do I think that’s going to happen, given he’s been active the past two weeks and has played a little on special teams? No. That’s obviously a crazy assertion, that a RB who has been active will suddenly be inactive because the other two RBs playing ahead of him got hurt.
And yet, as completely backward as that is, the idea would be if the Rams can’t justify holding four RBs, they need the three they do make active to be the three that are most ready to help them this week, because whoever gets the first crack isn’t going to be as reliably entrenched as Kyren Williams was, so they need to be able to pivot in-game if things aren’t going well. At least, I’m throwing out a logical thought process that I could see being used to arrange who is active on gameday.
Personally, I think Evans should be very involved. He’s the upside play; the one who could be explosive and dynamic. But I’m not sure Sean McVay is worried about that as much as just not messing things up for Matthew Stafford and the receivers, and then going and getting 3 or 4 yards against light boxes if they’ve thrown well enough to open up some running lanes. Probably Evans will be active; like I said, what I’ve suggested is kind of nuts. But on this heavy bye week, I do think you want to consider having an alternative.
My actual expectation for Evans is probably something like 5-7 touches, and only like 10-12 snaps overall, with at least one and possibly more of the veterans playing quite a bit more in terms of snap volume and covering the passing downs. Probably either Freeman or Gaskin would be my guess for the passing downs, with Henderson being Evans’ competition for rushing. Gaskin could be competition there, as well, and obviously even Freeman, but his role feels like the narrowest in terms of a range of outcomes, where I’d peg Freeman as likely having a decent role at worst, but at best being a high-snaps guy with relatively few touches, where he kind of just pass-blocked all game, like we saw when Emari Demercado led the Cardinals’ backfield in snaps last week but notched just three touches. I’m not saying Freeman’s ceiling is three touches, but in terms of overall usage, it’s probably a lot of empty snaps in his high-end outcomes.
Ultimately, I think all four guys have pretty wide ranges! I said at the top that Evans is maybe the biggest input volatility guy of the season, but really it’s this whole position group. It’ll be important to continue reacting to the news; we might get something positive about Evans that completely erases my earlier comments that nothing has really suggested the team is ready to trust him, and in that case he’d quickly be my favorite of the bunch because again we’re talking about rookie talent uncertainty versus likely washed-up veterans.
Let’s go game by game and talk about a bunch of other interesting stuff. As always, these are basically gut calls and I would never take my word over someone who does start/sit and forward-looking analysis more deeply every week.
I always want to note that because rather than spending something like an hour on each game like I might for Stealing Signals, instead I like to fly through the teams for this piece and spend maybe an hour on all of them combined. I merely offer these thoughts because you guys have asked, and they might give a unique look at a different part of a range of outcomes in some cases (like Evans!).
Lions at Ravens
It sure sounds like Jahmyr Gibbs is going to get a ton of work. Note that Craig Reynolds seems to be less healthy than Gibbs, which I think plays a big role in why head coach Dan Campbell was talking Gibbs’ role up. I think the range of outcomes includes a high floor (thanks to the workload) and a very high ceiling (thanks to the talent and offensive setup).
I have no idea what to expect from Jameson Williams, who went from 50% routes in his first game back to 19% in his second, despite hitting for a long TD in that one.
Gus Edwards established himself as the lead back last week, I think, but I still have more faith in Justice Hill than I probably should. He’s averaged 5.6 yards per carry on 18 rushes over three games since missing Week 3.
The Odell Beckham, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor trio behind Zay Flowers (and Mark Andrews) is a mess at this stage of the season. No idea where that goes next.
Raiders at Bears
For both teams, the QB situation is a major unknown. Brian Hoyer is going to start for the Raiders a few days after his 38th birthday, so that’s something. I unironically am more in on Tyson Bagent after seeing this video of him showing off his arm-wrestling prowess at the Senior Bowl. Moxie and competitiveness is the recipe for a fun backup QB. (Edit: This is apparently his dad Travis, not him.)
Michael Mayer has become so popular of a breakout pick that I want to emphasize it isn’t certainly going to be his week this week. The Davante Adams comments this week feel like we’re in for a 40% target share his way, and the Mayer adds should be looking at a longer timeline (you can certainly start him if in a bye week pinch, I just don’t want to be fielding 20 questions about why it’s Joever for Mayer on Monday morning because everyone got way too hyped on what to expect this week).
Roschon Johnson is out, and we’re looking at D’Onta Foreman and Darrynton Evans again, with Travis Homer returning and maybe shaking things up a little but probably just playing special teams and some passing downs. Assuming Foreman is rostered in your league, Evans is one of those “break glass in case of emergency” options for deeper leagues this week (he played 36% of the snaps last week, and had 10 touches, including touches on both of the first two drives).
Browns at Colts
Deshaun Watson will be back under center, which is good for the pass catchers if not necessarily because he’s a lock to be more efficient than P.J. Walker, but at least because the team is more likely to be heavier with the pass rate.
The RB situation will be interesting to keep monitoring with Kareem Hunt drawing the start but still playing behind Jerome Ford in overall snaps last week.
Similar for the Colts, where Jonathan Taylor closed on Zack Moss last week, but didn’t necessarily look explosive on his one big play of 40 yards. Hopefully we see that next gear this week from him.
Josh Downs remains a viable sleeper-type play, although the Browns have been a really tough defense for some teams, essentially shutting everything down.