Input Volatility, Week 7
Game-by-game thoughts
The Sean Tucker post earlier today was the intro, because he’s about as big of an Input Volatility guy as there is. I mean that tweet I shared from Underdog where offensive coordinator Liam Coen said all three backs will get an early series and then whoever has success will get more action is fantastic. Imagine trying to project a backfield where the OC is telling you it’s just The Hunger Games for snaps.
As far as how I’d play that backfield, I kind of think it’s a bit of a stay away. I know I wouldn’t play Rachaad White, especially because he’s been limited all week again and may not be 100%, but I guess I do still suspect he’ll lead the team in snaps. The thing about all of what I wrote earlier is that it doesn’t all have to manifest in Week 7 for it be a pretty positive Signal for the other guys, and an issue for White. Even if it’s like 40% White, 35% Bucky Irving, 25% Tucker, that’s a major problem for White going forward, and I’d be bullish on both Irving and Tucker.
For what it’s worth, if those were the snap shares, I’d probably want to play Irving most. But I mean, we don’t have any reason to believe that’s what it’ll be. If I shift just 5% from Bucky over to Tucker, and give them both 30%, I’d probably rather play Tucker at that point.
Now, if you’re in a position where you don’t have great options, as we all find ourselves in from time to time, the fact about the hot hand commentary is we do have confirmation all these guys will at least get some work. They anticipate using all three, and I’d expect each will get at least 3-4 touches. That’s not a lot, obviously, but it’s something, and creates a little bit of floor. And then there’s upside as well, both in terms of workload and efficiency (for Irving and Tucker). So if you’re wondering if you can play those guys in a pinch, I’d understand running them out there. I’d prefer not to in shallower leagues, but I think you could do worse — like with a lower-ceiling play whose only redeeming quality is a slightly higher median, but where the floor and median actually aren’t even that much of an improvement, and you’re just avoiding uncertainty.
Remember, uncertainty can be opportunity. That’s sort of what this whole post is about each week. Sometimes, I feel a little crazy, but while I mentioned Tucker in this post last week, he’s absolutely an example of where I didn’t go far enough emphasizing the uncertainty. That was an input volatility guy if we’ve ever seen one.
Let’s try to find some this week, and get to the games. As always, I offer these considerations solely because you guys have asked, and because I might have a thought about a different part of a range of outcomes in some cases, relative to what you’re seeing elsewhere. I don’t offer these thoughts because I think they will be explicitly great predictions, and it’s basically just me going game-by-game and throwing out what hits me.
Patriots at Jaguars (early Sunday game, 9:30 ET!)
As I wrote this week, Drake Maye’s first start was super eventful, and also pushed along by significant negative game script while New England still went pretty run heavy relative to expectation (-10.0% PROE). He might be an awesome QB spot start, and guys like DeMario Douglas might be super interesting, or the Patriots might seem a lot more boring this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson is expected back and there’s not much volatility, but he should get a lot of work.
Travis Etienne is questionable, but I guess I expect him to sit, and the split between Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson is something to keep an eye on. Bigsby probably gets the bulk of the early-down work, and two different Texans’ RBs gashed this defense for long runs last week. You could do worse than telling yourself there’s upside with Bigsby this week, especially in half-PPR and Standard formats.
Seahawks at Falcons
Seattle’s pretty straightforward, but I’m seeing a lot of “Kenneth Walker is rest of season RB1” takes out there, and that’s cool.
Atlanta’s pretty straightforward, too, but I guess there’s a little uncertainty with Darnell Mooney. I suspect he’s still the No. 2 for volume but his poor efficiency may have him sliding back into a tie with Kyle Pitts on some level. Seattle’s down two cornerbacks.
Tyler Allgeier is always a big volatility guy, and he obviously had 100 and a TD last week. The thing that’s tough is you need both sides of that — the rush yards and the TD — since he doesn’t run routes on even 20% of dropbacks most of the time and the receiving stuff isn’t really there.