Input Volatility, Week 8
Some things I'm considering while setting Week 8 lineups
The biggest overarching input volatility theme right now remains rushing quarterbacks, that Mobile QB Tax I wrote about this week, and the range of play volume that is there for players in offenses with the mobile quarterbacks — especially the ones that are fairly run-heavy — compared to the range of play volume available to skill players in offenses that have less-mobile quarterbacks.
We saw this dichotomy front and center on Thursday night, where despite the Ravens playing a much better offensive game — running 74 plays for 453 yards to Tampa Bay’s 62 plays for 349 yards — Lamar Jackson had 12 plays that were either rush attempts or sacks, and Tom Brady had just four, so the skill position opportunity was relatively equal (62 plays where the ball left the quarterback’s hands for the Ravens versus 58 for the Bucs).
This game was an example of a pretty up-tempo and more balanced run/pass (they went pass heavy in the first half, run heavy in the second) mobile-quarterback offense. We know there are several mobile-quarterback offenses that are slower paced and lean toward the run, so Baltimore is something of the best-case scenario, and when they are successful at sustaining drives and picking up this type of yardage, there can obviously be success.
The Bucs are also typically a fruitful fantasy offense from a tempo and play volume perspective, so you have to control for those elements. The point is it took the Ravens playing well and the Buccaneers mostly playing poorly to put these two teams on relatively level ground for skill position opportunity, and there is more room for Tampa to have even more skill position production most weeks.
This is the kind of thing I’d be considering while breaking ties in situations like who I might start among depth tight ends. I played Cade Otton in a couple deeper-lineup situations, and while the production wasn’t there, Brady threw 22 of his 44 passes in the fourth quarter, and that extra late volume did allow Otton to grab a couple passes on the game’s final, fruitless drive, and also catch a short touchdown that was called back for holding on the drive before. He nearly went from a catchless game through three-and-a-half quarters to a 3-25-1 receiving line that would have played.
This isn’t something new, and it’s not even necessarily tied to mobile quarterbacks, because I’ve written similar about how Zach Ertz has picked up late receiving production in an offense helmed by another mobile QB. Arizona is kind of an exception among this mobile quarterback point I’m making, in that they don’t tend to deliberately weaponize Kyler Murray in their rushing attack, and his production on the ground is more of the scramble variety than designed. That is a shotgun-heavy, spread attack that will throw a ton while trailing, and the volume can get there. Similar can be said about Josh Allen and the Bills.