Kyren, cutdowns, claims: Rankings updates
Team-by-team discussion of current 53-man rosters
Want to start by kind of extending yesterday’s post, because I was a bit under the gun and fired it off with a tone I quickly regretted. I was in a rush to get out to attend to the personal matter I referenced, and probably shouldn’t have sent it, but the main reason I wrote it up was to note the YouTube draftathon was going to be moved to Friday, and to let you guys know the rankings weren’t going to be updated throughout the day as cutdown day happened.
As a writer, my style tends to be very stream of consciousness, as you guys have observed. Sometimes, I pull on a thread for a while and then come up for air and don’t know how I got where I was, because it wasn’t the direction I’d set out. In those cases, I usually need a minute to figure out what I was trying to say, and then I delete and rewrite as needed, because there’s not even an easy way to finish the piece when I’ve gone down the wrong path like that.
I didn’t like the way I wrapped up the piece with a self-important tone, both because the question I was asked was thoughtful (I allowed myself to use it as a launching pad to a different point because it was clearly an inoffensive question), and — more importantly — because there was a more helpful point buried there, that I didn’t realize until later. The way I wish I would have parsed that discussion was to say that the beat reports on rookies and players at the fringes of rosters are really useful, but forcing them to speculate on something like in-season workloads for superstars — and then everyone reacting to those soundbites like facts — is the extent of where I think there’s error in the fantasy marketplace, and I would rather trust my own research.
In the fantasy space, everything about Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and the background in Arthur Smith’s offense and all of those things have been baked in all offseason; what I wrote in the RB Tiers and Targets was my focus on an early RB pick is not whether he is a great floor pick — for that I’d take a WR — but “whether he breaks fantasy 5% of the time, or 10%.” It’s often a question about what isn’t there in the available information, but might still occur; it’s imagining we’re looking from the end of the season back and asking, “Where were there surprises?” Because we know the NFL is chaos.
Among the Bijan and Breece Hall discussion, I’ve gotten a lot of responses to “just take both,” and even one that said “I’ll be happy at the end of the year when I look back and had taken both.” And that’s how I’m playing it, too, but don’t get it twisted — the scenarios where you look back and the answer was “either one worked” because they scored so closely to one another are extremely thin. In all likelihood, we are going to look back at this and one of these guys will have been clearly right over the other. It’s fine to middle it, and that’s maybe even right — again, I’ve taken a lot of Breece, because I believe in him as a play. But I will always write about edges I think exist, even if the reputational risk is very high. (What I mean by that is I’ve now positioned myself to get negative feedback if the 40 or 45 side of a slightly weighted coinflip goes against me, because the impact can be large. But I still strongly believe the bet is weighted 55/45 or 60/40 toward Bijan, and I’ve obviously made that case a number of ways.)
But the part of this where both are great and it’s a toss-up who you wanted is maybe the least likely outcome. That’s another one of those things where it’s clear to me, I guess as the “expert” as I called myself yesterday, that people aren’t actually thinking through how these things have played out in the decades of fantasy seasons we’ve had historically. Or maybe still don’t even understand what it means to be drafting an RB this high.
This is a crazy reference because I was young and don’t even remember the details, and I’m not sure how to find accurate ADP for these seasons, but at some point in my youth I was convinced Clinton Portis and Deuce McAllister were both great mid-first-round picks, and I think I remember these two as the example here because I think one year the answer was clearly one, and the next the answer was clearly the other (looks like Portis got hurt in 2006, and McAllister had a big year, but got hurt in 2005 and also 2007, years in which Portis was productive, so the two-year example was probably somewhere in there; probably I remember it because I had the wrong guy each season).
The point is we’re not drafting these guys for safety. People think both have high floors for some reason, and they don’t. RBs never do. Even when first-round RBs have just decent production, that’s a roster-killer. Look at Bijan last year; he crushed you because of what you bypassed. You’re taking these guys over CeeDee Lamb in a lot of cases; they better put up elite numbers. Both can do it. For Breece, I feel strongly the efficiency side — to talk on the term’s Siegele likes to use, the FPOE — will be there, but that can only get you so far. You need that “double-double” EP he mentions on Stealing Bananas, which means a weekly average of 10 expected rushing fantasy points and also 10 expected receiving fantasy points. Breece might also get there, but I think there are more outcomes where his EP profile comes up a bit short of what we’re looking for.
Bijan meanwhile, beat commentary or not, has what is to me a much clearer path to that double-double EP profile as a Year 2 former top-10 pick. People are still talking about Arthur Smith’s offense without understanding how different this team will look. I was going to write a post this year that basically focused on how quick stuff changes in the NFL but that’s the whole ballgame, right? Nothing from the 2023 Falcons matters to this new regime. We’re all just guessing about 2024. That uncertainty is a positive in the case of a RB with Bijan’s profile, at least in my estimation. Uncertainty can be opportunity. And then I also believe in his ability to put up the necessary FPOE-type efficiency to add to the huge workload.
That’s maybe the best way to simplify. And the note about beat reporters makes more sense when we delineate this way. When it comes to elite talents and situations where we have strong priors and past information we’re trusting, beat speculation, or predictions on usage, isn’t going to sway me too much, because I understand the bet. In this case, it’s that I understand the bet isn’t without risk.
We got another great example of this phenomenon with the Kyren Williams stuff later yesterday. This wasn’t beat speculation, but rather a direct quote. Still, the response from the fantasy community seems to misunderstand key context, in part because there’s been this long-running fear this offseason that Kyren might just straight up be Blake Corum’s backup at some point, a note difficult to understand and also — importantly — not at all relevant to Kyren’s upside scenarios. That conversation has never made sense to me because it’s just parsing different ways Kyren was the wrong pick, and how bad that might be.
Does that matter to outcomes? Sure. You can still win with a sort of bad early pick and are probably dust with a super bad early pick. But should that matter to our decision to select the player? I’d argue probably not, especially when talking about early-round RBs. It’s a floor-based discussion when the pick is an inherently high-risk selection made for upside. In some cases, you might “draft like you’re right” with that pick, and make it be the big bet on your roster that the Anchor RB you took will be a star; in others, like in home leagues where there’s a ton of value, you might still build in contingencies, prepared for it to be a total zero (but aware that you are going to take on risk there because you can).
Understanding the point of the bet is crucial, though; if Kyren as a third-round pick is just bad but not catastrophic, it doesn’t matter, because “just bad” is replaceable by your late-round RBs. In fact, in some cases, like shallow leagues with a high replacement level, catastrophic may be better, because you won’t spend half the season starting Kyren and hoping he’ll show why you took him so high; if Corum plays 75% of the snaps in Week 1, you can just move on and play your other RBs. People just do not think about how these things actually play out. “Congrats, your early-round RB has a better shot at being a ‘silent killer’ rather than a total zero you can move on from.”
But to be clear, I don’t think Corum playing 75% of the snaps is anywhere near the range of outcomes; it would shock me as much today as before yesterday’s quote. Sean McVay was asked to explain why he cut a couple players, including the presumed punt returner, someone who there was obviously a backstory with, between him and the reporters. They’ve been asking him questions all camp, and reporting on stuff like who would be the punt returner. Their guesses in their content including him on the 53-man roster, perhaps because McVay has made comments to that effect. As part of McVay’s answer, he clearly stated that Kyren would be their punt returner, and then shared some of the reason why, including that backup RBs can cover for Kyren.
My strong opinion here is this is almost nothing. I say that in the sense that if Kyren is actually the long-term punt returner, I’d be pretty shocked. Teams have to manipulate the 53-man roster at cutdowns, and don’t want everyone to know what they are thinking. This feels like total deception; McVay would probably like to get that player through to his practice squad, or else they are in the market for a replacement punt returner, and they don’t want anyone knowing that. I say this largely because they only kept three running backs — the other important context around that quote. If you’re wondering how it makes sense for them to keep fewer RBs than most teams around the league and then also use their starting RB — who has missed camp time whith injury — as their punt returner, it’s because it doesn’t make sense. Maybe they do it Week 1, for some reason. Maybe it’s a new thing where they want to let him do both. But I’ll be pretty shocked if this was truly somehow a commentary on Kyren’s role as the lead back.
That said, it will impact pricing, and I did move Corum up into the next tier as a result (only from RB36 to RB35). I also moved Kyren down a tier and removed the “Target” on him, mostly because I had durability concerns and any potential special teams snaps could be problematic.
Kyren was previously the end of a tier, and I slid him into the next one, but he stays at RB7. That tier and Target move is more about me not really wanting to push everyone to be all in on him if his price starts to fall. I never had that much conviction in the play to begin with, and did have him as a value-based Target relative to price, but don’t see the need to keep drafting him in that range if he slips. He’s someone I wanted access to at that price range, but not necessarily to be betting my whole season on, because early RBs are tough bets.
The truth is there’s always some added risk with something like yesterday’s quote. But my point would be the fantasy community is going to take that and run with it to a degree far outpacing what’s reasonable, when you consider the context of the whole thing.
Let’s go around the league and highlight some other big pieces of news from cutdown day. I’m going to use this ESPN article that tracked all cuts yesterday and OurLads’ depth charts, adding comment as I go.
More moves are expected, but this is where it stands now.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle has been moved down substantially, and Dalvin Cook has been added. As far as the Cowboys adding someone, I do think this is one of the better outcomes for Dowdle in that Cook might be washed, but he does have the profile to command work once he’s up to speed, and Dowdle’s still a 26-year-old career special teamer who now has to be better to hold the work than he previously had to. Previously, he just needed to not be as bad as Ezekiel Elliott, but now there are two guys with pedigree sharing the backfield. Still, he could wind up in the lead role if the other two falter.
CeeDee Lamb was placed on an exempt list but that isn’t expected to impact his availability.
Rookie Ryan Flournoy made the team and is an in-season name to keep an eye on.
New York Giants
They only kept three RBs, leaving Tyrone Tracy in a competition with only Eric Gray for the immediate work behind Devin Singletary. Either Singletary is going to get a ton of touches and be a value at his cost, or Tracy is going to get enough work to look great at his very late cost.
Isaiah Hodgins and Allen Robinson were cut, leaving a pretty clear quartet of Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, and then either of Jalin Hyatt or Darius Slayton to round out three-WR sets. The other two WRs who made the team are mostly special teams guys. I moved Hyatt up quite a bit as things look good for the Year 2 bet.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles only kept five WRs on their initial roster, placing rookie Ainias Smith on IR. Jahan Dotson looks likely to play in three-WR sets right away, though rookie Johnny Wilson could also be used early. Dotson is off my board given he needs to learn a new offense and faces far more target competition than an atmosphere where he failed to earn looks in Washington.
Philly also only kept three RBs, with Will Shipley and Kenneth Gainwell as the two backups.
Washington Commanders
Veterans Jamison Crowder, Byron Pringle, and Olamide Zaccheaus all made the team, complicating things for rookie Luke McCaffrey, who I’d initially hoped would get first-team run after the Dotson trade. I’d moved LMC up but dropped him back down a bit, as I’m not sure the depth names here are really worth chasing. Expect Dyami Brown to also rotate, with Terry McLaurin as the only clear fantasy target at WR in the early going, but some potential for an intriguing name to become usable in the early going. I didn’t move McLaurin up, but I could see being higher than I am on him. I have him WR36 because I’ve pushed up some of the intriguing youngsters, but he’s the type of pick I could see making while you wait for the youngsters at a better price, in certain rooms.
Jeremy McNichols made the team as RB3 in a two-man backfield, with Chris Rodriguez cut. Rodriguez wasn’t in the ranks.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Travis Homer made the roster as RB4 and a special teams guy, while Velus Jones also did as a special teams guy, after a conversion to RB in preseason. That’s five RBs on the roster, and is part of why people have speculated someone like Khalil Herbert might get moved on from. For now, it seems like the Bears just value depth at a position that requires it.
Detroit Lions
The Lions only kept four WRs, with rookie UDFA Isaiah Williams as the only immediate backup if counting Kalif Raymond as among their rotation (they rested him with starters most of the preseason, and seem to see him that way). But Detroit also acquired Tim Patrick onto their practice squad, after he was released by the Broncos, and them keeping only four WRs likely signals Patrick being elevated. He’s likely the best fit for three-WR sets, replacing Josh Reynolds’ role (who in some ways made Patrick disposable in Denver).
Both Craig Reynolds and rookie Sione Vaki made the roster as competition for the No. 3 RB role.
Green Bay Packers
AJ Dillon hitting IR was a bit of a surprise, and should have an immediate impact on MarShawn Lloyd. I’ve moved him up within my target tier for RBs, and he becomes more of a priority. Emanuel Wilson might also be a name worth tracking as the RB3 on a team that only kept three.
Tucker Kraft made the Week 1 roster, and the WR room is deep, as was known.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings waived Robert Tonyan, who was apparently less healthy than I’d thought when I recently mentioned him. They go into the season with Josh Oliver as their main receiving TE, and he might have a role early. Johnny Mundt is more of a No. 2 TE with blocking responsibilities; he came over from the Rams last year with Kevin O’Connell. I don’t know much about Nick Muse, the No. 3 TE. It’s possible the TEs just don’t play much of a role at all early in the year, but I’d guess the most likely to make a fantasy impact would be Oliver. T.J. Hockenson was placed on PUP and probably won’t be playable for fantasy until close to midseason, at the earliest.
I have sprinkled this take in a few places, but Nick Mullens being the clear backup now if Sam Darnold falters is a plus for Justin Jefferson, in my estimation. I moved him ahead of Ja’Marr Chase as a result; Mullens targeted him 10+ times in all four of their starts together last year.
The Vikings kept just two true running backs, with fullback C.J. Ham also on the 53-man. They’ll use Ham some, and WR Brandon Powell could maybe factor into backfield snaps, so it’s possible this remains the set-up. If so, Ty Chandler is in an obviously strong spot relative to other No. 2s around the league, and Aaron Jones is also being trusted in a big way, too. Myles Gaskin has been signed to the practice squad as a potential No. 3, while Kene Nwangwu was waived and claimed by the Saints.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons kept four RBs, including both Avery Williams and Jase McClellan, which could be a minor note toward Bijan not getting a monster workload. As I wrote about in the intro, that’s not really the point of the early-round RB decision.
With Rondale Moore out, Ray-Ray McCloud or KhaDarel Hodge will likely play in three-WR sets. Conversely, Kyle Pitts might just line up at WR more. The Falcons kept only five WRs, with rookie sixth-round pick Casey Washington being the fifth. The thesis that the pass volume could concentrate on the big names remains strong. Darnell Mooney also remains a viable best ball pick.
Carolina Panthers
Jonathon Brooks will start on PUP, and the RBs early in the season will be Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders, and Raheem Blackshear.
The Panthers only kept five WRs, releasing Terrace Marshall in favor of keeping David Moore.
New Orleans Saints
Kendre Miller hit IR, which I somehow had kind of overlooked as a possibility. I’ve moved him down quite a bit and removed the Target tag. Jamaal Williams is unfortunately very draftable (he reaches RB62 for me). The Saints did add Nwangwu, but likely for special teams.
There was never a WR add here, and Rashid Shaheed remains the clear No. 2 WR. I removed his Fade tag and moved him up a bit. I still don’t think he makes much sense in managed as someone whose role could theoretically expand but we’d also need to see a lot more from him for that to be playable; it’s not just different usage, but different production that would be necessary. But it didn’t make sense to be signaling him out among a group of roster-clogger veterans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs put Chase Edmonds on IR and kept only three RBs. Sean Tucker reportedly had a solid camp, but Bucky Irving appears locked into the RB2 role, and the team seems very high on him. I’ve mentioned multiple times he’s my highest-rostered player, and I thought it was because he was so cheap on Underdog, but when he did finally start to rise, I just found new players I could justify taking him over. If something happens to Irving, I might unexpectedly need a bye week.
The Bucs kept just five WRs and Jalen McMillan is there. They kept four TEs, including rookie seventh-rounder Devin Culp, another UW guy. Culp will probably never really play but he’s good.