Mega subscriber Q&A
Hitting on questions left on all the recent posts
The title says it all. I’ve promised a Q&A for a while, but I needed to keep my head down and get the content out. A lot of what I was being asked was on the schedule to be covered. Naturally, I needed to prioritize the masses, and the schedule, and — as always — getting the work done that I found to be important and actionable. The whole basis of this subscription is me doing what I think matters.
We’re now at the point where what matters is me getting some feedback and answering some questions I might have let slip through the cracks. If I see things, I’m going to update ranks as I do this (I’ll note changes). Some of these questions I come across are going to be outdated, and I apologize for that (I won’t bring those into this post, but will probably shoot you a note).
One big thing is I try to avoid questions that are specific to individual leagues. I’ll hit on some today, but only when they give me a launching point to discuss something I already wanted to discuss, basically. I know many of you think your league settings are very common and my thoughts on them would help a ton of other people. I’ve hit on strategy a ton of ways, and some of the stuff I hit on today will be applicable across leagues.
Before we begin, a couple quick thoughts. First, I loved the response to the Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy piece, because several of you said it was among my best work this year for the broader points it represented, and others took it to mean I hate Rashee Rice, or something along those lines. Those ones where I kind of get to the point but also lose some people in translation are often my favorites.
Just to clarify, I do still have a lot of optimism for Rice when he returns. The way I’d articulate my thoughts on him is he does still have a range of outcomes for his production, like everyone. And that’s important when we actually can be 100% certain about the impact of one thing, which is the suspension, and the six missed games. That’s a real negative impact to any roster Rice is on, and then how good he is to offset that could include a bit worse production than expected, or injury, or a variety of things. What I’ve picked up is people not seeing his production after he returns as a range of outcomes thing. (I’ve also obviously seen some pro-Worthy stuff, too, but I don’t see it as very either/or, and it’s been one in the industry where the positions feel very antagonistic this year.)
Anyway, as I work through the comments, I’ll probably have more notes like this about recent posts, as I often think through them more after firing them off.
So let’s get into it. I’m going to organize based on the post the question came in on, working backward. I’m going to skip over plenty of questions, so apologies if you’re one of those people. It means either I already answered it somewhere, I don’t think there’s a great answer/I don’t have value to add, or it’s too involved of a question for me to sink my teeth into as I work through all these.
Draft Kit, Vol. 3
I've been trying to find how you would handle choosing players in the same tier, but the lower-ranked player is a "target" and the higher-ranked one is "normal."
I want to say that you have the "normal" guy ranked higher is higher for a reason.
I feel like I've read this somewhere, but I cannot find it. I'm hoping someone helpful can point me to it.
Thanks for all the amazing content!
I wrote about this in the QB Targets and Fades article, as the first one where I worked through the tiers.
The goal of the rankings is to have the Targets ahead of ADP and Fades behind, but ADP varies wildly — especially on the home league sites — so denoting players as Targets or Fades allows us to more directly talk about players that are worth a bit of a reach in some cases, and those who I’m saying you’d need a significant discount to consider.
I routinely get the question about whether to draft a Target in front of a non-Target he’s ranked behind, and the answer is I’m fine with it within a tier, but typically the rankings should already account for the Target being elevated, and if he’s behind someone, that player is also likely a good pick in that range rather than reaching on the Target. But perhaps most frequently, it just means waiting and trying to push that position to the next round, so you’re in a better cost situation to be attacking the Targets.
I would perhaps add that if you’re ever in doubt, and it’s within a tier, just take the Target. Draft the Targets. Have fun at fantasy football.
Legend! A question for the most popular alternate scoring system leagues; would you be open to:
1. A top 50 overall for superflex leagues
2. How your approach changes for TEP or 6 point TD passing leagues?
I talked through the Superflex stuff here, including why top 50 rankings aren’t helpful and how to think about how that stuff fits instead.
You can get TE Prem thoughts from my FFPC content, which is best at Stealing Bananas but I wrote some up here.
6 point pass TD closes the gap between rushing QBs and the guys my projections see as high pass TD options, so Joe Burrow or Bo Nix. But Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Josh Allen also have strong pass TD projections; that’s part of what makes them so interesting in any format. It’s a bit easier to find production from pocket passers late, but you also still need to value three of the top four guys above all else (Jalen Hurts does see a dip).
High stakes draft results, 8/27 and 8/28
I'm curious how you view other teams in high stakes drafting, presumably competing against sharps, picking some of your fade options notably ahead of where you have them.
EG Pacheco at RB26/25, Javonte at RB30, Evans at WR 14/18, Terry at WR16/21, Kelce TE7/8
Those ranking differences generally equate to 2-4 rounds earlier than you would choose to draft these guys, what's the presumption on why they're making these bets?
This is a pretty tough question for me to address, but I do think it’s interesting. I definitely do try to understand the bull cases for guys I’m fading, or not really into, but I’ve also written about these guys extensively in the Offseason Stealing Signals series and other places, so this question seems to be seeking a more involved answer.
And to that end, I’m not sure what value I can add in trying to understand the confidence people might have in processes that are meaningfully different than mine. That would mostly be a question for those people, and their understanding of fantasy football.
But as far as why those prices don’t work for me, players in that group can often be summed up as ones I believe the market has too much faith in a projection, or in past production equating to future production. Alternately, I might say that these players represent guys whose upside cases are too baked into those prices, and I don’t believe the “big hit” outcomes are as likely as other picks in their draft ranges.
High-Value Touches help contextualize RB upside
Before I jump into the questions on this post, I want to cover one team I wish I would have hit on in the notes. The Jets rank 25th in my projections despite me giving them a 75-reception projection that’s 16th in the league. I think that’s a bit rich given my expectations for pass rate and Justin Fields’ tendencies, and I erred on the upside there because of Breece Hall’s history and a lack of secondary receiving weapons. But even with a projection that puts them middle of the pack in RB receptions (despite a pass attempt projection in the bottom five of the league), the green zone touch projection is weak enough to push the overall Team HVT projection down into the bottom quartile. A bottom quartile Team HVT projection with a committee is tough, and it’s why I’m not really on Hall or Braelon Allen.
NO, TEN, and CHI are the names that stand out to me, all of them in your top 13, with some ambiguity in either their offense or QB play, and potential fragility in the RB1 (Kamara, Pollard, Swift).
Has me wondering if guys like Kendre Miller or Spears could have valuable roles, or even someone like Luther Burden operating at or behind the line, similar to what we saw from Mims last year in Denver.
I didn’t write up New Orleans, but their projection was definitely influenced by who Alvin Kamara is, somewhat like CMC in San Francisco. If Kamara’s out, the Team HVT projections on the weekly level crater, so the handcuff potential is lower than expected from this perspective. Kendre Miller could still be interesting, but I wanted to emphasize that they are so high because of Kamara’s target share mostly.
Chicago is similar with D’Andre Swift, but it’s less drastic as what Kamara drives through his own profile. I think they are an interesting one for sure.
For the Titans, my aggression on the RB target share was actually toward Tyjae Spears, who is obviously now on IR. He’s been a very productive receiver and they don’t have a clear No. 2 target option, as I wrote about in Offseason Stealing Signals. I still think Spears could have his moments this year.
Warren seems to have dropped a bit in your rankings, was that a reflection of your HVT research I.e. felt you baked too much in already? Also not relevant to this piece but Golden has rocketed up as well? If you’re doing another rankings piece before majority of drafts next week, feel free to ignore this comment as I’m sure you will touch on both of them there!
Matthew Golden shot up as a result of the Jayden Reed Jones fracture news. I was already getting more interested in Golden, but that’s a big one.
Jaylen Warren is one that as I sat with it more, I just wasn’t as excited as I was about the other RBs right in his range. I want exposure to those other guys more. I do love Warren, but this is an Arthur Smith concern, with Kenny Gainwell potentially impacting some of the pass-down stuff, and slow pace and rotations not being ideal.
One thing I've struggled a bit to frame for myself is how much we need to key on HVTs in less than full PPR leagues.
…
It's obvious that in lower PPR you need to focus more on green/red zone touches and a bit less on receptions, but receptions still are more valuable than a generic rush attempt. And total rushing volume rises in importance in a way that belies some of the points raised in this article.
I’ve written in the past extensively about how HVTs do get less important as we move away from PPR. If you’re in a non-PPR league, you’re talking about TDs being massive, and so in some ways you might just focus on that side of things. In half-PPR, some of the HVT guys who don’t get full workloads are not nearly as viable, but those types of backs are not as common anymore (think Nyheim Hines, Theo Riddick, James White, and other pass-down backs), and it’s still helpful to a RB ceiling to have the HVTs as long as the overall workload is strong. But no, it’s not the most important thing. RB efficiency remains very key, and especially in leagues that move further away from PPR.
Reacting to the Rashee Rice suspension news
To your point re redundancy and the relevance of Royals to Rice, one (albeit small) datapoint that may be worth fleshing out a bit more is the potential redundancy of Tyquan Thornton to Worthy. Don't get me wrong, Thornton is not in the same world as Worthy as a complete player. But to give credit to Andy Reid, Mahomes, and the brilliance of the Chiefs' offensive design (and their willingness to build depth), I think Thornton factors into the equation as a vertical, field-stretching backup to Worthy. They're both track stars who can create space for whoever is underneath.
All this is to say, I don't think Thornton changes much of the bottom-line analysis. But a holistic account of this Chiefs passing game probably does account for him to a similar extent that Royals is worthy (ha) of analysis. Cheers.
This is a great point. I did gloss over that. My argument would be that Tyquan Thornton could be somewhat problematic for Xavier Worthy, but also any kind of meaningful Thornton hit probably comes as a vertical threat that gets Worthy more routes in the underneath, and more horizontal breaking stuff, etc. We want more of that, like how Jameson Williams is used. It's a bit like how last year I felt Gabe Davis could help create more space for Brian Thomas to do more than just be the lid lifter (that's not how it played out necessarily, but similar vibe).
I actually think the Thornton stuff strongly signals they want to be a vertical team, and that Worthy is going to get those opportunities. I'm not super concerned about redundancy on those routes, because you get a few opportunities to make huge plays a game, and that's sort of it. We actually don't want Worthy to be only running those routes; that's where it gets bad. And I don't believe there are scenarios where Thornton is moving Worthy off the field frequently (in the preseason, when he made a first-team play downfield, Worthy was still on the field).
Apologies for off-topic, but just wanted to poke you on a couple off-season stories I haven't seen (or missed?) any reaction to:
Olamide Zach as the starting slot WR for the Bears + some camp hype
Keenan to the Chargers, both on standalone value and any impact on Ladd
In the Field Tippers piece in January, I talked about the Bears being a horrible offense last year, but also had these concerning notes on Keenan Allen:
And then Keenan Allen has the age factor as a mitigating note, but his TPRR was down at 21.4% as well, coming off a 27.5% year in 2023. His 2024 was his lowest TPRR since his rookie year way back in 2013, and multiple percentage points below any of his prior seven or eight seasons (dating to before the lost 2016 season with the Week 1 ACL tear where he only ran 16 routes). His 1.36 YPRR was well below his previous career low, and a full yard lower than 2023.
I am maybe underreacting here, but I don’t think Keenan has a profound impact on what Ladd McConkey is or does this year. He’s not significantly different as target competition than what the TEs would have been (the TEs are probably better at earning targets in the aggregate than people realize). The rest of the WRs in the offense are lid lifters who open stuff up for Ladd, and I still think Ladd’s going to be fine.
As for the Luther Burden stuff with Olamide Zaccheaus, I just don’t think that is going to stick. Zaccheaus is a half decent player but the arc of seasons always bends toward rookies like Burden that have the draft capital and whose coaches talked them up all offseason.
Re Rice having a good camp: one of the KC Star beat reporters wrote that is was clear Mahomes trusted Rice most of the wrs.
I think Rice's absence means Kelce sees more work. Last year, Weeks 1-3 w/Rice healthy, Kelce averaged 4 tgt/g. Week 4, Rice got hurt. From Week 5-17, Kelce averaged over 9 tgt/g. Small samples, but still I think they are telling. Yeah, Kelce's value will drop for fantasy playoff time but that's a lot of opportunity for the first 6 games.
I had been hoping to pair Rice and Addison, with Rice playing the games Addison was out and then Addison taking over for Rice's suspension, with both available for the playoffs. It hadn't worked out yet, lucky for me.
I think this is right about how the team will lean on Travis Kelce more early in the season, and then he will fade.
And I do think Rashee Rice is going to be very good when he gets back. The question is basically whether he’s a 15 point-per-game guy or a 20 point-per-game guy in PPR, and I think some are very confident he’ll be 20 basically because of a three-game sample last year that in their head they extrapolated to a 16-game, 20-point-per-game breakout. And I’m just saying there’s a range of outcomes.
Ben, you are far from the only one who thinks Xavier Worthy *could* take it up a notch, or even two. You might be overreacting to some overreactions. Rice will probably be the clear alpha when he returns, but I would agree we should be open to various outcomes.
*fart noises*
My favorite picks in each round on ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Sleeper
There are some odd ADP rankings for RTSports leagues as well, I drafted 10 team PPR and got London at the 2/3 turn
The comments on this post were more comments than questions, but this one felt like a note worth passing along.
How I'm approaching Superflex leagues in 2025
Great article Ben, super helpful.
One question about this note: "But in an average Superflex league, I’m not taking Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes over mostly any of the non-QBs I have before the first Big Tier Breaks at those respective positions"
How would you adjust in a superflex league with 6pt pass TDs and only 0.5ppr for skill positions where this juices the pocket passers a bit more, particularly relative to non QBs when compared to full PPR leagues?
Does this put burrow/mahomes straight after the top 4 QBs and before chase/Gibbs in your mind? Or perhaps puts them after Gibbs/Bijan/chase/lamb/bowers?
Probably the latter. I’d be willing to take Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes higher in this format, but I think I’d prefer Jahmyr Gibbs and company first.
Ben what are your thoughts on SF auction leagues? Worth spending on one of the big 4 (roughly 20-25% of budget in my league for 1 of them), or better to go low cost QBs and maximize funds for the other positions?
I always treat Superflex auctions as great Zero RB formats. This year, I might try to get one or both of TreVeyon Henderson or RJ Harvey, but the element in auctions where you can build a Zero RB room for very low dollars that includes a bunch of names in the Round 9-12 range (Quarter 3 range from the four quarters framework, although it’s a little different in Superflex and probably more like Round 11-13 for those same RBs) is always super appealing.
You can’t quite do that in the same way in a snake, where you give up some of the RB depth you can build in auction and also give up some of the depth at other positions because you have to start dipping into the RBs at a certain point. The stress in that Round 9-13 range is real at multiple positions, but in auction, you can better navigate the necessary depth.
The reason this is so useful in Superflex is QBs suddenly becoming another prime asset helps emphasize that huge numbers spent on RBs is probably too risky. I do like to try to get a top-four QB where possible, but not at the expense of depth. I want to win every starting lineup position other than RB and then have ample upside shots at RB (with some stability as well with a J.K. Dobbins or whoever).
Preseason Stealing Signals, Week 3
RE: Dolphins
I think worth noting that this game had 3 series of the Dolphins ones struggling against the bottom of roster Jags guys. Jags sat 36 guys.
Good note here. Not something I’m happy to read. Also there are many, many examples of teams struggling through all of Week 1 or Week 2 and then starting to get it figured out. Three preseason series definitely not that big of a deal. Teams sometimes keep things under wraps and get very vanilla with it. (And the ones here did not include Tyreek Hill.)
I have to cut one of Sampson, Ollie, Blue, or Skattebo in a 14 team half ppr for a kicker (sigh). Leaning cutting Blue even though he was my highest drafted of the 4, after reading your analysis and thinking about who is most likely to be a big week 2 faab target. Is that crazy, or the right read of the situations?
Running backs in these ranges are constantly moving around in value. On FFPC over the past three days, Cam Skattebo is RB38 at 9.10, Jaydon Blue is RB40 at 10.05, Dylan Sampson is RB42 at 10.09 and Ollie Gordon is RB43 at 10.10. They all go within a round of each other.
It feels a little crazy with the De’Von Achane injury, but I would probably cut Gordon actually, which is reflected in my rankings. Blue would be right there, though, and is another one you could cut. I just think we’ll get some Week 1 info on Blue, and we might not really on Gordon. He might play some, but maybe not as much as his rising cost suggests.
Stealing Signals Draft Kit, Volume 2
How are you considering (or are you) the week 14 bye week players for FFPC Main and Gorilla drafts? Do you adjust those players? Do you try to cap your exposure to not more than X number of those players in the first 4 picks, 6 picks, 10 picks?
Also, Your drafts today in the marathon it feels like you and Shawn were never considering Rice even at a falling adp. Saw he went 41 in one of them. Where do you consider drafting him?
As far as where I’d take Rashee Rice, there’s a thing I’ve been considering where I was absolutely hammering him in the eighth round last year on Underdog when a suspension seemed likely, then when he rose to around Round 5 or Round 6 for a bit, I didn’t like it as much and the opportunity cost got trickier.
Some of that was because I already had cheaper exposure, but some was me naturally questioning how confident we could be in the production to accept a 100% certainty of six lost games. The biggest thing about fantasy football is people being too confident in August they’ll have everything right. Your roster is going to have so many holes you don’t know about now. Don’t make that more complicated with a fourth-round pick that is definitely a hole, is my position. It’s not a knock on Rice as much as a belief people are overconfident in how easy it is to navigate that, and missing how much redundancy you need in fantasy football.
I think I’d consider drafting Rice back in that eighth round range where the alternatives are guys that are much more speculative as plays. I don’t know how you can just give up access to the other plays in the Round 4-5 range for a suspended guy because you’re hyper-confident he’ll be a top-10 WR when he returns, and you’ll be fine until then.
Story time for newer readers: A few years back, I traded for Justin Jefferson when he had his hamstring injury in my longest-running home league, and I thought I crushed the value there in that I also got back a couple other pieces, but the centerpiece I gave up was Amon-Ra St. Brown who at the time still felt like a tier lower than Jefferson, so I thought I’d have that projection advantage for the postseason later on. And I ran into some other injuries and barely made the postseason in the final slot after being in great position when I made the trade (good enough that I thought I could weather the missed time easily). The guy I traded with who I thought was losing upside in the important weeks won the league. I wrote about the whole saga in this newsletter.
I realize Rice may not have as much of a ramp up as an injured guy, but it’s hard to just step into 20 point-per-game production!
Rankings- Nucka WR #7 and Adams WR #17, but Stafford QB327
Wouldn't two top 20 WRs make Stafford a top 12 QB?
I understand the back injury is a concern and that is baked into Stafford's ranking, but then are Nucka and Adams too high in the rankings?
Thank you.
Brecken handled this one in the replies for me:
A pure pocket passer like Stafford can get his top players a lot of receptions and yards without being a top fantasy asset himself, especially in an offense we expect to be very concentrated on those two (+ the RBs, who don't catch a lot of passes).
The concentration is key when people do this math about WRs and QBs. But the initial asker also went on to ask this:
Good points. So, you don't think that Stafford could have a 2023 Tua type season? Maybe Stafford can get 4,500 yards and 30-31 TD's? I know that those numbers are higher than where he has been the last few years, but Nuca and Adams may be the best receiving duo that he has had in those years.
I wonder when the last time was that a pocket passer QB had two top WR's and did not finish as a top 12 QB.
There’s a range of outcomes point here, versus rankings. It gets at everything I wrote about here. Matthew Stafford is unlikely to be a meaningful breakout QB for a variety of reasons. But also, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are not ranked where they are on the expectation they will both be that good. There are considerable upside elements to both bets, where you play it one way and not the other. Last year, I explicitly wrote about not wanting to stack Nacua with Cooper Kupp in a price range similar to where Adams is, for best ball builds. I felt that the upside cases were somewhat mutually exclusive, and that you wanted to play it one way or the other.
The bets are not about how many raw points you expect the players to score, but their likelihood of winning leagues, among some other considerations like floor, etc. But Nacua’s price plus Adams’ price includes a double-counting element of what the WR1 ceiling is for the main guy in this offense, which is baked into both of their prices but doesn’t likely exist at the same time for both of them. Stafford wouldn’t benefit from that twice.
(That was a good way of breaking that down. I should pin that somewhere. Nah, let’s just let it be forgotten.)
I have a fun question for keeper leagues (in my league, in a given year, you can take a keeper 2 rounds ahead of where you drafted them the year prior). Given this rule and given my league has 2 IR spots, I decided to take Jonathon Brooks in the 18th round this year. I’m aware he sits out all of this year, but I thought it was kinda a sneaky backup keeper pick - if he rehabs well this year and looks good next preseason, I could see him rising to something like a 4th round ADP next year. Him being on IR also makes early season adds a bit easier, so there’s less opportunity cost in a league where I’ll be able to quickly add a Keaton Mitchell or Ollie Gordon once waivers clear tomorrow. Main question I guess is just - how do you see Brooks factoring into the 2026 fantasy season?
I don’t think there are any scenarios where Jonathon Brooks has a fourth-round ADP next year. I don’t think there are scenarios where he has anything higher than like a Round 8 ADP, and I’d probably put his realistic upside in the Round 11-12 range if the whole offseason breaks well for him and those things. (Round 8 is if his rehab goes amazingly and then everyone else gets hurt and there’s just all this clear indication he’ll be the guy, unopposed. At that point, drafters would still shy away from his ability to stay healthy, but I could see him in the range of a guy like D’Andre Swift this year basically.)
So broadly, I’d say this is a creative idea, but probably too optimistic on the timeline. He’ll still be a 23-year old after coming into the league at 21, and it’s not crazy, but this would be a better move in a full dynasty rather than a keeper where there may only be three guys you can keep or whatever.
And then more broadly, I wanted to share this one because I think it’s an interesting addition to the Rashee Rice conversations I keep having with many of you. This is sort of a logical extension of where that goes, and eventually it does become too assuming.
Anti-fragility/roster construction question for the mailbag: in an auction league, do you think it's less important to save some $ for WR depth so you can win through the bye weeks or would you still set aside some money to get some quality depth (i.e. we shouldn't be thinking about the first two bench spots as $1-2 guys, they should be closer to $5-10 dollar guys)?
I usually like the depth I can get in an auction for not much additional money. The $5-$10 guy range is wide. Probably I’m thinking of it as $2-$6 guys (you run out of money with too many $8-$12 buys).
But part of the answer to this question is the depth of the league. In some of the 10-team leagues I talk to folks about, we’re talking about Luther Burden as a $1 player at the end, or going undrafted. That’s a completely different landscape than if I was looking at a 12-man with multiple flex spots and I really do want the depth and I know that 18-man rosters are going to make the floor very low. I took Malik Washington and Chris Rodriguez as $1 guys in my college auction. If it’s that deep, then yes, I want to do a good job of conserving money to fill out bench spots with meaningful depth.
Love the content….one observation I have is your rankings on the Commanders skill players doesn’t seem to quite add up. If Daniels is projected to be your number 2 qb, surely one of these players is going to have to pop. You have his top receivers ranked 30 and 42, and his top rbs 34 & 46. If he’s a target at 2, it can’t all be based on his rushing, right? What am I missing?
Derek replied:
Last years josh Allen might be a good comp for this. Aside from James Cook at RB8, we didn't see other huge individual performers.
Plus, eventho there's a reasonable chance McLaurin will resign and repeat this year as a top 10 receiver, or Deebo regain his form, there's also enough risk that it makes them lower targets compared to other higher upside WRs.
My attempt to guess at Ben's thinking there
Michael, another separate commenter, replied:
Well, I don't recall Cook being ranked as a top 10 RB before the season last year, either. Last year, there were games where Noah Brown or Olamide Zaccheus were stars.. because of Daniels. I think the general idea is he can elevate the talent around him, but it won't necessarily be consolidate to a few guys in a way that is super playable (this is basically the same thing Derek said re: Josh Allen last year)
also to some degree the rankings are meant to take into account ADP; maybe in a vacuum he'd have JCM higher for example but there's no reason to do that. (though i think it's more that there's no clear superstar who is expected to consolidate)
Mike, the first poster, added:
Yeah that's a fair comparison for sure. The Cook factor though is kind of what I am thinking needs to be reflected in someone's value. Almost impossible for Daniels to end as a top 3 qb without some other skill player ending up high as well.
Here’s what I wrote:
It’s not almost impossible at all. The degree of concentration in an offense is very important and frequently missed. And Daniels flirted with 1,000 rushing yards last year so that’s super important. It basically brings the skill position pie down from a top-five offense to something like a middle of the pack team. Then it’s unconcentrated, which also plays in here because I like to play it from the cheap profiles. I think Jaylin Lane is going to pop late season. I’ve moved JCM up aggressively. I have Ertz ranked in a draftable range at TE. If those guys are good, as well as possibly some other RBs, the higher ADP guys like Terry and Deebo don’t have to be smashes at all.
RB Targets and Fades — the 2025 tiers
"But the second is the lack of shots at the biggest potential value gainers in the entire pool, without creating an imbalanced roster. [...] If you start with three straight RBs, simply put, you’re taking fewer RBs later, which reduces the likelihood of catching those players." Nice little nugget there that I feel actually cuts through a lot of the discourse between robust and zero strategy leaners talking past one another. There's nothing inherently wrong with big RB bets at the top of drafts given the possible reward, but it's tough then to also make bets on later RB while still ending with a competitive roster at the end.
I loved this emphasis on another one of my notes this offseason that I thought was well-articulated.
Hey Ben - great content as always, love your stuff. Question about taking a target player ahead of ADP which you touched on in the home league draft guide. I play in a multi keeper PPR league and ADP is always off from non keeper leagues. I've mapped it out and most likely the 1st RB that will be available for my team at the 2-3 will be Hampton, Henderson or Walker. I only have 1 pick at that turn because I'm keeping Nabers for with my 3rd.
I assume in these situations (keeper leagues) I just take taking Henderson instead of playing the value game since you have him ranked higher? Thanks in advance for any thoughts!
Totally down to just push up someone like TreVeyon Henderson in a spot like this where you know because your keeper wiped out your third you won’t otherwise have access to him.
I'm a little surprised Guerendo fell this far based on the Brian Robinson trade. I saw Robinson as a pretty average talent, and Guerendo is so much more explosive / better pass catcher right? Or do you think Shanahan will like Robinson's reliability more since Guerendo keeps getting hurt?
After I wrote “It’s more just the signal that they made the trade at all,” Michael added:
Got it. So this would be a changing of the contingent vet, where them trading for Brian Robinson signals Guerendo would probably not consolidate if CMC got hurt
And I added:
He's not impossible to draft, it just became way harder to justify ranking him over a ton of other guys I do also see upside for. I wouldn't write him off as being able to consolidate, but he's never really been a workhorse, has had injury issues, and Robinson is a success rate guy and workhorse type, so while Guerendo is obviously way more talented and way more fun and I obviously think they should do that, it's just not a good bet to stash anymore.
TE Targets and Fades — the 2025 tiers
Apologies if this is covered in a piece I haven’t seen but I think I’ve been pretty comprehensive. One thing that’s consistently come to mind when comparing Bowers and McBride to the elites of the past is that those guys were all tied to an all time quarterback in an elite offense (Gronk, Graham, Kelce, etc.)…I’m probably forgetting some counterexamples but wanted to get your thoughts on the two guys this year’s relatively limited contexts as it pertains to hitting the all time outcomes being predicted here.