More thoughts on draft strategy

Structural drafting remains misunderstood

Have a bit of a bone to pick this morning.

I keep hearing this idea that every season is different and the worst thing you can do in a fantasy draft is get stuck on a specific strategy. And honestly, there’s just almost no value in that comment. I hope I’ve been pretty clear that having a preordained plan and then forcing each of your picks to follow that specific plan, without the “detours” or flexibility I talked about in my longer draft strategy writeup, is less than ideal.

At the same time, pigeon-holing something akin to the ideals of Zero RB — perhaps an Anchor RB build — is in no way the worst thing you can do.

And let’s be clear about one thing — this discussion is pretty clearly a commentary on the draft structures that argue to go light at RB in the early rounds. I mean, 95% of structural discussions in 2021 overlap or dovetail with Zero RB. Almost no one is peddling Robust RB, and those that are typically aren’t referring to it as structural drafting or talking about strategy on particularly detailed terms. ADP in best ball contests all summer and into the main drafting season has shifted more toward Zero RB-related strategies like Anchor RB and concepts like the RB Dead Zone. That’s what the discussion is about in the 2021 draft market.

Instead of understanding and arguing against the tenets of Zero RB, though, the common line I keep seeing is we just need to understand the player pool is different each year and all strategies can work, which might as well just be an argument to Draft The Best Players. This commentary paints Zero RB as a strategy that doesn’t adjust or be flexible, despite the fact that Zero RB author Shawn Siegele and I did four podcasts before draft season discussing which core principals you should allow to influence your structure in every draft, and then which ways you can be flexible. The spoiler to those podcasts is almost literally any pick can fit into a build that is akin to a Zero RB team conceptually. If you really have to have a guy, you can do that, but as I said in my initial strategy piece, you need to remain disciplined at other points of the draft so that doesn’t spiral.

We can argue over the semantics of whether that means the draft is still truly Zero RB, or we can be intellectually honest about what is actually being said when structural drafting is discussed. The entire point of structural drafting — which, again, for all practical purposes has become synonymous with the RB-light strategies that Zero RB argues for — is to guide us away from the most common mistakes drafters make and to improve our chances of winning the league even before considering player selection. You’ll have some bad drafts that way under certain circumstances, but the entire point of talking about draft strategy is larger trends that make certain concepts like the RB Dead Zone something to tread very carefully around during almost any draft situation.

Fantasy football league settings don’t change the fragility of the RB position, they simply change the cost/benefit analysis. When I’m in a league where I don’t think it’s optimal to go full Zero RB — say it’s standard scoring and you can only start three WRs — that doesn’t mean I’m throwing everything out the window. My adjustments are made within the confines of what I understand to be the most relevant long-term structural notes, which for this example would probably mean I’m going to be more likely to start with a RB, or perhaps two or even three (gasp!) in the first two or three rounds, such that I don’t wind up putting myself in a position where I’m hammering RB in the dead zone. That doesn’t mean I’m certainly going to do that, either.

And that’s what makes the whole discussion about every year being different difficult. That discussion frames structural drafting as limiting, forcing you into a box that will hurt your ability to construct a winning roster. Meanwhile, the implications of the discussion are that you should more or less not have any structure — you should be willing to fade long-term trends if it seems like this season is different. If every season is a unique and entirely different puzzle to solve, then it’s not about structure at all, but just about the individual players.

The truth very obviously lies somewhere in the middle; Zero RB “fanatics” and non-Zero RB drafters aren’t that different. I’ve talked about how the texture of the dead zone is different this year; it was a central part of my strategy piece that focused on how to employ Zero RB concepts in 2021. I’ve also talked a lot about settings and situations where I’ll make “detours” to the goals I’m trying to accomplish.

On the flip side, I’m not buying those making the claims every year is different are completely ignoring long-term trends where they make sense. I think they are just painting structural drafting as rigid to make their preferred strategy seem flexible by comparison.

But as I said at the top, there’s almost no value in that. That framing doesn’t even come out against Zero RB — it just says you can’t pigeon-hole a strategy into any draft, which obviously leaves the door open for everything. There’s no loose framework to follow, other than if you click the link and read that person’s specific approach for that season.

Part of why I wanted to write this is I get comments that say something along the lines of “I’m ready to go all in with Zero RB this year,” which is always a little concerning. I mean I support it if you’ve never built a team that way — and I do truly believe that isn’t the worst mistake you can make — but I never go into a draft with a mindset I’ll certainly be doing Zero RB. The most, I would say, is a strong feeling I will want to, given a room and specific settings. But I’m always open, in nearly every round of every draft, to shifting my build, based on the draft room. The understanding of structure is what allows me to do that, and allows me to get back on course when I do make some luxury picks here and there, such that I haven’t gone completely off course and built something that has reduced my odds of winning and relies on low probability outcomes to succeed.

That’s all structural discussions are about. Finding ways to build teams that give you the best chance to win. And I would argue even those analysts commenting that every year is different get this, but then it gets back to that concept of tacit knowledge I have discussed before. They do understand how to adjust their builds for the circumstances of their drafts, and can be successful on their own. But their expertise is hard won over years of playing fantasy football, and unless they are explaining their specific adjustments for every possible situation, they aren’t communicating that expertise in a practical way to help others by saying every year is different. They might give you one specific draft plan for 2021, but to their own point, that draft plan won’t work in every room. It’s their tacit knowledge that allows them to adjust on the fly, and it frankly can’t help you.

So honestly, listening to that is the biggest mistake you can make. We all agree the second you don’t understand flexibility, and go into a draft with only one possible approach, you’re in a tough spot. At least the concepts of Zero RB provide a framework and a road map to guide you as you navigate your league.

The second you don’t understand how the decisions you’ve made — and the decisions your leaguemates have made — help inform the decisions you need to make, is the second you’ll start getting on too many detours and building a roster that isn’t going to win without some serious player luck. I’m sorry to be so harsh here, but there’s zero value added in claiming every year is different and the biggest mistake you can make is to get too enamored with structure. Understanding structure is probably the biggest edge left.