Offseason Stealing Signals, AFC & NFC East
The Signal and Noise for each AFC and NFC East team
I’ve been trying to get all my projections and all these posts done by the end of July. I know a lot of you are also waiting on rankings, something I’ve been behind on as well. I hate underdelivering, and missing that self-imposed deadline bothers me, but I’m working toward it, and I’m not cutting corners.
In the spirit of the newsletter being a path into my process, when I’m a bit behind where I want to be, the content falls behind, as opposed to me releasing something that’s only 90% of the way there. But what you’ll find below is I’m still doing the same level of research as you’ve come to expect. And to be clear I’m close to finishing up my full projections and getting where I want to be, with rankings following close behind. These Offseason Stealing Signals posts will then take at least through the end of next week, but the below might take you a few days to read through anyway, so at least I’ve gotten you started.
After I get all of the Offseason Stealing Signals posts, rankings, and projections released by the early part of August, there will be a lot of additional pieces on structure and strategy, some player-specific stuff, draft reviews, and other Draft Kit type analyses to come in the lead-up to Week 1. If you’re looking for a template for what to expect, I suggest scrolling through the archives and seeing what the month-and-a-half leading up to last season looked like.
These four Offseason Stealing Signals writeups will talk through some of what I’ve found. To be honest, a big reason I fired off that post on contingency last week was to set the stage for these pieces. You likely noticed I thought that stuff was interesting but also didn’t have a great way to wrap it up into actionable takeaways. The biggest takeaways will be in each of these team discussions, where I’m discussing the ways to play teams on those terms.
My introduction to this offseason series from last year included this paragraph, which still holds true:
I’m more or less going to just fire off stuff I think is interesting about each team. Things I learned while going through the projections process, including what I think projections will miss. Which trends and narratives being discussed look like signal and which are probably noisy. And definitely a focus on market dynamics and whether the things influencing ADP are valid to provide actionable information on how I’m playing each offense.
If you want more of this type of analysis, including how my favorite projector in the industry is thinking through things, make sure to listen to my appearances with Michael Leone on the Establish the Edge podcast.
Let’s do it.
Buffalo Bills
Key Stat: Stefon Diggs — 62.8% catch rate in 2021 (76.5% in 2020); 0.65 wTPRR in 2021 (0.67 in 2020)
The Bills are a great launching off point because they are one of the few teams this year you can feel pretty confident in, and they’re a team to find ways to have exposure to. And yet, while there weren’t major shakeups, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll taking the Giants’ head gig could have an impact on offensive volume or run/pass splits. It’s still easy to expect a pretty fast-paced team that will throw a lot, and Josh Allen’s development as a passer makes him the easy QB1 given the volume on that side and the value he provides as a rusher.
Stefon Diggs posted a 26.5% TPRR at a 10.5 aDOT in his huge 2020, then a 24.6% at a deeper 11.9 aDOT in his comparatively down 2021. Those came out roughly equal in wTPRR, and while I’ve recently explained the value of the raw targets (the TPRR side), I don’t have major concerns about his ability to earn volume. He also raised his TD rate in 2021 (which had some room to expand) and maintained a nearly identical yards-per-reception figure. His yards per target, though, dropped substantially, almost entirely because he caught 62.8% of targets after an otherworldly 76.5% catch rate in 2020. Put in laymen’s terms, he was more or less the exact same guy, just caught a lower percentage of his targets, and that outcome took him from WR3 in 2020 to a better-than-it-seemed WR7 in 2021. He also wasn’t great in the Bills’ two playoff games, but the Gabriel Davis explosion is I think long-term good for Diggs; for most of the regular season, Diggs was running routes alongside guys who weren’t stressing defenses the way Davis could. My way of viewing Diggs is we saw something close to his ceiling in 2020 and something close to his floor in this offense in 2021, and that is more or less his 2022 range. It makes him a comfortable late first-round pick and he will be my WR4 ahead of Davante Adams.
Gabriel Davis is a super polarizing player, but I did write some about him recently and noted I don’t like the use of market share stats when the biggest question for him is whether he’ll finally be a full-time player this year. My bet is yes, based on the offseason movement. When Day 3 picks hit, they often hit later than their counterparts who go in the first round of the NFL draft. Teams tend to give their top picks opportunity after opportunity early in their careers, and seem to need more evidence a later-round pick is a true diamond in the rough before they turn them loose. Davis has posted great after-the-target efficiency in both yardage and touchdowns through both seasons, even when we set aside the four-touchdown playoff game. His TPRR took a healthy jump in Year 2, and my recent comments on him included some reasons I think there is room for even more growth there, or at least some stability as the routes sample increases. I don’t usually cite red zone or end zone targets because we’re typically talking about such a small sample of plays, but Davis was a top-20 player in both stats last year despite the part-time role, had strong rookie-season figures in 2020, and obviously added to the idea of his strong TD potential in the postseason. There’s also a ton of contingent upside here if Diggs were to miss time. Davis is pricy, but for good reason, and if the routes are there he looks like a quintessential “small miss, big win” player even at the lofty ADP.
Further down the target totem pole, I worry about a flatter target distribution. Davis could be thrown into that, to be sure, but he adds that impressive downfield profile. Dawson Knox is similar, with a strong red zone role and some big air yards at times for a TE, but his TPRR took a bit of a dive in 2021 as he ran more routes in 2020 (14.0%, down from 17.6%). At this stage in his career, he doesn’t look like a guy who will attract high target figures, even in a pass-happy offense, and that makes his top-10 TE price difficult to stomach for me. He’s going this high because he posted a ridiculous 12.9% TD rate last year, but even with that he was only TE10 in points per game last season. I expect his TD rate to remain well above league average because of his specific usage, but that’s a really tough figure to back up; he was at 7% in 2020 and 4% in 2019. I do think Knox makes a little sense in best ball, where we’ve seen the multi-TD games and individual week ceiling before.
Jamison Crowder and Isaiah McKenzie can be more palatable ways to play the spike-week potential. One or a combination of both will cover the slot role, and we’ve seen the weekly spikes in certain matchups in Cole Beasley’s profile the last couple years. Right now, I’m not sure there’s enough target consistency to get them on many of my WR-heavy rosters where I want to be taking bigger swings, but again, their prices are far more palatable than Knox’s.
My Stealing Bananas co-host Shawn Siegele has talked a lot about Devin Singletary this offseason, and I’d defer anyone to his analysis on the exciting player Singletary is. One thing I will note is Singletary has averaged at least three targets per game in each of his three seasons, even in backfield splits that weren’t amazing roles for him. The Bills finally leaned on him late in 2021, then of course drafted James Cook this offseason after they thought they had a deal in place with J.D. McKissic before McKissic did a 180 and took the same deal to stay in Washington. They’ve talked up Cook as a receiving weapon and the market is treating him like their answer for what they were trying to get from McKissic, and in the past we’ve seen the team treat Zack Moss as more of the High-Value Touch guy than Singletary, so that all fits. But the thing I think might be going overlooked in that discussion is Singletary’s receiving, because I’m not sure he’ll be a total zero there even with Cook in the fold, and since I do think you have to expect Singletary to lead as the early-down guy, he’s a pretty solid bet at ADP. Cook is tougher for me, because he’s a rookie, had a limited production profile, and there’s some talk Moss might still factor in. In my projections, I have Cook’s target-to-carry ratio far higher than Singletary’s, but have Singletary’s raw targets in the same general range as Cook’s, which makes Singletary look far better. But I can certainly see the appeal of buying into rookie uncertainty at his also-palatable ADP. This is a backfield that is priced down due to the uncertainty, relative to the strength of the offense. And yet, any play-calling shift with Daboll gone just adds to the potential here, given the offense hasn’t come anywhere close to featuring the position for most of the past two years (I don’t expect that to change, but any shift is likely to be positive for the RBs since our starting point is so unfavorable to them).
Signal: Team — a nice blend of early and late draft options in an offense we want to be in on, with the RBs especially being solid options at cost; Devin Singletary — at least three targets per game all three seasons (probably not a total zero in the passing game, even with James Cook expected to contribute in that area specifically); Gabriel Davis — strong aDOT/red zone profile combination, plenty of upside if routes grow
Noise: Stefon Diggs — 62.8% catch rate in 2021 (way down from 2020, other markers were mostly fine, plenty of room for a bounceback season); Dawson Knox — 12.9% TD rate in 2021 (will have a high rate, but this is astronomical, and it still only made him TE10 in PPR last year, about where he goes in 2022 drafts)
Miami Dolphins
Key Stat: Jaylen Waddle — 23.8% TPRR (tops among rookies with at least 400 routes; 12th in the NFL among players with that route volume); Tyreek Hill — 26.5% TPRR
Tua Tagovailoa had an impressive 67.8% completion percentage last year, owing in part to a low aDOT. Enter Mike McDaniel, who comes over from San Francisco and an offensive system that is a fantastic fit. For years, the 49ers have been a run-first team who use motion and play action at a high rate to disguise play designs and create easy throws at shallow depths that give playmakers room to pick up yards after the catch. Tua’s at least an interesting later-round QB, although not one of my top priorities in part because I can’t get a good read on whether this offense will lean run-heavy (like SF’s typically has) or closer to neutral or maybe even slightly pass-heavy (like the roster seems aligned for).
The addition of Tyreek Hill creates an interesting conundrum, especially since Hill and Jaylen Waddle carry ADPs that are both very aggressive. Waddle was a very impressive target-earner as a rookie who didn’t have quite as many big plays as we might have expected given his athleticism, and looking at him on his own merits, he’s an easy Year 2 breakout profile to like. Hill’s addition does cloud that a touch, but I think Hill and McDaniel’s system could both help Waddle add more explosive plays, which would offset some of a potential dip in targets. Having said that, it also wouldn’t be surprising to me if Waddle was right there on par with Hill in terms of earning volume. This should be a passing game that features both guys heavily, and I would expect some creative usage from both as well, maybe not to the degree McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan used Deebo Samuel in San Francisco, but potentially in the same mold. My guess is the higher-profile Hill will get a few more rush attempts and designed touches, but that’s mostly just a guess. The one known is Hill is still going in a range of drafts (Round 2/3 turn) where the opportunity cost to make that selection is a tier or perhaps even two tiers higher than where you can get Waddle (Round 3/4 turn or sometimes deep into Round 4). That makes Waddle the easier play for me, because the Year 2 upside profile is one we want to be in on, and both guys have contingency-based upside if the other misses time. But the reality is I’m not going out of my way to get either guy above ADP. I could see being very wrong on Hill if Miami just force-feeds him volume, because he’s obviously a gamebreaker.
The guy who also has a lot of contingency-based upside should one of the big two wide receivers miss time is Mike Gesicki. He’s a boring name at this point, and projections tend to get people off these third options in crowded offenses. His profile is solid-if-unspectacular, and while he feels like a “small miss, big hit” kind of pick, I do wonder what the size of the hit would be given last season, where he was very good but not great. He’s also at some risk to the point I’ll make in the next bullet, so Gesicki winds up another guy I like getting after ADP rather than a clear target.
Miami gave fullback Alec Ingold $3.5 million guaranteed on a two-year, $6.5 million deal to come over from the Raiders. He’s not in play for fantasy, but he’s been a serviceable pass-catcher for Vegas and should be seen as the answer to Kyle Juszczyk in McDaniel’s offense. The use of a fullback tends to mean fewer three-WR sets, although that’s muddied a bit by Gesicki being something of a hybrid TE/WR. But you’d think if Ingold is playing to the same degree Juszczyk has traditionally in San Francisco’s offense, that Hill and Waddle are the two WRs and there’s also a RB on the field, which only leaves one more slot in that subset of offensive formations, and that subset might be fairly large. Cedrick Wilson’s contract and profile puts him in the mix for the third-most targets on the team, but this offensive scheme dynamic makes him a draft-day pass and someone to flag on waivers if opportunity opens up via injury or the offense looking a little different than San Francisco’s over the past few years. The risk to Gesicki I mentioned above is if Ingold plays a lot, and Gesicki is viewed as more of a WR who splits with Wilson some in that final skill position slot in those formations, and Ingold is instead used as the extra blocker that an inline TE is sometimes used as, then Gesicki’s routes could have a cap.
Speaking of notable contracts and fit, Chase Edmonds is the RB who seems to have a locked-in role as the passing downs and a solid share of the rush work. He would seem to fit as the explosive-play rusher in this scheme, but that’s sometimes called the Raheem Mostert role, and Miami brought in Mostert himself. Mostert is of course one of the most difficult RBs in the league to trust from a health standpoint, but any work he gets isn’t great for Edmonds. Following up on the Ingold note, since Juszczyk landed in San Francisco he’s averaged 30 catches per 17 games, and as a result no SF RB has had more than 33 catches in a season over those five years. I’m projecting Edmonds for more than that, but he’s squeezed a couple different ways, and his price has him in a range where I’m often grabbing the tail end of the real upside WRs, so he never feels like a draft priority for me as I tend to like the RBs I can get a couple rounds after him more than the WRs I can get a couple rounds after what I’m looking at as an alternative to Edmonds.
Mostert and Sony Michel are basically free and one seems likely to have some solid value at least for a stretch this year. Michel would appear to be the top option for some of the inside rushing stuff. One way the whole group might fail to really put their stamp on 2022 is if they are in a reasonably even committee while Hill and Waddle are indeed used quite a bit in a Deebo-esque way and Ingold’s role also siphons off some of the overall RB upside. But broadly, if McDaniel can implement San Francisco’s offense, we should probably expect at least one of these backs to be good for a stretch, and possibly multiple of them at various points throughout the season. It’s a group to watch the news on throughout August, for sure, but Mostert and Michel are my preferred options as the cheap ways to play it.
Signal: Alec Ingold — strong fullback contract, would impact distribution of routes and overall volume across the ancillary receiving pieces and RB group if in a Kyle Juszczyk type role; Tua Tagovailoa — Mike McDaniel’s system feels like a perfect fit for his lower-aDOT style, getting the ball in playmakers’ hands in space
Noise: Jaylen Waddle — any concern he’s a “No. 2” because we’re probably dealing with co-No. 1s here, but more so because Waddle’s profile is exciting on its own