Offseason Stealing Signals, Chiefs & Texans
Can new lead RBs anchor these offenses?
I’m not going to write much of an intro today, as I just want to get going on this project. Today, we’re continuing the plan in the early going of targeting offenses with limited coaching and philosophical changes, hoping to dial in the early projections process with some teams that lean to the science side of the art/science balance. If you’re wondering when you might see a certain team, hopefully that will help you plan, as you can expect a bunch of the teams where I have better trends to build off in these early posts, before I have to do more guesswork on the back end of the project.
Both the Chiefs and Texans acquired new lead RBs this offseason, though that’s about where the comparisons for these two offenses stop. Let’s start with Kansas City, who I hilariously thought I didn’t have a lot of notes for at first before writing thousands of words breaking everything down.
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Stat: Rashee Rice — 29% TPRR, 67.9% catch rate (career rate now 74.6%)
Relevant Signals Quote: “When you go back to that first game where (Xavier) Worthy was hurt right away, and recall that Brown seemed to take over his role in the gameplan en route to 16 targets and 10 catches for 99 yards, including a lot of manufactured stuff, it’s hard not to see the entire season’s elevated aDOT as a response to that shoulder issue that was known to be a reinjury risk.” (Field Tippers)
Chiefs Field Tippers pass-catcher analysis
If you’re tired of me being too high on the Chiefs, maybe turn away. It’s not like my opinion didn’t change due to the 2025 season, but one of the things I’ve been arguing about the Chiefs for a few years is they seemed to be trying to build a better skill position unit to get back to a more dominant offense, like they had earlier in Patrick Mahomes’ career. That has required trying to combat the different ways they’ve been played defensively, and it hasn’t worked between some bad injury luck and also a weird devaluation of the running back position that seemed to be a tactical error. Last year was a low point, capped by Mahomes tearing his ACL in Week 14, and there’s not much of the vibe I just described about this team being a sleeping giant, with more of fixation on early-season expectations of run-heaviness. Mahomes seems like he’ll be ready for Week 1, but the team doesn’t even want to commit to that. And yet. Is this not the setup for it to actually hit, when expectations are low? They missed the playoffs entirely last year, so that urgency they’ve felt to be better offensively should be at an all-time high. Among the changes they made were finally addressing RB, and also bringing back offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who was last with the team in 2022 when Mahomes threw for a career-high 5,250 passing yards, plus 41 TDs, both of which led the league. They lost two key corners before drafting one in the top 10 in a series of moves that might put a little more pressure on their pass defense, which could force the offense into trickier spots, although another unique thing this year is the 10th-most favorable schedule in the league, which runs against the typical annual discussion of how their schedule is one of the most difficult in the league. Last year, when they were struggled a bit, they did get aggressive, averaging 65.3 plays before Mahomes’ injury, and never totaling fewer than 57 in any game (before they had games down at basement levels of 42 and 43 in Weeks 16 and 17 to pull their season average down to 62.4). They also finished second in PROE leaguewide for the season, which is I believe still their lowest rank in Mahomes’ career (they were No. 1 for several years in a row, and I think only one other time finished second). It’s just an organizational philosophy to throw more than game state dictates, so while they may run more for the first month, it’s important to contextualize that with an understanding that the Chiefs running more probably doesn’t even mean they finish league average in PROE, i.e. they are still very likely to be a top-10 team in that stat when it’s all said and done, finishing with a pass lean, just maybe not as extreme of one. What all this means to me is you do have to stay very open to a mix of more aggressiveness than expected and also maybe some statement offensive games if things fit together the way I think they have the potential to, so long as Mahomes’ knee rehab continues to go well. Summer reports there will be key to monitor, but if all seems positive, this does seem like a situation to target.
The biggest new piece is Kenneth Walker, a big-play back that can eat up available yards, something Chiefs’ opponents have tended to leave available for lesser running backs over the past several years. I think Walker’s going to be really big in tying everything together, because either he’ll benefit if defenses don’t adjust by being better than guys like Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, or he’ll eventually prove to be the first back dynamic enough to actually make defenses move back down toward the box with a bit more intent, and give Mahomes at least the occasional more advantages defensive look to throw against, off things like play action. I’m not worried about stuff like Walker’s success rate, because we’re talked about a huge improvement over the other guys who have been in this backfield in recent years, and we’re also probably looking at him running against the most favorable defensive fronts of his career. To put some numbers to the claim Walker is much better than the other guys, neither Pacheco or Hunt had a breakaway run rate (percentage of carries over 15+ yards) better than 1.3% over either of the past two years; Walker’s was 7.7% last year, and his career low is 3.9%. In terms of evasion, Walker’s MTF/touch was 0.273 last year and was over 0.30 the two years prior, while Pacheco’s career high even back before his major injury was 0.164, and Hunt hasn’t been over 0.20 since he was 27 and playing in Cleveland in 2022. What we’re talking about with Walker is a big-play threat who steps into a role that has elevated RBs with poor peripherals to better yardage efficiency than they probably earned because they had so much daylight to consistently run to. Bieniemy has also already emphasized Walker’s ball-in-hand ability, and the quotes this offseason have been about what he does without the ball, namely blocking and route running, but it seems like the protection stuff really, because that was part of why Zach Charbonnet stayed on the field last year and the Chiefs really seem to want to be able to keep Walker out there. They obviously paid him.
Behind him, I had a hard time with backup RB carries. Emari Demercado has had some consistently fun efficiency, but he’s also been treated more like a passing-down back, and what we see with those types is their rushing efficiency often benefits from lighter fronts because of things like throwaway carries on third-and-long. To wit, Demercado’s rate of carries from under center and against stacked boxes were both way lower than the lead backs in Arizona’s offense last year. He’s taking shotgun handoffs from clear pass looks against nickel or dime defenses at a high clip. Meanwhile, Brashard Smith had 35 targets against 44 carries last year, and 12 of those carries came in Week 18. In years past, guys like Samaje Perine and Jerick McKinnon would play roles for this team where they would be targeted more times than they’d be given the ball on rush attempts; both Demercado and Smith feel like threats for that type of usage. Smith actually ran just 108 routes last year to rack up those targets, seeing a 30.6% TPRR that showed some real intent to get him the ball, but if you want to be stoked about 2026, the other signal here is they couldn’t get him on the field for any additional work and then made three offseason acquisitions to step on his path to playing time going forward. They seem to think he’s limited, but I’m still intrigued by the athleticism, and his work in the return game may keep him on the active gameday roster most weeks.
That leaves Emmett Johnson, the rookie, and he’s one people like as a bit of a sleeper, including my podcast cohost Shawn Siegele (who I’ll note was very into him pre-draft, in case you’re wary of him being a fan of yet another Chiefs’ rookie). To be honest, I don’t really see enough to think Johnson will buck the recent trend of rookie disappointments in Andy Reid’s offenses (but I also know enough not to be certain of anything). Johnson’s breakaway rate was poor, though his YACo and evasion stuff was decent when you consider the lack of big plays. His athleticism is pretty average, and one of the fun things is he had 85 catches over the past two years with OK receiving efficiency, but I feel like the depth chart stuff makes that tough to project; he seems like he might be fourth in line for RB targets, unless they just really don’t want to use Smith on offense at all, but that seems like a weird read when you consider his 30%+ TPRR last year and that they also got the ball in his hand with 24 returns. I didn’t know how much rushing to project for Johnson, and it’s not out of the question he could have a real role as a between-the-tackles guy off of Walker if the Chiefs do limit Walker in some of the same ways Seattle always did. At the same time, there are outcomes where Johnson is just inactive on gamedays a lot early in the season. I probably fall more on the side that Johnson might be a bit buried this year, but he’s one to keep an eye on. To be clear, I think the veteran Demercado is likely to be the main No. 2, at least early on, and to probably maintain a passing-down role even if one of the youngsters starts to cut in. The question would be the size of Walker’s role, but I think the investment in him suggests the best bet is that should be pretty large.
It’s a little counterintuitive with Mahomes coming off injury, but I would up having his passing efficiency improving this year. First, he’s rarely had healthy weapons in recent seasons. More to the point, I’ve detailed how I think his yardage efficiency could benefit from an effective run game, and then I think his pass touchdown rate could also benefit from some of the Walker success rate concerns and lack of a clear backup grinder to fill that Kareem Hunt goal-line role. Walker will probably be fine, and I do have him running a healthy rushing TD rate, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw some more of the creative short passing TDs the Chiefs used to run more of, back when Bieniemy was the OC. I do want to note that I have Mahomes’ scramble rate, rushes per game, YPC and rush TD rate all lower than his typical numbers. I think his rushing stuff will be worse this year off the ACL, and frankly that also plays into why his pass TD rate could rise, if he’s not scrambling for TDs as much. But I don’t have those numbers crazy lower than his typical stats, either — if he’s out there, I do expect him moving around. He plays how he plays.
One other note before getting into the pass-catching stuff is LT Josh Simmons was good in pass pro last year but missed about half the year, in his rookie year after being a first-round pick many thought was a steal at the end of the round. He was coming off injury last year, but there could be paths to a Year 2 step forward. Between him and center Creed Humphrey being one of the best in the league at his position, this offensive line could have two key anchors in an upside outcome. They are hoping for just solid play at the other spots, it seems, but the result could be a decent unit.
With Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster gone, things look more concentrated at WR. I’m going to start with depth pieces. Rookie fifth-rounder Cyrus Allen is very athletic, then his collegiate teammate last year Jeff Caldwell is a true athletic freak. Caldwell had the second-highest RAS behind only Calvin Johnson, as he stands over 6-4 and weighs 216, but ran a 4.31 and has insane jumps. He didn’t do agility stuff which can probably be read as something that would’ve brought his athletic score down a bit, but he’s exciting. And yet, the Chiefs actually selected Allen ahead of him — Allen’s smaller at 5-11, 183, but has athleticism at that size, and did have 13 TDs at Cincinnati last year. He played at three schools, and Caldwell was with Cincinnati last year after three years in FCS, so both bounced around. Both played with Brendan Sorsby, a potential future NFL prospect being discussed a lot because of gambling stuff, but the team only had about 3,000 passing yards and neither of the new Chiefs rookies turned their athletic profiles into elite production other than those TDs for Allen I mentioned. They’re probably depth pieces.
I started there because they look like the fifth and sixth WRs, assuming Jalen Royals is in the 3/4 discussion with Tyquan Thornton. I got pretty excited about Royals doing the projection, because Thornton was in a smaller role than I remembered last year. He was good, and his successful plays were impactful, but Thornton had an aDOT of 27.8 as probably the deepest I can remember, and actually finished the season with just 19 catches. He did have over 1,000 air yards and turned those into 438 actual yards, but there’s not a whole lot here unless we get different deployment and different types of production to go along with that deployment. Otherwise, you’re talking about a big-play guy who is only on our radar because he already hit the big plays at a high rate last year, and that stuff is typically not sticky so there would be risk of fewer deep catches and then there’s nothing (across Thornton’s three years in New England, he never had a YPT over 6.0 because those plays didn’t hit, and then last year his YPT was 11.8). I do think he has good ball-tracking ability, but I’ll also note he played over 70% of the snaps each of the first three weeks of the season, as Rashee Rice was suspended and Xavier Worthy got hurt right away, but then from there Thornton’s season high was 51%, so settled into a more rotational role quickly and stayed there all year (he never played more than a third of the snaps in any game from Week 6 to Week 14).
So while Royals did nothing last year after a preseason knee injury, if Thornton does stay in a limited role (I’m thinking of him as the new Justin Watson basically), Royals has a shot to eat up some of the JuJu work over the past several years and maybe be a meaningful third WR. Royals did have an intriguing profile and the talk last offseason was how he could play all the WR positions. He seems to be doing well in minicamp in Rice’s absence, and I’m definitely paying attention for summer hype here.
On the top two WRs, in Field Tippers I theorized Worthy’s shoulder injury impacted everything last year, and the Chiefs have more or less outright said that. You can read my notes on Worthy there, but his aDOT spiked in 2025 relative to 2024, because the manufactured ball-in-hand stuff mostly disappeared. He also had the ankle thing that clearly hampered his explosiveness for a midseason stretch. He’s small, so these are things that might just always pop up for him, but keep in mind how young he was coming in as well, as he just turned 23 this April. He’s younger than both the rookies Allen and Caldwell, and had more yards than Caldwell and not many fewer than Allen did last year, while they were in college and he was playing through injuries in the NFL. Still, as I wrote in Field Tippers, Worthy’s 2025 definitely does make me less excited about rostering him going forward. I just think it’s important to frame his season properly: Had he had a really productive year, that would’ve been wildly impressive given age, shoulder and ankle injuries, and team issues that also hurt guys like Rice. That doesn’t mean Worthy will definitely be good, either but he was already polarizing enough that his 2025 naturally creates a type of confirmation bias that clouds the analysis.
That leaves Rice, who in some ways is least interesting. Rice’s 29% TPRR showed he continues to be a target-dominant player. I have no idea about suspension risk; he’s currently in jail, unexpectedly, so he’s having to rehab a clean-up surgery while in there, because of a probation issue. His off-field stuff has been among the most difficult to follow over the decade I’ve covered the league, but he served a suspension for the wreck last year, and I don’t think this jail time would necessarily require a new suspension. What happened for him in 2025 is his YPT cratered, dragging down his YPRR despite that elite TPRR, but it was still strong at 2.15, despite being a career low. What’s good is his YPT was worse not because his elite YAC skills regressed hard, but because of catch rate, where he fell to 67.9% — still high, but far off from his previously crazy 77.5% and small-sample 82.8% rates from his first two years. With a really low aDOT, I don’t think you have to expect his catch rate to get even worse or anything; I’m projecting it at 70%, which is higher than I pretty much ever project a WR, but I’d also argue might be a bit conservative as his career number now sits at 74.6%. Anyway, we got more information in 2025 he’s a target-dominant No. 1, and this feels like a good time to be buying, assuming the off-field stuff doesn’t get in the way.
My perception on Travis Kelce is his efficiency rebounded some because he was left pretty open for a few probably unsustainable big plays. His TPRR fell to 17.9% after never previously being below 20%, and he had multiple costly drops that went right to defenders for INTs (still so weird how that kept happening, I think it was three times, arguably costing them two games?). Kelce’s obviously deteriorating, and he’s also obviously someone whose skills were high enough before they started to fall off that he still has ability to find space, catch the ball, and gain yards when defenses aren’t keying on him. There’s small hit potential from that, but I think risk it gets pretty bad this year, too. I’m out.
Signal: Patrick Mahomes — likely to run less off an ACL, but could see his passing efficiency boosted by an effective ground game; Kenneth Walker — far better peripherals than past lead backs in this offense, potential for a lot of carries as backup RBs aren’t necessarily well-positioned to share a lot of the rushing work (high ceiling overall as great fit for the offense); Rashee Rice — target-dominant No. 1 WR, good bet; Jalen Royals — intriguing name to watch all offseason as a decent No. 3 job might be available
Noise: Chiefs — discussion of run-heaviness early in season (will likely be true, but they were second in the league in PROE last year, continuing a years-long trend, and should still be expected to be an above-average pass volume offense through the 2026 season; Travis Kelce — efficiency rebound in 2025 (multiyear trend still shows declining YAC, TPRR numbers, among other concerns); Xavier Worthy — any certainty he can’t be more than he’s been (still so young, tough circumstances last year, but there are obvious concerns, too); Tyquan Thornton — expectation of meaningful role (only 19 catches last year, lost snaps as season progressed, meaningful deep target role with over 1,000 air yards but ultimately a role player); Chiefs — figuring out backup RB splits (could go a lot of ways among three names)