Preseason Stealing Signals, Week 1
The Signal and the Noise from around the league in Pre-Week 1
We’re in a fascinating part of the calendar for full-offseason fantasy players, where news suddenly becomes massive. I’ve done some recent drafts with people where my unwillingness to buy into a particular note caused discontent, where it’s like I must be crazy for not reacting.
And I mean, it’s worth pointing out that there are absolutely guys whose stories start in the early August news cycles. It’s also worth pointing out that we’re not trying to predict Week 1 usage; Josh Jacobs only played 60% of the snaps in Week 1 last year, then 72% in Week 2, 64% in Week 3, and then 89% in Week 4 as he’d go on to play a monster role whenever fully healthy the rest of the way. His routes ticked up similarly — his 39% routes in Week 1 was his lowest figure of the year, and his 42% in Week 2 was his third lowest. He was up at 55% by Week 3 and 62% by Week 4, and that’s more or less the range he sat in the rest of the year. After just one target each of the first two weeks, he’d average more than 4 per game the rest of the season, a big part of his monster season. (It’s cliché, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that all came after he famously played in the Hall of Fame game and the fantasy market overreacted.)
With the preseason cut down to three games and the regular season moved to 17, we’re going to see more and more of this stuff, where teams treat their first few regular season games with a little caution, and young guys are learning on the fly. That’s OK. Fantasy seasons aren’t decided in September, and they are certainly not decided in August. But we have a lot of analysts acting as if every team should be analyzed the same, or that all these teams have had private meetings where they’ve determined how they are going to use every player all season, and how their volume will be parsed out.
Early in the preseason here, some players are getting run because they are young, or in a new offense. Others are sitting because they are maybe a little banged up and there’s no reason to rush them. It’s a case-by-case thing, both within certain rosters and also across the league as different organizations approach things differently. There are nuggets to be gleaned, but we need to do it carefully.
I’ve referenced the podcast series The Playcallers liberally in recent posts, and there is just so much there from actual NFL head coaches that it’s just such a triumph from Jordan Rodrigue and the people over at The Athletic. One minor moment plays in here again today, and that’s about the psychology of players.
In that podcast, Kyle Shanahan talked through his development and maturity as a head coach by referencing a years-old conversation with his dad, former NFL coach Mike Shanahan, who questioned why the hell he’d call a Hail Mary on the last play of the first half in a game where Kyle Shanahan’s QB had already thrown an interception, and then another interception was made on that Hail Mary. And Kyle recounts his response was, because, duh, why wouldn’t you go for the lucky break and the points right before half? But then he goes on to say that as he’s matured, that’s something he thinks twice about, because his dad’s point was the QB is going to be psychologically impacted by having another INT on his stat line when he comes out for the second half — i.e. instead of one INT, he starts the second half with two, and it might be a very small hindrance to him pulling the trigger on a pass they need in the second half, because he’s got it in the back of his mind he doesn’t want to throw the third (or fourth, or whatever).
If this anecdote was shared while going to halftime of an island game, where Shanahan ran out the clock and the announcers told you why, social media would probably explode in judgment. I would probably be holding my pitchfork high, right near the front of the mob, laughing at Shanahan making a suboptimal decision in terms of win probability — with very little risk to that decision — simply to try to protect the fragile ego of his quarterback.
But there’s a reason Shanahan chose this play — and its extremely low risk — as his example. He wanted to emphasize that even when there are limited confounding factors, and no other reason you wouldn’t do a certain thing, the psychology of his players might be enough of a reason.
My point is that coaches do think about the stuff that we might think they are stupid to think about. Shanahan literally said so, and he cited a coach from an older era (his dad) who couldn’t believe he wouldn’t consider that, and he talked through how his perspective on that has evolved. Those two coaches have worked with a ton of other coaches — if this idea was so crazy, it would have been snuffed out of the league, or at least Shanahan wouldn’t just tell that story like it’s no big deal.
I’ve been thinking about that anecdote as it relates to Quentin Johnston, who struggled with drops in his first preseason action. Some saw that as confirmation bias of a flaw in his prospect profile (he’s been given the dreaded “body catcher” label), while I have to say that while I’m not completely unconcerned, I did find some real positives in his usage. The team threw him the ball on a quick pass on his first snap, then on a curl a minute later, then a deep shot, and later on a red zone play where he was the first read. He wound up with 6 targets on just 12 routes! An astronomical 50% TPRR! I kid, but in seriousness, I read that as them trying to get him in-game reps to speed up him timeline so he’s ready for a full WR3 role closer to Week 1 than, say, Week 5 or Week 9 like some rookies. They drafted him in the first round for a reason, and he’ll get opportunities to fail, but there wasn’t a player that I felt was more clearly getting focused in on, in the limited first-team reps we saw this past weekend. That’s a net positive to me.
I’ll cite another interesting offseason storyline — when Ron Rivera went public with players’ comments about Eric Bieniemy’s toughness in practice. I take him at his word that he put his foot in his mouth there, which he acknowledged and used as a tactic to get that story to blow over quickly (which it did), but I do find it at least a little dubious that it was all a big mistake. Rivera’s been around a long time, and that was just such a breach of locker room rules that I do think on some level there was probably some, “This needs to get communicated one way or another” to it, where maybe the message wasn’t getting conveyed behind the scenes. And I would expect despite the poor reaction, Bieniemy’s approach probably did soften a bit in reaction to that whole ordeal, when even his old-school defensive head coach thinks he needs to dial it back a bit.
Occam’s Razor would say I’m out over my skis on that one, but it’s at least important to consider that different coaches have different styles when we look at how they are managing their rosters right now. We are so thirsty for information in the fantasy space, but not all news is equal. Most acknowledge this, but still it’s difficult to parse, especially when we consider our own expectations, biases (like confirmation bias), and the data and research we’ve done.
Ultimately, there is more information to come, because there are more practices and games to come, because not everything is decided yet! I’m not saying we can’t read the tea leaves, but we also have to not overread them when we’re still a month out from Week 1. And to that point, I do think it’s worth noting real quick before I get into the game-by-game breakdown that for two big August risers last year that did hit in-season, the hype might have sucked a considerable amount of the potential profit out of their prices, even in good outcomes. I say this knowing there are confounding factors, and we’re looking for elite upside, and risers sometimes constitute elite upside. But we steam up every player, it seems, without thinking through their range of outcomes. So I note these two players simply because I looked into them and was going to use them as positive examples of camp risers where the hype was legit (only to find their nice outcomes weren’t even that beneficial for fantasy).
Isiah Pacheco posted a slightly below average win rate in FFPC Slims at an ADP around 150, well below where the steam brought him to, and his win rate was only slightly above average in the Classic drafts, at an even later ADP. He was more valuable in managed leagues by becoming a clear starter where it became obvious when to start him (and in reality, he went on to be a key piece of the Chiefs’ offense throughout the latter part of the season and Super Bowl run). Things could have broken a bit better for him, but to be fair one of the concerns at his rising price was the upside scenarios were starting to get priced out, and it’s kind of telling that he’s still going in generally the same area as the projected starter this year (Round 7-8ish, while his late steam last year had him in at least the Round 9 range, and sometimes higher).
Dameon Pierce had slightly positive win rates in FFPC best balls, and his ADPs in the two formats were 137 and 107, and he wound up in the Round 5 or Round 6 range in September drafts. Again, things could have broken better because he did get hurt and miss the end of the season, but the concern about his steam was whether he’d get the high-value touches and whether the Texans would score enough points, which proved to be very valid.
Again, I didn’t go look up data on those two — which isn’t even great data, to be honest — to start truthering their seasons. Rather, I was trying to find a data point on how they were August risers who became hits. I was just surprised to see the actual numbers, but again, those were some of the concerns with buying into them in situations where for Pierce, the team sucked and he had a TRAP profile, and for Pacheco, he was never likely to be rid of Jerick McKinnon even if Clyde Edwards-Helaire was out of the picture (although to be fair, the crazy McKinnon TD rate could have shifted some to Pacheco and his win rate would have looked better).
Just keep those guys in mind as potential examples of this point about steaming up every player without thinking through the range of outcomes.
At the end of the day, all I can do is tell you how I’m reading stuff, which I’m going to do here. Real quick, if you’re into preseason stats, Establish The Run’s Adam Levitan had an absolutely fantastic thread breaking down some key considerations. In Levitan’s typical Twitter style, he’s not weighing down the facts with a bunch of opinion, so I’ll do some of my own interpreting here while citing several of those tweets. (Unfortunately, I can’t embed tweets in Substack anymore, so you’ll get clunky screenshots, but please go follow Adam and like and retweet all his tweets and all of those things.)
Texans 20, Patriots 9
Devin Singletary getting reps with a new team wasn’t super surprising (he looked elusive, which was nice to see), but as a veteran I thought he might have rested like Dameon Pierce did. Suggests Pierce as a pretty clear lead I think, which was expected.
C.J. Stroud might struggle. He was under pressure a lot, and as I’ve written it’s just not something he dealt with a lot at Ohio State. He looked solid delivering the ball, but first half of the season we might see sacks and INTs and bailing out of pockets the way we do with some rookies who need reps. I’d say these guys are a DST target for sure.
Tank Dell did all his work with Davis Mills after Stroud went off, and while he’s definitely exciting, it’s still a little bit crowded in Houston’s WR room with Robert Woods, Nico Collins, and John Metchie all factoring in, not to mention Noah Brown who might as well.
I wrote about this elsewhere, but it’s telling to me that the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott after seeing Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris in this game. I thought Strong looked alright and Harris looked bad, but that’s not super relevant now.
Tyquan Thornton made a nice catch, but he’s having a poor camp apparently, so I’ve moved off him for the time being.
Noise: Tank Dell — looked good, but worked with Davis Mills, and is still a long way from being a big producer with the first team in a bad offense (also remains a tough projection at his size)
Seahawks 24, Vikings 13
Ty Chandler balled out, and head coach Kevin O’Connell even said so. He might have wrapped up the No. 2 role there. The Kene Nwangwu stuff is insane; again, he never had 100 touches in a college season, and is a special teams player who is very athletic so people think he’s going to be the handcuff. DeWayne McBride looked alright, too, in a situation where the blocking wasn’t ideal. Chandler is a big draft target at his very cheap cost.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba got that leak route in the flat on the first play for a very short gain. That’s the exact play I visualize when I talk about the “Cooper Kupp” role in Shane Waldron’s offense. It was well-defended, but seeing him get used like that on the first play — I mean, I didn’t need more of a reason for wheels up but there we go. There’s concern about his two-WR set usage, but that’s an extreme upside argument; three-WR sets are the base for most offenses, and I’d expect it here. There’s a difference between 60%-70% routes and 90%, but you don’t fade a talent like JSN because he might start at only 60%-70% routes. He can produce there.
Zach Charbonnet looked solid. Liked seeing him in action and looking healthy. He ran over a dude at one point suggesting the shoulder is in good health.
Jordan Addison had a sweet toe tap on the sideline. Good body control. Didn’t see a lot of him but was good to see that.
Signal: Ty Chandler — looked great, and is in a potentially very valuable handcuff situation where he could earn work from a weak starter in Alexander Mattison (Chandler is a big draft target)
Noise: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — two-WR set stuff (the designed look was fantastic, and the exact type of role we want to see him in; he’s one of my biggest targets)
Packers 36, Bengals 19
Jordan Love honestly looked pretty solid, with a quick pass to Aaron Jones, a deep shot to Christian Watson that got knocked away, going to a wide open Luke Musgrave on third down, and then getting to Romeo Doubs for the touchdown. Musgrave and Doubs played a bunch with the first team here, and both remain good targets in a young receiving group.
Just to be transparent, seeing Watson play, I definitely felt a little unsure about my pessimism on him. Got asked today why I don’t have him as a Target on the sheet given his statistical profile, and I’ve talked about it before where it’s a bit more of a feel thing than numbers-based, but I’m not strong in this conviction. He could make me look silly for this point, and I do still have him ranked decently. If you’re into him, don’t let me be the one to talk you off; plenty of sharp people love him.
Thought the whole Packers offense was as billed, usage-wise. A.J. Dillon got some early rushing as well, after the quick Jones catch (Jones maybe only played that one token snap).
Bengals didn’t really play anybody, or I didn’t have any notes.
Signal: Luke Musgrave, Romeo Doubs — all 12 snaps with Jordan Love, both caught passes, should both play a solid role in a passing game where veteran deference won’t be a thing because there aren’t veterans
Steelers 27, Buccaneers 17
Kenny Pickett looked great, hitting Diontae Johnson for three easy completions where Diontae looked quick, which is great to see. Pat Freiermuth snagged one as well. Then George Pickens had the highlight you’ve probably seen. It was a really nice drive and was as billed for me and what I’ve written I think about this team. Allen Robinson played but didn’t get in the way of the other guys getting targets.
Thought Jaylen Warren looked shifty, and Najee Harris did not. Don’t feel concerned about those positions, and those are two of the biggest stances in my portfolio, so I am keeping a close eye on it (I’ve taken Warren more than any other player on Underdog, and have not drafted Harris, because I do not buy that the Steelers with a potentially ascending young QB will just play a RB who isn’t producing all year, for the third straight year, because Mike Tomlin has traditionally favored workhorses when he had guys like Le’Veon Bell). The Steelers seemed to take both Najee and Warren out after the first drive, and move on to Anthony McFarland, suggesting the RB split with the first team was at least a consideration (again, Warren was far more efficient as a runner and a receiver, and some of the running stuff was due to lighter boxes on third downs and those things, but using him there at a minimum only makes sense).
The Bucs didn’t play Rachaad White, and the broadcast noted he’s the clear lead back, but they did run the ball a lot, and definitely gave a little bit of a disaster vibe that had me more concerned about my Chris Godwin and Mike Evans bags than I expected to be after the first time I saw Baker Mayfield in a Bucs uniform. Which, that’s on me. Mayfield did wind up completing 8-of-9 passes for 63 yards and a TD to my guy Trey Palmer, who made a sweet play in the back of the end zone on that one, caught all four of his targets, and looks like he might make the team and be someone to keep a deep dynasty eye on. (Godwin and Evans also didn’t play.)
