QB Targets and Fades — Interpreting the Tiers
Do we pay up? Or play late-round QB?
I’ve had a hard time with QB strategy this offseason, often talking about how it can be played at any price point, and you really should adhere to only making a QB pick when the other positions are flat.
What that meant crystallized for me during the Signals Gold stream last night. I came to the realization that in any league of sufficient depth, I was going to want to push QB as much as possible. Some of you have asked about Superflex strategy, and in the past I’ve been pretty pro-Elite QB, even starting QB-QB, which has been effective at times. But I see real dropoffs of talent at the top of the non-QB positions, and building in elite non-QBs would be my preference this year, since I love the idea of hitting the Targets in the middle price ranges, and I also am very comfortable playing QB late.
But in single-QB home leagues especially, where there isn’t much scarcity at the position, that really becomes viable. My estimation is there are going to be viable waiver wire QBs in most home leagues, with Drake Maye being likely an in-season target, and something like the combo I fell in love with during the stream last night — Justin Fields and Bo Nix — as a really strong duo to leave your draft with in the literal last two rounds.
Now, when I say “really strong,” I clearly mean that with respect to price. But if Fields earns the Week 1 starting nod, as things seem to be shifting toward, he’d be a really solid Week 1 fantasy starter. And then along with that, you’d have Nix, and I’ve written all offseason about how I think he’ll be a perfectly stable QB this year. His weekly upside may not be massive, with what is likely a low aDOT on his passing volume, but I think the offense will score some, and he’ll have some TDs at times, plus he does offer some mobility. So if Fields crashes and burns, you’d have a backstop of a guy who will likely throw for 200 yards most weeks, maybe run for 20 more, and likely be involved in at least one TD or perhaps two. That’s a perfectly cromulent last-round starting QB, particularly when he’s the backup plan to Fields’ upside.
I’m starting at the back to let you know there are always options. You’re not going to get left out in the cold. At the same time, when you’re in shallower leagues (e.g. only starting two WRs), or in home leagues where the pressure to get enough stud WRs in the early rounds isn’t there, you can also make your big QB swings when it makes sense. In fact, it’s probably pretty necessary, since you sort of need to find good uses of early draft capital.
Josh Allen still has monster upside, and Jayden Daniels is still my favorite cost-adjusted QB bet this year if you want to dip into the QB market in the middle rounds. In really deep leagues, it can be more difficult to find the Maye or Nix or Fields types on the waiver wire; they’ll be drafted and stashed by someone. There are caveats, and there are still so many ways to play the position in 2024, and it does ultimately all come down to league type and understanding opportunity cost.
But. All else equal. When late-round QB is perfectly viable, there’s no rush. It’s definitely feeling like that kind of season.
Here are the Cliff’s Notes for how I do tiers, with more info in the WR Targets and Fades piece. You can also find the TE tiers here.
Bold means the player is a target, while italics means he’s a fade
The “Big Tier Break” denotes areas where there is a legit cliff
I’ll also use nomenclature like 1a and 1b to denote when there are mini-tier breaks
Let’s do it.
Tier 1a
1. Josh Allen
Tier 1b
2. Jalen Hurts
3. Lamar Jackson
4. Patrick Mahomes
5. C.J. Stroud
I gave my case for Josh Allen as the clear QB1 in his team writeup, and why Jalen Hurts is a touch lower for me in his. In fact, that’s sort of the case with a lot my QB commentary, as the team-centric stuff in many ways drives my QB expectations, or vice versa.
Lamar Jackson could fairly easily flip Hurts, for me, if you’re a Ravens fan or just want Lamar. The upside if Baltimore does hit a higher pass rate is obvious. C.J. Stroud could fairly easily flip Patrick Mahomes, as well. Mahomes’ pass rate is more certain to be very aggressive, and I’m projecting a step forward from Stroud, both in terms of his team’s pass rate and in terms of his own production.
I understand that’s a major stance relative to most analysts; you will find far more analysts arguing that at his cost, Stroud’s lack of mobility makes him a really tough bet. They’ll cite Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert and so many of these young pocket-passing QBs that failed to back up their first plus season in the next year.
That’s all very valid analysis; I’m not disparaging those analysts. I’m being clear with my ranking: I am ranking Stroud where I am because I’m saying in a lot of the outcomes for the 2024 season, he proves to simply be a better QB than Burrow and Herbert, both of whom I think are great. It will not shock me even a small amount if C.J. Stroud is viewed as a clear-cut top-two QB at the end of the season (meaning better than everyone but Mahomes, because he just can’t be better than Mahomes in two seasons, that would be dumb). When I say “it will not shock me,” what I mean is if I had to wager on who will be viewed as the second-best QB in the NFL at the end of the 2024 season, my favorite for that distinction would be Stroud, and fairly easily. Within that context, which essentially says he’s coming off a top-three finish in MVP voting at minimum, the fact that I still have three mobile QBs ranked ahead of Stroud should help you understand I do very much believe in the value of QB mobility.
You don’t have to follow me in a ranking that essentially decides after one year of football that C.J. Stroud is destined for the Hall of Fame. That very obviously could be wrong, but it’s where I land.