Rankings, tiers updates ahead of big draft weekend

Detailing all the changes since my Targets & Fades pieces

I’ve mentioned several times I continuously update my rankings as I’m drafting basically every day right now, including Main Event fast drafts in seven of the past 10 days, with four more scheduled in the next week. One of the big things I’m responding to is what I’m seeing in these high stakes drafts, as drafters react in real time to the flood of camp news and preseason information we’re getting every day that continues to provide clarity on uncertain situations constantly.

There are a few points I want to make about this that should help you apply these rankings to your own leagues. The first is that I consider the activity of drafters in these higher stakes formats to be among the sharpest intel you can find. I think I’ve said before, but if not then I will here, that one of the things you can do to gain an edge in a home league is just look at high stakes ADP and recognize the profiles these drafters are prioritizing.

One thing you’ll see is young and buzzy players going even higher in high stakes than you’re hearing discussed at most major outlets who have much wider ranges of consumers to consider. In high stakes formats, there’s no worry about misinterpretation that is part of the job when you’re offering fantasy advice to literally millions of players (and I will be the first to state how hard that balance is to strike, having had that experience at CBS). In high stakes, drafters give advice with their decisions, drafting aggressively to get in front of other aggressive drafters they have respect for and are drafting against in several other leagues. They know if they want a guy, they have to go out and get him. When I was first coming up, I used to think people relied too much on high stakes ADP, feeling that just putting up a bunch of money didn’t necessarily mean every individual in those leagues knew what they were doing.

That’s definitely true! But only to an extent. In almost every high stakes draft, you have incredibly sharp high-volume drafters who find themselves in many leagues, and they know how to get good prices. There are quirks where guys sometimes go way higher than they should, but ADP is an average, obviously, and when you see the real effects of guys being pushed up across hundreds of drafts, there’s almost always a strong reason for it. And when guys are really falling in some leagues, that also definitely tells you something about the fragility of that profile, and that the player’s ADP is likely held up not by everyone being in but just a certain subset of players — it only takes one person in any draft to take a guy, but it takes all 12 to have him fall multiple rounds.

So the thing I’ve learned since that first opinion I had is that the players that looked out of place in high stakes ADP to my eye were more of a problem with me, and how I was viewing those players, not a problem with the way those leagues are played.

But there are major implications about that, especially as my ranks tend to reflect those formats simply because that’s where I’m seeing these guys go. You always want the best price. If you are in a home league where my ranks are incredibly higher on a player than your website’s default, consider whether I’ve identified that player as a Target or a Fade. If I’m higher but still have him as a fade, I have him ranked in a range where I’m seeing him go higher in Main Events, but I still don’t love him. My advice would be to wait on him and try to get him around the default ranking on the site you’re using, or a bit before.

If I’m higher but have a guy as a target, it’s a bit trickier. I still wouldn’t want to see you guys taking those guys multiple rounds higher than you have to; you’re trying to build dominant rosters here. If there are a couple targets at a position in the same tier, that is doubly true, where you have multiple paths to getting one of them at a discount to my rankings.

But this doesn’t mean take a player from a lower tier while waiting on the one from the higher tier. Opportunity cost always matters, and you shouldn’t wait on good players just to take bad ones. If you have a few guys at a position you can wait on but structurally think you need to go to that position, don’t take a bad pick at that position; shift to another position where you can get a target. Drafts will give you certain things, and home leagues drafts especially might give you the chance to detour more than usual and still get the requisite WR depth.

The key point is to make sure to consider the intersection of the price you think you can get in your specific league, whether I’ve indicated that player is a Target or Fade (or neither), and where you are at structurally and what you might want to do in the next couple of rounds. Sometimes it makes sense to take a guy a round or two before you think you could get him because you have other targets you’ll need to take in the next couple picks — usually at another position, i.e. you know you’re taking a Target WR and then moving away from the WR position for the next couple rounds, and you have multiple options at the other positions you’d move to, so you are fine getting that Target WR and then letting the draft fall to you for your pick at those other spots.

I’ve also gotten a ton of questions about overall rankings. That’s pretty format-dependent, specifically with respect to QB in Superflex and how much I might favor RBs in Standard.

Alright let’s talk through some changes. My Targets and Fades pieces have all come out just in the past week, but there has already been movement, including some changes in the tiers! I want to emphasize I’d rather you were looking at the updated rankings (which I’ll link at bottom) than those emails.

One last thing is I’ll mention below that some people made good cases that changed my mind in certain situations. It’s important to recognize uncertainty and be willing to change your mind. But for anyone concerned I’m not standing by my takes firmly enough, know that there are many other conversations I’ve had that I have not found convincing. I consider my willingness to change my opinion but also ability to ascertain what arguments are good arguments to be a strength.

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Quarterback

• No changes, but I want to emphasize that in 6-point per passing TD leagues, I’d move Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow up a tier, and Tom Brady would become more appealing to me within the tier he’s in. Aaron Rodgers also becomes more appealing to me a bit later, and there might be a tier break before Justin Fields, who I don’t like as much in that format.

Running back

• There is always the most movement at RB, which again is why it’s a position to be careful of because it’s so volume-dependent.

• I moved Javonte Williams into the end of Tier 2 on the back of some RB research I’ve been doing that I mentioned in the Tiers and Fades piece. I am working to get that out to you guys as soon as possible.

• As part of the decision to move Williams into a higher tier, I combined Tiers 3a and 3b from the Targets and Fades piece. I would classify myself as not that excited to take this new, larger Tier 3a in the second round or even early third in PPR leagues. These are the players I have trouble with in the early rounds; Javonte is not one of those. As part of this, I also named Leonard Fournette and Aaron Jones as fades. I want to also note that I have Najee Harris as a Fade relative to market sentiment, but I’d still take him where I have him ranked, ahead of the older backs. In other words, I now think there is arguably a “big tier break” after Tier 2. I am OK with the guys in the back end of this larger tier, namely Travis Etienne, James Conner, and Breece Hall, once my Mike Williams to Michael Pittman wide receiver tier is gone.

• Tier 4a, aka the Dead Zone and immediate aftermath. I shuffled this a bunch, moving Rachaad White in as a priority handcuff who is getting more expensive in higher-stakes stuff. I removed Antonio Gibson’s Fade tag, because I do think he makes sense at a certain price, but note that you’re not going to get that price in home leagues. I moved Cordarrelle Patterson down because he was often available where I had him and I wasn’t taking him, but man, I do think he makes sense at a point, too. The players I have listed as fades at the back end like Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs will sometimes still be on the board toward the back end of this tier in high stakes stuff, but I don’t typically want them even at those prices. We basically need to be past the WR big tier break for me to consider guys I consider fades in this tier.