Rankings, tiers updates, look at current ADP
Talking through recent risers and fallers before draft weekend
Right off the bat, let me just say I’m headed to a wedding today where I’ll be staying overnight a few hours from home, and having a chance to get away with my wife and without the kids for the first time in quite a while, so I won’t be watching the preseason games today, and any major injuries or other significant rankings shifts I might need to consider in real time today, I just won’t be doing that.
That said, I really appreciate all your guys’ positive feedback from the content this week, and I know you guys overwhelmingly would tell me to go enjoy the wedding and I’ve earned that. But before I dip out for the next 24 hours or so — a key 24 hours, so I did want to be clear that I’ll be late to changes this weekend and into next week — I did go ahead and update my entire tiered rankings this morning, after getting the positional Targets and Fades lists out, and in some cases there have already been some changes. I’ll drop a link to the rankings again down below, but some of those changes include:
Dropping Deshaun Watson a tier on reports he’s having a real tough camp, and then honestly on seeing that someone who tweeted about him but didn’t tag him immediately got blocked by Watson himself, which honestly that shouldn’t matter but it kinda does matter to me that this dude trying to come back from such a public response to his obvious misdeeds is searching his name on Twitter during August. Like it’s legit a thing that the upside case for him includes extremely thick skin in an almost psychopathic way; if he’s showing signs of getting rattled already, I’m not loving the way he’s going to stay composed when he goes on the road and NFL fans in other cities are trying to get under his skin on the sidelines. That’s all side stuff to his actual skill, but I legitimately think it shouldn’t be ignored in a cold, unemotional analysis.
I made Geno Smith now a target. Not sure why I hadn’t yet, because I’ve been taking him in those middle rounds, and especially now that we’re into redraft season and he goes in a range where he can really slide two or three rounds past ADP, because at QB14 in ADP, he doesn’t go in the top 12 every time so you see the drafts where there’s a lull before people dip into their QB2s, and it can push him at guys in his range down in a way that doesn’t happen in best ball. When he gets pushed down, I really like grabbing him as my later-round QB1, and then maybe pairing him with a Sam Howell who provides a really intriguing high-volatility upside profile late.
I also removed the Fade note on Kyler Murray and moved him up a tier, and did the same with Derek Carr. On Kyler, I’m hearing some positive stuff on his health, and while he’s still really tricky in two-QB, I get taking him as an upside QB2 in single-QB. Ultimately, I think QB ADP is pretty efficient these days, and so I don’t really find the need to be denoting guys as Fades.
I’ve been messing around with my RB tiers through the Dead Zone, trying to get a grip on how I would approach those in drafts. I’m not sure when I’ll feel 100% confident in how I’ve ranked that range, but it’s not today. I wrote in today’s WR Tiers piece how sometimes the “Big Tier Breaks” include a handful of transition players that it’s not clear whether they go before or after the BTB, but there is definitely a BTB between the guys just ahead of that handful and the ones after, so the BTB needs to be put in that range somewhere. I’ve had a similar issue with my second BTB at the RB position, as it relates to the RB Dead Zone backs I’m strongly targeting, the ones I’m not really targeting as heavily, and then some of the pure value plays like David Montgomery, and how they all intersect price-wise. I still have Montgomery as a target, and even though he’s behind the BTB, I could see taking him over a couple RBs that are before it, like a D’Andre Swift for example. Latest ADP does have Montgomery going a touch higher, which is why I clarify these points here. (I’m still above ADP on Montgomery, which is why I haven’t felt the need to push him even higher.)
I’ve also rearranged the RBs in the tier I keep referring to as the Rashaad Penny tier, which is a real Target range for Zero RB candidates in that Round 9-12 area of drafts. I’ll probably keep toying with that right up until Week 1, but it’s been set today where I like it for now.
I dropped Pat Freiermuth down a tier on some great research by Pat Kerrane, which I wrote about in the TE Targets and Fades column.
I changed Mike Williams and Christian Kirk from Fades to just normally ranked players after some good feedback that included me recognizing I don’t even have them ranked much lower than where they go on some sites. The deal with both of them is a concern about ceiling, but I also like both offenses and want pieces of those offenses, so I’m not fading these guys at good prices, and they ultimately fall more in my ranks than I would probably want them to just as a result of me wanting to get other guys above them that I would definitely take ahead of ADP, like Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That has to push someone down.
That’s everything that immediately comes to mind. Hope you guys that are drafting this weekend absolutely crush it! Below are links to the updated tiered rankings, as well as a document I created today that pulls in ADP from Underdog, FFPC, and NFFC all just for drafts in the past 3-4 days, which I used to cross reference my ranks at each position and get things aligned. I thought sharing that document might be helpful for those of you wanting a decent blended ADP source (I won’t keep this up to date, but again it’s a good source for today, 8/19, with a look at drafts in the 8/16-8/19 window).