Some answers from my Reddit AMA
Had some fleshed-out takes that felt worthwhile to share
Earlier this week, the Ship Chasing crew did a Reddit AMA that was ostensibly centered on best ball, but ventured into some player takes and strategy ideas. There were a few good questions that really got me chewing on fun concepts, and given that I also have a newsletter where you guys read this kind of stuff from me, I figured it was worth cross-posting as this would be a group that would obviously be most likely to want to read those thoughts.
Everything block-quoted with the blue stripe on the left side below are my answers. Here were some of my favorites:
Love all your podcasts but wondering how does your approach change for home leagues, and what is your priority there? In Yahoo right now, you can get really good players like Nabers, Worthy, Brooks, Rice, Warren, etc. pretty late. You guys never take elite QBs early on the podcast streams, but would you prioritize Allen/Hurts/Lamar more in home leagues knowing you can get really good players like this in the later rounds? Also, do you guys actually play in home leagues, and, if so, do you always win? Thanks!
Do still play in home leagues, and no I don't always win. There's always a good helping of luck in fantasy! I do typically do well overall in those leagues, yeah.
The short answer to your elite QB question is yes. I tend to prioritize what we sometimes call "detours" in these formats. Detours are luxury picks to an optimal strategy. High-end elite talent is always great to have at all positions, and if you can still build depth through great values late, you might be more willing to target a high-end QB or definitely make elite TE a priority (I'd prefer this route). I'm also far more likely to go RB in Round 1, because I don't want to be taking them in the "Dead Zone" in the Round 4-7 range.
Will have a post on my Substack about how specifically to play home leagues in 2024 like this one from 2023 that panned out really nicely for subs.
[One thing I'll note is that idea of WR-WR start was dependent on the specific RBs available in the Dead Zone last year, but you can see in some of my other replies here that I'm out on the RB Dead Zone this year (which in turn makes the first couple of rounds a different equation).
Excited to get around to writing up a similar piece this year in a couple weeks!]
The way we have seen drafts shift significantly to WRs earlier and earlier in drafts, how has this changed your approach to drafting running backs in 2024, if at all?
We are seeing RBs that would usually be considered RD1 picks such as Barkley and possibly Henry, Kyren, or Etienne given their usage in the past likely be RD1 options now into RD2+.
Any profit or takeaways to be seen here? Any particular fades or values at the RB position?
Thanks. Great content as always.
This is a really huge point for the 2024 season. For more info beyond my reply here, I'd point to a few recent podcast eps I did at Stealing Bananas (link in OP) where we talked through this specific concept.
But my read on it is this: We're in a unique time in a multi-year sense at the RB position. Recent draft classes haven't been particularly strong, with a flurry of busts and injury issues for RBs taken in the first two days in the stretch of drafts between about 2019 and 2022 (i.e. the RBs who should be in their primes and atop the position here in 2024). I believe the high-end RB profiles available this year are just weaker, with really three true superstars, then Gibbs as a transitional option, and then there are a few I still like (Taylor, Achane, Kyren) but it does really start to get dicey. You mentioned Barkley, but he hasn't looked great in the peripherals like missed tackles forced or yards after contact for a few years.
Etienne's another unique option you mentioned, and he's probably undervalued relative to his profile. He's a real unique case.
But as you get into the RB Dead Zone, I'd argue the profiles are fairly typical Dead Zone "avoid" profiles for the most part. Last year wasn't the same, and I was advocating hitting RBs in the Dead Zone. But I think the successes there last year (Breece, Gibbs, Etienne) have moved us right back to a new Dead Zone for 2024, where drafters are forgetting the lessons from the several years prior.
The other major element to all of this is what can you replace later in drafts? It's really hard to relace elite WR production; we tend to know who the great WRs are. But with RBs cheaper all the way down, you can draft cheap options that used to cost a lot more, where they appear to have strong projected roles. This is the type of back that used to be in the Dead Zone, but is now hanging out in Round 8+ in best ball drafts. One of the trends I feel most confident will be part of the 2024 winning equation is late RB points, because there are so many backfields priced so down that the odds we don't get meaningful production late at that position are low. Backfields we expect to have "large pies" of RB scoring like DEN, CLE, LAC, DAL have no options going high.
Ultimately, all that drives me toward prioritizing the early WR depth, elite TEs as a major point of emphasis, and perhaps even QBs where applicable (less so in best ball for me, with the elite ones), and then building most of my RB rooms in later rounds, because one of the advantages of that is more shots at finding the late-round production when you're just drafting a bunch late.
How much does half ppr cause you to shift from a WR-centric approach to grabbing early RBs or even dead zone RBs?
Honestly, not nearly as much as I think people think. The question still becomes where can you get points from at each position? This is the massive note I would drive home for anyone still worried about the rising prices of WRs. Can you replace WR upside late? Go read through the top 10 fantasy WRs every year and compare to ADP. Note that Puka was a decade-ish outlier. You don't get elite upside at WR without paying up, otherwise.
At RB, you can get production late. Importantly, low-end top-10 RB production is typically very replaceable via multiple names, because of how RB usage peaks in individual games with spot starts, etc. Typically, the RB8 or RB10 is just a guy who stayed healthy and got work all 17 games, but wasn't very efficient (*cough* Rachaad White *cough*). That profile is replaceable with a blend of later-round RBs if you get some floor and then some spike weeks from a spot start guy.
Could go on about this topic for days, but the point is the scoring has less of an effect for me than understanding how I can build the most dynamic roster through the different parts of the draft. It just comes together better when you're willing to push RB — it creates a better floor early through the WR stability, and the absolute most upside if you hit on the late RB points, because that's the cleanest way to build a dominant roster where you're getting production from all areas of the draft. Basically the only counter I see isn't a strategy at all, it's just nailing all your player takes (which is difficult, but I do understand deviating from structure when you really want a specific guy, or really love the value opportunity in a specific area of drafts).
Please break down how Nabers will pay off the 2/3 round price on underdog. Isn’t that a little too rich for a player in such a negative fantasy situation? His over under on yards is 850 on sportsbooks. To justify that early of a pick he’d have to be 1000+ yard WR. I understand he has all the talent in the world but as we’ve seen with Drake London/Garret Wilson your environment really matters. thanks in advance!
Wilson and London had Zach Wilson and Arthur Smith. There's bad situations, and then that's the next circle of hell.
I realize people are really out on the Giants, but Daboll and Daniel Jones worked decently well in 2022. The real key is if Nabers is what his prospect profile suggests he could, he elevates. He elevates the scheme, he elevates the QB by consistently winning and adding YAC, and he elevates the other receivers like a Wan'Dale Robinson who I still have a candle on for, because suddenly Wan'Dale has the space he needs to operate underneath.
Rookie over/unders are always going to skew low, because playing time isn't locked in, and they are 50th percentile bets. But the ceiling 10th percentile is a smash, in an asymmetrical way. We're not betting on the median. Also, tons of data shows rookies produce more in a back-weighted way, later in the season. Even if Nabers only goes for 900, if 300 of that comes from Weeks 15-17, that's going to factor into the equation with the way Underdog contests are structured.
He's the type of profile that looks like a poor bet at cost based on a straight line projection, but often that is exactly what you should be targeting in fantasy, because what you're seeing is real-time Wisdom of the Crowds where the market is identifying the "unprojectable" upside. We know unprojectable breakouts happen. If Puka Nacua was going in even the 10th round last year, he would have felt like an overpay there. But I use this term "small miss, big hit" a lot where a guy who projects as not really being able to reach his ADP might wind up a small miss, but it's often a symbol that there's a big hit element there that's worth pursuing. De'Von Achane also comes to mind as this archetype this year, where if you do a projection you're not giving him enough volume to justify his lofty ADP probably (that's how my projections came out), but that's actually a positive marker in that the market's valuation is telling you something the numbers aren't. Huge, huge concept to grasp.
Other than stacking - what’s the biggest piece of strategy advice you’d give a seasoned redraft player looking to jump into best ball?
Player archetypes are different in best ball. In redraft, you really do chase upside at all costs, because you're looking for key pieces that are foundational to your team, and you recognize your roster is going to change a ton from draft day through Week 17 via the waiver wire or trades for leagues that have them. I don't mind misses because I anticipate cuts and adds and churning all year.
In best ball, I'm far more likely to buy into boring players in later rounds at good costs, where I think they can just give my positional builds some usable weeks to provide stability. I still want to be making upside swings, but when you miss on a rookie like a Quentin Johnston or a Skyy Moore, you get basically all zeroes every week. Even that miss doesn't kill your roster, either; you don't have to draft 18 perfect picks. But I don't want to be all in on upside such that I'm compounding too much risk, or at least that's the biggest takeaway I've had in strategic differences.
TL;DR I've taken way too much Demarcus Robinson.
My question is Chase Brown. I’ll hang up and listen
Fastest ballcarrier time in the NFL last year which has everyone thinking he's just a scat back, but had a dozen collegiate games in the Big 10 with over 25 touches and 120 total yards. Guy is both explosive and has workhorse credentials. Is on an elite offense with Zack Moss ahead of him and people worried Samaje Perine is going to land in his lap. Yes, I'm making that face you are imagining me making.
How would you guys approach the RB dead zone in a smaller 10T redraft league? Obviously RBs tend to go earlier relative to receiver in redraft, but you can only slam receiver so many times before your starting slots are filled up. Feels especially tough this year as it feels like the rb dead zone starts pretty early after the first couple rounds
In a 10 team league, especially a home league where WR values might stick around, I feel less pressure to get adequate WR depth early, and am thus more willing to take "detours" away from that goal. Then the question becomes when to do that, and as you say, you still don't want to be drafting RBs in the dead zone. So my answer is typically to be more likely to take a swing on a Round 1 RB with legendary upside — I'd love to get CMC, Bijan, or Breece in this format. I might even start RB-RB in this format with like an Achane, knowing I'll still get like a Waddle/Deebo/Aiyuk type in Round 3 as my WR1. I'm also definitely going elite TE in this format, and am more likely to sprinkle in an early QB, because even if I take two early RBs, plus a TE and QB in the single digit rounds, I'll still likely be able to get strong WR value in Rounds 10 and 11 that get me to 6 or 7. Like, Xavier Worthy is prob an 11th rounder in this setting. Other upside rookies like Odunze and BTJ almost certainly are.
10 team PPR I have 2nd overall. Any strategies for the first 3 rounds?
I can’t seem to pick a combo I like.
It's definitely tricky, but in a 10-teamer, I'm less concerned about WR depth, and I think I'd actually go Bijan Robinson in the first (or Breece if he's your preferred, or definitely CMC if he doesn't go 1.01), and then hit two WRs at the 2/3 turn, which should be two really strong picks to start your WR build. Then at 4/5 I might consider an elite TE or elite QB, plus probably at least one more WR, which I would expect to be surprisingly strong as well (perhaps like a Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Tee Higgins makes it there).
I don't want to be taking a lot of RBs in those pockets, so starting with a legit potential superstar RB at 1.02 sets up the next rounds really well. I might even add another RB at the 2/3 turn if someone like De'Von Achane is there, in which case I'm probably going WR-WR at 4/5, and then trying to get like Kyle Pitts at the 6/7 turn, with my fourth WR.
Until next time!
and here I was, copy-pasting your comments into a doc like an animal 🙌
Is your answer to the half point PPR question the same for standard/zero PPR? And what if you can't get one of the top three backs. For example, picking 7, am I rational to draft Kyren and Achane in the first two rounds, both above ESPN ADP. Hopefully they get me through the early part of the year, and then in the late rounds of the draft and waivers I load up on young backs who might get a large role at the back end of the season. However painful a standard league is, it is the oldest home league for me.