Stealing Signals, 53-man cutdown edition
The market's not going to adjust enough in a lot of spots
Before we get into a team-by-team breakdown, I have to share something I think is cool, sent to me by a Stealing Signals sub named Christopher, who printed out all the Signals posts since June — and clarified it was double-sided — and three-hole punched them into a binder complete with tabs.
You guys know I’m old school from how my ranks are in a Google Doc, and I know that drives some of you a little crazy, but it just makes things fit better in my brain honestly. Anyway, this may be a lot of paper, and some may think it a waste, but I get it. And seeing all I’ve written laid out like this — and there being something to be said about creating something tangible — I just genuinely thought this was awesome.
I don’t think word count is the hallmark of a good writer, and there’s no doubt I ramble, but I do strive to cover a very wide range of topics, and I’ve tried to hit 2023 fantasy football from enough directions to adequately find the intersection of uncertainty and probabilistic thinking. So while I might have a tendency to look back on things I’ve done with a touch of embarrassment — perhaps defined as a perfectionist’s self-judgment, with a dash of imposter syndrome — I look at that binder and feel a very clean sense of pride, confident through the long, windy sentences (like this one), there’s a lot of strong work in there. And while it can sometimes be a lonely experience to write as much as I do, little reminders like this that people are reading so much of what I’m writing, and maybe even find it valuable enough to print it all out and categorize it with tabs for later reference, is just so cool.
That clean sense of pride I mentioned, it’s rare for me, as an obsessively and overly analytical person. But I get to feel it through my vocation pretty often, because of the responses and reactions from you guys, and I just want you all to know I feel very fortunate for that. And that feeling, by the way, is in part because of a slightly different sense of pride I’m frequently struck with, which is about the types of people who follow my work, because so many of the things you guys articulate to me are so much more profound than anything I can write, and anyway it’s super cool to have an audience of people you respect, who then tell you they respect your work.
None of what I write about is rocket science, or even very important, other than — as my Stealing Bananas co-host Shawn Siegele has said — the idea that anything we choose to spend time on is important. But it’s complicated, in its own way, sufficiently so that I don’t look at that binder and think it’s all that absurd to have written that much about it. And another really cool thing I’ve heard several times now is that some of you have applied concepts I’ve written about to your own careers or personal lives, and so that’s pretty neat, too. Anyway, you guys continue to lift the spirits of this crusty old curmudgeon, and I just want to thank all of you, with Christopher as the highlighted party today, for that all-important sense of fulfillment, something I probably don’t deserve to feel about a career as silly as mine, and yet something I’m very grateful — to you all — to get to.
Let’s jump into it. Think of this post like the start of an in-season watch list, probably for deeper leagues. If you’re just a casual player with mostly shallower leagues and can’t keep up with all the reading, this is probably not a post I’d call required reading.
We’ve been making assumptions all offseason about a variety of things, and the market is not necessarily going to have time to adjust to everything we’ve taken in over the past 48 hours, which confirms or refutes specific parts of the ranges of outcomes for various players.
It would make a lot of sense to do the Signal and Noise thing in this post, but this is one of those situations where I want to just let the fingers fly and write up a bunch of quick notes, and summarizing it will slow me down. But in a couple key spots I’ll emphasize them like that.
I’m going to weirdly break this into four divisionally directional sections, because it’s my party and I’ll cry if I want to (and also because the awesome depth charts at OurLads are arranged divisionally).
Also, if I misstate something — or get something wrong entirely — please correct me! It’s often the case that the teams and situations you’re following closely, you’ll know more about the nuance than me. I mean I spend pretty much all day tracking this stuff, but 32 rosters is a lot to have it all perfect across the league.
AFC and NFC East
Buffalo Bills
Deonte Harty has an intriguing long-term profile and might be the Bills’ No. 3 WR to start the year. There’s a question of what that will mean with the expectation of two-TE sets and Dalton Kincaid running out of the slot a decent amount, and we’re going to see formational fluidity from Buffalo for sure. But Harty is a deeper league watch list WR for sure.
Damien Harris and Latavius Murray both made the team as the only backs other than James Cook, so we’ll see how that all shakes out starting in Week 1. Ty Johnson on the practice squad is great for Cook’s routes upside. My prediction for the other guys: Harris and Murray both play in Week 1, in part due to Harris’ preseason injury limitations, but things consolidate on Cook and Harris by like Week 4.
Dallas Cowboys
Yeah, I’m gonna do both divisions together all confusing like this. The Cowboys cut RB Malik Davis and go into the year with Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn as the backup RBs. Dowdle is likely the handcuff (and potential short-yardage vulture) while Vaughn is your change-of-pace or something. Ronald Jones is suspended two games and had August injury issues, but could theoretically still factor in.
The market already seems to have bought into Jake Ferguson, so not much to note on the passing game.
Miami Dolphins
Jeff Wilson hit IR today, and apparently Salvon Ahmed has an injury issue along with the known one for De’Von Achane, so beats are reporting — seemingly out of the blue — that Miami will go into Week 1 with Raheem Mostert and 2023 UDFA Chris Brooks as their main two healthy backs (Achane and Ahmed should be expected to at least mix in, as well). Mostert might see a ton of work early, and it’s still just so crazy to me that Indianapolis went the PUP route with Jonathan Taylor; now, by the time Taylor is back, so too will be Wilson, but in another world where JT wasn’t assured to miss four games, it’s possible after about Week 2 that Miami could have gotten a little desperate for RB help.
One of my notes for this column included this No. 3 pass-catching role for Miami that I do think will have value. Robbie Chosen was part of that discussion, but was released. Braxton Berrios might start the season as the slot guy, while Cedrick Wilson took a pay cut/restructuring to stick around. But really, Durham Smythe is the blocking TE who played a lot in the preseason and could be interesting if that blocking role leads to enough playing time for routes, particularly in the red zone. Another way to read into this — and also the RB stuff — is this offense has a shot to be even more concentrated on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
New England Patriots
We almost don’t care about this passing game, and also the Patriots are one of the quirkiest teams in how they’ll do stuff with the 53-man such that we shouldn’t read too much into anything. Like, I could note they only kept two RBs — Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott — and two TEs — Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki — but they also only kept one QB, so does that definitively mean they won’t have a third RB or TE active at some point early in the season? Of course not. For the RBs, both Ty Montgomery and Kevin Harris moved to the practice squad.
I would say I’m happy for my Stevenson and Henry shares to see this stuff. On the flip side, I think the WR group is tough after both hyped 2023 sixth-round picks made the team in Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte. Tyquan Thornton hit IR, so DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, and JuJu Smith-Schuster in the slot will likely be the early-season three-WR package, but Douglas and Boutte would presumably both have paths to stealing some routes over time. But certainly the Patriots are more concentrated than I think most expected.
New York Giants
Wan’Dale Robinson getting activated and looking like he’ll potentially play Week 1 is pretty big news. Also, the Giants are down to just six WRs, with Cole Beasley and Jamison Crowder among those cut (although Beasley is back on the practice squad). Sterling Shepard did make the team, as well as Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell, and Jalin Hyatt. Wan’Dale is presumably behind Campbell to start the year, but if healthy, he’s one of the best upside plays here.
The Giants kept four RBs, with both Gary Brightwell and rookie Eric Gray making it through alongside Matt Breida, making this a situation that’s tough to handcuff.
Signal: Wan’Dale Robinson — activated before Week 1 is a bullish sign for his timeline to ramp up to potentially full snaps
New York Jets
Randall Cobb might be the starting slot WR, per reports, and with Corey Davis retiring and Denzel Mims traded a while back, it’s worth pointing out how thin Garrett Wilson’s competition will be. It’s literally just Allen Lazard, Cobb, and a version of Mecole Hardman that couldn’t beat out Cobb. They also kept two 2023 UDFA WRs and another UDFA from 2022, and I’m not even sure I’ve heard of any of these three guys. It’s difficult to post a 30% target share, but Wilson is a pretty good bet to be someone who does that.
One way he might not is if Breece Hall is a huge piece of the passing game, which some signs are pointing to. Hall also might be more ready for Week 1 than Dalvin Cook, who showed up late to camp and is reportedly not really in game shape yet. The Week 1 usage here could surprise, and I am getting increasingly excited to have Hall on as many teams as possible.
Signal: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall — competition not really materializing in the ways it appeared it might (arrows pointing skyward on both of these two as a result)
Philadelphia Eagles
After trading for Albert Okwuegbunam, we have a team here with four TEs, four RBs, and currently only four WRs. They do have four more WRs on their practice squad, including Greg Ward who has been around Philly for awhile now. We don’t really know anything about the RB rotation still, and the Albert O. thing is fun and interesting but he’s not going to be up to speed in time to threaten Dallas Goedert.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders cleared out all other RBs, and their top two guys remain good options, but Chris Rodriguez finished the preseason having gone 5-39, 5-31, and 7-52 across his three games, which totaled a 17-122 rushing line for 7.2 yards per carry. As the only other back on the roster where injuries to either of the guys ahead of him probably opens immediate opportunity in a situation that looks RB-friendly, I think he should be rostered in deeper leagues.
Washington kept seven WRs and four TEs, so there’s a lot of depth in the passing game. Will be interesting to see what that means and how it materializes
Signal: Chris Rodriguez — really efficient preseason rushing the ball, RB3 in a three-back situation where he might be a double handcuff to the two main guys