Stealing Signals, Preseason Week 2
Firing off takes on every game
No guarantees you’ll ever see this again, not necessarily in Preseason Week 3 or next offseason, but I made a point to watch every Preseason Week 2 game and I have a lot of thoughts. We’re getting a ton of reaction to preseason usage notes, and I think there are absolutely spots we should be reacting, but I’m not sure everyone is doing it right.
One thing that’s absolutely true is we shouldn’t just be talent-agnostic and trying to figure out role; so much of antifragile drafting is about thinking through various possibilities for how a season can evolve, not what to expect in September. Our responses to the preseason, then, should be relative to our priors — we should be updating past opinions with the new information, not acting like every player who looks like they might get some early-season run suddenly matters.
The other thing I want to emphasize is it seems a ton of teams are very aware that a 17-game regular season makes life much harder. While we’re getting some fun notes, many teams are resting a ton of starters. The fantasy industry is reacting and emphasizing stuff it is seeing, but there are tons of situations where we’re getting no intel, and that certainly shouldn’t be taken as a bad thing. Some guys that basically didn’t play in preseason and have been almost not discussed are going to have monster seasons, and that shouldn’t be forgotten.
So this is going to be something of a hot take column where I fire from the hip and update priors, while also mentioning some thoughts that have evolved about certain situations now that I’ve gotten a very brief look. As always, I’ve updated rankings as I’ve gone through this, and you can always find the rankings link at the bottom of this post, behind the paywall.
I’m going to just write out my confirmation bias on the stuff I am seeing, highlighting anything I think is Signal and Noise. Let’s have fun.
Seahawks-Bears
There wasn’t a ton here for me. Drew Lock missed due to COVID, so we got more Geno Smith, and he looked fine, I guess. Travis Homer started, and seems like the clear third-down back. He’s a fine PPR option for deeper leagues.
I mentioned this in the TE piece, but I liked seeing Cole Kmet get three targets on the first drive, the only one Justin Fields played. Fields has looked good this preseason, definitely more comfortable than last year, as expected. There are still obvious concerns about the roster.
Panthers-Patriots
Liked seeing Jakobi Meyers get a play-action target in a two-wide, two-TE set, as an outside WR. The Patriots lost rookie Tyquan Thornton for two months and Kendrick Bourne is getting bad press lately, so maybe Meyers won’t be just a slot guy this year and will be relied on more heavily alongside DeVante Parker.
Damien Harris might be a solid Zero RB candidate in some settings given how far he falls behind Rhamondre Stevenson these days. Upside is weak but he’s a talented runner and goes super late sometimes. You can see in the rankings I’m not super in on Harris and have Stevenson a tier higher, so this note is relative to that.
D’Onta Foreman seems like the handcuff, but it’s at least a little unclear with Chuba Hubbard playing more on passing downs, it seemed. I don’t like taking pure handcuffs where I’m not real sure how the workload might split, and the offense isn’t even that good.
Signal: Jakobi Meyers — maybe not just a slot guy?
Packers-Saints
Romeo Doubs had a great play on the TD. He had a couple drops in Pre-Week 1, but saw seven targets. Looks like a hit, and he’s way up in my rankings, but if you’re in a home league, you can probably wait a bit more.
Not much on New Orleans, who started Ian Book. Chris Olave scored right before half despite the Saints leaning on the Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith and Deonte Harty (formerly Deonte Harris) types early. I’m pretty out on Olave and could very much be wrong there but I’m OK with that. There’s always uncertainty with rookies and you can’t be on all of them. If he hits big, that’s a miss I know I’m exposed to. Too often we retrofit why we were wrong so I want to write beforehand I know I could be wrong here but knowing his four-year and waning TPRR profile in college, and what this team has in terms of target competition, he’s not a guy I’m super on.
Signal: Romeo Doubs — continues to do good things and looks likely to get chances in the regular season
Texans-Rams
I moved Marlon Mack way down my rankings after Dameon Pierce’s fun Pre-Week 1, but Mack ran solidly here. He’s a North-South back who hits holes hard and now two years removed from his Achilles’ tear, he looked like the dude from before it that had 1,999 rushing yards and 17 rush TDs across 2018 and 2019, in only 26 games. Rex Burkhead still looks like the guy on third downs and a super cheap startable early-season PPR option in RB rooms loaded with upside but without clear early-season roles. Wrote this take in Discord, but I’m pretty out on Pierce at the rising cost. He never handled more than 106 carries in four college seasons, so expecting his workload to scale way up is tough because being a workhorse is something of a skill. He also looked incredibly shifty but I’m not sure how explosive, so you might have the David Montgomery thing of evading tackles but not doing a ton with it. But more directly, in a bad offense you need a workhorse, and he has competition and wasn’t a workhorse in the past. He’s a fine pick at a point but people read him getting this game off as a reason to push him further up.
Nico Collins looks as advertised, solid with the starters, not amazing or anything. Not pushing him up but he’s a mildly intriguing late-round option.
Rams rested basically everyone, and I don’t have much here. I’m probably less concerned about Matthew Stafford’s elbow than most, most notably for Cooper Kupp (and I’m kind of out on a lot more of this passing game), but it’s definitely something to keep in the back of your mind.
Noise: Dameon Pierce — vaguely intrigued, but won’t chase hype pushing up ADP on a fourth-round pick with nonelite tested athleticism that has competition for touches and wasn’t a college workhorse on the offense projected for the fewest points in the NFL by lookahead lines (by a solid margin)