Stealing Signals, Week 1, Part 2
The Signal and the Noise from late Sunday games, SNF, and MNF
Yesterday’s newsletter, which for most of you was this morning’s newsletter, was too long. I could blame so few teams that seem similar to last year, and how Week 1 is always the longest of the season because there’s so much to hit on, but sometimes I’m just not in top form. Yesterday was admittedly a bit of a slog. (Edited to add: this edition is no better, lol.)
But that’s where the recap at the end of Part 2 will be your friend when you’re busy. Every week, the end of this Part 2 version — after I get through the rest of the games — will include my biggest Signals and Noise, then a look at some key RB charts from Sam Hoppen with some short discussion on what they mean for specific players and teams, plus some WR data sections every few weeks when the sample sizes are right. That Part 2 recap each week is more or less the size of a normal fantasy article, maybe still a bit longer, but strives to give you a quick place to check my work without having to read through the whole deal.
I also had an intention of making Stealing Signals available for audio through some sort of automated reader, which may come as soon as next week. That’s been on the to-do list, but I didn’t make it enough of a focus and that’s on me. But it’s coming, and I know some of you had recs last year, and I’d really appreciate those if you still have them. Based on what I’ve seen, a lot of them charge by the word and these posts are so long that it seems like I’ll have to be pretty conscious of what that will mean. Another issue is just needing to get that to you in the initial email, and time is always a crunch with getting these out. But maybe it’s something I can add after the fact and those of you who prefer listening through can find it on the site. I don’t know, I gotta get it figured out, and I’m very open to thoughts on it this week if you have any.
One last point of clarification from Part 1 before we get to the rest of the games, and it concerns Cordarrelle Patterson. I got two questions about him, and it seems I didn’t qualify my priors very well before my comments on his rushing attempts. Readers from last year will remember I was very pro-Patterson relative to analysts who thought he was a flash in the pan given pretty inconclusive data. He’s a key part of their offense and how he is used doesn’t need to be predicted in a super exact way. My thoughts on him yesterday were relative to that position, and I was just saying that I do think there’s still a bit of a cap on his overall touches, given Week 1 was a whole new level of involvement. I called it “Noise” because I think the size of his rushing load was due to the unique circumstances, but Patterson looks like he’ll again be a smash for Zero RB drafters for as long as he can hold up. Don’t let me lead you the wrong way there; I assumed too much with my commentary on him.
Alright, let’s get to rest of the games and the recap. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, RotoGrinders, Add More Funds, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run.
Part 1 included a list of important terms to know for Stealing Signals, if you find yourself wondering what some of the acronyms below mean.
Chiefs 44, Cardinals 21
RB Snap Notes: Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 39%, Jerick McKinnon: 39%, Isiah Pacheco: 23%, James Conner: 72%, Eno Benjamin: 34%, Darrel Williams: 0% (active, no offensive snaps), Jonathan Ward: 0% (active, no offensive snaps)
WR Snap Notes: Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 73%, JuJu Smith-Schuster: 66%, Mecole Hardman: 56%, Skyy Moore: 19%, Marquise Brown: 95%, Greg Dortch: 91%, A.J. Green: 74%
TE Snap Notes: Zach Ertz: 60%, Trey McBride: 0% (inactive)
Key Stat: JuJu Smith-Schuster — 8 first-half targets (plus a ninth negated by penalty)
The Chiefs shredded the Cardinals, with Patrick Mahomes looking like he was in full control of a new set of weaponry that allows Kansas City to spread the ball around a little more and perhaps be more creative with their play-calling (although they are always pretty creative). The blowout scoreline led to some interesting notes that aren’t particularly easy to parse in Week 1, because you don’t know how a full “normal” game might have looked. But both teams had a lot of rushing work late for backups that didn’t do much early, for example. Kansas City was notably +10.2% in PROE, and look ready to throw just as much as ever even with the turnover in their pass-catching corps.
A lack of elite route rates are one thing to keep in mind in blowout scripts. Travis Kelce (9-8-121-1) dominated while running routes on 76% of dropbacks, which I’d probably expect to tick up in future weeks. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-4-44, 1-(-3) rushing) led the team with 81% routes, but didn’t earn targets particularly well, which was a concern for him coming in.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (8-6-79) had a nice day on 78% routes, but fumbled twice, losing one. Smith-Schuster mostly looked like a good version of himself, and Week 1 concerned me that he could be a guy that could make a big splash this year as someone who was not particularly in on him during drafts. He’s someone to consider adding to a trade offer this week, maybe not as a primary target. He got all eight of his targets in the first half while the Chiefs were building their lead, and even had a ninth on a play that was negated by a roughing the passer call. His aDOT for the day was a very solid 10.3, and his negated target was classified as “deep” in the play-by-play. The score was 23-7 at intermission and the Chiefs scored in five plays on their first drive of the second half, pushing it to 30-7, plus Smith-Schuster reportedly had some knee pain in August, so the lack of second-half production might have masked what could have been a double-digit target game with big numbers. This was a great initial impression though in terms of how his season could evolve.
Skyy Moore (1-1-30) only ran routes on 19% of dropbacks, while Mecole Hardman (6-3-16-1) was out there for 61%. Hardman had a near miss on a deep shot and caught a short touchdown later, and with this role he’s worth a stash. Moore handled most of the punt returns and one kickoff, and while his early usage was not promising, he’s not someone you cut. It could be a frustrating first month or so, but whether an injury or poor play opens up some opportunities, he’s pretty clearly someone whose role should expand throughout the season, and the 30-yard catch only scratches the surface of what he’s capable of.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (7-42, 3-3-32-2) got the start and rushed well early, then caught two touchdowns on well-designed plays. He looked good, though he ran routes on just 32% of dropbacks while Jerick McKinnon (4-22, 4-3-27) was up at a 42% route rate. Ten of Isiah Pacheco’s 12 carries came over the final two drives, in what was essentially garbage time, though he was also very effective. After gaining just two yards on his two carries in the second quarter, Pacheco went 10-60-1 on the ground in the fourth. My read after the first week is McKinnon looks like a solid value as the pass-catching back, Pacheco could work into more rushes earlier in games, and CEH looked solid but is probably a sell high off a big game considering the team’s heavy pass lean and potential three-way committee.
The strong rush efficiency across the board here likely means Ronald Jones will be inactive again next week, and while Jones is holdable in deeper leagues as a sort of handcuff, he’s also someone you can pretty easily cut to churn that roster spot for now. This outcome — him being inactive and the other backs rushing effectively — was the one that gave us the information that Jones is not likely to be a factor for some time, and probably not without injury.
Arizona struggled to keep pace with a Kansas City offense that scored touchdowns on their first three drives of both halves. They didn’t necessarily play terribly, but you can get run out of the gym a bit by just needing to punt a few times against a team that is scoring at will. The Cardinals had a 75-yard touchdown drive on their second opportunity with the ball, but punted on the other three of their first four, and then got some very quick work just before halftime that didn’t amount to anything. They were also slow with punts on both of their first two drives in the second half, and were buried by the point they put together two more touchdown drives late. I wouldn’t say I’m panicking, because this wasn’t a huge sample of drives or plays.
Greg Dortch (9-7-63) led the pass-catching group in targets, and he ran routes on 95% of dropbacks with Rondale Moore out. Dortch was an interesting prospect once upon a time that had some very impressive team-adjusted numbers in college, so it’s not necessarily a complete surprise to see him take advantage of the opportunity, nor would it be a huge surprise if he had a couple more big games before DeAndre Hopkins returns, should Moore continue to be banged up.
Marquise Brown (6-4-43-1) matched Dortch’s 95% route rate but was targeted a bit less frequently in his Arizona debut, while Zach Ertz (4-2-14-1) found the end zone on 61% routes but didn’t look like the guy that drafters taking him around TE10 were hoping to get. One good note on Ertz is Trey McBride was a healthy scratch, for some unexplainable reason. McBride was the first TE taken this year and is a good prospect, but Kliff Kingsbury didn’t understand the value he could get out of Rondale last year so maybe he just has a blind spot with rookies.
James Conner (10-26-1, 6-5-29) had a poor efficiency game, but showed the power of HVTs with his five catches and short touchdown plunge in the first half. He got both of the team’s RB green zone touches, which was expected, and ran routes on 61% of dropbacks, which is a fantastic combination for PPR scoring even when he’s not picking up big yardage.
Eno Benjamin (4-28, 4-3-33) mostly only played late, but he got in routes on 27% of dropbacks, and the bigger note was Darrel Williams and Jonathan Ward were both healthy but neither played a single offensive snap, even after Conner left for the day. Benjamin also looked good, so he couldn’t have done more to solidify himself as the No. 2, though his lack of a role until garbage time probably makes him more of a true handcuff than a guy whose Week 1 statline should convince you has standalone value. Jim Nantz at one point said Eno was “showing something,” which I always like to add when I’m hyping up guys you know I’m biased toward. Someone else saw it, too!
Signal: JuJu Smith-Schuster — 8 targets, all in the first half, strong 10.3 aDOT, and also had a ninth negated by penalty (blowout in the second half, nice trade target); Ronald Jones — inactive, and the other RBs rushed well, significantly limiting any short-term paths; Eno Benjamin — clear No. 2 as both Darrel Williams and Jonathan Ward were active but didn’t play offensive snaps, though Benjamin’s work was concentrated to garbage time so he’s more of a high-end handcuff than a standalone value guy for now; Greg Dortch — potential flyer option if Rondale Moore misses again as a guy who ran a ton of routes (95%) in a good passing game and has a strong production profile from his college days
Noise: Skyy Moore — 19% routes (limited role was understood as part of the potential outcomes, and it could be a slow first month, but his potential 2022 value was not limited to what he could do right away by a longshot; he’s more of a guy we need to see fail with playing time before moving on, because playing time can open up a lot of ways); Clyde Edwards-Helaire — strong Week 1 (looked great, but both touchdowns were designed plays, and he ran fewer routes than Jerick McKinnon while the team leaned heavily toward the pass; sell candidate)