Stealing Signals, Week 11, Part 1
TNF and the early games
I broke the intro off into its own post this week, so let’s jump into the games, which after that 5,000-word behemoth I’m going to actually try to do quickly. Of course, I always say that, and I never do, but I do think I need to actually keep trying given where we’re at in the season and how much less is actually changing on a weekly basis right now. We have a good idea of what these teams are.
As always, you can find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and you can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and NFL Pro. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Eagles 26, Commanders 18
Key Stat: Austin Ekeler — 8 HVTs (season high, tied second most in Week 11, through Sunday)
Thursday Night Football was a boring game, entering the fourth quarter at 10-6, with the Commanders leading but struggling all game, and the Eagles frankly really underwhelming to that point, but not really getting a lot out of their offense while posting a -12.5% PROE. A.J. Brown (8-5-65) looked great early, but like has been the case too often, they limited his impact on the game through an unwillingness to throw. DeVonta Smith (6-4-29) and Dallas Goedert (5-5-61) suffered a similar fate. Jalen Hurts only completed 18 passes, and that trio did account for a high percentage of those with 14 receptions.
Saquon Barkley (26-146-2, 3-2-52) was piecing together a very solid game before the late-game eruption I wrote about in the introduction. His two long TD runs came in the span of four offensive plays, with Jayden Daniels throwing a poor interception on the first snap after the Eagles took control at 19-10 on Barkley’s first TD. Immediately after the INT, Barkley went for 7 then for 39 to the house, which wound up being the Eagles’ last offensive play, other than a kneeldown. As I noted, with a lot of guys you’re hoping for one play like Barkley’s three to make their whole day, so that ability to hit three in basically a quarter is massive. Barkley did lose another earlier TD when he was tackled at the 1-yard line and Hurts got the tush push.
After Barkley’s second TD, Daniels and Washington had a 15-play TD drive coming back, with Zach Ertz (7-6-47-1) catching a TD and a 2-point conversion for an octopus with 31 seconds left to get us to the 26-18 final score. Several accounts on social were talking about how poor Daniels has been throwing down the field since his rib injury, which sucks. I hadn’t picked up on that, but he wasn’t any better in this one, completing no passes further than 15 yards downfield and the vast majority within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage in Washington’s quick passing game.
He’s also stopped rushing, with three of his four lowest single-game rushing totals over the past three games, including just 18 yards in this one. I don’t have some great insight into this as it seems to be health-related, but obviously I was very high on his early-season play and my hope and expectation would be he’ll be better as soon as possible. It’s nice the Commanders get 10 days until their next game, and then their Week 14 bye adds some additional rest before the fantasy playoffs, at which point they might be battling for a playoff spot. I’m still high on what he can offer for these crucial final games.
Other than Ertz, it was quiet. Terry McLaurin (2-1-10) got eaten up by the tough matchup, as did Noah Brown (4-1-4) and everyone else. Austin Ekeler (2-7, 9-8-89) benefitted with a massive day of checkdowns, posting a season-high 8 HVTs. Brian Robinson (16-63-1, 1-1-9) was still the lead rusher and had a solid day running the ball. Though Robinson got way more touches and the TD, Ekeler outscored him in PPR.
Signal: Jalen Hurts — sixth straight game with fewer than 30 pass attempts (-12.5% PROE)
Noise: Jayden Daniels — struggling as a downfield passer and also limited as a rusher since his rib injury (gets 10 days before next week’s game and also a Week 14 bye before the fantasy playoffs, so hopefully extra time helps him close strong)
Packers 20, Bears 19
Key Stat: Packers — 43 plays, 17 pass attempts (both lowest in Week 11, through Sunday)
In the first game after an OC change, the Bears nearly upset the Packers at home, but had a field goal blocked at the end. It was a sloppy game late that cost us some fantasy production, with the Packers getting stopped at the 1-yard line on fourth down early in the fourth quarter, then both teams failing 2-point conversions in the period (which can definitely be useful fantasy plays), and then the Bears settling for that field in part as a result of the other stuff leading up to it, and having that kick blocked. Ultimately, Green Bay ran just 43 plays and threw just 17 passes in the entire game, as both teams had just seven possessions, and the Bears especially moving slowly and dominating time of possession. All seven of their drives were at least seven plays of length and took at least 2:59 off the game clock, which was certainly a positive sign.
One of Green Bay’s drives was actually just kneeling before the half, so they really had just six drives, three of which ended in touchdowns, with another getting to the 1-yard line for that turnover on downs, and a fifth traveling 61 yards before an interception in the red zone. So certainly they were solid off their bye, and some of the limited play volume came from their own efficiency at times, as they averaged a whopping 8.5 yards per play and still put up 366 total yards. Christian Watson (4-4-150) made some splash plays, and kept Dontayvion Wicks (1-0-0) in a clear ancillary role out of the bye. Romeo Doubs (2-1-17) was quieter, and Jayden Reed (2-2-23-1) didn’t do a ton but did catch a TD, at least. Tucker Kraft (1-0-0) was kind of an afterthought as the passing game focused more on the WRs here.
Josh Jacobs (18-76-1, 5-4-58) played 80% of the snaps, racking up 8 HVTs, the second most in Week 11, through Sunday. Chris Brooks (2-2-13) played more than Emanuel Wilson (2-17) behind him, as we got word MarShawn Lloyd had appendicitis and will need multiple more weeks. The Packers were third lowest in PROE here at -11.7%, and Jacobs continues to have a very strong role.
Caleb Williams played better under a new coordinator, notably running way more, racking up 70 rushing yards on 9 carries. He still had some accuracy issues, but he’s the best example of what I mentioned in the intro about guys being put in difficult passing situations continuously, and how that impacts the way they play even on easier reps, which is something that maybe sounds like pseudoscience but I feel pretty strongly about right now. In this one, we saw some things work more favorably for him, but he’ll still need some time. All of this has been terrible for his development, and then yes, maybe he’s just not as good as advertised, also.
Rome Odunze (10-6-65) got a lot of volume in the first game under the new OC, including back-to-back big plays of 16 and 21 yards on 3rd-and-19 and then 4th-and-3 on the final drive to help set up the game-winning field goal try. Earlier, Williams just barely missed Odunze for what could have been a big play — Odunze dove for it and it was literally just off his fingertips. That one could have been a huge play.
D.J. Moore (7-7-62) was very involved in the first half, and Keenan Allen (8-4-41) got plenty of volume, as well. Cole Kmet (3-3-42) got a few targets and was very efficient, and remains painfully underutilized. I mentioned it weeks ago, but this offense would have been better off if they’d elected to ship Keenan to a contender at the deadline, just to free some stuff up. I still think he could be a decent player — he had a solid reception lost to an illegal motion penalty that didn’t impact the play and would have made his line look better in this game — and I think it would be better for both him and more directly the Bears if he wasn’t in this offense right now, but alas, he is. (To clarify the point of addition by subtraction, I think the volume could pretty seamlessly go to Kmet and Moore in underneath spaces, and then also open up Odunze. Instead, I think we’re seeing Caleb really trying to get Keenan going, and having that as a first read limits the opportunities for him to be looking elsewhere, but I think everyone else is more explosive. They have just never known what they are as a passing offense this year, but I think prioritizing the more explosive trio would be a start.)
D’Andre Swift (14-71-1, 2-2-13) had a strong game, but Roschon Johnson (10-33-1, 1-1-8) got a lot more work, posting a season-high 42% snaps under a new OC, with Swift down to 57%, his lowest figure since Week 3. Roschon also had 3 green zone touches to just 1 for Swift. The problem for Roschon stans is Swift is performing well, including on a 39-yard TD in the third quarter here, and Roschon didn’t exactly demand even more work. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.
Signal: Josh Jacobs — 80% snaps, 8 HVTs (MarShawn Lloyd’s return has been delayed by appendicitis and Chris Brooks overtook Emanuel Wilson for No. 2 job, all of which has led to a big Jacobs role); Christian Watson — 104 air yards (limited pass volume, but had a big role coming out of bye); Rome Odunze — 10 targets, 113 air yards, 0.82 WOPR in first game under new OC
Noise: Packers — 43 plays, 17 pass attempts (averaged 8.5 yards per play in a weird game); Roschon Johnson — season-high 42% snaps, 3 of 4 green zone touches in first game under new OC (definitely notable stuff, but also have to note D’Andre Swift had a long second-half TD and may just wrestle back some work, so calling it Noise for now)
Lions 52, Jaguars 6
Key Stat: Lions — touchdowns on 7 consecutive drives to begin game (starters only played 7)
After the second possession, I had in my notes that the Lions were moving the ball at will, which was to be expected against a bad defense, and scored with little resistance on their first two drives. Then I had to update that their first three, then four, which I added “(all four of first half)” to. I didn’t update it when they opened the second half with a quick strike, but after their sixth straight, I had to add more. They’d score a TD on their seventh drive, too. If this paragraph is annoying, and it sounds like I’m extending out a simple point, I’d argue that it needs to be extended out to give the full effect: It’s not just that they scored touchdowns of at least 64 yards on all seven of their first drives — and that five of those were 80 yards or longer, including 93- and 96-yarders when they started inside their own 10 — it’s that their methodical dismantling of the Jaguars lasted for literally the entirety of the game that the first team played. It wasn’t until their eighth drive, when Hendon Hooker took over, that they failed to score a touchdown, and even then it was a field goal drive. Their ninth drive lasted 11 plays and ran out the clock on the game. They didn’t punt. And nothing felt hard — they were 6-of-10 on third downs, and 3-of-3 on fourth downs when they didn’t convert the thirds (plus they kicked that one late FG) — but only two of those nine conversions required more than 4 yards to go. They saw just three of those third downs across their first five drives, lasting into the second half, and three of those drives — which again were all long drives, starting in their own territory — had no third downs whatsoever. In all, they had 645 yards of offense, with Jared Goff throwing for 412 and 4, and the rushing attack adding 196. This was just genuinely one of the most dominant offensive performances you will ever see.
In addition to the clear stars, the Lions seemed to be trying to work Jameson Williams (6-4-124-1, 1-2) in with a couple early opportunities including a lateral on a random 1st-and-10 play where they called a hook and ladder to get him the ball around the corner. That wasn’t even that big of a gain, but we saw it break through in the second half when the early quite strike after halftime was Williams going 64 yards on a catch-and-run for a TD. Of course, Williams was the one part of the puzzle that felt at least a little bit like work. Amon-Ra St. Brown (11-11-161-2) felt like he could literally go wherever he wanted on the field. David Montgomery (15-75-2, 3-3-20) rushed efficiently. And Jahmyr Gibbs (11-69-1, 1-1-54) had one of the most explosive plays on a 54-yard reception you’ll ever see, just barely tripped up by a defender in a way that seemed almost impossible given how he was making everyone else look like they weren’t moving. He’s Jamaal Charles reincarnate. The Lions fucking rule.
For the Jaguars, Brian Thomas (7-5-82) had a nice game to continue his strong rookie season, and Travis Etienne (12-27, 3-3-6) looked better than his stat line, which isn’t to say he looked great but it was just a disaster offensively. Apparently now Gabe Davis (3-1-3) might be out for the year. Evan Engram (7-5-28) got plenty of looks. Honestly, as bad as Mac Jones has looked in this offense the past two weeks has given me at least a little hope for Trevor Lawrence given what he’s been able to do. I’m not sure I’ll be able to quit him even next year if they get a good coach in here with BTJ as an obvious Year 2 star to grow with. In this game, Jones was just chucking up these sideline balls that are the hardest throws to make, and for Jones they aren’t close. There’s nothing helping him in the scheme, no easy completions or anything. The Jags had 170 yards of offense, and were obviously never competitive.
Signal: Lions — the actual Death Star, run for the hills, they are coming for you; Jameson Williams — 6 targets, 70 air yards (didn’t even seem needed in this game, but it felt like Detroit went out of their way to get him rolling, which is nice since Amon-Ra St. Brown feels completely unguardable and the RBs are so dominant as the three-man core, so Jameson could easily be forgotten about some)
Noise: Jaguars — 313 total yards of offense over past two weeks (Mac Jones starts, with hopefully Trevor Lawrence back after the Week 12 bye)
Dolphins 34, Raiders 19
Key Stat: Brock Bowers — 16 targets, 40% TPRR, 0.88 WOPR (second highest in Week 11, through Sunday)
The Dolphins got a necessary win to move to 4-6, and their drive chart frankly looked somewhat similar to the Lions in that they scored touchdowns on four possessions, field goals on two others, and only had seven possessions total, with the final one being a 45-second sequence before the end of the half. Still, they weren’t anywhere near as dominant, totaling 353 yards of offense, and the difference is they were moving a lot slower, and were at times dependent on penalties and those things. Frankly, this game felt a little too close at all times, until Miami scored 17 in the fourth quarter to put it away.
Tyreek Hill (8-7-61-1) was a glorified possession receiver for most of the game, catching several big conversions, including a 3rd-and-short in the red zone, a 4th-and-short around midfield, a 3rd-and-short in the early second half, and then an 8-yard TD on 3rd-and-goal to cap that drive. Those are big plays obviously, but the first three were all completions of 6 yards or fewer, and the last was 8. Hill did catch an 18-yarder as his long, but we’re still waiting on explosives.
The guy who had one was Jonnu Smith (8-6-101-2) with a late 57-yard score on a defensive bust where he got left wide open. Earlier, he’d gotten a fade on 3rd-and-goal and then a TD reception on fourth as the Dolphins were using him in close, and when he added the long, late score, his good day went to great. Smith continues to just be a bigger focal point than Jaylen Waddle (3-2-37), who as I detailed recently, is still not getting first-read stuff and doesn’t look like a focal point of the offense. He also appeared to not be in the right spot on two early potential chances, and his big catch of 24 yards was on an extended play. All of that is few and far between for him right now. The rest of the passing game was distributed evenly to several guys.
De’Von Achane (17-73-1, 4-4-32) continued to have a monster workload and really be the engine of the offense early, and then throughout. Raheem Mostert (3-(-2)) was announced as having a hip issue early in the second quarter, but came in not long after that for a green zone touch, before not playing much. Jaylen Wright (5-4, 1-1-2) continues to not really look as good as Achane, to put it bluntly. I think Wright is interesting as a handcuff given how little Mostert has done — and in no way do I want to be the guy who has told you to draft and/or hold him for a bunch of time and then tells you to cut right before he goes off in the playoffs, and he’s absolutely the type of profile that could, and this is a high-value situation with only Achane really reliable ahead of him — but, if you’re looking for roster space, I’ll just say that in the event of an Achane injury, I’m not super confident Wright would get a ton of work and smash. He’d still be a clear target on waivers and upside play, and all that, but I guess I could see where they could do a lot of different stuff, and use guys like Malik Washington (3-3-11, 1-7) out of the backfield. That said, if they lose some more, Wright should get a look down the stretch in a lost season. For the season, he has a 4.1 YPC on 52 carries and has just two targets, which is part of the concern, though he did catch his first pass of the year in this game, and that could tick up late in his rookie year.
Gardner Minshew continues to be a lot better for the fantasy prospects of his skill guys than he is in real life. Brock Bowers (16-13-126-1) absolutely ate out of the bye, looking like the focal point early, and then truly exploding late, including 6 fourth-quarter receptions. It’s a convenient explanation but also correct to say that he’s clearly the thing that works best for the offense, and then Jakobi Meyers (6-4-28, 1-20) adds a little something off of that, and then that’s sort of all they have going for them.
You also have the RB position, because all teams have the potential for RB production. Zamir White (5-9) played a lot early, including in shotgun on pass downs, but just doesn’t look great. His limited rushes looked like he was trying to get physical with every run, because he can’t make anyone miss, and lacks explosiveness. Alexander Mattison (5-19, 3-3-50) had to wait a long time to get extended run, but made some quick plays and got more work. It seems clear the new OC wanted to feature White but then Mattison just looked way better. I guess I’ve kinda gotten into Mattison as a low-upside play. He seemed to get rolled up on late, though, and then Ameer Abdullah (1-1, 3-3-16-1) played the rest of that drive, including catching a receiving TD, and basically seemed to play the rest of the game.
Signal: Jonnu Smith — 8 targets, multiple end zone targets (seems like way more of a focal point than Jaylen Waddle); Brock Bowers — ‘nuff said
Noise: Tyreek Hill — 8.0 aDOT (I’m sure they’ll get him down the field again, but he was also at 4.5 in Week 10 and it’s definitely part of his story right now); Alexander Mattison — 31% snaps (lost a ton of work under a new OC, but it was clear they tried to feature Zamir White early and he was just bad, and then Mattison seemed to get rolled up on late, but in between looked like their best RB and seemed to be earning back playing time quickly)