Wrote a lot in the intro yesterday, and in looking back over that, I definitely got a little tangential and long-winded, so hopefully the main points came through. An intro I would have liked to have edited, for sure, but I carved out some time to watch the USMNT in the World Cup yesterday so ran a little behind on time.
Don’t have a ton of other stuff to discuss this week, but Nolan offered a fun hypothetical in the comments of yesterday’s post:
Curious, do you prefer the 49ers offense or the Dolphins offense more ROS? Like if you theoretically were offered Tyreek Hill and Jeff Wilson for CMC and Aiyuk, you taking it?
It’s a really fun hypothetical, and these are probably the two most exciting offenses in fantasy right now in terms of exceeding expectations. The Dolphins have been so concentrated with their production, and the 49ers have so many weapons that I have extremely high expectations for their overall offensive output the rest of the way, that it’s tough to pick a favorite. It’s obviously very interesting, as well, that Mike McDaniel came over from San Francisco and you have the Dolphins RBs being former 49ers producers, and so many links between these teams.
My immediate response to the question was to think both offenses are so close in their fantasy appeal, and the ultimate decider will unfortunately be something like injury, or whether Jimmy Garoppolo is unable to play up to the talent around him for a stretch, or those sorts of less fun outcomes to discuss. If something like that doesn’t negatively impact either offense, you’ll feel like you couldn’t go wrong either way, because they are both great spots.
So as for the specific trade hypothetical, I’d view it on the player level. As you’ll see in today’s writeup, I’m still very optimistic about Christian McCaffrey, despite another less-than-elite game this week, and I’m getting increasingly bullish on Brandon Aiyuk. But I still think the answer is probably the Miami guys in a vacuum, given the concentration of that offense. Tyreek Hill’s role has been elite, and right up there with even the bullish interpretation of CMC’s first few games in San Francisco in terms of impact, and Jeff Wilson is a pretty clear top-20 or so fantasy RB. I would say I feel more confident in the stability of the Miami guys’ production, while not feeling like I’m sacrificing any ceiling.
As with a lot of these questions, though, it’s close, and there is a ton of overlap, where you’re talking about the difference between hitting a 60th percentile or 40th percentile outcome probably being enough to dictate the end result. Roster context would also come into play — whether a fantasy team is better configured with an elite WR and a very playable RB or an elite RB and a very playable WR for those two spots very well could be the difference.
Alright, let’s close out Week 11. Data for Stealing Signals is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, RotoGrinders, Add More Funds, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
Raiders 22, Broncos 16
RB Snap Notes: Latavius Murray: 50% (+3 vs. previous season high), Melvin Gordon: 45% (cut), Chase Edmonds: 5% (injured)
WR Snap Notes: Keelan Cole: 67% (-2 vs. Week 10 high), Kendall Hinton: 88% (-8 vs. W10 high)
Key Stat: Davante Adams — 0.82 WOPR (0.7 or better in 6 of past 7 games)
This was one of those games where you could make a case either of these teams should be better than they’ve shown to be, and then they played to the same level, so maybe they just aren’t very good. Davante Adams (13-7-141-2) was a monster, including notching the game-winner in overtime, a 35-yard score. Mack Hollins (9-6-52) the only other Raiders’ WR or TE to do much of anything, with Keelan Cole (2-1-21) and Foster Moreau (3-1-33) just running a lot of routes to get their cardio in.
Josh Jacobs (24-109, 4-3-51) didn’t find the end zone, but he had a strong day nonetheless, and continues to build out a career season. His routes were down a bit at 47% but Ameer Abdullah’s (4-3-5) also fell again to just 18% of dropbacks, so not much of a concern there.
Kendall Hinton (3-3-57) ran routes on 86% of dropbacks, replacing Jerry Jeudy again, and had some nice moments. Courtland Sutton (7-5-80) led the way for the Broncos’ WRs, while Greg Dulcich (5-4-30) was also at 86% as the other main target. The passing game is concentrated right now, but it also continues to sputter, with Russell Wilson throwing for fewer than 250 yards here, and failing to post a 300-yard game since Week 1.
I have in my notes “Hackett is a really bad coach” but I didn’t elaborate and that feels fitting. It was something with timeouts because I sent the below tweet, but I honestly can’t remember the specifics right now and don’t really care to.
I’m seeing now that not long after I sent that, I sent this.
it's reached the point where i'm wondering if nathaniel hackett watched football before this season or we are going to find out later this was some kind of elaborate ted lasso thingSo things are going great in Denver.
The big story here before we move on is the backfield. Melvin Gordon (8-31, 5-5-39) played a lot in this game, but was released after it. He ran routes on 37% of dropbacks, while Latavius Murray (17-49-1, 4-4-23) was at 29%. Murray will presumably add some routes here, especially since Chase Edmonds was injured and will miss time. The team does still have Marlon Mack, but neither Murray nor Mack really profile as passing-down guys at this stage of their careers. We might see some utility from Mike Boone upon his return in that role, or else the other name here on the practice squad is Devine Ozigbo, and he’s been used as a passing-down back at times in his small NFL sample. But someone’s gotta play these snaps, and Boone is the one that is most interesting as a stash.
As an aside, I had to argue that Javonte Williams could work into a full-time role over Gordon all offseason, and even after Williams got hurt Gordon got released, and the Broncos are going to start some guys they picked up midseason the rest of the way. A healthy Williams is a smash this year.
Signal: Davante Adams — 0.7 WOPR or higher in 6 of past 7 games, dominating volume
Noise: Broncos RBs — ton of available opportunity, particularly with respect to passing downs, and very little clarity on where it might go (Mike Boone returning is a best guess)