Stealing Signals, Week 12, Part 2
Biggest Signals and Noise of the week
Yesterday’s intro felt a little unhinged, and I debated stopping at various points, and didn’t know how to turn back around, so I just through it all out there. And then I got a reply that was like, “Amazing intro,” so I went back and read it, and I mean it made more sense than I figured it did!
That was even longer than last week’s that I broke off into its own post, at almost 6,000 words. I’ve said before that the first piece of writing advice I ever got is still some of the best, which was to not try to answer all the questions in one piece. But I’m a crazy person, I’m still trying to do that every time I write.
It’s a holiday week, so all my thoughts on play sequencing, and run/pass ratios, and confidence, and momentum, and QB play, and how football works generally will have to suffice for the intro for both parts this week. Let’s get to the games.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and NFL Pro. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Broncos 29, Raiders 19
Key Stat: Devaughn Vele — 9 targets, 95 air yards (4+ catches in three straight games)
You’d think by how bad Javonte Williams’ (8-(-2), 4-2-6) stat line was that he got phased out a bit again, but he actually played his highest snap share in weeks, after Jaleel McLaughlin (7-44, 1-0-0) got off to a fast start but then hurt his ankle. This obviously isn’t a great sign for Audric Estime (3-15), either, and this backfield is basically just unplayable, which is something I have a real hard time understanding, and clearly missed on this year. Marvin Mims (5-3-44, 2-(-2)) has actually stolen a significant chunk of the backfield touches, and his 5 targets amounted to -18 air yards as Sean Payton’s answer to not trusting any of his actual RBs to play that receiving role he does want in the offense.
Courtland Sutton (10-8-97-2) had a strong game, including an early TD on a 50/50 ball on just a fade to the end zone, and then a later TD to push the lead to 10 points and effectively put the game away, after the Raiders did hang around. Devaughn Vele (9-6-80) is the other name that is increasingly worth keeping an eye on. No one else had more than 2 catches.
The Gardner Minshew injury is quite frustrating, in that Desmond Ridder is a pretty big downgrade for the skill players’ value. Minshew is able to get the ball out to guys for receptions, but Ridder tends to hold it and also is less accurate. That really sucks for Brock Bowers (10-4-38), who had a rough game in this one where the whole defensive gameplan felt like it was centered on him. There was a play where Bowers ran like a 2-yard out and Patrick Surtain crashed down hard to cut that off, which allowed Minshew to get it to Jakobi Meyers (15-10-121) on a deeper out layered above Bowers’ route. In hindsight, Surtain should have definitely been respecting Meyers’ deeper route, but his focus was on Bowers. Later, Bowers got a slant on a third down and Surtain was a second defender coming down hard to lay a big hit that probably should have been illegal, but wasn’t flagged. There was a trail defender in man, but then Surtain was bracketing on top. Meyers ate as a result, with 10 catches on 15 targets, and Tre Tucker (8-7-82) had four catches in garbage time from Ridder — among Ridder’s 5 completions — to finish with a good day.
The two guys I was debating as the cover boys for Input Volatility this week were Kendrick Bourne, who I went with, and Ameer Abdullah (8-28, 6-5-37-1), who was way more fun. I’d argued Abdullah might play a huge snap share, and he got all the way up to 90%, with Sincere McCormick (5-33) mixing in just a little (but looking decent as a runner). Abdullah’s TD came on a wheel route, which was fun. The other backs will likely impact his role going forward.
Signal: Devaughn Vele — 4+ catches in three straight (also his three highest route shares this year); Marvin Mims — 5 targets, -18 air yards (Sean Payton does clearly want that backfield receiving role, but more or less doesn’t have an RB on the roster he wants to use that way and has resorted to Mims)
Noise: Javonte Williams — 56% snaps, 39% routes (just doesn’t have the efficiency, and Marvin Mims is taking the designed backfield receiving work); Ameer Abdullah — 90% snaps (perfect storm of both other main RBs out plus a defense that invites Abdullah’s type of RB to succeed, so the Raiders leaned into him for a solid day); Brock Bowers — 4 catches (10 targets, double-covered on multiple plays, but the Gardner Minshew injury is a bummer for his upside)
Packers 38, 49ers 10
Key Stat: Packers — (-15.0%) PROE, 23/42 pass/run ratio (49ers — 46 offensive plays)
We have three games today where the winning side went super run heavy, even relative to expectation, with all of them hitting an actual pass rate below 40%. The Packers are the first, and Josh Jacobs (26-106-3, 1-0-0) had a huge day, though he did his typical thing where his rush efficiency was weaker than his missed tackle numbers, as he generated a massive 12 MTF but still barely hit 4 yards per carry, needing 26 totes to narrowly crest 100 rushing yards. That’s fine, because the workload is massive, and the 5 green zone touches equated to three huge TDs, but I guess the point is he’s more usage and short-yardage dependent that some of the home-run hitters.
Chris Brooks (4-11, 1-1-15) continued to play a lot on pass downs, while Emanuel Wilson (9-41) is more the backup rusher.
Christian Watson (3-0-0, 1-4) outright dropped a bomb TD with 30 seconds left in the half, which was tough to see. Jayden Reed (3-3-26) made a few plays, but was mostly quiet in a 23-attempt game, and Romeo Doubs (6-3-54) made some plays before getting concussed on a DPI in the end zone that set up one of Jacobs’ short-yardage TDs. Oh, and Tucker Kraft (2-2-26-1) got a short TD as well. If Doubs misses next week, we’ll have another runway for Dontayvion Wicks, although I’d be pretty excited for Reed to finally get going again, as well.
Brandon Allen wasn’t great in this game, but maybe wasn’t horrible, either. His interception went right through Deebo Samuel’s (4-1-21) hands, and while Deebo did have a huge kick return called back by a penalty, he just is not making an impact. Had another drop in garbage time, as well.
One guy who always makes an impact is George Kittle (6-6-82-1), who had another great toe tap TD, caught a nice back shoulder throw late, and had several other strong plays in between. Jauan Jennings (7-5-40) was just fine without Brock Purdy, and Christian McCaffrey (11-31, 4-3-37) couldn’t find any room to run and had a tough fumble. It was a forgettable game for the 49ers’ offense in which they ran just 46 offensive plays, fewest of Week 12.
Signal: George Kittle — only 49er who was able to produce despite no Brock Purdy, because he’s a stud
Noise: Christian Watson — flat dropped a bomb for a TD; Packers — (-15.0%) PROE, 23/42 pass/run ratio; 49ers — 46 offensive plays (Brandon Allen at QB, Packers run-heavy)
Seahawks 16, Cardinals 6
Key Stat: Trey McBride — 15 targets, 38% TPRR, 12 catches, 133 yards
It was a low-scoring game in Seattle, but the key players still had some fun. D.K. Metcalf (5-4-59) was quiet, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba (7-6-77-1) got going in the screen game, putting together a huge receiving line with just 13 air yards and a 1.9-yard aDOT. He’s shown us in recent weeks he can win downfield, but certainly being able to put a whole nearly 20-point PPR game together without that is also positive, and it’s clear the production can come at all depths right now. The big play for him did come off a WR screen, and then he caught a TD to cap that drive in the tight red zone, while he did have about a 15-yard downfield catch in this game that was lost to a hold, so it’s not like his route running was absent. He remains a fantastic option going forward, Outside JSN and DKM, no Seahawk WR or TE had more than 20 yards.
Kenneth Walker (16-41, 6-4-52) didn’t have a huge day, and Seattle seemed to treat Zach Charbonnet (6-22) as their better bet in short yardage, which was an unwelcome sight. Charbs got two carries inside the 5-yard line, right after the 2-minute warning of the first half, so Walker should have been good to go. The positive for Walker managers is Charbs didn’t convert either, but he stayed on for third down for the JSN receiving TD. Seattle also gave Charbs a run that he did convert on a key 3rd-and-4 late, and on another 3rd-and-7 where they just wanted to get forward for a few yards to take the game down to the 2-minute warning at the end and set up field goal range. Maybe this usage can be chalked up to being inside the final five minutes of each half, but it’s probably the case that Charbs is the more direct downhill runner, so it’s not exactly surprising they might lean toward him on short-yardage stuff. I’m calling it Noise for now given Walker got both green zone touches just last week, and has had the clear lead all year, but we’ll have to keep an eye on it. Even if Walker loses that, it’s still clear they see him as integral to their offense, and value his home-run-hitter ability, finding ways to get him the ball in space via the passing game and so much more, so it wouldn’t be devastating for Walker, though obviously TDs are massive.
Trey McBride (15-12-133) had an eventful day, to say the least. Let’s start with the bad. There was an embarrassing moment where he fell down short of the line to gain to secure a catch, turned and pointed for a first down, and then was marked short for a 4th-and-1 and a punt. He could have just rolled over and gotten it as he was untouched, but he clearly thought he ran his route a yard deeper, and was focused on securing it, then celebrated, then looked dumb. He also had a less obvious error where he didn’t get out of bounds inside two minutes, when he should have, and then got caught blocking in the back on another play right after that. Those weren’t great moments! Everything else was. McBride otherwise looked the part, being so consistent and reliable, and turning in the huge game we’ve been waiting for. Coming of the bye, it was clear they wanted to prioritize a lot of block and release stuff and yards after the catch, though he did amass 90 air yards while catching several downfield targets, as well. Dude’s just a total stud.
Marvin Harrison (6-3-47) had another quiet day, even out of the bye, which is disappointing. He had a nice catch at the front pylon that could have went for a TD but couldn’t get his second foot in. Michael Wilson (4-2-54) also had a near miss on that sequence where he lost a TD to penalty.
James Conner (7-8, 5-5-41) frankly looked old on his rushes, but the Cardinals only ran the ball 14 times, and he was solid in the pass game. Trey Benson (4-18) has been creeping a little bit, but he only got a 16% snap share here. He’s still interesting, and worth holding if possible, but it’s a bit concerning his usage dipped after the bye. Perhaps that will shift back more positively if the Cardinals try to run the ball a bit more early next week.
Signal: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 7-6-77-1 line in a game where he didn’t get anything going downfield (1.9 aDOT) is a positive in this case, as we’ve seen the downfield lately and he’s producing at all depths in a way that makes him likely to be part of every gameplan; Trey McBride — 15 targets, 38% TPRR
Noise: Zach Charbonnet — 2 green zone touches (got some other short-yardage stuff in this one, though it came inside 5 minutes of both halves, and it’s just not entirely clear it was a big role shift)
Eagles 37, Rams 20
Key Stat: Eagles — (-15.7%) PROE, 22/45 pass/run ratio
As I wrote in yesterday’s intro, Saquon Barkley (26-255-2, 4-4-47) just feels inevitable, and justifies the Eagles’ approach to just maximize the amount of times he touches the ball until he puts his mark on the game, something so few teams intelligently do around their superstars. He had over 300 total yards.
Kenneth Gainwell (5-22-1) also managed to find paydirt in this one, while A.J. Brown (7-6-109-1) had basically all the non Barkley-yards. Gainwell, Dallas Goedert (5-4-19), and Jahan Dotson (1-1-4) combined for 45, and no one else, other than Jalen Hurts, recorded a touch.
I will say, AJB continues to impress, posting another 100-yard day despite another absurdly low pass attempt total (22). Every time the Eagles need a big play in the pass game, it’s AJB, and you know it’s gonna be AJB, and he still makes the play, and then adds 15 yards after the catch that shouldn’t have been there. In this one, he caught a TD that got knocked out late, and got ruled incomplete, and then the broadcast saw the replay and started wondering aloud, and then they got the rules analyst on and he pretty quickly said what everyone was realizing which was that even when it appeared AJB didn’t come up big, that was merely because we couldn’t understand his wizardry in real time and needed the art of slo-mo to reveal it was everyone else who was wrong, including me, but not including the infallible A.J. Brown.
Puka Nacua (13-9-117) remains the stud 1a, while Cooper Kupp (11-8-60-1) got a late garbage-time TD, and look I’m loving the Kupp points, but it was a 27-yard TD and he was at 33 yards and no score until that hit with 1:07 left.
Behind them, Demarcus Robinson (3-2-15-1) caught a TD, and Tutu Atwell (3-3-30) had a few catches, but his routes remain limited. Davis Allen’s (1-0-0) run as a potential fantasy TE option was very short lived, as he’s back down to 38% routes here. Colby Parkinson (2-1-10) was even lower at 29%.
Kyren Williams (16-72-1) fumbled on the first possession, then again later on, but Blake Corum (1-5) still got fewer touches than Kyren fumbles, as he remains the clear lead back.
Signal: A.J. Brown — 100 yards and a TD in a 22-team-attempt game (guy’s unbelievable); Davis Allen — 38% routes, so not a fantasy option (Colby Parkinson is still lower at 29%, so there isn’t a fantasy TE for L.A.)
Noise: Saquon Barkley — two 70-yard rushing TDs in the same game is going to inflate things a bit, but only a bit; Cooper Kupp — keeps coming up big for fantasy managers late, but had 33 yards and no TDs before a 27-yard garbage-time TD with 1:07 left (still clearly the 1b to Puka Nacua’s more stable volume as the 1a)
Ravens 30, Chargers 23
Key Stat: Hassan Haskins — 45% snaps, 1 touch, Gus Edwards — 23% snaps, 9 touches
The Chargers got out to a fast start, but lost J.K. Dobbins (6-40, 5-3-19) around halftime, and he wouldn’t return. Obviously the hope is Dobbins hasn’t suffered yet another serious injury, but this is a fascinating spot to analyze in the event he does miss time. The snaps and touches for the backs in the visual above say a lot, starting with Gus Edwards (9-11-1, 1-0-0) getting all the second-half work, but still only reaching a 23% snap share, while Hassan Haskins (1-3) — the only other active RB, and mostly for his special teams role — was forced into a 45% snap share but the team gave him the ball literally only one time. His only offensive role this year has been in short yardage, but he’s struggled, and Edwards did get an early carry out of a fullback alignment (something Haskins had gotten in the past) plus the late short-yardage TD, which was new for Edwards and positive, and suggested Haskins had been working further away from usage. Edwards also didn’t look nearly as good as he has lately in this game, and while his playing time certainly was impacted by the negative game script, and he will almost certainly start any games Dobbins misses and play the early downs in the first half, we learned that the bulk of Dobbins’ reps are very available. Yeah, that’s Kimani Vidal’s music. I’m not gonna lie, I was prepared to argue his situation has changed since the early-season stuff, which I’ve written about, and that he isn’t likely to vault into a key role right away. But after seeing these numbers, and how unwilling the Chargers were to either play Edwards more (i.e. in any situation other than obvious run downs, even when needed) or to just flat out give Haskins the ball, ever (even when he was on the field for nearly half the game’s snaps), the clear and logical conclusion is very pro-Vidal. The most likely outcome is Vidal is activated and plays all the pass downs, and has a real role in the Dobbins mold, with Edwards maybe getting more reps than he did when it was Dobbins in there to share with, but if Vidal is that back, he’ll be on the field a lot since he won’t tip the offense’s hand to the defense. When Edwards is out there, the defense basically doesn’t have to worry about a pass play, and when Haskins is out there the defense basically doesn’t have to account for the RB at all. So while Vidal’s situation has not been as good as I’d hoped, and it has not progressed positively around him as a player, the Chargers sort of just tipped their hand. If they aren’t going to use Vidal in a big way, they will have to get creative if some other fashion that they didn’t even hint at in the second half of this game without Dobbins. For reference, they’ve already played Vidal on pass downs (22 routes in his three main games this year, while Edwards has run 9 over the past three weeks since returning, and Haskins had 3 all season before 10 here in Week 12). I’m not promising anything with Vidal, but he’s objectively a huge waiver target with a path to a lead role in a strong offense.
As for the rest of this game, this is the third game in today’s five where the winning team had at least a -15% PROE (Baltimore was at -15.1%) and threw 23 or fewer times while recording at least 37 rushes. Derrick Henry (24-140) ran exceptionally well, though Lamar Jackson converted all three touchdowns, with one on the ground and two through the air. Rashod Bateman (3-2-43-1) caught a deep TD, and continues to hold his role over acquisition Diontae Johnson (1-0-0), who is a pure depth piece and arguably the Ravens only acquired to keep from other rosters, given the insanely cheap cost. He’ll have a moment or two eventually, and they try to get him an opportunity each week, but he’s not part of the offense.
Zay Flowers (8-5-62) led in targets, and Mark Andrews (5-5-44-1) had the other TD. No one else had multiple catches other than Justice Hill (4-55-1, 2-2-7), who also broke free for a 51-yard touchdown run to help put this game away in the fourth quarter.
Dobbins looked really solid while playing, and hopefully he’s OK and returns quickly, because he’s obviously having a fantastic season.
Ladd McConkey (6-6-83) led the way for the Chargers, while Josh Palmer (8-3-38) and Quentin Johnston (5-0-0) were wildly inefficient, with Johnston dropping several catchable balls as he continues to not be good enough at the catch point, as we’ve discussed. You’re really playing boom/bust when you start him. Will Dissly (4-4-47) came back to earth a little but didn’t vanish.
Signal: Kimani Vidal — Hassan Haskins played 43% snaps and got 1 touch, while Gus Edwards finished at only 23% snaps despite a need for him to play more, which pretty clearly indicates the availability of a solid role for Vidal if J.K. Dobbins misses time (Edwards will start, but Vidal’s the only guy they’ve shown a willingness to use in various situations)
Noise: Ravens — (-15.1%) PROE, 22/37 pass/run ratio (they are obviously capable, but this is extreme); Justin Herbert — 218 yards on 36 attempts (drops are a major issue, and it’s why Ladd McConkey and Will Dissly matter most, because they catch the ball with consistency); Quentin Johnston — 0 catches (I hesitate to call this Noise, but drops usually are, and he got 5 targets and does continue to get stuff designed for him)
Biggest Signals
Each week, I recap the article in this space. I typically don’t spend a ton of time discerning the specific nuances of each note, but I do try to vaguely rank the “Biggest Signals” and “Biggest Noise” in order of relevance/importance, which includes whether it was surprising and size of impact (i.e. loosely asking, “How much did value change?”) But again, it’s an extremely inexact ranking, and I can’t really explain some of the weird ways I think about it.
Bucky Irving — 52% snaps, 52% routes, 8 HVTs (took over lead role clearly, out-touching Rachaad White 12 to 5 in the first half, before White added work in the second half and with garbage time carries late, but Bucky was the focal point over him, and should be viewed as more valuable the rest of the way)
Kimani Vidal — Hassan Haskins played 43% snaps and got 1 touch, while Gus Edwards finished at only 23% snaps despite a need for him to play more, which pretty clearly indicates the availability of a solid role for Vidal if J.K. Dobbins misses time (Edwards will start, but Vidal’s the only guy they’ve shown a willingness to use in various situations)