No big intro today, but I turned Saturday’s Input Volatility post into basically three separate posts, with some more league-level trend talk, and then a team-by-team breakdown of TPRR and wTPRR numbers at bottom. Some interesting takeaways there, if you haven’t checked that post out.
I mentioned in that post I’m a little sick (again), because my kids keep getting sick, and did I mention I love them? They’re the best. Little germ-soaked angels. This one’s a cough, which means today’s post is once again brought to you by DayQuil, which I recently learned requires ID to buy, which honestly makes sense because this stuff might be actual speed in a bottle, and also I’m pretty sure I can see sounds and hear colors.
Hallucinations aside, I don’t just want to complain about being sick as much as mention this is a cough sickness — and we’re talking “coughed so hard I popped a blood vessel in one of my eyes” degree here — which has meant terrible sleep, which means there’s a very real chance some of the below makes absolutely no sense. It probably won’t seem that much different than usual, to be honest. When am I ever making sense? Still, it bears mentioning in advance. All bad takes this week are hereby blamed on being sick.
Let’s get to Week 13. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, RotoGrinders, Add More Funds, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
Bills 24, Patriots 10
RB Snap Notes: Devin Singletary: 44% (-10 vs. previous season low), James Cook: 43% (+17 vs. high), Nyheim Hines: 31% (+16 vs. BUF high), Rhamondre Stevenson: 98% (+8 vs. high)
Key Stat: James Cook — 7 HVT (tied third most in Week 13, through Sunday)
The Bills controlled this one throughout, notching a needed easy victory. Stefon Diggs (9-7-92-1) had a big day that could have been bigger, had he not lost a 59-yard TD to an offensive holding call, or failed to bring in a very catchable 25-yard-ish play a little later. Diggs’ TD was a cool sequence where it came on the first play of the second quarter, and the broadcast team mentioned after the break that Diggs was heated on the sideline, so on the very first play Buffalo went right to him in man coverage, and he won on his route for the score. Josh Allen didn’t even pretend to look at other receivers, he just trusted his guy. If that sounds a little like Allen benefitted from his WR being good, his next passing TD showed a helluva lot more range, as he used every inch of the field scrambling all the way to the sideline, and then throwing with a defender on his heels, while jumping out of bounds, to hit Gabriel Davis (7-2-15-1) for a touchdown. That’s what makes the great ones great — get the stuff that’s there (Diggs TD) and also create when it’s not.
Davis had another disappointing game. He appeared to get behind the defense at one point in the second quarter, but Allen’s throw was a little wide and perhaps out of bounds, and Davis didn’t track it well anyway. What’s happened with Davis is a conversation for another day, but I hit on it a little bit in Saturday’s post. Isaiah McKenzie (5-5-44) was involved early as the only other WR or TE to have more than one catch, but his routes did wind up dipping a bit again back to 70%. Still, that’s a good usage game for him.
James Cook (14-64, 6-6-41) was the big story for the Bills. He played a season-high 43% of the snaps, running routes on 41% of dropbacks, while Nyheim Hines (2-(-3), 2-1-21) was also more involved than he had been in any prior game with the Bills, running routes on 27% of dropbacks. Hines actually played 23 offensive snaps after just 24 combined over his first four games with the team. The routes those two took left Devin Singletary (13-51-1, 2-0-0) dropping way down to 35%, a season low and far below his 66% in Week 12. Though the team played on Thursday night, this wasn’t a short week situation, since they also played on Thanksgiving. If you’ve been reading every week, you know I’ve been more or less waiting for this shoe to drop with Singletary’s usage. Cook has been explosive, and it was only a matter of time before he got a little more work in the ways they envisioned him contributing. Keep in mind, rookies often scale up their roles late in the year, and a lot of the time it’s just because the team needs to feel comfortable they understand all the elements of the offense. Hines was also likely to get some more work at some point. I suspect Singletary will rebound a bit from this and still be the lead, but I also don’t think Cook is giving up all these gains. He had a strong night, and for the season is up to a very good 5.4 YPC with a solid 6.3 YPT. The receiving stuff is especially concerning for Singletary, because he’s never been great in that area from an efficiency perspective, and both of his targets in this one were catchable but both fell incomplete, with one being a pretty clear drop and the other being in that borderline range. He did punch in a 1-yard TD, though that was his only green zone touch, and Cook got one as well, while Hines got a pair. Singletary’s still usable, but there’s also reason to bench him if you have RB depth.
Speaking of routes and HVT roles, Rhamondre Stevenson (10-54, 8-6-24) continued to rack up those sweet PPRs, and he was up to a ridiculous 98% snap share, which is the highest we’ve seen for any RB in a game this year. His 87% routes are right up there among the highest RB weeks as well. He had an early fumble in this one, and was involved in a botched handoff prior to that fumble, which was something of an issue last year for him — he fumbled twice, and was didn’t play the next week both times (the first one was in Week 1, and he was deactivated for three weeks right after it). That this week’s fumble(s) didn’t impact his role at all shows how much trust he’s gained from the coaching staff.
The Patriots’ passing game was bad, with Mac Jones totaling 195 yards, 48 of which came on WR screen to their kick returner, Marcus Jones, in the first half. That was a perfectly dialed-up play, but the Patriots didn’t have answers for anything else, and no one but Jones had more than 31 receiving yards. Jakobi Meyers (5-3-22) and Hunter Henry (5-2-13) tied for the target lead, with Meyers doing so on just 63% routes after he took an unfortunate shot to the head in the end zone on what was a near TD but left him being evaluated for a concussion.
Signal: James Cook — season highs with 43% snaps, 41% routes, and 7 HVT; Rhamondre Stevenson — 98% snap share despite early fumble and involvement in botched handoff (has gained coaching staff trust)
Noise: Jakobi Meyers — 63% routes (was evaluated for concussion)
Steelers 19, Falcons 16
RB Snap Notes: Najee Harris: 66% (-1 vs. avg), Jaylen Warren: 20% (return), Tyler Allgeier: 52% (+13 vs. Week 12), Cordarrelle Patterson: 46% (-12 vs. W12)
Key Stat: Drake London — 1.03 WOPR (tied for Week 13 lead, through Sunday)
I had the over in this game so I’m definitely not mad that it missed in part thanks to seven combined field goals in a game where both teams did move the ball reasonably well. For the Steelers, that extends a stretch of really poor red zone performance, and they are averaging just 1.5 offensive touchdowns per game this season.
Najee Harris (17-86, 1-1-6) had a solid day for the Steelers, rushing efficiently, but it wasn’t a great one for fantasy. His routes were down at just 36% of dropbacks, while Jaylen Warren (1-5, 2-2-14) returned to run routes on 26%. Benny Snell (6-24, 1-1-11) worked in some, as well, with Harris probably not 100%.
Diontae Johnson (11-5-60) had another Diontae Johnson game, including a really bad drop on a third down crossing pattern short of the sticks where he had room to potentially run after the catch for a first down. Pat Freiermuth (5-3-76) must have gotten banged up, but I didn’t see it and can’t find anything on that — he ran routes on just 55% of dropbacks, and his snaps were way down at 55%, too. George Pickens (2-1-2) had a very quiet game in his return to Georgia.
I noted Cordarrelle Patterson (11-60, no targets) had gained some snaps last week, but he gave some back this week to Tyler Allgeier (10-52, no targets). It’s a rough offense to trust for RB production, obviously.
Drake London (12-6-95) was the big story, setting a season high with a 1.03 WOPR to dominate the passing volume the way we might have expected immediately after Kyle Pitts went out. It took a couple weeks, but it did come. Outside of London, Olamide Zaccheaus (5-2-13) saw a little volume, but no one else had more than two targets. Marcus Mariota threw just 24 passes, so London accounted for a full half of them. The Falcons posted a Week 13 low -18.6% PROE in this one.
Signal: Drake London — 50% target share, 1.03 WOPR (he won’t stay this high every week, but the dominance of the passing game is a great sign)
Noise: Pat Freiermuth — 5 targets, 3 catches (can’t find anything on a potential injury, but played just 55% snaps, ran routes on 55% of dropbacks, which is way out of line with his typical usage)