Let’s close out Week 13. Data for Stealing Signals is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, RotoGrinders, Add More Funds, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
Seahawks 27, Rams 23
RB Snap Notes: DeeJay Dallas: 48% (+14 vs. high), Tony Jones: 34% (debut), Kenneth Walker: 21% (injured), Cam Akers: 72% (+22 vs. high), Kyren Williams: 28% (-42 vs. W12 high)
WR Snap Notes: Van Jefferson: 100% (+13 vs. W12 high), Ben Skowronek: 97% (-1 vs. high)
Key Stat: Cam Akers — 72% snaps, 54% routes, 18 touches (all season highs)
The legend of Geno Smith continues to grow, as he threw for 367 and 3 TDs on 39 attempts in this one, hitting D.K. Metcalf (8-8-127-1) for an 8-yard, go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute left, after the Rams had taken the lead for the first time since the first quarter a little more than two minutes earlier. Unsurprisingly, Geno’s top targets were Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (12-9-128-1), who had the target lead in this one. Noah Fant (5-4-42-1) also caught just his second touchdown of the year, in just his fourth game with four or more catches.
Seattle was almost forced to go literal Zero RB in this one, after Kenneth Walker (3-36, 1-0-0) had been forced from the game early. DeeJay Dallas (10-37, 1-0-0) took over with Travis Homer inactive, but he also got hurt and was ruled doubtful to return. One snap after that report, recently-activated Tony Jones (7-14, 4-2-18) took a shot to the head that required a concussion evaluation, but Dallas bucked the doubtful tag and reentered. With the injuries, Seattle went very pass heavy with a +8.5% PROE. As far as what to expect from this backfield, and what opportunities it opens up, that’s a tough call, but Dallas is probably the best bet, health permitting (and assuming Walker is forced to miss time). Homer is another solid bet, but they’ve been more willing to use Dallas as a three-down back than Homer in the past.
The Rams turned to John Wolford under center in this one, and he played a pretty forgettable game, but his presence at least shifted the pass rate a little closer toward neutral, with a -6.4% PROE. Van Jefferson (4-2-39) ran routes on every dropback but didn’t do much, while Ben Skowronek (3-2-30) was not far off his routes and also didn’t do much. Brandon Powell (4-4-39, 3-45) and Tutu Atwell (5-2-48, 4-23) were in part-time roles where they both saw some rushing attempts along with some targets, and each had over 70 yards from scrimmage. Tyler Higbee (5-2-14) was also quiet again.
Cam Akers (17-60-2, 1-1-0) got back into a lead role, seeing his largest snap share of the season and also getting into a route on 54% of dropbacks, more than double his previous season high. He looked pretty good, too, despite the 3.5 YPC. He converted both of his green zone touches, and last week’s lead back, Kyren Williams (3-9, 1-0-0), was squarely in a secondary role.
Signal: DeeJay Dallas — 48% snaps, 39% routes (dealt with his own injury, but is probably the best bet to lead things if Kenneth Walker misses time); Cam Akers — season highs with 72% snaps, 54% routes, and 18 touches, and converted both green zone touches; Rams WRs — Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek were in the full roles but didn’t do much, while Brandon Powell and Tutu Atwell were both in hybrid type roles with some rushing work that are at least worth monitoring
Noise: Noah Fant — solid day, but ran routes on just 48% of dropbacks, and his four catches were just the fourth time he’s hit that mark in this part-time role, while the touchdown was just his second this season
49ers 33, Dolphins 17
RB Snap Notes: Christian McCaffrey: 82% (+1 vs. SF high), Jordan Mason: 18% (+5 vs. high), Raheem Mostert: 61% (return), Jeff Wilson: 37% (-24 vs. W12 high)
WR Snap Notes: Jaylen Waddle: 52% (banged up, returned)
Key Stat: Dolphins — 45 plays, 8 rush attempts (fewest in Week 13), +22.8% PROE (highest for any team in a game this season)
Well this was an interesting matchup. The Dolphins hit for a 75-yard TD on the first play from scrimmage, then struggled throughout, and they barely even tried to run, posting the single highest PROE for any team in a game this season at +22.8%. They also only ran 45 plays, as they struggled to generate first downs and keep the ball. Tua Tagovailoa was a little inaccurate at times, and San Francisco did keep the ball when they had it, going 8-19 on third downs while Miami failed on all seven of their tries.
While Jimmy Garoppolo got knocked from this game early and is down for the year, rookie Brock Purdy did a pretty good impersonation, at least as good as you can expect from a rookie seventh-round pick. Purdy managed the offense pretty well, facilitated to the elite weaponry, and got the job done at a low 5.4 aDOT.
Christian McCaffrey (17-66, 10-8-80-1) saw his snaps tick up to 82%, and ran routes on 78% of dropbacks, racking up 10 HVTs on the game. Jordan Mason (8-51) was the No. 2, getting into some of the low-value rush attempts, but CMC got all three RB green zone touches, not counting fullback Kyle Juszczyk’s TD catch. It was a pretty perfect setup for McCaffrey, while Mason’s 18% snap share and eight carries don’t match what Elijah Mitchell had been doing over the past few weeks. Mason looked good, though, and it’s possible he sees a little more than this. For now, McCaffrey ceding some of the low-value stuff to be on for an ~80% route rate and the green zone work would be a home run.
Deebo Samuel (10-6-58, 4-5) played through his injury and impacted the game in the short area of the field, while Brandon Aiyuk (9-5-46) did see a decent target share at a slightly lower aDOT than is typical for him (8.2). George Kittle (3-2-22) had a quiet game but ran routes on 93% of dropbacks, so no worries there.
I mentioned Tua had some accuracy issues, and he missed Jaylen Waddle (5-1-9) high on a couple throws where Waddle was open for potential 20ish-yard gains. Tyreek Hill (14-9-146-1) had at least one as well, but Hill still managed to have a pretty impactful stat line when the dust cleared. Waddle left the game for a bit, then returned but played rotationally. Trent Sherfield (3-1-75-1) scored the long touchdown early, and also saw his routes tick up as Waddle rotated off. No one else made an impact in the passing game.
Jeff Wilson (1-3, 2-0-0) will generate headlines for only getting one touch, as Raheem Mostert (7-30) led the backfield in snap share, but again, the Dolphins ran the ball just eight times total and had just 45 offensive plays. Mostert did start the game, and Wilson’s usage was not ideal, as the team opted to have Mostert on the field more. But they also struggled quite a bit and will run far more plays in most other games. This Wilson game is not something I’d expect to see again, as this offense is good enough to create value for both backs. In the end, Mostert ran routes on 49% of dropbacks, while Wilson was at 38%, so the gap wasn’t particularly large there. One of the bigger headaches here was fullback Alec Ingold (4-3-15) catching three balls.
Signal: Christian McCaffrey — 82% snaps, 78% routes, 10 HVTs, all three RB green zone touches (pretty perfect workload for him, with Jordan Mason taking some of the low-value touches); Raheem Mostert — started, played 61% snap share, plus 49% routes
Noise: Dolphins — 45 plays, +22.8% PROE, only 8 rush attempts (not massively concerned about Jeff Wilson); Jaylen Waddle — banged up in-game, played rotationally, just 54% routes total