Stealing Signals, Week 15, Part 1
TNF and the early Sunday games
Welcome to the final Monday edition of Stealing Signals, the culmination of my annual descent into madness. With hundreds of thousands of words written in just the past five months, I have truly broken my brain, and all that spews out of it these days are fragmented pieces of incoherent and lifeless takes.
Internally, I have a list of things I want to do once I’m no longer tethered to the rigors of this weekly column, and my ideas document is overflowing. I want to write more, because I’ve been forcing myself to write too much, but in a repetitive way, and I want to get out there and do other stuff. Like I said, none of this makes sense, but there’s a lot coming your way probably in January and February. This has been a wild season, and I already have like five things outlined for my “three biggest lessons” piece I always write to recap the year, plus I never did a second TPRR peak in-season and I’m itching to do my team-by-team breakdowns of that which will likely come out earlier than ever, and there’s more beyond that stuff.
I also have all sorts of sweats tonight with the two different Monday Night Football games, and I want to get through Part 1 in time to catch as much of that live as I can. So let’s get right into things, and we might get a little weird today. If you’re wondering why we’re getting weird, look to the Colts, and Jonathan Taylor dropping a ball before the end zone, and Adonai Mitchell throwing a pseudo-pick-6 on an absurd trick play where he took like a full minute to find the laces, or maybe to the Bengals where one of their defenders also dropped the ball before crossing the goal line why does this keep happening aaaarrrrggggghhhh.
As always, you can find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and you can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and NFL Pro. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Rams 12, 49ers 6
Key Stat: Kyren Williams — 62 touches across five calendar days
I wrote about this game in the intro to Input Volatility and made a very serious case that it was the worst fantasy game of the season, so we can’t spend too much time on it as it threatens to derail the good vibes for the rest of the column. For some reason, Sean McVay gave Kyren Williams (29-108, 2-2-4) 31 touches four days after he’d had a season-high 31 touches last Sunday. Maybe give Cooper Kupp (3-0-0) a carry so he can touch the ball. Puka Nacua (8-7-97, 2-11) got a pair of rushes, but apparently Blake Corum (3-5, 3-2-15) hasn’t done enough to warrant even spelling Kyren a little more. Hell, Matthew Stafford even got a designed QB sweep in the green zone after a quarter break, in one of the most galaxy-brained playcalls of the season. The huge usage is why McVay’s RBs have always been fantasy gold, but even if you have Kyren, you probably wanted to see the guy get a few plays off.
You’d think if Kupp was nothing, Demarcus Robinson (1-0-0) would do something, but nah. Nacua’s 51-yard catch early in the fourth quarter to set up the tiebreaking field goal to push this one to 9-6 was pretty much the only exciting play. There were 11 first-half punts in one of the all-time worst drive charts you’ll ever see. Significant rain clearly had an impact in the first half, and things got a little better once it died down over the break, but the die had been cast. This game was headed straight for suckville.
Isaac Guerendo (16-57, 4-4-18) was questionable but played a big role, and was clearly a lot healthier than it appeared. Patrick Taylor played a bit but did not touch the ball. This appears to be Guerendo’s backfield, and clearly. Deebo Samuel (7-3-16, 2-3) did play back there some, but he didn’t do anything of note, and also had multiple drops, including one on a slant in plus territory that felt like a clear touchdown. It was perfectly thrown and was Brock Purdy’s last good chance to salvage anything from a ruinous fantasy day.
George Kittle (7-4-61) and Jauan Jennings (9-2-31) saw far more volume and have to be viewed as clearly in front of Deebo in the production pecking order right now. I don’t know what to expect for Deebo going forward, but he turns 29 in January and I’d call that ancient for a RB, a position he played quite a bit in his career, while logging nearly 200 career carries. That’s not even one season’s worth for a high-volume RB, but maybe Deebo’s body has started to break down a little. Also, given all this plus the other injuries, if Ricky Pearsall (4-1-16) could really play, you’d expect him to be doing more.
Signal: Kyren Williams — 86% snaps, 31 touches four days after 31 touches; Isaac Guerendo — 76% snaps, 65% routes despite questionable tag coming in (no other RB logged an offensive touch, so this is clearly Guerendo’s backfield)
Noise: Cooper Kupp — 0 catches; Blake Corum, Ricky Pearsall — their rumored existence
Cowboys 30, Panthers 14
Key Stat: Jalen Coker — 84% routes, 6 targets, 4-110-1 receiving
The Cowboys trounced the Panthers, making Bryce Young look quite a bit worse than he has of late, largely through a pass rush that crushed what Carolina was trying to do offensively. Carolina totaled just 235 yards and 83 of it came on a long Jalen Coker (6-4-110-1) TD just before half. That play was awesome, but outside of it, this felt like the old Young. Real talk: That’s going to happen. Even good players have bad games. I’m not saying he’s a star now, but he’s still clearly made improvements even if he struggles a bit in a game where the pass rush is dominating. I also don’t know that improvements are enough.
Rico Dowdle (25-149) got a ton of work on the ground again, while Ezekiel Elliott (9-30, 1-1-11) mostly got some garbage time work. CeeDee Lamb (13-9-116-1) was the real focal point of the offense, reminding everyone he’s a superstar, including a great play on an underthrown ball on the back shoulder for his TD, as well as easily going over 100 yards despite losing about a 25-yard catch to an illegal formation early. He looked like a star, and Dowdle looked good — certainly way better than his backfield mate — and then as has always been the case there’s just nothing else.
KaVontae Turpin (2-27) had a couple nice runs and is always a fun guy to see get the ball. Jake Ferguson (4-2-23) and Brandin Cooks (5-3-34) were quiet, and the two Jalens that caught TDs weren’t able to catch any other passes, even though both of those were nice plays. Jalen Brooks (1-1-17-1) had to go down to get his while Jalen Tolbert (2-1-11-1) went up in the back of the end zone, but got his feet down. It’s always fun when guys look the part but being able to earn volume is a prerequisite to mattering for fantasy.
Coker was awesome in his return to the lineup, and he started on the outside, displacing David Moore (4-2-19). This is what has always made the most sense to me and I was pretty confused by the people who pay close attention to WR roles that didn’t buy they could get these guys on the field at the same time, which is something I heard a couple different times and had bought into a little. I do know this outcome doesn’t happen every time and in every system — some teams do really care about role, and some WRs are less flexible about moving around — but this is one of those things where I guess I feel like uncertainty is a way bigger part of the answer but people overweight the only type of data they have or analysis they can do to try to make an informed guess. It’s not as simple as I’m making it, but the suggestion I heard was that this exciting rookie was basically going to have a hard time playing the rest of the season, and that doesn’t align with what I see over and over again. Instead, Coker started as the outside WR here with Adam Thielen (7-5-51) in the slot, and Coker stayed on for a two-WR set with Xavier Legette (3-2-7) on the second snap, and then a few plays later he made a big third-down catch from an outside alignment again. This is really the first time Coker and Thielen have been healthy together in some time, and then Legette got banged up and missed time in this game (but don’t let anyone tell you that’s why Coker played so much, because Coker was locked into an outside role from the jump, and Thielen was in his typical slot usage, and it was Moore who wound up on the field more after Legette missed). My point is simply that not every time role and usage is said to dictate something, it does. Coker has the size and frame to easily play outside, so it would have been weird to typecast him as a slot, and he looked really good in the outside role, including the long TD. While he didn’t earn a ton of volume, that was in large part because of how much trouble the Panthers had getting the ball out, and that’s typically a tougher setup for an outside WR. But even as a UDFA rookie who had mostly played in the slot, Coker shifted into an outside role and earned six targets and was hyper-efficient on them. A young player, who had been efficient, seeing more playing time as his coach finds ways to get him on the field to see what he has, continuing to play well. That’s both a logical story and now a very positive sign, and something to lean into with Coker for future seasons and possibly even in playoff matchups the rest of the way. I’m not saying go nuts and jam Coker into lineups over established starters on good rosters, but I’d at least be wanting to add him to block opponents who have WR weaknesses from being able to add him and play him against me. With Legette’s health now a question, my expectation is Coker and Thielen coexist as the top two weapons here down the stretch, with Thielen earning a bit more volume but Coker’s after-the-target efficiency being more impactful.
Chuba Hubbard (10-32, 4-4-17) was good, and played 95% of the snaps and dominated touches, but the offensive environment held him back.
Signal: Rico Dowdle — looked very good running the ball again, especially compared to his backfield mate; CeeDee Lamb — strong game; Jalen Coker — 84% routes, started as an outside WR and played a ton alongside Adam Thielen, and those two are the top two receiving weapons for the Panthers going forward
Noise: Chuba Hubbard — 49 yards (95% snaps, 78% routes, but tough offensive environment for the team)
Chiefs 21, Browns 7
Key Stat: Jerry Jeudy — 14 targets, 117 air yards, 36% TPRR