Jumping right into it to close out the week. Might have some lengthier stuff in the Input Volatility introduction this week, but as I wrote in the intro yesterday, most of what I really want to write about right now is better saved for the offseason so I don’t get down a 3,000-word rabbit hole when I don’t actually have the time to dig myself out of it with the rest of this column. Gotta find some patience to cover that stuff after the season.
Data for Stealing Signals is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, RotoGrinders, Add More Funds, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
Broncos 24, Cardinals 15
RB Snap Notes: Latavius Murray: 64% (+11 vs. Week 14), Marlon Mack: 29% (-3 vs. W14 high)
TE Snap Notes: Trey McBride: 86% (+13 vs. W14)
Key Stat: Marlon Mack — 5 HVT (Latavius Murray — 3)
We start today with a matchup between Colt McCoy and Brett Rypien, where McCoy got knocked from the game around halftime and Trace McSorley took over for the Cardinals. If those names aren’t exciting enough, the Broncos’ three touchdown-scorers in this game were Marlon Mack, Latavius Murray, and Eric Tomlinson. Do you see what the NFL season does to me? I think choosing to write about this game qualifies as self harm.
Murray (24-130-1, 1-1-12) had a huge day on the ground, while Mack (5-37-1, 4-4-26) played on the obvious passing situations. His 30% routes were slightly less than a clean split with Murray, who had 39%. Murray’s role was strong here, and Mack finishing with more HVTs was a bit fluky, but there might be a better shot of the sun engulfing the earth than me advocating you start Latavius Murray in the year of our lord 2022, for this Broncos offense, in a playoff matchup.
Jerry Jeudy (8-7-76) had a solid day to lead the pass-catchers, while Greg Dulcich (2-1-11), the only other mildly interesting fantasy pass catcher, had a quiet performance. Dulcich has had a solid role and started hot, averaging more than 60 yards per game over his first three career contests. But since then, he’s had just one game in six tries that has gone over 50. He’s a tough guy to bank on right now, but obviously you might not have better alternatives at TE, and certainly there are worse options than him. His routes were fine at 85% despite other TEs producing in this one — the team just went with a high rate of multi-TE sets.
James Conner (16-63-1, 5-3-28) had a workmanlike strong game, running routes on 81% of dropbacks to catch a few passes and punching in a short TD. He had 5 total HVTs and made them count.
DeAndre Hopkins (11-7-60) and Marquise Brown (8-4-19) were predictably the top-targeted Cardinals, though Trey McBride (5-4-55) had a nice day and saw his routes bounce back to 76% of dropbacks, the second highest rate they’ve hit this year. McBride still gave some snaps to Maxx Williams (2-2-11), and while it’s kind of nit-picking with Williams running just 12% routes, you’d love to have those other two catches on the McBride stat line and have him up at 6-66.
Signal: Latavius Murray — snaps bumped back up to 64%, routes were decent at 39%, got 25 total touches and two green zone touches (all positive stuff, and also play at your own risk); Trey McBride — 76% routes, five targets, decent game worth monitoring
Noise: Eric Tomlinson — 3-3-28-1, at least as far as it would look bad for Greg Dulcich, because Dulcich still ran 85% routes (team used multi-TE sets at a high rate, with Eric Saubert also running a lot of routes)