Stealing Signals, Week 15, Part 2

Biggest Signals and Noise of Week 15

Dec 18, 2024

I lost a few fun teams last night. My last home league chance hinged on huge games from Bijan Robinson and Sincere McCormick, and those didn’t come through. That was the team where I started a Brock Purdy-George Kittle stack Thursday night, and my opponent eventually put up 165 with an Amon-Ra St. Brown team that has Baker Mayfield at QB and several other good players, so my 138 wasn’t good enough, despite being 25 points clear of both teams in the other Wild Card matchup. (For those of you suffering that fate, it’s definitely one of the crueler fantasy fates, where you clearly outscore both teams in the other matchup either Week 15 or Week 16, but still lose to your direct opponent. Some leagues do the playoffs as all play in Weeks 15 and 16 for that reason, where the top two teams will advance.)

Shawn and I lost a really good FFPC dynasty team that just didn’t get touchdowns this week, so even the good performances like Jerry Jeudy and Jaxon Smith-Njigba weren’t big, and there were a few tough ones. We would’ve needed another 18 or so from Brock Bowers and Jordan Addison last night, which seems like a ton until you realize they combined for just 21.3 and they’ve both had multiple 30-point games in this TE Premium format just since Week 11.

The FFPC Main Event teams mostly struggled, and don’t look like they’ll contend for the overall title this year. Shawn and I have an industry league rolling where in Mike Clay’s Going Deep league we had the No. 1 seed and advanced on a bye, and we’ll try to take that one down for the third time since we started co-managing that together back in 2017. That’s a really fun one with a bunch of big names like Clay, Matthew Berry, JJ Zachariason, Scott Fish, Scott Pianowski, Pete Schoenke, Jared Smola, Matt Schauf, Jeff Ratcliffe, Bob Harris, and Jason Sablich (I got going and felt like leaving anyone’s name off the list was saying something so I just named everyone, ha).

My last surviving team in an Eliminator format was one of the Fantasy Cares ones and it went out in the final four by this margin:

But I guess out of all these, the one that bugged me the most was a BBT team with Conor O’Driscoll we streamed this summer, because this team slapped. The BBT is the FFPC best ball tournament that’s a $125 buy-in, and it’s a little bit of a smaller field. If you make it out of your league in Weeks 1-14, you then get put into a 12-team pod in Week 15 where you need to finish in the top two, then you would go into another 12-team pod where you’d need to finish top three, and then there is an 81-team final in Week 17.

So the goal was top two in our pod this week, then top three next week, and we headed into Monday night in third but only by about 10 points, and with Bijan, Bowers, and Kyle Pitts all live. If any (probably Bijan or Bowers) hit 20 points, we were through. If any two combined for 31.5, they’d replace our two lowest scores and we’d still be through, so a couple 16-point performances even if there weren’t 20-pointers could also do it.

I thought this team had a real shot to win even as it was a WR-light draft that lost both Rashee Rice and Stefon Diggs (remember FFPC is a two-WR format with two Flexes, and this wound up being a TE-heavy draft with both Bowers and Trey McBride, but then it also hit on both Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, and had Kendre Miller as a potential Week 16 ace in the hole to provide even more RB support to Bijan). Even with those top WRs out, and even with it losing Rondale Moore in the offseason, this team had both Brian Thomas and Ladd McConkey, plus Courtland Sutton as part of a Denver stack, so I really felt like it had the juice to fill the WR spots with scoring and then had tons of firepower everywhere else, including Lamar Jackson at QB.

Look at this absolute wagon:

Again, this team went out in third place in a format where in Week 16, finishing in the top three of your pod is good enough to advance, but in Week 15 you needed to finish top two. It didn’t reach top two because Bijan — who had scored 20+ in 8 of his last 9 games — didn’t catch multiple passes for the first time all season, and also didn’t score a TD for just the third time since Week 6, so the HVT production just wasn’t there despite a game where he ran for a season-high 125 yards. And also, Bowers had a floor game, where this TE Premium format can really accelerate TE scoring and he’s gone over 20+ six times this year. Really, Desmond Ridder sank both guys, as he directly impacted Bowers and also is so bad the Falcons basically didn’t think they needed to score and could just run on every first down and punt or kick the occasional field goal.

Not really trying to be a Debbie Downer in the intro today, because I play in enough different formats that I still have a lot of fun stuff going on, including a couple BBMV teams remaining amid other Underdog sweats, some dynasty stuff still live, and those FFPC teams still definitely not completely dead after just one week.

(And really, the FFPC division titles this year were strong enough to make this year a success for me already. It’s sort of weird that those end in Week 14 but it’s been nice to feel like I’m playing with house money.)

My point of the intro was more to discuss the broad ways fantasy sucks, and try to commiserate with those of you who lost teams you really cared about, too. I wanted that best ball team to get through, because it was a fun build and had a cool story. I’ve wanted my dynasty team with Shawn to get through the first round of the playoffs for multiple years now, but I haven’t even really processed that one, honestly. I was pumped for it this year.

It really sucks how the end just comes abruptly. You spend a lot of time in fantasy football thinking about what might be, and then after a long season, and when real life gets busier because the holidays are around the corner, games get played and things just get decided and sometimes you’re just done. And actually, far more often than not, your season will end that way.

The lesson is to enjoy when it doesn’t. Appreciate that you advanced. If you won last year but went out in your repeat bid, think back to last year that much more fondly. If you’ve been trying to find that breakthrough but it isn’t going to come this year, recognize you were close, and it’s difficult. But it’ll come. Probably when you no longer want it so bad and least expect it, but the stars will align eventually.

Let’s get to the games, for the last time this year in Stealing Signals. I’ll still be back with Input Volatility later this week, and next week, and more will be coming in the weeks to follow, into January.

You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.

Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and NFL Pro. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.

Cardinals 30, Patriots 17

Key Stat: James Conner — 8 HVTs (tied most in Week 15)

Arizona came out early with a clear intent to run the ball against New England’s bad rush defense, showing off some intricate run designs — varied looks like a DeeJay Dallas (4-15) QB sneak and a James Conner (16-110-2, 5-5-28) wildcat carry, misdirection on Conner handoffs as well as a Greg Dortch (3-3-60, 1-6) inside give across the formation (which he fumbled at the goal line but an offensive lineman recovered for a TD), etc. Conner looked really good and had a huge game.
They did pass off of that, and both Trey McBride (10-9-87) and Marvin Harrison (6-2-32) got early work, with both losing around a 15-yard reception to an offensive penalty. McBride continued getting the work all day, whereas it fell off for MHJ, and the announcers were talking about McBride getting a touchdown a bunch, and practically soiled themselves when Arizona ran a shovel pass for him at the goal line to try to get him a receiving TD, but he couldn’t get in. Everyone in the entire league knows Trey McBride doesn’t have a receiving TD and it’s now attracting a ton of attention when the Cardinals get in close, which is perfect, that’s exactly how you want that to go. Good thing this dude has already caught 89 balls and has that one rushing TD so he’s still been pretty helpful, because this is insanely tilting.
Michael Wilson (2-2-9) was quiet and Dortch got loose for a long catch in the 2-minute drill before half, but the downfield passing volume was concentrated on the main two guys, with MHJ having the much higher aDOT so those two had WOPRs of 0.70 and 0.65, while no other WRs or TEs were over 0.20.
Drake Maye continues to play at a very high level, but also have a few things to work on. His first incompletion in this game came on a deep ball in the third quarter, but he’d taken a couple sacks and they were down 16-3 at that point, so it’s not necessarily like that stat was leading to amazing results. In fairness, they’d had a missed field and were later stopped on downs inside the 5-yard line, then a bit after that Kayshon Boutte (5-2-19) bobbles a ball to a defender for an interception. If you’re wondering what that means, it just can’t be written any other way. The interception was not on Maye, but rather his receiver juggling a pass, turning, and losing it right in the direction of a defender who was behind him and offset to the side. I mean he couldn’t have made a worse play if he was trying to do that. Anyway, that INT wasn’t on Maye, and then in the fourth quarter we got a really nice TD pass where he extended a play in the red zone, saw the defender commit very late, and flipped the ball forward to DeMario Douglas (3-3-11-1) for a TD. Drake Maye has had a really good rookie season and you should be very confident going into 2025 he is a good QB, with a profile that scores well for fantasy.
The receiving stuff for New England is rough. Six guys had multiple receptions but none had more than 4 or more than 44 yards. It’s just not a situation I would go to for fantasy, even with how good Maye is playing. New England’s biggest offseason job should be to find him a real No. 1 next year because this rookie class does not appear to be a long-term answer. It’s probably the case that none of these dudes, save perhaps the TEs, should even really be in a WR rotation. It’s just a bunch of WR4 and WR5 types.
Rhamondre Stevenson (13-69, 1-1-16) ceded kind of a lot of work to Antonio Gibson (7-33, 2-2-31), including a green zone touch, as Gibson was making some plays and seemed to be getting more reps as a result. This backfield hasn’t been great for fantasy, either.

Signal: James Conner — 8 HVTs, huge game as Arizona prioritized the run; Drake Maye — continues to stack really good games, has had a very strong rookie season with a fantasy-favorable profile and will be a target in 2025 fantasy drafts
Noise: Rhamondre Stevenson — clearly the lead back, but seemed to lose some work to Antonio Gibson as a hot hand situation, and I’m not real confident in Stevenson’s workload here

Broncos 31, Colts 13

Key Stat: Colts — (-9.7%) PROE (third lowest in Week 15)

The Jonathan Taylor (22-107, 2-1-4) thing was absurd, and I had a whole thing about it written up already, about how it should have been a TD but he dropped the ball to celebrate before crossing the plane for a touchback, and the score was 13-7 in the early third quarter of a must-win game, where a conversion on top of the TD could have pushed it to 14-point lead, and how after that, the Colts actually did get more stops, but they just couldn’t close, and it really did feel like the whole game would’ve been different without that mistake. But then it’s all I’ve seen about this game, and while they did feel desperate and went to a trick play because they fell behind in a spot where they theoretically could have still been leading, it’s worth noting that trick play was fucking stupid, and also that their whole gameplan of trying to hide their QB does put everything on fragile terms and make it difficult to overcome mistakes, where you kind of need to be perfect when you run a -9.7% PROE and try to win without being able to pass. I guess what I’m saying is Taylor is an idiot but Shane Steichen also deserves criticism, too, and Taylor also played pretty well in this game, but yeah if he just doesn’t drop the ball before the end zone — I still cannot possibly fathom how this keeps happening — they stay in better position and probably go on to score the upset here. The Broncos got the defensive TD on the ridiculous trick play, then one more touchdown late to really seal it, but the final scoreline lies a bit here given the Cols actually led this game through three quarters.
Anthony Richardson got a lot of designed runs early, including an early TD run. He also caught his own deflected pass for a 1-yard loss but some PPR points. He did mostly pass OK in this game, when called upon, and the first few turnovers were on other guys, before Richardson did throw a late pick down 11 to set up the Broncos’ final TD. I’m grading him on a curve lately, but he played fine.
Josh Downs (8-3-32) returned but had an inefficient day. Michael Pittman (9-6-58) had a nice day but one of the fumbles. Adonai Mitchell was at fault on the double pass, taking nearly seven years to find the laces and throw the ball back toward Richardson. I just watched it back, and I mean I’ve never seen a slower-developing play in my life. He took six steps after catching it, drifting backward to make the throwback longer. Nick Bonitto, who would eventually jump the play, is engaged with an offensive linemen who just kind of releases him because they are probably taught not to hold the block for two hours for fear of a holding penalty. But the ball isn’t back so Bonitto of course just runs straight in front of Richardson when the throw comes back. The other hilarious player if you go watch it back is Patrick Surtain, who nearly gets to Richardson on a blitz, and is right next to Richardson when Mitchell catches the first pass, so he runs toward Mitchell and he is almost all the way to Mitchell before the ball even starts heading back to Richardson. Alright fine, I’ll make a montage.
Look at the defensive No. 99 in that second image where he’s running toward the top of the screen. He’s the same dude in the first image running toward the bottom. This big lineman had time to run a few yards one direction, stop, turn around, and run back the other way entirely in the amount of time it took Mitchell to catch and throw. And why did he run back? Because once Mitchell starts fidgeting with the ball the double pass becomes obvious. That’s why it can’t take that long! The second pic here is just so funny because you see multiple defenders for Denver doing that, having already recognized what’s happening and reacting, and Bonitto frankly isn’t even one yet necessarily, because in the first pic the lineman has him in jail, but you can see in the second pic he’s not even the quickest Broncos’ defender to react, but he’s the closest, so he’s like, “Wait, I can just run and catch this, right?”
Anyway, the Colts are a laughingstock, but Bo Nix and the Broncos unfortunately did not play great out of the bye, either. Nix threw three picks, and a couple were not very good. He wound up with just 130 passing yards, and Courtland Sutton’s (9-3-32-1) inefficient line was still the leader in receiving yards. Marvin Mims (4-4-20) caught some passes behind the line of scrimmage, and Adam Trautman (2-2-20-1) had a TD catch, as did Nate Adkins (1-1-15-1), as Nix did throw three scores. But again, not a great performance altogether.
Jaleel McLaughlin (7-21, 3-3-13) started, and got the first carry, but Javonte Williams (6-15, 3-2-8) did immediately come on. Still, McLaughlin did feel like the clear lead back, and was getting the ball with more intent when on the field, until he got hurt. Audric Estime (5-13, 1-1-5) then got a decent amount of work late. It’s all very hard to parse, and I mean who really cares when none of them have more than 35 yards? McLaughlin was the one chance for something interesting to happen here, but if he’s hurt, it’s a rough set-up. Probably Estime now has some potential, but it was Javonte who got a ton of snaps again, though he was again very inefficient. Rinse and repeat.

Signal: Colts — (-9.7%) PROE, turned to a desperate and disastrous trick play, clearly didn’t come out of the bye with renewed confidence in Anthony Richardson
Noise: Javonte Williams — 54% snaps (Jaleel McLaughlin started and got more touches, but also got injured, but Javonte has proven time and again the snap share isn’t enough, as the Signal here is he only had 23 yards on 8 touches)

Bills 48, Lions 42

Key Stat: Jahmyr Gibbs — 75% snaps, 72% routes, 46 total routes, 83 receiving yards (all season highs)

The game of the year so far lived up to the billing with 90 total points, although the guys producing weren’t always the ones we care about. The first half alone had an offensive lineman TD, Ty Johnson (2-9, 5-5-114) doing a ton of stuff, and Tim Patrick (8-4-30-1) scoring. Johnson didn’t prevent James Cook (14-105-2, 1-1-28) from also getting off to a fast start, and Bill Barnwell had some awesome notes on this game over at ESPN that are behind the paywall but he did share some passages on social so I feel empowered to pass some of that along (but always read Barnwell, he’s awesome at this stuff). Barnwell noted Allen had 251 passing yards to RBs and TEs in this game, most by any QB this year and 61 more than Allen’s previous career high. He had four 24-yard completions to RBs alone, and as Bill details the Lions changed things up by blitzing him less and trying to drop into coverage, which Allen countered by extending plays long enough that his backs were making big plays downfield (a lot of the reason you don’t see that very much is getting into a downfield route from a RB alignment is going to take time, though not all of these came from traditional RB alignments). Ray Davis (7-15, 2-2-14-1) also wound up catching a TD in this game, and Dalton Kincaid (7-4-53) was alright in his return while Dawson Knox (3-2-42) also had an impact. Knox by the way ran routes on 70% of dropbacks, with Kincaid at 59%, as Kincaid returned. Kincaid did lose a TD to an offensive penalty.
Anyway, this game ruled. The Bills got out to a fast start as they emphasized some lesser-utilized strategic stuff, which is something they are afforded with their decentralized skill position group all built around the superstar centerpiece that is Josh Allen. They are really a fun football team if not a great one for fantasy, and I’m rooting for them (but also the Lions, these teams are both such fun ones).
Cook’s long third-quarter TD run was awesome, as he got his hair pulled but broke free of that, then because he lost speed he had to stiff arm just to get a little space so he could accelerate again, and then he was gone. It was a fantastic show of strength and athleticism. Allen had multiple rushing TDs, too, and among the plays he made, he threw a chest pass touchdown on the one to Kincaid that got called back.
As for the WRs, Khalil Shakir (7-6-39-1) hit paydirt again, Keon Coleman (2-1-64) made a big play in his return, and Amari Cooper (no targets) lost a lot of routes and wasn’t a factor.
I’ve written a ton about the Bills, but the Lions were pretty clearly better for fantasy. But I mean we’re talking about a game where both teams went over 500 total yards, and scored over 40 points, so it was all fun. Jared Goff threw 59 passes, tying the most in a game this year, and standing alone as the most in a non-overtime game. He had 494 yards, 5 touchdowns, no turnovers, and even rushed for 13 yards. It wasn’t enough for the Lions to ever run a play within 7 points after their opening three-and-out to start the game. They never ran a play in the second half inside of 13 points, scoring with 12 seconds left to cut it to 6 but not seeing the ball again.
Among other things, Dan Campbell did an onside kick he admitted after the game he wishes he hadn’t, but more or less explained how vibes-based he is with this stuff. I do like where his head is at generally, and he’s almost always directionally accurate, but when they went for the fourth down and converted late against the Packers in that tie game, I got a lot of disagreement for criticizing that — which I felt was overweighting the result of that sequence — and I did think back to that when Campbell surprisingly declared an onside kick with 12 minutes left after cutting the game to 10 points. I do understand the idea that the yardage doesn’t totally matter when you feel like you can’t get a stop, and in some ways the long-field possession just threatens to waste a ton of time when your best chance is a red zone stop and a field goal. But onside kicks have extremely low probabilities of being recovered. These decisions have to be thought of on a spectrum. You can’t just embrace risk to embrace it because you have the power of positive thought and are overvaluing the likelihood you’ll get a good outcome. If they recover that, people go absolutely fucking bananas praising him for the guts and for knowing how to pull some string or whatever but it wouldn’t have changed that it was a weird call and they just got a super fluky outcome. That’s not what happened in the Packers game, because the two outcomes were overwhelmingly favorable either way, and it was ultimately about the risk of ruin. But you have to process the variables. In this case, the logic of needing to steal a possession made sense in theory, but there was enough time and onside kicks are such low-probability moves that you needed to find that turnover on a long drive, even if that chewed up clock. Then they give up a quick score and answer with their own quick score, but the next time they decide to kick it deep, which I found to be odd, as well. By that point, you were into more desperation mode, still down 10 but now with only about 8 minutes left, knowing you need two scores. I don’t know, maybe I just can’t understand the galaxy brain of Dan Campbell, but I do enjoy that they do fun things that make you think. I wish every team operated this way, and like I said he’s absolutely directionally accurate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (18-14-193-1) got loose for a 66-yard TD, and also caught 13 other passes, to show that “explosive upside” we talked about in Input Volatility last week. (Speaking of things from that writeup, I said I thought this game “has to feature 97 total points,” which was an exaggeration with some truth like I like to do. I called that “impractical” but also did take the over as an official bet at Stealing Lines, and anyway it was super close to being right as they did get to 90, ha.) But yeah, ARSB was incredible, and Sam LaPorta (10-7-111) also had a huge day as the Lions were trailing all game and the underneath stuff was more open. Patrick also thrived on that, but Jameson Williams (5-3-37-1) was quiet, and only barely saved his day with the late TD.
I’m saving the most impactful note for last, but with David Montgomery (5-4, 4-4-31) now out for the season, Jahmyr Gibbs (8-31-1, 7-5-83-1) becomes probably the most important player for fantasy the rest of the way. Gibbs wasn’t playing a whole lot on passing downs this year in part because he grades poorly as a pass blocker, but they will figure out other stuff now, like keeping LaPorta in or something. It’s not that they weren’t willing to use Gibbs on passing downs, but just that they’ve always had two RBs they love, and so they went to Monty a bit more where he was stronger, but Gibbs will be out there more now. His 75% snaps and 72% routes in this game were both season highs, and that wasn’t particularly close, as he basically played every snap after Monty left. No other RB logged an offensive snap, actually, so that might literally be true, unless there were some five-wide formations without a RB. But Gibbs is so impactful now because he’s been so electric this year, and is fresh, and has this incredible offensive line but plays on a team whose defense is falling apart and has to be in shootouts. I’m kind of expecting one of those Jamaal Charles or Alvin Kamara fantasy playoff legendary games with the 5 or 6 touchdowns. If you’re playing against him, and he fails to hit 30 PPR points, I think you have to take that as a win. The Lions do have two outdoor games upcoming, which is maybe one mitigating element.

Signal: Dalton Kincaid — 59% routes (Dawson Knox was at 70% in Kincaid’s return, and it seems unlikely Kincaid will reach any kind of ceiling down the stretch here, which isn’t to say a spike game isn’t possible either); Amari Cooper — 41% routes (lost work with Keon Coleman back and wasn’t targeted); Jahmyr Gibbs — 75% snaps, 72% routes, 46 total routes, 83 receiving yards (all season highs, and Gibbs is probably the single most important player in fantasy the next two weeks with David Montgomery out)
Noise: Lions — 59 pass attempts (most by a team in a non-overtime game this year, but their defense is falling apart and shootouts are the norm); Sam LaPorta — 10 targets (59-attempt game, and the underneath work was there in comeback mode, and David Montgomery’s injury lowkey hurts LaPorta because Jahmyr Gibbs is a much worse pass blocker and LaPorta may lose routes as a result)

Buccaneers 40, Chargers 17

Key Stat: Chargers — 48 plays, 11 rush attempts, +11.8% PROE

The Bucs dominated the Chargers, holding them to just 48 plays, and just 11 rush attempts, tying for the fewest by a team in a game this season. For Tampa, Mike Evans (11-9-159-2) erupting was the big story, as he scored touchdowns of 57 and 35 yards, and pulled 251 yards away from his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season with three games to play (needs 84 yards per game, but one more big game like this would really do it).
Rookie Jalen McMillan (6-5-75-1) also had a particularly strong game, while Cade Otton (3-2-24) was quieter. Those three all ran routes on 87% of dropbacks, with Sterling Shepard (1-1-16) not far off at 70%, in what has become a very concentrated passing game. I’m not necessarily buying McMillan as a rookie breakout after three TDs in the past two games, but you do have to think of rookie production on those terms, and I’m not going to call it Noise, either. It’s definitely possible we’re seeing something pretty meaningful developing, but it’s tricky to bank on in an offense so dependent on the RB production and where I think Evans will remain the focal point of the downfield passing game.
Even at less than 100%, Bucky Irving (15-117, 2-2-(-4)) felt like the clear lead, something I had written into my notes before his 54-yard run in the third quarter exploded his stat line. Among some struggles, Rachaad White (15-64, 2-2-17-1) lost a fumble in short yardage, but he caught a fourth-quarter TD while playing from ahead and then got plenty of late rushing work while up 20, before Sean Tucker (7-17) took over. To put that in context, White had 8 of his 15 carries in the fourth quarter, plus his touchdown reception, while all 7 of Tucker’s carries also came in the final period, and Bucky only had 2 of his 17 touches in that final quarter.
If you would’ve told me Kimani Vidal (3-9, 3-2-13) played 67% of the snaps in Week 15 way back in August, I would have been pumped. Unfortunately, this situation isn’t good for anyone. Gus Edwards (8-23) got 8 of the team’s 11 rush attempts.
Quentin Johnston (10-5-45-1) was woefully inefficient again, but did find paydirt for the eighth time this season, across seven games. This was just the fourth time in those seven games he’s reached 13 PPR points, though, despite those being touchdown games. In the five games he hasn’t scored, he hasn’t reached even 7 PPR points once. So even when he hits, it’s not really a hit, because he’s gone over 51 receiving yards just one time all year. He’s been the beneficiary of a bad receiving corps, and his size and athleticism does help with the TD-scoring element (there’s evidence bigger, stronger players do tend to score more touchdowns, which makes sense with how condensed things get). But there’s just not much else there and he’s not a skilled enough player to buy this as some sign of a breakout.
Ladd McConkey (7-5-58-1) has been leaps and bounds better, though he disappeared for long stretches of this one. He did come in with a Q tag, so maybe he wasn’t fully healthy, and he started this game with three catches on first drive, including a TD. Ladd did have a couple tough drops/non-catches on key downs late, and never really built off that early production with just two other catches.
Tight end Stone Smartt (6-5-50) made a nice downfield catch for an early 31-yard gain, then had a couple catches underneath as well, and that combination is going to give you a solid TE line pretty quick. His downfield ability is really useful for his stats if he’s also getting some targets underneath.

Signal: Jalen McMillan — 9 catches and 3 TDs in past two games (great sign for his long-term value that we’re getting some production, but playing him in redraft is still tricky in a RB-centric offense with a clear lead downfield weapon in Mike Evans); Bucky Irving — clear lead early, and 15 of 17 touches came before the fourth quarter while the other two RBs combined for 16 fourth-quarter touches; Stone Smartt — 70% routes, 23% TPRR, another game of strong after-the-catch efficiency (solid week for a streamer and someone to consider if desperate at TE)
Noise: Rachaad White — 17 touches (he does always get his work, but 9 of his touches, including 8 carries, came in the fourth quarter, while Bucky didn’t get much garbage-time work); Chargers — 48 plays, 11 rush attempts

Eagles 27, Steelers 13

Key Stat: Steelers — 41 plays (fewest in a game by a team this season), 163 yards

The Eagles seemed intent on showing they could throw the ball in this game, and you could call this one the A.J. Brown (11-8-110-1) squeaky wheel game, though DeVonta Smith (12-11-109-1) was similarly awesome. It’s funny, I look at this box score and think neither of these teams is all that interesting. The Eagles are a concentrated offense where the QB rushing takes some stuff off the board — Jalen Hurts had 45 yards and a TD on the ground — while the Steelers are a pretty unconcentrated offense with not enough overall production to go around, especially when their best player George Pickens is out. Who would you even want to start outside maybe the RBs? And they failed here, too, because the team ran only 41 plays, the fewest by any team in a game this year. And that was in part because the Eagles closed this game with a 21-play drive that took the final 10:29 off the clock, in classic Eagles fashion (it backed up two separate 13-play drives on their only other two drives of the second half, each of which went for at least 6:30, and the Steelers had just two possessions in the second half, running just 11 offensive plays).
Other than the two Eagles’ WRs, the other WRs and TEs combined for one catch. Saquon Barkley (19-65, 2-2-9) had his first normal game in a while, in part because the Eagles threw with intent early and then he ran into loaded boxes late, recording 10 of his 19 carries on the team’s final two clock-killing drives. That was a hilarious outcome a week after I wrote about his rushing yardage as inevitable, but I really do think that had a lot to do with A.J. Brown’s comments, and I think Saquon will come back big against Washington and Dallas over the final two games of the fantasy playoffs. Kenneth Gainwell (7-20, 3-3-40) did get a little more work than usual in this one, though, and maybe the Eagles are thinking about preserving Saquon for the playoffs a little bit.
On the Steelers’ side, Jaylen Warren (4-12, 2-1-3) and Najee Harris (6-14, 1-1-7) never really had a chance, and Calvin Austin (5-5-65) and Pat Freiermuth (6-3-22-1) were the only guys resembling interesting in the pass game. Russell Wilson took two sacks and recorded four rushing attempts, which doesn’t sound like a lot but was about 15% of their already astronomically low play total where the ball didn’t leave the QB’s hands.

Signal: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith — 23 targets on 32 team pass attempts (very concentrated passing game on these two stars, who both had more than 10 targets and over 100 receiving yards with a TD)
Noise: Saquon Barkley — Eagles were trying to make a point with passing the ball, and 10 of Saquon’s 19 carries came on final two clock-killing drives, i.e. against run defenses, but the rushing efficiency will be back; Steelers — 41 plays (fewest in a game by a team this season), 163 yards

Packers 30, Seahawks 13

Key Stat: Packers — 46.0% pass rate, -2.6% PROE (48.5% expected pass rate was the 10th lowest this year, leaguewide)

All of the primetime games sucked this week, so the final three game writeups of the year are less fun. (I’ll find some other tangents to go on for the Monday night games to finish strong.)
It was all Josh Jacobs (26-94-1, 4-4-42) early in this one, and throughout, as the Packers went run heavy, and then also threw to Jacobs with intent early, and then did some RPOs and a few shot plays off that, but even the shot plays didn’t wind up being really lucrative because they drew a pair of long pass interference penalties on those which didn’t help anyone. For the game, Green Bay finished with just a -2.6% PROE, but that was in part because of a low expected pass rate and some willingness to pass a little bit with a lead later on, and their actual pass rate still wound up at a very low 46.0%.
Romeo Doubs (5-3-40-2) scored twice, including on a sick TD catch late. Jayden Reed (6-5-34, 3-27) got in on some of the rushing action, and caught a few balls, but while the squeaky wheel got the ball in his hands a little bit, he had just 2 total air yards as they didn’t really get him going downfield. To be fair, he did get one out pattern that could have been a nice gain and he slipped on the cut, so that was on him.
Christian Watson (6-3-56) hit for a really nice catch on a deep shot, and Tucker Kraft (2-2-34) also had a long catch on a free play, but ultimately the targets were spread around in a low-volume game.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (12-10-83) continued his productive season, while D.K. Metcalf (3-3-28) was quieter in this one. Geno Smith got hurt in the middle of the third quarter, and the Packers had ball first and pieced together long, methodical drives in the first half, so Seattle had just three drives in the entire first half. So while Geno went out in the third, it was on the second play of their fifth drive of the game, and then Sam Howell played the rest of that drive and seven more. Part of why he played so many more is Seattle’s defense started getting stops, which put the Seahawks in some situations where they actually could have made this a game despite getting easily out-played — Howell took over for drives at 10:04 and 5:50 of the fourth quarter, down 10 points each time — but that only emphasized how little Howell was able to accomplish. The other part of why Howell played so many drives is he couldn’t get first downs, so the game devolved into a bit of a punt-fest, with nine total in the second half, as well as two turnovers and the Packers getting stopped on downs. But Howell was bad, taking 4 sacks, failing to get anything downfield — only underneath — and still only completing 5-of-14 passes. If you watched just this game, you’d have a hard time understanding why I was in on this guy last year.
Zach Charbonnet (8-54-1, 4-1-12) did hit for a long TD run, and was the main RB throughout with an 80% snap share. Kenny McIntosh (3-9) spelled him a bit, and George Holani (3-10) only played at the very end of the game, when the Seahawks ran on the game’s final three plays to wave the white flag.

Signal: Jayden Reed — 8 touches as they got him back involved, but only 2 total air yards as he’s just not much of a downfield priority right now
Noise: Zach Charbonnet — 9 touches (product of the game situation, but had another dominant 80% snap share, and is a clear workhorse when Kenneth Walker is out)

Vikings 30, Bears 12

Key Stat: Jordan Addison — 8+ targets in four of past five games (had 5 or fewer in six of first seven)

Jordan Addison (9-7-63) has been a central part of the offense alongside Justin Jefferson (13-7-73-1), and this was the fourth game in his past five with 8+ targets after seeing more than 5 targets just once in his first seven games this year. His Year 2 breakout has really come along, and people still talk about him as a role player.
Aaron Jones (18-86-1, 3-2-20) and T.J. Hockenson (7-5-52) are also very key pieces, but they feel complementary to a WR duo focal point. Jefferson had a rough drop around the 5-yard line on a potential 30-yard TD in the early second quarter, that would have already been his second of the game at that point. He’d later catch a pass down to the 1-yard line to set up a 1-yard Jones TD. Addison’s line wasn’t massive, but he made big catch after big catch, and drew a long defensive pass interference in the end zone to set up a 1-yard Cam Akers (10-24-1) plunge early in the fourth quarter to push the game to three scores and all but decide it.
D’Andre Swift (19-79, 1-1-10) entered the game banged up, and we got some early D.J. Moore (3-24, 8-8-46) rushing out of the backfield, including not just a couple sweep handoffs out of a shotgun alignment, but a singleback handoff up the gut from under center. But then, like a lot of bad teams without a real plan, the Bears just went away from this thing that was actually pretty interesting and had worked. Moore got all three of those carries in the Bears’ first 13 plays, by the 5-minute mark of the first quarter, and then they didn’t run him again all game. Swift, to his credit, looked healthy and handled the rushing work well, including scoring a TD that was taken off the board by penalty. Moore did catch a lot of short passes with YAC opportunities, but the thing that made Deebo Samuel so fun in his prime was how the 49ers would do this stuff with him and then actually commit to it, and let him impose his will on the game, rather than just do a few plays and go away from it even when it was effective. Have some conviction.
Keenan Allen (13-6-82-1) had a nice game, but should have had a bigger one, after Caleb Williams missed him on multiple open opportunities, including a walk-in TD that he just sailed. Caleb is not playing good football, and I’ve blamed the coaching situation and lack of structure around him, but it doesn’t change the fact that he looks terrible out there, not seeing wide open players, bailing out of clean pockets immediately, and trying to turn everything into a scramble. He does have incredible arm talent and I’m by no means out on this guy. It’s evident he has both a cannon and can also be very accurate with it. But I honestly think the Bears should just sit him down the rest of the year. He’s just learning bad habits at this point. They really need to get the next coaching hire right.
Rome Odunze (7-2-39) flat-out dropped a TD in garbage time on one of Caleb’s best throws of the night. These situations stand out way more when an offense isn’t in any kind of rhythm, because it feels like you really had to take advantage of that opportunity. Cole Kmet (1-1-14) had a quiet game again, and the TPRR stuff I was excited about has looked really bad in the second half of this year, as his routes are mostly fine.

Signal: Jordan Addison — 8+ targets in 4 of 5 games (after seeing more than 5 just once in the season’s first seven games, signifying a developed consistency and focal point element); Caleb Williams — clearly has talent and splash plays can come, but completely out of rhythm as far as good QB play, bailing from pockets early, missing throws, etc.
Noise: D.J. Moore — three carries from RB alignments show they are committed to getting the ball in his hands, but they all came in the game’s first 13 plays and Chicago had no conviction with that specific usage

Falcons 15, Raiders 9

Key Stat: Falcons — (-21.5%) PROE (fifth lowest this season, leaguewide), 17 pass attempts (tied fifth fewest), 99 air yards (11th fewest)

I kind of jokingly posted on social media that both teams in this game had zero faith in Desmond Ridder, but I guess I think that’s the actual explanation for this one. I mentioned it a bit in the intro, as well, and shared the note from Bill Barnwell about how run-heavy the Falcons were. I didn’t realize they were going to come out -21.5% in PROE, though, the fifth-lowest figure leaguewide this season. Their 17 pass attempts also tied for fifth-fewest in a game, and they only totaled 99 air yards, 11th fewest. Additionally, since I was writing about conviction in the last game, Raheem Morris opted to punt on a 4th-and-15 from the plus-38 on the Falcons’ first drive, which went for a touchback and a net of 18 yards, then he took a delay of game on a 4th-and-6 from the plus-38 later and punted from inside the 40 again. That one was oddly fair caught at the 3-yard line then the Falcons were able to stuff Alexander Mattison (7-21, 4-2-3) for a safety, but from a process standpoint neither of these decisions was reasonable, and they’ve mostly gone by the wayside in the 2024 NFL. In each case, about a 55-yard field goal in a dome was one plausible path, but even if they didn’t have faith in Younghoe Koo (I’d argue if you don’t, you need a new kicker), I would prefer going for it, even on 4th-and-15, over a punt that nets 18 yards. One of the things about a down like 4th-and-15 is you can potentially get bailed out by a defensive penalty, or if you do complete something short of the sticks you’re turning it over on downs but now maybe the net difference is like 10 yards. And if you think 20 yards or whatever is more notable because it’s Ridder on the other side, I’d suggest that makes it more imperative to score when you have the chance and not leave the game in limbo for one potential bad break here or there, because what you’re saying is even if you give up the ball on downs at the plus-38, he’s not going to move it from there across the 50 and into field goal range. Even if you try the long field goal and miss, the field position you’re giving up doesn’t hurt you as bad. So you try it, because there is a positive outcome, too. Like always, people just don’t consider what it means to be right, until Dan Campbell comes along and just does it and it works and then everyone defends it and says he knows the pulse of his team. Instead, Atlanta voluntarily gave up scoring opportunities because they didn’t trust their own players (Koo and Kirk Cousins), let Vegas hang, and frankly nearly lost on a couple Hail Marys late, and could have with a costly fumble or something at an inopportune time. Yes, Koo did miss a 42-yard field goal in the fourth quarter that could have proven costly. But again, either replace him in advance, or else give him multiple chances at it throughout the game. He made two other field goals. He’s now hit 8-of-10 over the past four weeks, and hasn’t missed an extra point all year. He’s 6-of-9 from 50+ this year. You can’t convince me he was so likely to miss each of those kicks from 55 that a punt was the optimal move.
It’s a good thing I wrote that much about coaching, because there’s nothing else interesting in this game. I mentioned in the intro Bijan Robinson (22-125, 2-1-10) ran for a season-high 125 rushing yards but also caught fewer than 2 passes for the first time this season, in part because of the low pass volume. Tyler Allgeier (12-43) also got plenty of rushing work.
Drake London (3-3-53-1) did get open for a TD on a double move that was pretty sweet. Kyle Pitts (4-4-28) got some underneath, and Darnell Mooney (1-0-0) had the frustrating goose egg.
Sincere McCormick (7-8, 2-2-17) sadly suffered an early injury and missed the rest of the game, after getting the start and looking like the clear lead. Mattison took over and wasn’t good, and Ameer Abdullah (3-8, 7-7-58-1) led the team in snaps and caught a bunch of late passes.
One of Ridder’s issues is he seems incapable of getting past his first read. He had a nice throw to McCormick for an over-the-shoulder catch early that exemplified that. He threw that one into a closely-guarded situation, and I felt like it probably deserved to go down as incomplete but it stood on review. But trying to drop in a pass on the sideline in tight one-on-one coverage to a between-the-tackles RB happens because you identified the matchup pre-snap and liked it. My issue is Brock Bowers (6-3-35) went in motion to the other side of the formation on that play and was left wide open, and as you’ll see in the image below, if Ridder just glanced that way he could have had an easy completion. If Bowers breaks one tackle after the catch, it’s a touchdown. But Ridder never even considered a glance to the side of the field where his best player was in motion, which is maybe unfair if his read just isn’t that way, but it’s the kind of thing that shows up play after play and eventually you need to feel when defenders are just not in certain spaces.
Anyway, Bowers had a rough game. My hope and expectation is Aidan O’Connell is back next week, but I did lose some really fun Bowers teams, as I’ve heard happened to many others, due to plays like this.
Jakobi Meyers (9-5-59) got some work on the final drives, like Abdullah, and had a decent day as a result.

Signal: Falcons — no faith in Kirk Cousins right now (17 pass attempts, -21.5% PROE), which is a problem for the whole offense, and they should move to the rookie Michael Penix if they can’t run a functional offense
Noise: Ameer Abdullah — 5 receptions, 51 yards, and his receiving TD all came on the final two drives in comeback mode (15 yards the rest of the game)

Biggest Signals

Each week, I recap the article in this space. I typically don’t spend a ton of time discerning the specific nuances of each note, but I do try to vaguely rank the “Biggest Signals” and “Biggest Noise” in order of relevance/importance, which includes whether it was surprising and size of impact (i.e. loosely asking, “How much did value change?”) But again, it’s an extremely inexact ranking, and I can’t really explain some of the weird ways I think about it.

Jahmyr Gibbs — 75% snaps, 72% routes, 46 total routes, 83 receiving yards (all season highs, and Gibbs is probably the single most important player in fantasy the next two weeks with David Montgomery out)
Isaac Guerendo — 76% snaps, 65% routes despite questionable tag coming in (no other RB logged an offensive touch, so this is clearly Guerendo’s backfield)
Brian Thomas — three straight games of 10+ targets, as the first three of his career (tons of manufactured touches, huge YAC production, late-season rookie volume spike plus efficiency is massive)
Kendre Miller — 47% snaps, 39% routes, +40 RYOE for the season (could be in line for big workload if Alvin Kamara misses)
Jordan Addison — 8+ targets in 4 of 5 games (after seeing more than 5 just once in the season’s first seven games, signifying a developed consistency and focal point element)
Jalen Coker — 84% routes, started as an outside WR and played a ton alongside Adam Thielen, and those two are the top two receiving weapons for the Panthers going forward
Brenton Strange — 12 targets, 11 catches (4.5 aDOT, similar usage to Evan Engram, and defenses often leave these short passes open so the volume could be there as a TE streamer)
Stone Smartt — 70% routes, 23% TPRR, another game of strong after-the-catch efficiency (solid week for a streamer and someone to consider if desperate at TE)
Jerry Jeudy — 14 targets, 11 receptions, another big game despite weather, continuing to show real No. 1 WR stuff
Browns passing game — takes a big hit with Jameis Winston benched for Dorian Thompson-Robinson
Chase Brown — 93% snaps, 74% routes, 28 of 29 RB touches (we’ve said it a bunch but it needs to continue to be emphasized that his workload is one of the most valuable in the NFL and they are not letting up)
Bucky Irving — clear lead early, and 15 of 17 touches came before the fourth quarter while the other two RBs combined for 16 fourth-quarter touches
Tank Dell — looked more explosive out of the bye, had a 15-yard catch and a 15-yard run, but didn’t get a ton of opportunities in a slow game
Jalen McMillan — 9 catches and 3 TDs in past two games (great sign for his long-term value that we’re getting some production, but playing him in redraft is still tricky in a RB-centric offense with a clear lead downfield weapon in Mike Evans)
Malik Washington — 70% routes, 6 targets, team-high 52 receiving yards in first game after Odell Beckham’s release
Jayden Reed — 8 touches as they got him back involved, but only 2 total air yards as he’s just not much of a downfield priority right now
Amari Cooper — 41% routes (lost work with Keon Coleman back and wasn’t targeted)
James Conner — 8 HVTs, huge game as Arizona prioritized the run
Malik Nabers — 14 targets, 10 receptions, 6.1 aDOT
Rico Dowdle — looked very good running the ball again, especially compared to his backfield mate
Jonnu Smith — seemed to see uptick in targets after Jaylen Waddle left (those two never seem to hit at the same time, and the passing game still seems to be predicated on who they want to draw stuff up for)
Terry McLaurin — 179 air yards (most in Week 15, through Sunday, and had two near misses for a potential third TD and an even bigger game)
Dalton Kincaid — 59% routes (Dawson Knox was at 70% in Kincaid’s return, and it seems unlikely Kincaid will reach any kind of ceiling down the stretch here, which isn’t to say a spike game isn’t possible either)
Drake Maye — continues to stack really good games, has had a very strong rookie season with a fantasy-favorable profile and will be a target in 2025 fantasy drafts
Caleb Williams — clearly has talent and splash plays can come, but completely out of rhythm as far as good QB play, bailing from pockets early, missing throws, etc.
Chiefs RBs — unfavorable split for fantasy (37% snaps each for the top two, and 25% for Samaje Perine)
Falcons — no faith in Kirk Cousins right now (17 pass attempts, -21.5% PROE), which is a problem for the whole offense, and they should move to the rookie Michael Penix if they can’t run a functional offense
Colts — (-9.7%) PROE, turned to a desperate and disastrous trick play, clearly didn’t come out of the bye with renewed confidence in Anthony Richardson

Biggest Noise

Chuba Hubbard — 49 yards (95% snaps, 78% routes, but tough offensive environment for the team)
Sam LaPorta — 10 targets (59-attempt game, and the underneath work was there in comeback mode, and David Montgomery’s injury lowkey hurts LaPorta because Jahmyr Gibbs is a much worse pass blocker and LaPorta may lose routes as a result)
Davante Adams — 198 yards (three catches of 40+ yards, all in the second half, against a hapless defense)
Ameer Abdullah — 5 receptions, 51 yards, and his receiving TD all came on the final two drives in comeback mode (15 yards the rest of the game)
Tyjae Spears, Chig Okonkwo — 14 combined receptions (lot of underneath stuff in comeback mode, as Mason Rudolph completed 21 passes after entering in the middle of the third quarter, and the Titans were down at least 16 for all of his offensive snaps, while Will Levis completed just 8 passes up to that point)
Zach Charbonnet — 9 touches (product of the game situation, but had another dominant 80% snap share, and is a clear workhorse when Kenneth Walker is out)
Rachaad White — 17 touches (he does always get his work, but 9 of his touches, including 8 carries, came in the fourth quarter, while Bucky didn’t get much garbage-time work)
Cooper Kupp — 0 catches
Saquon Barkley — Eagles were trying to make a point with passing the ball, and 10 of Saquon’s 19 carries came on final two clock-killing drives, i.e. against run defenses, but the rushing efficiency will be back
Breece Hall — 48% snaps, 11 touches (clear pitch count even after Braelon Allen got hurt, which just led to more Isaiah Davis reps)
Tyrone Tracy — vultured by Devin Singletary after getting first three green zone downs but subbing off when a defensive penalty gave a new set of downs
Rhamondre Stevenson — clearly the lead back, but seemed to lose some work to Antonio Gibson as a hot hand situation, and I’m not real confident in Stevenson’s workload here
Chiefs — skill position fantasy impact if Patrick Mahomes misses (there would be more bust risk, but Andy Reid is a good coach, possible trail script could lead to more pass volume, and it’s not like the fantasy value with Mahomes is elite)
Texans — 47 offensive plays (fewest this season)
Dolphins — 224 yards of offense (fewest since Week 4)
Saints — 16 rush attempts, 50 total plays
Lions — 59 pass attempts (most by a team in a non-overtime game this year, but their defense is falling apart and shootouts are the norm)
Steelers — 41 plays (fewest in a game by a team this season), 163 yards
Chargers — 48 plays, 11 rush attempts

Player HVT Leaderboard

Here are the top players and teams in HVT, including some awesome visuals from Sam Hoppen, who put these together this week just for us.

We’re looking at the full-season numbers here on the Player HVT Leaderboard, not the four-week average we usually do.

With David Montgomery out for the year, the already explosive Jahmyr Gibbs will assume a larger HVT role, which puts him in contention for overall most-valuable fantasy player the rest of the way. I’m not sure there’s a player I’d rather have.
De’Von Achane’s role has been awesome, and it’s even stronger than this when you consider that the games Tua Tagovailoa missed were down games for Team HVTs.

Team HVT Leaderboard

Broadly, the important notes with Team HVT include that committees are OK when there are enough HVT in the offense, and they are avoids when there aren’t. High-snap-share workhorses can succeed in most situations, but low Team HVT isn’t great for them, either.

Also, I’m often just as likely or more likely to stash the No. 3 back in a high-HVT offense as I am the No. 2 in a low-HVT one. That’s important to understand because No. 3 backs are often ignored on waivers. That tends to come into play more later in the season, though.

The gap between the top three teams and everyone else is pretty massive, though it doesn’t mean the next teams don’t matter, especially for teams like the Bengals where it’s all concentrated on Chase Brown. We’ve seen similar with Zach Charbonnet of late, as well.
If Jahmyr Gibbs really does consolidate this backfield, you can understand why that would make him the most valuable player in the league. It’s also why De’Von Achane is so significant, though I would like Gibbs more purely based on team touchdown production, and how big the overall pie is for Detroit specifically. Tampa is the other elite, and it was great to see Bucky Irving back in the lead there. There’s so much upside here for these backs, and while I do think Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry are still going to have a real say in fantasy titles, you saw in Week 15 where their lack of HVTs can be a bit concerning.

That’s all for this season, but I’ll still see you later in the week for Input Volatility!