I know the intros have become a staple, and Week 3 brought us so much more information that starts to round out the weekly ranges of outcomes for so many players, and there’s a lot we could discuss about that.
But the reality is most of that is player- and team-specific stuff, and I’m really excited to get right into the meat and potatoes of Stealing Signals to do that. I do have a fun idea for an intro that relates to Free Agent Budget (FAB) bidding, and I’m going to hit on it tomorrow. For today, there are 10 games and 20 teams to discuss, and we’re going to get right into it.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, RotoGrinders, Add More Funds, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
I also dug into the NFL’s Next Gen Stats database a bit this week to look at some numbers that articulate positives and negatives we’re seeing over a three-week sample.
Keep an eye out for the audio version of Stealing Signals, found in the Substack Reader app. I apologize to you audio listeners, but after trying the new format for the stats last week, I’m going back to the old way. I had to stop and think in a way that added time to my process, and those are just box score numbers so not worth it. The months are back this week.
Browns 29, Steelers 17
RB Snap Notes: Nick Chubb: 62% (+8 vs. previous season high), Kareem Hunt: 44% (-2 vs. previous season low), Najee Harris: 80% (+9 vs. high), Jaylen Warren: 20% (-9 vs. low)
WR Snap Notes: David Bell: 56% (+26 vs. high)
Key Stat: Amari Cooper, David Njoku — combined for 190 of 220 gross pass yards, 16 of 21 completions, and both receiving TDs
In a windy game in Cleveland, the Browns beat a Steelers team that quickly noted they will not be changing quarterbacks, rendering Kenny Pickett a probable drop this week for anyone who took my advice and stashed him on the idea he could help replace Trey Lance long-term. It’s hard to understand why the Steelers won’t make a change. Pro Football Network’s Arif Hasan has had a long-running note about Mitchell Trubisky over the years that he can only throw to the right, or chooses not to throw elsewhere, and anyway here was his Week 3 attempt pass chart:
Looks like he completed just half of his passes out to the left and over the middle, but was efficient throwing to his far preferred right side. Apart from just not being very good, it’s tough to be a successful NFL QB with that kind of tell/limitation.
Amari Cooper (11-7-101-1) and David Njoku (10-9-89-1) combined to dominate receiving for the Browns, and concentration is typically a major positive, but I think it might be misleading here relative to the overall volume in the offense. On one hand, I need to give a mea culpa for Cooper, but on the other, I kind of stand by my notes from last week where I said 101 yards and a TD — his same line in Week 2 — was something of a ceiling outcome for him. In this game, he did have a long reception taken off the board when he went comically far out of bounds before coming back in to catch it, but if he had stayed in for that play you can see a scenario where he had closer to 150 yards. But I mean he had well over a third of the team’s targets, caught a third of the passes, and approached half of the receiving yardage. Those are all fantastic stats and things I’d love out of a ton of guys I like that aren’t performing right now, but it’s very reminiscent of what I wrote about Brandin Cooks early last year when he got off to a hot start in a poor offense. If you need this type of target dominance and concentration of the passing game to produce solid but not amazing receiving lines, that’s an issue, because there will be down weeks, too, maybe because teams take you away or your bad passing game just has a really bad outcome. The key here remains this offense runs through the two RBs first, with the third-lowest Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) for the season so far at -7.9%.
The bar for Njoku to matter at TE is lower, and Njoku was up to a season-high 82% routes. He’s got the athleticism, he earned the volume, and he had a legit ceiling TE game that frankly not many at the position can have. He also caught just four passes for 39 yards across Weeks 1 and 2, and I’ll be honest, I’m not sure what to make of whether this could become a thing. What I do know is because the bar at TE is low, a game like this makes him immediately overvalued. It’s not smart to go buy high on Njoku from a percentage standpoint; you want to identify the next TE who could have a game like that and experience a similar perception shift. (If he’s available on waivers, he’s definitely worth the add.)
Nick Chubb (23-113-1, 1-0-0) and Kareem Hunt (12-47, 4-3-14) had a pretty normal split, with Hunt’s routes rising back above Chubb’s after a Week 2 flip there, and Hunt also grabbing three of four green zone touches, after a five to two edge toward Chubb in that area over the first two weeks. Those four green zone touches this week came on four consecutive plays, with Hunt rushing three times in a row from the 8-, 3-, and 1-yard lines, before Chubb came on for fourth-and-goal and punched it in. That brings it to six to five Chubb on green zone touches for the year.
I made a case for George Pickens’ (7-3-39) catch as one of the top five of all time from a pure skill standpoint in a Twitter thread Thursday night, recounting some of my favorites and seeing a lot of awesome replies, including many I’d forgotten. It was incredible, though, particularly when you consider the wind. Pickens’ routes stayed high and his overall production stayed low.
Diontae Johnson (11-8-84) had a pretty classic Diontae game, and that makes three straight games of double-digit targets to start the year. Don’t get lulled to sleep by the consistency because the efficiency hasn’t been great to start the year; he still has huge upside if things start to click better, but it wasn’t great to see him fail to bring in two vertical targets in this one, both of which I thought were catchable if he was more assertive at the catch point.
Pat Freiermuth (4-2-41) had a down game, and concerningly saw his routes fall to 64% of dropbacks after being over 75% each of the first two weeks, but it’s not something I’m reacting to because he’s still had an overall solid start to his second season through three weeks and remains the type of upside play to target as the potential next example of Njoku, should opportunity open up in this offense. Chase Claypool (6-3-35, 1-11) did get some air yards in this one to go along with his mostly underneath role through three weeks, but didn’t bring in those looks.
Undrafted rookie Jaylen Warren (4-30, 1-1-3) showed us something in his most extended run, though he fumbled in this one. Najee Harris (15-56-1, 3-3-5) breathed a sigh of relief when Warren took them down inside the 5-yard line at the end of the first quarter with three runs for 20 yards, only for Harris to come in and score on the first play of the second quarter from 5 yards out. Harris wound up with both green zone touches, but his routes remain less than ideal early this season. They were at 46% here, and his season high is only 50%. It’s been a slightly concerning first few games for Harris between the routes and Warren seemingly mixing in more than any Pittsburgh backup last year — plus Warren has looked good, while Najee has the lowest percentage of rush attempts that have gone for positive yards relative to expectation of any back in the league. That’s based on Next Gen Stats’ RYOE metric, and just 17.5% of Najee’s attempts have gone for positive yards over expectation.
Signal: Browns — (-7.9%) PROE through three games, third lowest in the NFL; Najee Harris — not running efficiently per NGS, routes have yet to eclipse 50% of dropbacks in a game, and Jaylen Warren is mixing in a decent amount and looks good; Mitchell Trubisky — can’t throw left (I kid, but seriously, just play Kenny Pickett you cowards)
Noise: David Njoku — it’s almost always the case that a TE ceiling game immediately overvalues the player because the position is so weak (which isn’t to say this couldn’t stick to a degree, but rather than I’m not sure there’s an actionable path to acquiring him unless he’s a free agent)