Stealing Signals, Week 4, Part 2

Where have the tight ends gone? Plus recapping the week

I have a lot of strong thoughts in the early part of the year about what is and isn’t a trend, and how people are overreacting or misunderstanding so much of what we’re seeing. It’s felt like the intros this year have just been criticizing the way other people are playing small samples at an alarming rate.

I don’t feel that way about the tight end position. Something is clearly going on, and I think probably a few things, and it’s not something I think I have a grasp on. But I do feel wrong. If there’s one thing I think I’ve missed in a significant way so far this year, it’s this position, where I specifically thought the strength at the top of drafts was so significant that it was a preferred detour to the early RBs that have been, in many cases, scoring points.

I talked yesterday about how I’m not necessarily upset at the RBs I was on, from a process standpoint, even as that wasn’t some of the guys scoring the most points so far. (As an aside, I keep using “scoring points” as the main note because it’s so funny to see nine million “advanced” stats right now that seem to all just list out who is scoring the most fantasy points. I realize the why is extremely interesting — I’m obviously constantly seeking the why — but there also winds up being a lot of double counting when we say “This guy is smashing, and also he’s crushing in these situations,” when the situations are really just highlighting the specific way he’s smashing. I’m not saying stats are bad, just that we always want to make sure to be additive when we’re digging deeper, not just regurgitating what the basic stuff is already telling us. The flip side is also true where people try to come up with reasons guys aren’t scoring that often hold no water, and I’m going to comment on that later in this introduction, re: Javonte Williams.)

Anyway, I talked yesterday about being fine with some of the RBs I was on, and Kenneth Walker had a huge Monday night to back that up, even after I’d already written him up in the intro. But I still didn’t take enough of these guys, especially in best ball, because I was prioritizing the early TEs. And even in managed, where I do have more exposure to the RBs because I didn’t see it as such an either/or, the presence of these TEs threatens many rosters.

So I need to address what’s happened with the position, and I’ve wanted to do a deep dive, but I haven’t really felt strongly. Some of the answers seem really hard to understand — Mark Andrews going two straight games without a catch makes very little sense to me even as someone who specifically wrote basically all offseason about his team deprioritizing him last year. That’s not what I meant, or expected to even be in the range of outcomes.

Some stuff has been injury-related — it’s not helpful that Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid have all missed parts of games or full games so far. Some of that may feel minor but it gets emphasized in a small four-game sample.

Kyle Pitts feels like your classic bust, where it’s apparently an effort thing. George Kittle is actually doing well, as the TE1 at 14.4 PPR points per game (one of only two TEs over 11, along with Dallas Goedert at 13.5). And then there’s Travis Kelce, and in thinking for two days about the Rashee Rice fallout, I’ve come to the obvious conclusion that I do think it has to be Kelce, who had his best game here in Week 4. He’s one I’ve been most concerned about, but he’s now pretty perfectly positioned to go finish as a top-three TE, and perhaps the TE1 again.

That gets at this point about “Elite TE” that’s still somewhat annoying to me which is that other than Goedert, who has been impacted drastically by teammate injuries, we’re not getting meaningful production from late-round guys. Brock Bowers is TE3 right now at 10.7 per game, and he’s definitely going to be an answer, as far as I can tell. But the Isaiah Likely hype quickly dissipated, and it’s just sort of a TD-or-bust position right now.

But why? That’s what I’ve having such a tough time with, and I don’t think any of the theories I’ve heard make a ton of sense. A couple of you have messaged me with theories that I like a lot more, and I want to start there. The first is from Jay, and I think falls apart a little, but sets a good groundwork:

Wasn’t going to write this email but that LaPorta screen pass was a sign… What I ultimately landed on is that tight end in the NFL is a product of scheme (not talent) more than any other position. I don’t think I’ve seen this take anywhere and welcome your thoughts. In future seasons and waivers moving forward, I think it will be shrewd to bump tight ends that may not have high peripherals but are on a team with an elite OC, and dock TEs that are highly talented/high NFL draft capital but are in bad systems.

One way I’ve always talked about the different positions is that RB is the position most about opportunity, while WR is most about player skill (the opportunity is routes, and because there are so many routes to go around on a team, the routes tend to be there for the WRs who matter, so it becomes about what you do with them). And then TE has always fallen in between the two, because the routes are less assured, so they need to get the opportunities and be used right, but then also there definitely is still a layer of the good players earning the volume.

Jay’s not talking explicitly about that, as he mentions scheme, and it gets to the broader conversation we’ve had for a couple years now about the “haves” and “have nots” that I think relates to each of the positions. But isolating it on the TEs is interesting, certainly, because TE is definitely a position that can get most impacted by stringing together TDs, and obviously the idea of pure pass rate is pretty significant. Jake Ferguson is off to a nice start this year and is sitting at TE4 in PPG, even as his particular production doesn’t have me very concerned about not having drafted a lot of him at his cost.

The comment mentions LaPorta, and he was used creatively last night, and that was exciting to see. I definitely think scheme and situation can really help the player reach a higher part of their range of outcomes. But we’re also looking for true difference-makers; we’re seeking league-winners. I’ve never found that scheme can solve for that.

To me, these are important considerations, and they are something I want to keep in mind moving forward. Kincaid for example is dealing with offensive issues to reaching his ceiling, and it’s clear Andrews is being limited by scheme-related factors. But as far as going forward, I’m not sure bumping TEs based more on OC than peripherals gets you anywhere other than seeking a higher floor, which appeals right now largely because there are no high floors at the position.

Let’s get to the second comment, from Paulywall.