Stealing Signals, Week 8, Part 2
Biggest Signals and Biggest Noise of Week 8
We’ve reached the part of the season where I start hating my own voice. It’s not like some self-loathing thing, and I can actually frame it up mentally to where it’s a weird kind of pride, where it’s something like telling myself I’ve probably written as much as or more than anyone else in the industry since about the beginning of August. So of course that happens, and it’s just a representation of how much I’ve accomplished, or something.
Mostly I’m just saying that to sort of point at my body of work, because it’s a weird angle I’m taking today, but I doubt those of you reading along since the summer find it surprising I’m pretty sick of writing. It’s sort of inevitable every year, especially because my writing is all analysis, and making specific predictions and being wrong. I desire to always be right about everything, and I think I’ve had another really strong year all things considered, but there are 32 teams and I’m making like a dozen nuanced points about each every week, and for how much I hem and haw and it feels like I’m never taking a stand, it’s just volume. There’s just so much there, and I’m taking a ton of stands, and I’m wrong on a ton, and it’s just a bit taxing because I do put a lot into trying to be accurate, not just to be right, but because I want anything I’m asking people to spend time consuming to be worth their time, is really what it is. I have a constant fear of failure, and impostor syndrome, and all those things, and am driven far more by these negative emotions than anything positive, but I’ve learned to live with that part of myself, and understand it’s why I have all these subscribers at some newsletter I just started and operate on my own. You people appreciate that. Without question, it’s very much worth the effort to me.
But it just comes back to the sheer volume of it all. Me saying I have probably written more than anyone isn’t some badge of honor because word count is not some measure of anything positive; I could use edits in almost all cases, and my other negative emotions around my writing include being deeply self conscious of my inability to articulate anything with any concision. And among the sheer amount of stuff I’ve described and presented and tried to articulate — and how I’m always trying to cover every potential counterargument and give every shape of every discussion — I’m just constantly judging those takes and second-guessing myself, and driving myself mad in a prison of my own creation, where the specificity of everything I write and argue keeps me open to so many little paper cuts of “Hey, you’re a dumbass.” And it’s really that, paper cuts, and it’s not that I’m somehow unique among fantasy analysts about making predictions and having to deal with being incorrect on them. It’s just that I’m writing so damn much and then it becomes 10,000 paper cuts, and it’s way more of a dull annoyance and an apathy that grows rather than me being, like, angry about it.
The worst of all of it is covering the stuff that I ultimately just don’t feel like I know anything about, and then doing that every single week. It’s the situations I’ve just said so much about, and haven’t really been right on, and don’t really have some unique insight into, but every week I cover them again, and try to find some interesting angle, and I find some way to do it the first few times that feeling tugs at me, and then for a few more weeks, and then eventually it’s like, “Fuck this, I do not have anything to say about the Denver Broncos anymore.”
I mean, seriously, it’s usually some specific player but in this case it’s a whole team, and their dumb coach, and all of it, and it’s just so monotonous at this point. I have written so fucking much about the Denver Broncos this year, and I don’t feel any closer to understanding them. I drafted a lot of them in best ball, thinking they were undervalued, and so every week I watch them and it’s not like the end of the world because they were so cheap, but it’s just mildly annoying. And then I have guys like Javonte Williams in a lot of redraft stuff, as well, and he doesn’t even hit double digits against the Panthers a week after going for 26?
But then also, because this is just such a boring team that is basically hitting it’s devalued expectation, no one really wants to talk about them — except the people who were really down on them. So in those situations, those are the opinions you see, ones that started from the opposite expectation that you did, and then it’s like, “OK, I do kind of want to comment on how this hasn’t actually been as horrendous as people are claiming it has,” which is just so semantical, but also I mean there are the situations where it isn’t, where actually it does wind up turning around, and I guess with a rookie QB and the ways they’ve evolved, it does need to be said that I don’t think the Broncos are dead to developing into something more interesting down the stretch.
That’s part of why this gets so tedious, especially in a year like this where winning and losing is based on in-season management. There have just been so many injuries, and so few of the things that have actually led to wins and losses in fantasy leagues so far are going to really determine the titles in December, and so we do have to be diligent and nuanced and smart right now. But to be clear on Denver, I do think there is some real question about whether a ceiling can develop, and I mean that’s not surprising given how cheap they were. But especially for Javonte, who frankly looks worse than I could have expected, even having watched him last year. That one’s just sad; they are going to eventually move on from him, and I don’t think he’s ever really going to be a lead back again. But I’d still argue pretty strongly it was a good bet to make; the role has totally been there, and the cost was so cheap because of role concerns, and the health-related range of outcomes for me at that cost is something I’d chase again.
But I pretty much don’t want to write about Javonte again. As a writer and football analyst, I’m driven by the search for something unique and interesting in my arguments, where I don’t like to just repeat the very commonly-held perspectives and instead try to find something, I don’t know, I guess contrarian? That’s a word people love to describe themselves as, to sound edgy, and I’m not doing that. I don’t even think that fits. It’s more like “persuasive,” where I’m trying to find some position I don’t see other people making but I believe it should actually be the default position. It’s not like I want my arguments to stay contrarian or something; I’m trying to find accuracy.
Implicit in this whole intro is I don’t understand how any of you, in your right minds, could read everything I’ve written this year? You guys amaze me. I do realize many subscribe but don’t read everything, but the open rates on these things are just still so high. It’s wild.
And I just opened my email while writing and saw a question on yesterday’s Part 1, that read:
How are you looking at (Cedric) Tillman here? Is this a “we think this is the new normal” or “boom/bust WR3 that happened to boom”
This is such a great example of the little nuance I try to get at and obviously I understand why you’re asking. I’ve written about his profile having warts and how he wasn’t real good last year, and it’s super easy to jump ahead five weeks and look back and be like, “Yeah, we should have known that was a flash in the pan.”
But also, what I’ve been writing the past two weeks is when I watch him in a small sample, he looks really good. And so I guess I also believe that if we jump ahead five weeks and he’s established himself as some diet version of the next Nico Collins as this big-bodied outside WR who just grew into a strong true X receiver role, I mean I do believe what we saw in Week 7 and Week 8 would have been pretty good evidence of that possibility. He’s looked really good since Amari Cooper was traded, and certainly we know that usage spells intent and they immediately thrust him into a bigger role and it all feels a little like a probable explanation for the trade itself was to get Tillman on the field more, based on what they have seen in practice and into the offseason.
And then there’s all the team-level stuff turning positive for them with Jameis Winston so quickly and clearly being a huge upgrade to skill player potential. I mean Tillman’s performances the past two weeks being “the new normal” isn’t gonna happen. It would make him the WR1 in points per game by about 2-3 points over every other WR in the NFL. But that’s also why you have to take it seriously.
Anyway, Tillman is an example of a guy I haven’t written about ad nauseum and it’s still fun to think through. The other question on yesterday’s post is a better example of what I’m talking about today:
With regards to (Kyle) Pitts,
Let’s stop right there. You can probably spot the problem already, yes? I’m an unreliable narrator of Kyle Pitts’ career. I don’t know anything about anything, but I’ll write you 1,500 words trying to figure out something useful, for reasons that are impossible to explain.
Anyway, let’s do exactly that. The question in full:
With regards to Pitts, I remember right before the regular season there was a seemingly under-reported story that he'd been dealing with a hamstring injury for some of camp. Is it possible this story was also under-considered by the fantasy community given the history with Pitts, and now he's finally getting healthy?
Yes, this is possible. When I timidly called him a sell yesterday, it was mostly because he’s been hitting on these big plays at a probably unsustainable rate. I mean, that was the promise of Kyle Pitts, was that he could do this a lot, so maybe this is the breakout and he’ll sustain it.
It would be pretty hilarious that I’ve been arguing for like three years that he’s still so young and it takes time and the situation has sucked and the breakout will still come because he’s not going to just be a long-term bust, and then it happened and I just couldn’t believe it. But that’s sort of where we’re at in that he has five games over 50 yards, and has a reception of 49 yards or longer in three of them, and then a 32-yarder in another. And he still hasn’t hit 100 yards in a game, so yes, caveat as always that we can’t just throw out long plays, but I’m just using these notes to explain what I see when I watch the games which is he’s like a 30- or 40-yard-per-game player who has occasionally popped off for a long play. And he actually hit for two this week, and they both went for TDs which have been a problem for him, and then his other two catches went for 6 yards. That was the whole rest of his game other than the two TDs.
The Seattle game was the best one. Led the team with 9 targets, 7 catches, and 65 yards, and only had a long of 13 yards so had he hit on one of his big plays (that he’s clearly capable of) in that game then he could have went for 120. So it’s not like he hasn’t been without positives — this stretch of production has easily been his best since his rookie season, and it does emphasize that he’s very much capable of a solid season, and isn’t a total and complete bust. He’s still a matchup nightmare and is obviously improving. I just do still think there are some consistency issues to work out and I guess I think it’s quite a bit more likely that he’s less productive going forward than he’s been recently, compared to his odds of becoming a full-on league-winner. But who the hell knows? Why would I have any credibility when talking about this player?
Anyway, back to the main point, which was that I’m doing this — talking through the different possibilities of different players — for basically everyone, every week, and I really don’t like being wrong, which puts me in the wrong industry, and doing content the wrong way, and sometimes impacts the tone of my writing, and I worry about that, too, and so it’s Week 8 and I pretty much don’t want to write anymore. But I will, because you guys are an incredible audience to write for. We do gotta keep churning these roster spots to have a shot in the season of attrition that is 2024.
(Speaking of which, I just saw a notification that Stefon Diggs is confirmed out for the year. That’s a major bummer. I really don’t know who it benefits but I guess I think John Metchie has the most upside to emerge, alongside obviously Tank Dell and then with Nico Collins set to return soon. Diggs finishes the season with a 23% TPRR and 1.84 YPRR, basically right on a 100-catch pace for about 1,050 yards, and 8.5 TDs. He sits WR9 in raw PPR points, and WR17 in points per game, and wasn’t a smash but felt ready to have a bigger second half as he was just starting to gel with C.J. Stroud. Frequently and unfairly called a locker room cancer this offseason, Diggs’ head coach sounded like a guy who just lost a major leader when he announced the news. I personally have nearly as much Diggs as Rashee Rice.)
(Oh, fun, I later say the Diontae Johnson trade, which is another guy I have a ton of who has now lost a ton of value. I’ll discuss him in the Panthers section below.)
(And also just saw the Anthony Richardson benching, so want to follow up from yesterday. I’ve shared a lot of thoughts on this on social this week, and was pretty condescending and then got my comeuppance when the coach supported the silly meathead way of looking at it — i.e. ignoring the context of the situation — but I wrote yesterday that felt odd to me, because it was so easy to defend your young QB on this one, and it felt like cover to eventually bench him. Well, certainly I now believe I was right, and the issue at hand was maybe a problem to some in the locker room, but the coach could have defused it, and he just chose not to, because that was an easier path forward with his roster. Maybe a lot of guys had issues with Richardson. It’s all pretty shocking because this is mostly who we knew he’d be and he needs time to develop. Anyway, the fantasy implications are very positive for Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, with Downs having shown to be a legit upside player in the realm of a young Tyler Lockett as one of those undersize guys who just seems to make every play.)
Let’s get to the games. You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and NFL Pro. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Chargers 26, Saints 8
Key Stat: Chris Olave — 14 targets, 156 air yards, 33% TPRR, 0.91 WOPR (second highest in Week 8)
This game was a massive bummer for our handcuff RBs. Kendre Miller (3-16) looked like the better of the two, and in addition to his limited production lost about a 16-yard run to a hold early where he cut back on three unblocked defenders at the line of scrimmage.
The hold was on the left guard on the opposite side of the field — you can kind of see him grabbing at the top of this screenshot — but more notably Miller made all three of those dudes miss and then went 16 yards through contact. Among my notes, I said he was “definitely ahead of Jamaal Williams” (2-4), which was obviously a big thing he needed to show, and had shown, and looked like the clear handcuff here, until he got hurt again. We know how Dennis Allen feels about his reliability, and it’s hard to know where this will go from here, but they may just put him back on IR.
On the other side, Kimani Vidal (6-16) just doesn’t really look as good as I thought he did in the preseason. He’s a thicc RB, but he seemed agile for his size in the preseason, and has frankly looked too big and perhaps slow-footed in-season. I’m not out on him — I just feel like he spent that first inactive month eating a lot or something — but J.K. Dobbins (17-57-1, 7-4-11) got 82% of the snaps here even as he continues to struggle to keep up his early efficiency. Dobbins still looks good enough that he’s the clearly better back right now, unlike some situations where I feel like the young backup should just play more over the starter. Hassan Haskins (1-0) also got another short-yardage touch at the goal line, and it’s enough already. He’s slow off the ball and makes no sense as a short-yardage runner. He’s only successful when it’s perfectly blocked, which is the worst RB to give it to.
Anyway, I started this whole game writeup talking about players that probably won’t even matter this year instead of the guys actually gaining yards and scoring points. Ladd McConkey (6-6-111-2) had a great day, with the signature play being a 60-yard catch-and-run TD where he had a strong contested catch and showed great ball-in-hand ability to go the distance after it. Josh Palmer (4-2-72) got a long catch and they have been using Jalen Reagor (2-2-35) in situational spots in a way that has been at least mildly intriguing. Will Dissly (7-5-41) had a rough drop but saw a lot of volume again. Simi Fehoko (2-0-0) did not.
On the Saints’ side, Alvin Kamara (10-67, 11-6-55) continues to rack up a ton of targets on the WR screen stuff. Most offenses have some type of running-game-extended stuff, but when it’s the actual RB splitting out and getting that stuff, it makes for an especially great overall workload. He had both a long run and long reception in this game, but the majority of his touches don’t go for many yards right now, is the downside. There’s some production, but he’s not really someone to go try to acquire at a high price. Taysom Hill (4-2-21, 4-20) was back in a limited role, as well.
Chris Olave (14-8-107) dominated the downfield volume with a 0.91 WOPR. This was pretty great to see as the youngster got back in the lineup, and he should be the focal point of the passing game going forward. Juwan Johnson (4-3-48), Bub Means (1-1-36), and Mason Tipton (2-2-14) all had minor contributions. Tipton maintained the high 84% routes while Means fell to 18%, suggesting Tipton is the clear “Rashid Shaheed role” guy, after Means had previously filled in for Olave’s stuff.
Signal: Chris Olave — 0.91 WOPR, dominated volume; Ladd McConkey — impressive catch-and-run, continues to look like clear No. 1; Mason Tipton — 84% routes (only drew 2 targets and may not matter a ton but is clearly in the Rashid Shaheed role)
Noise: Kendre Miller — looked good, was No. 2 RB (injured hamstring again)