Stealing Signals, Week 8, Part 2
Trade deadline, plus late Sunday games, SNF, MNF, and the whole recap
I was going to use this space to talk about the Frankenstein RB concept I wrote about this offseason, because the past couple weeks have been really interesting in that regard, especially as some of the elite RBs have hit for big ceiling weeks. Week 8 brought us monster performances from Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Derrick Henry, but it also brought us a highly-projected and clearly startable monster week from Tony Pollard, as well as another from D’Onta Foreman where anyone with subpar RBs who might have him rostered was probably slotting him in.
The whole concept of looking at full-season numbers to argue high-end WRs don’t necessarily separate because there are so many WRs with decent points-per-game totals is tied to this, because a lot of those WRs hit in high-variance ways. There weren’t necessarily great examples in Week 8, but Week 7 brought us strong weeks from Mecole Hardman, Parris Campbell, and Marquise Goodwin, and those guys were just not in a lot of lineups in Week 7. It’s the nature of the WR position that there are more guys running a high number of routes each week, and then the week where the volume flows their way and they really hit is a bit unpredictable.
Meanwhile, the spike weeks at the RB position are far more predictable, and then a lot of those players have a lot of lower-scoring weeks where it’s easier to know their role won’t be strong, and so when the overall RB30’s points per game average looks weak from a full-season lens versus the top backs, that sort of undersells what their contributions might have been, because you were far more likely to be playing them the weeks they were most likely to have big fantasy scores.
Kenneth Walker and Rhamondre Stevenson have been other great examples of this recently, though there are counters like Eno Benjamin where I’ve played him three straight weeks in most leagues I have him, and he’s hit only once of those three. The point stands with respect to Eno, though — he’s at 10.1 PPR points per game for the season, but 13.1 over the past three when he was in way, way more lineups. That isn’t terrible production, and that’s an example of a guy who has been mostly disappointing given the opportunity that was there for him. Obviously the Stevensons and the Walkers are examples of where the production can get close to resembling mid- to lower-end RB1s for those stretches, and Pollard’s ceiling this week while in basically every lineup for any team that drafted him was right there with the highest ceilings we see from any back. It didn’t quite match what Kamara and McCaffrey did, but it was enough ceiling that your Frankenstein RB spot didn’t hemorrhage points, and Pollard actually helped you gain on the higher-end RBs that didn’t produce as well.
Same deal for Foreman, who had 3.7 PPR points total through his first five games, when no one was using him, then has posted two usable weeks that my advice — as I talked about yesterday — might have led you away from a little bit, but even still was in far more lineups the past two weeks than he was through the first five games. Foreman’s usable weeks have directly correlated with the only times people would even consider starting him, and yet if you look at his seasonal numbers he’s averaging 7.1 points per game right now. That’s like the quintessential argument for this Frankenstein RB production point, particularly as you compare it to how some NFL team’s WR3 can have 8ish points per game and then some spike weeks, never really be fantasy relevant, and finish with something like 12 points per game for the season. I mean there were actually some people who played Mack Hollins in Week 3, or Josh Reynolds in Week 4, but not a ton, and there frankly may have been more who played them the weeks following those eruptions, when they came back to Earth, similar to how Mecole will probably be overplayed in the future now that we saw a three-TD game, or how Devin Duvernay probably looked more viable for a stretch after a two-TD Week 1 than he’s shown to be.
Anyway, that’s my short version of that recap, and much like my team-level chaos points from last week, I always find that contemplating these things with real examples in-season are helpful in crystallizing the point in my own mind, such that I can commit to the draft structures the next August that will allow me to benefit from how a fantasy football season actually goes.
But I also have to talk about the trade deadline. Some quick thoughts:
T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings is probably a slight net negative for his value, a positive for Amon-Ra St. Brown, and a slight positive for D’Andre Swift. Don’t see other significant value changes, though there’s excitement for 2022 fifth-round rookie James Mitchell to have room to develop in Detroit’s TE room now.
Chase Claypool to the Bears is fascinating, in that he’s mostly operated underneath, and I think it opens up more work for Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth than really unlocking George Pickens, mostly because Pickens had already kind of won the downfield role. But I mean that’s semantics because Pickens looks like a guy with plenty of opportunity in front of him now. As for Claypool’s side — I have a hard time saying he’s so much better than Darnell Mooney or the way the Bears play is going to change so drastically that we’ll suddenly have a fun Bears pass-catcher for fantasy. Claypool’s role with the Steelers wasn’t great, but I wrote this week about the dropback upside for that offense. The Bears are the other end of the spectrum. I’m not sure how this is anything but a downgrade for Claypool, even as he’s higher in the pecking order on the new team, because there’s just such a massive disparity in passing focus between the two offenses. It’s good for Justin Fields’ passing floor, which is important for his value, but that’s about it for me.
Chase Edmonds moving to the Broncos and Jeff Wilson moving to Miami means:
The Broncos situation just got more complicated, and Melvin Gordon’s big positive note was the receiving work, but that’s now in question. Edmonds has been legitimately bad this year, which matters, and while he’s definitely rosterable due to uncertainty, the hope this can salvage his season is probably a little too much excitement.
Raheem Mostert takes a legitimate hit since Edmonds’ poor play had really helped him consolidate work, and Wilson is pretty good and — like Mostert — knows Mike McDaniel’s rushing scheme. Wilson might be the biggest winner of anyone? He’s definitely a guy to roster.
Christian McCaffrey has one less thing to worry about, and Elijah Mitchell can return to at least a rotational role.
Calvin Ridley to the Jaguars seems intriguing in all the ways you’d think. Jacksonville already loaded up with No. 2 and No. 3 types at WR and TE, so Ridley could be a piece that gives them a legitimately deep pass-catching group in 2023 if he’s right and is the No. 1 everything can pivot off of.
Nyheim Hines to Buffalo is terrible news for any James Cook hype, and also bad news for Devin Singletary, who had been seeing a nice receiving bump this year (3.3 receptions per game after exactly 2.4 in each of his first three seasons). It’s a definite value gain for Hines, given the way Buffalo has been defended and the short-area targets they’ve had available. He’s right with Wilson in terms of biggest winners, in my book. Deon Jackson also becomes rosterable but I think we’re just going to see as much Jonathan Taylor as Taylor can give the rest of the way.
Let’s close out the Week 8 games. Data for Stealing Signals is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, RotoGrinders, Add More Funds, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
Titans 17, Texans 10
RB Snap Notes: Dameon Pierce: 78% (+26 vs. Week 7, -1 vs. season high)
WR Snap Notes: Phillip Dorsett: 83% (+29 vs. W7 season high)
Key Stat: Titans — (-35.2%) PROE, 25.9% pass rate (both lowest by any team this season)
After an electric morning Sunday, the late slate and primetime games looked a lot more like the first seven weeks of the NFL season. In this one, the Titans were without Ryan Tannehill, and they leaned into Malik Willis’ mobility and the Texans’ 32nd-ranked rush defense to call the run-heaviest game we’ve seen from any team all season. It was boring, but effective — Willis only ran 5 times for 12 yards, and only threw 10 passes, but Derrick Henry (32-219-2, 1-1-9) was a monster, and Dontrell Hilliard (8-83, 1-1-12) also had an effective game behind him. Even as Willis didn’t do much, his mobility was a threat the Texans had to account for, which likely helped the RB efficiency in this 314-yard team rushing performance. Obviously, a ton of credit goes to Henry, as well. I don’t mean to understate that.
Robert Woods (2-2-26) was the leading receiver, and the only Titan to catch multiple passes. Again, 10 team attempts.
Part of why the Titans could commit to the run as long as they could was the Texans totaling 161 yards and gaining just 10 first downs. It was a truly horrible offensive performance from them, and they actually gained a full 90 of those yards on their final drive, scoring their only touchdown of the game with 17 seconds left. Davis Mills hit Brandin Cooks (6-4-73) for completions of 26 and 44 yards on that drive, and he capped it with a touchdown pass to Dameon Pierce (15-35, 5-3-16-1), who caught all three of his passes on that final drive. It was great to see Pierce in there in a blowout situation because last week he gave up those snaps to Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale, and the three late receptions and the touchdown completely salvaged what would have been a terrible fantasy day.
Outside Cooks, no other Texan had more than 25 receiving yards. If it weren’t for Henry’s huge rushing line and some of the late Texans production, this would be in contention for worst fantasy game of the season. But there have been a lot of bad fantasy games so we can’t award that in a game where we got a 200-yard rusher.
Signal: Dameon Pierce — snaps shot back up, ran a season-high 57% routes and caught all three of his passes (including his TD) on the final drive (definitely like seeing backs on bad teams staying out there for garbage time)
Noise: Titans — (-35.2%) PROE, 25.9% pass rate, 10 total pass attempts (Malik Willis’ debut against the 32nd-ranked run defense); Texans — 10 first downs, 161 total yards, with 90 coming on final drive of game, down two scores (they suck, but this is next-level bad)