Stealing Signals, Week 9, Part 2
Zach Wilson roast, plus late Sunday, SNF, MNF, and recapping the week
It’s time for another roast. I often talk about how we come at things from different angles, and I spent a lot of time criticizing Zach Wilson last night because, in full disclosure, I needed some decent games from my Jets. I wound up losing four different matchups by fewer than 10 points where I had either Garrett Wilson or Breece Hall. Here were the final scores in three of them, all of which were FFPC main events.
Those are not great scores my teams put up, but you especially hope to win when your opponents aren’t putting up much, either. Even after these losses, all three of these teams are in playoff position. The middle one was probably most painful — it was against Austin Ekeler, and I was actually up 0.1 in a situation where Ekeler may not have come back out on the field, but Zach fumbled with just over three minutes left, it was returned to the 2-yard line, and Ekeler punched in his second score which also sent Breece to the sideline for good.
(My fourth close loss, in a home league, ended up being by 0.8 points, where I had Garrett against Keenan Allen, and I was 3-5 in part thanks to the most points against by a good margin; this loss came in a battle of the top two scores on the week where there’s also a payout for each week’s top score, so I missed out on a chance to overcome some bad points against luck this week, lost that weekly payout, and fell to 3-6 and likely out of the playoff picture.)
So anyway, I was tweeting negatively about Zach Wilson last night, and I got a lot of agreement but also some funny reactions. One was essentially that the Jets can’t do any better. Wilson gives them the best chance to win. There are no better options.
Another I woke up to this morning claimed I was just complaining without offering solutions, despite my first tweets on the subject referencing Trevor Siemian as needing a chance (and then if he isn’t working, iterating, to where you’re trying multiple players until something shows some potential). But this person also said I wasn’t (and others weren’t) calling for this until now, which got me looking back at what I wrote in real time earlier this year, and I want to get into that because it’s kind of funny.
Still a third reaction was to essentially claim that no one in their right mind would defend Zach Wilson, almost as if I was making it up, which I don’t blame them but I’m providing links because but those people do exist. And while I wouldn’t say they are defending Wilson in a major way, they do seem to believe there’s not a lot that can be done.
But the big thing I want to do today is go through some things I would have done before now, and would consider doing even at this point, though the trade deadline has obviously passed, and some of the other options available to the Jets earlier this season no longer are (because players got elevated, etc.). There’s actually so much fun stuff that can come from this where we can speculate about what certain guys might have to offer; I can’t remember the specifics of the “YOLO QB” approach Fantasy Douche wrote about years ago, but I’m pretty sure I’m going to describe similar.
Hilariously, one of the players Douche highlighted those years ago was a young Jeff Driskel, who the Cardinals recently added to their practice squad to to backfill after trading Josh Dobbs. I saw a few takes that minimized the Dobbs story as something the Jets couldn’t possibly have foreseen or landed on, and yes not every situation is going to go like the Dobbs acquisition did for Minnesota. But I would throw out there that Arizona acquiring Dobbs right before the start of the season, and then letting him start Week 1, was another great example of what can happen when you open yourself up to uncertainty. Dobbs and the Cardinals played a lot better than people expected for weeks, and then Dobbs did it a second time with the Vikings this past week.
So that’s the goal, but yes, it’s not always that easy. But it’s notable that Driskel, for example, is a guy who has started a couple different places, knows some different systems, and has even found a little success. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the team that first identified and acquired Dobbs — and handed him their starting job — also identified and acquired Driskel.
Of course, the Jets already brought in a veteran in Siemian. He should have played by now, so you know if you need to move on further. Another name I would throw out as a knockoff Dobbs is P.J. Walker. As recently as a couple weeks ago, Walker was being elevated on gameday by the Browns to start, since Deshaun Watson was hurt and Dorian Thompson-Robinson didn’t look ready in his first chance. While he didn’t play amazing statistically — 5 INTs in three games, a weak completion percentage — he played well enough to keep Cleveland in all three games, where they went 2-1 including a win over the 49ers. Obviously their defense was a big part of that as well, which makes it not dissimilar from the Jets getting wins with Wilson, but the Browns thought he played well enough to elevate him to the active roster when they had to make that decision, and carry three QBs going forward. Walker was a guy who was with the Bears all offseason, was released, was signed to the Browns’ practice squad August 30th, and probably could have been acquired early in the year, given Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1.
I also want to real quick note that trying to sign players off practice squads isn’t as easy as it seems, and I imagine teams are especially quick to react with quarterbacks. The team does have the option to elevate that player to “protect” him, and that’s something the Bucs reportedly did with John Wolford, who the Rams and Vikings were apparently both interested in last week. So when I start to name some practice squad names in a little bit, I do want to note they aren’t certain to be available. The point is you try, right? You can’t make assumptions that no one is acquirable.
What I’ve written about Wilson this year
But first, let’s talk about Wilson for a quick second, because these receipts are funny not just for what I wrote but for what I was referring to. First of all, the Manning brothers and Ryan Fitzpatrick were clowning on Wilson literally during Week 1, the game in which Rodgers was injured. From my Week 1 Stealing Signals writeup:
Zach Wilson looked about as bad as ever; don’t be fooled by the Jets surprise win if you missed the game. Garrett Wilson (5-34-1) caught all his targets, including one of the best touchdowns you’ll frankly ever see, but Zach’s passing aDOT was 5.1 yards downfield, meaning he’s not even really able to attack defenses in a way that create opportunities. What’s funny about that number is — as the Mannings and Ryan Fitzpatrick joked on the Manningcast — he’s often so far behind the line of scrimmage he’s throwing the ball huge distances, like 20 or 30 yards, for a pass that goes 5 yards downfield, and aDOT is measured from the line of scrimmage. So anyway, a huge part of his problem is he can’t just stand in there, diagnose a defense, and deliver a ball, and instead he’s bailing out of the pocket and running the wrong direction like a 12-year old button-mashing in Madden. I’m coping.
The next week, Tony Romo had the call, and was equally disgusted. I’ll note real quick that the Mannings and Troy Aikman were all disgusted last night on different broadcasts — every former QB who watches this guy play feels the need to be very clear that he is playing the position in an untenable way. He’s not just bad, that’s the point. He’s not viable.
The Cowboys trounced the Zach Wilson Jets, who have to be one step closer to finding a QB replacement after a 46-play, 215-yard disaster, that somehow would have looked even worse if Garrett Wilson (8-2-83-1) hadn’t taken a slant to the house for a 68-yard score. Basically nothing else mattered on the Jets’ side. Garrett Wilson had a shot at a much bigger day, but Zach left other opportunities on the table. The slant he took to the house came midway through the second quarter, and was only Zach’s second completion. Tony Romo was highlighting the other opportunities Garrett got on the broadcast, emphasizing his route wins, and really not liking what he saw from Zach, a week after the Manning brothers didn’t hold back during MNF. Observers who are willing to be frank are being very frank that Zach Wilson is nowhere near playable as an NFL QB right now. I fully expect him to be replaced no later than the trade deadline, and possibly much sooner, but the questions for the skill position guys on the Jets are when and who?
The Jets lost to the Patriots 15-10 in Week 3.
I got a text from a friend right before kickoff Sunday about how this over/under had fallen all the way to 35, which was as low as either of us could remember, and the game obviously still went under. There was some weather to contend with, but there was also the Zach Wilson effect. He was laughably 5-for-10 for 29 passing yards at the half, and only got up to his final 157 yards because of some late pass-heavy situations where New England gave up some underneath yardage.
Garrett caught a 29-yard pass with 16 seconds left on the Jets’ own side of the field, so more than half of his 48 yards was solidly garbage time production. We’re holding GW and Hall and benching for the most part until the Jets move on from Zach Wilson. Robert Saleh is smart with the media and continues to keep the story as quiet as possible by saying they are sticking with him and he gives them the best chance to win and all those things; quite simply, saying anything else would be huge news and also negatively impact the Jets’ leverage in any potential negotiations for another QB. I continue to believe Wilson will be replaced before long. GW and Hall might both be buy lows at a cheap enough price, if you have room to stash them. The talent level and potential second-half upside is evident.
I was at one point giving Saleh credit for manipulating the media, because it was the only explanation for how positive he remained on Zach as his starter. I was also calling Garrett and Breece buy lows, because their production was suffering. As it turns out, Saleh was not the mastermind I was hoping he was.
But in Week 4 against the Chiefs, Zach looked as good as ever. And I wrote that.
This was one of the more exciting games of the week, and you know what, we’ll take this performance from Zach Wilson. His early stuff was questionable — a deep ball to Allen Lazard (3-3-61-1) was underthrown but a defensive back fell down, and his first TD pass was a well-designed leak play where the defender was beat and never turned his head around, so he never got his hands up, which always makes good throws look great (a defender actually looking often knocks this pass away, is the point). He also missed Garrett Wilson (14-9-60) multiple times, including on a sideline shot to the end zone where GW had clearly won and ZW just couldn’t make a throw that you legit have to be able to make in the NFL. But you know what, it’s been worse. The 39 pass attempts was a legit huge sign. Garrett kept getting opportunities. The first drive of the second half which ended with the Lazard TD was one legitimately good drive, though I mean if we celebrate that as much as they did in the SNF booth, I’d have to point out we’re probably grading him on a curve here, because there was a lot that sucked, too. His dropped snap late was their last offensive play. But again, at least they went with a +6.8% PROE and we got pass volume and this wasn’t the bleakest thing ever, which is the bar to clear for most of his other stuff. Let’s hope the keep looking like this offensively, where they let him make mistakes, but keep going back to him, and he stands in there and actually throws some balls from the pocket rather than retreating 30 yards like a 10-year old on Madden. (Yes, this is me being complimentary to and excited about Zach Wilson.)
Week 5 was a step back.
After a good showing last week, Zach Wilson took a step back, including a horrible play just before half where the Jets had no timeouts left, were in field goal range, and had only about 15 seconds to work with, which meant the need to throw to the boundary or out of bounds entirely, if at all. Wilson’s discomfort in the pocket being what it is, he threw early, from a clean pocket, to an open TE in the field of play who then was tackled for just a 4-yard gain, which eventually led to the clock expiring on the half before they could get set and spike the ball. It wasn’t just the decision, but the quickness of the decision, where he has to know that throw just can’t be made there, but one of the things with Wilson is it’s kind of always been clear he doesn’t really have the “Football IQ” such as it is to be successful, in addition to just not really being able to read the field and those things (he does, obviously, have the physical arm talent and some athleticism on top of that, which is maddening).
And by Week 6 things were just sad.
Zach Wilson took five sacks and threw for just 186 yards on 33 attempts, but the Jets won, so that’s mildly annoying, because it significantly decreases the likelihood of a change over the bye week.
After the bye, I wrote the Jets “deserve to be roundly criticized” for the decision to continue with Wilson this long, which led to my criticism this week.
After losing Tyrod Taylor after just 33% of the offensive snaps, the Giants ran the ball 52 times, daring Zach Wilson to beat them. And he couldn’t, but [the Giants’] kicker did miss a late chip shot which gave [Wilson] another chance for a quick field goal [drive], which he executed, and he Jets went on to win in overtime. Wilson was terrible again, unable to outduel a third-string QB the opponent literally wouldn’t even let throw the ball. My notes say “still missing way too much,” “had an easy flat throw on third-and-2 and threw it at Breece’s knees, down 3 with 10 minutes left,” and “only explanation is Aaron Rodgers will actually be back this year,” referring to how this team continues to trot this guy out there, even acknowledging they sit at 4-3. That is, in my opinion, more of a reason to be in the QB market, but my prediction they’d acquire a passer before the trade deadline appears extremely unlikely at this stage. This is a failure that deserves to be roundly criticized, though, unless Rodgers truly does return way ahead of schedule. Winning games is not an excuse to not evaluate the most important position on the field. It is clear, without question, the Jets are fortunate to be winning with Wilson, and after a much longer sample size through 2022 and back to his rookie year in 2021, they should be seeking to upgrade if they are serious about winning this year.
Per Next Gen Stats, Wilson’s Completion Percentage Over Expected was -10.4%, which is bad.
And here we are today. Sorry to paste all that old writing like this, but I get a little defensive when I get even minor accusations of hindsight analysis, and it was cathartic to read back how clear and direct the messaging was (from myself and others). I imagine some of you with Garrett and/or Breece might have felt a similar catharsis reading back some of this, i.e. the specific plays and notes.
More thoughts on last night
It’s been fascinating to see the comments claiming it’s not just Zach Wilson, including Robert Saleh calling it “lazy” to put it all on him. I expect that from Saleh, of course, and honestly, yes, that is the lazy response. It’s also the conclusion you get to when you spend a ton of time watching and analyzing the team, and again I reference that bell curve meme where the big and small brains are thinking the same thing.
I get it — the offensive line isn’t good, and there were some other mistakes last night. But this isn’t a “there are a lot of factors” thing. You can’t evaluate any of it with this poor of QB play, full stop. This is a situation where the offense is nonfunctional because of the most important position. Obviously the offensive coordinator was historically bad as a head coach last year, too. But I’ve seen people argue the Jets wouldn’t be much better with a healthy Rodgers, and that’s just wild.
One bit of analysis I would add for Week 9 is there was clearly a point at which Wilson started standing in the pocket more, instead of bailing immediately and running 20 yards backward, which I described early in the year. That was a big part of his strong play against the Chiefs in Week 4 — that ability to stand in there a little bit, and it’s why I saw poor play but poor play that could still be serviceable. But that quickly devolved because he can’t actually read defenses.
So of late, while the team is probably happy he’s doing a better job of standing in the pocket, and that feels like growth, he’s simply traded plays where he bails out and winds up throwing the ball away for a total lack of pocket awareness where he winds up sacked a ton, because he can’t read the field. In the first four games of the year (through the KC game), he was sacked 2, 3, 3, and 2 times. In the four games since, he’s been sacked 4, 5, 4, and 8 times.
There was a lot of criticism of the Jets’ offensive line last night, but it’s absolutely the case that their struggles are why you can’t have Zach Wilson back there. A big part of my calling for Trevor Siemian is not that I think Siemian is good; it’s that I think as a veteran, he’s much more likely to be able to stand in the pocket and deliver on time. He might throw some more interceptions or things like that, but you would be banking on a superstar WR1 to really help things out there by creating plenty of separation, and then when defenses start doubling Garrett, tilting the secondary in a way that creates one-on-ones elsewhere.
(Guys, Garrett is incredible. The near-miss catch on the sideline in this one was such a reverse George Pickens from what I described yesterday that it’s hard to even articulate how beautiful his attempted toe-tap was in conjunction with holding the ball cleanly on an outstretched catch, through the ground, in such a natural way. It was Hopkins-esque, but he just couldn’t get those toes back into the field of play.)
But again, while I’m not arguing the Jets pass blocked well last night, their ineptitude is an argument against Wilson, because he so clearly struggles to feel pressure and the pocket collapsing. The fumble late in this game was due to this, but there were several moments where you felt a strip might be coming, including a few passes where his arm was hit but the ball fell harmlessly incomplete. Every one of those near misses where he tries to throw while not feeling any pressure is a potential turnover.
He’s honestly probably better off bailing from the pocket like he was early this season. But more to the point, I wanted to acknowledge the he has changed his play in some ways, but that it doesn’t matter. He’s not improving, because he just does not have it. That doesn’t mean I have an obvious answer for what else to do, but again, uncertainty can be opportunity. The Jets need to be trying something else, anything else, because the degree to which they’ve been able to stay in games speaks to how legendarily good their defense is — it shuts down high-level QB after high-level QB — and they are competitive despite Wilson.
I very much believe that with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, this team would be at least 6-2, and that’s not because I think Rodgers is definitely elite at this stage. This is a defense good enough to carry a bad QB to a championship (not saying Rodgers is bad, either). It really does need to be emphasized how low the bar is for being better than Zach Wilson, and also for what this Jets team needs to get from its QB.