Stealing Signals, Week 9, Part 2
Stealing Signals, Week 9, Part 2
RB lessons for the future, trade deadline reaction, and recapping Week 9
It’s Election Day, and also the trade deadline, and I also have parent-teacher conferences for both my kids this afternoon, so I stayed up late last night getting started on today’s Part 2, to get it out early. Today’s intro was going to be just some quick, incomplete thoughts around RB scoring and strategy for the future, but then I wrote a few hundred words anyway, and then I added a second intro section this morning with bullet-pointed thoughts on all the trade deadline deals, so check that out at the end of the intro.
I had this loose concept that eventually defenses are going to have to start trying to stop the run again, because we had some wild explosives on the ground that we’ll cover today, including Emari Demercado taking a draw play 53 yards for a TD with literally just 4 seconds left in the half, when the Cardinals seemed to be just trying to set up a field goal and the Bears apparently didn’t have a single player on the field who wanted to make a tackle. Another wild one was Saquon Barkley on a 3rd-and-17 going 19 yards to score with just 22 seconds in the half, also on a draw play. And in both instances, it’s like the defenses had never seen a running play called before.
I’ve talked about how it makes sense that NFL defenses have deprioritized run defense, and I don’t actually believe that loose concept — I doubt a couple explosives here and there are going to change anything too much. But it’s wild what some of these offenses are getting away with on the ground, and the thesis I’m now kicking around is how the whole idea of running backs not mattering — or there not being a huge talent gap between different backs — is changing. I don’t know if Demercado’s long touchdown makes that point, but as we move forward, RB talent gaps appear to be getting more noticeable, because RBs are forgotten about more, and left in space to make difference-making plays. It used to be hard for the RB to overcome his circumstances; now his circumstances are improved. It’s universally true for the position.
I don’t necessarily know that the data I’ve been trying to use is best to reflect RB talent, but it’s pretty interesting that it’s Barkley and Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara being such valuable pieces to the fantasy football puzzle, because those are players who have been elite before. One of the big takeaways from my first Dead Zone research in 2019 was how many of the very best RB seasons come from repeat superstars (and since past superstars tend to get drafted highly, that’s all tied into why it’s early RBs who have a lot of the biggest seasons). The per-touch peripherals and those things maybe need more examining, as some of you have pointed out, but as far as what I might have missed among the older RBs I wasn’t really considering, it’s almost certainly just past highly successful seasons that might have been able to catch my eye. Barkley and Henry and Kamara had past legendary seasons, and we know that past legendary seasons tend to predict future ones fairly well. Of course, Christian McCaffrey is an example of the risks. And guys like Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook are done.
It’s all very fascinating, and I’ll always be a bit of an ageist at the position, so if current results hold where just having guys like Barkley and Henry are such massive advantages, then that’s just going to be a season where I’m probably not going to have much success. To be fair, while those guys are going to propel teams into the playoffs in a ton of leagues, they don’t necessarily have to be the biggest performers in the money weeks. Their per-game scoring levels aren’t in that truly elite range, and we’ve seen them have weaker games mixed in, too.
But my point today is while I’ve always believed in the replaceability of the RB position in fantasy, the way things are going with the sport, there’s so much intrigue, and there are so many new avenues to consider. And because of it, I do look forward to attacking the RB position in future years, and in different ways than I really ever have.
One of the things I’m always preaching is to not overreact to one year of results, but this isn’t that, because again, I’m not trying to chase the Barkley, Henry, or Kamara outcomes. What I do want to spend a lot of time with is how much I’m willing to be in on more of the RB Targets I do like. The way my frustration manifests is I was very high on guys like Bijan Robinson, De’Von Achane, Kenneth Walker, and James Cook, but was structurally opposed to drafting a bunch of RBs early, so I don’t have a lot of teams that have multiple of those guys together. One of the reasons was I was confident we’d get late-round RB scoring, and particularly from the rookies, and we have from guys like Tyrone Tracy and Bucky Irving, and we’ll only get more by the end of the year, but none of that has reached the levels of the early-round guys. It’s actually been pretty difficult to build the Frankenstein RB points.
That’s all been a tough runout. I’ve been confident in a lot of structural things, and the way this season has gone and is likely to have finished, I do think my bigger misses are going to be structural, as opposed to player takes, which is tough. Last year, I absolutely nailed the structure of the season and we all crushed across formats. I didn’t feel as confident this year — I wrote it that way — but I still wanted that to be the thing I did that differentiated, my structural work. In hindsight, the clue was there that I really didn’t think it was easy to write up that piece and say, “Follow this specific blueprint” like I did in 2023. At least I did argue to hit a high-end RB and potentially a second in the first eight or nine rounds in my “benchmarks to hit” section of that piece, which for me is outright RB-heavy.
Anyway, as I consider adjustments, all of this has to understand that it’s both an exceptionally healthy RB season, and an exceptionally unhealthy WR season. Understanding how to smartly react to how NFL defenses seem to just be rolling out the red carpet for RBs in some cases, without unlearning all the important positional lessons of the past, will be the key. And it’s something I look forward to monitoring over the rest of this season, as I formulate more thoughts into the offseason. But broadly, I’m still pretty into the general thrust of a piece I wrote around this time in 2022 called, “RB talent doesn’t matter, but it’s the most important thing,” and I’m pretty excited to continue embracing how RB talent can impact results — both in fantasy and also real life — going forward.
That was going to be it for the intro, but trades are happening.
Zack Moss is out for the season, unfortunately, and that injury sounds pretty serious and you hate to see that for him. The Bengals acquired Khalil Herbert, and among the first things I saw on social was someone suggesting he’d play the Moss role and then some. I do think Herbert is a bigger talent, which was the point, but there is an order to these things. The Bengals made a commitment to Moss, and he was going to have a stable role as a result, but they also have clearly tipped their hand that they love Chase Brown. I do really like this for Herbert, and I’m writing this bullet to say that he’s very much worth an add on the uncertainty of the Bengals’ pass-blocking stuff. But I also don’t know that they definitely dislike Brown there as much as that was Moss’ role, and I especially don’t know how you could see their offense look the way it did this week, with their highest-scoring game of the season, with the largest margin of victory, without Tee Higgins, as Brown was in an 80% snap role and got a whopping 32 touches, while the Bengals did deal with a really good defense line and elite pass rusher in Maxx Crosby, and then think the new acquisition who has to learn the playbook on the fly is going to be a bigger issue to Brown’s breakout than his old backfield mate. Herbert matters, but in the short term he’s likely to be a straight backup, and in the longer term his upside is basically the usage Moss was getting, unless Brown misses time, in which case he could be really good. I’m not trying to sound negative on Herbert, but this doesn’t derail the Brown breakout, either.
The Cowboys gave up a fourth for Jonathan Mingo, and then Jerry Jones said they really liked him coming out of college, which was evident since that’s the only way you’d think he’s worth a fourth-round pick in a trade market where vets frequently go for less. The Panthers got far less for Diontae Johnson. Mingo will probably wind up playing more than he should but even controlling for a bad situation he has not shown even skill. I know it’s early in his career, but we can actually make quicker judgments than we do in a lot of cases, and this is one where it’s extremely unlikely he makes the entire turnaround he’d need to, as he hasn’t really flashed at anything — target-earning, ball skills, football IQ, etc. Obviously, with Dak Prescott hitting IR in a 3-5 season with a tough upcoming schedule, this isn’t going to be the Cowboys’ year.
After I was well into writing this piece, the Steelers got Mike Williams, which I like for all parties. The Jets weren’t going to use him with their concentrated two-man WR group, and he gets an opportunity in an offense that likes to go downfield off play action to potentially hit for some big plays as his best skill set is likely still as a downfield ball tracker and contested catch guy. That will be helpful for the Steelers, who could use more WR help. George Pickens shouldn’t be seriously threatened by Williams. I don’t see a downside here at all, honestly. You just take empty Van Jefferson routes and improve them, theoretically, and Pickens probably benefits from the idea of a threat more than his target share gets dinged. Same with Pat Freiermuth. This is a team that had target volume to spare, and Mike Williams is not hurting anyone’s value.
It’s not a trade, but I haven’t commented on Christian McCaffrey reportedly being on track to play this week coming out of the bye. This one is pretty straightforward in that I don’t know anything, but I think his usage will be elite on a per-snap basis, and the question will be snaps. Because of his specific injury, my guess is the snap rate won’t actually be high, and probably won’t get there for the whole regular season. That will keep him from reaching his absurd fantasy ceiling, but he might play more in the red zone and in the passing game and situationally benefit in a HVT-rich role, which honestly could still have him scoring as much as any other RB (i.e. low 20s in PPR points per game, rather than his past demonstrated ability to hit 25+ and approach 30). Jordan Mason being banged up isn’t going to help him in the short term, but I do think it’s possible Mason maintains enough of a role to be a flex option, and this week especially I guess I’d be pretty surprised if CMC was immediately back in a 60% or greater snaps role. I’m probably projecting him for something like 40% in his first game, and Mason at about 40% with plenty of rushing work if he’s not at all limited by health. That would leave about 20% for Isaac Guerendo, who looked good before the bye, or the non-RB looks where it’s Kyle Juszczyk or Deebo Samuel in the backfield. Those estimates are subject to change wildly by the time I write Input Volatility, based on reports this week.
I’ll have more about the trade deadline later this week. Let’s jump into the games. You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and NFL Pro. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Cardinals 29, Bears 9
Key Stat: Trey Benson — 28% snaps, 26% routes, 9 touches, 55 yards, TD
The final scoreline shows a blowout, but the aforementioned 53-yard Emari Demercado (4-59-1, 2-2-21) run right before halftime was a massive play that pushed this game from 14-9 to 21-9 right before half. Arizona then got two field goals and a late safety to add 8 points in the second half. Certainly, the Bears’ inability to score any second-half points against a bad defense was pretty alarming, and while I had some positive Caleb Williams notes about some good throws on the run in the first half, he looked alarmingly inaccurate again at times. I still want to believe coaching has a lot to do with this, especially since some of his very best plays are coming on the move after the play breaks down, but it has to be said that he’s missed a lot of open throws. Maybe the game’s just moving a little too fast for him right now, which a coaching staff that doesn’t give you any layups and confidence builders is going to negatively influence that.
Kyler Murray wasn’t much better, completing just 13 passes for 154 yards. The Cardinals leaned heavily into the run with a -12.0% PROE, and did successfully Establish It, especially on a 13-play, nearly 8-minute field goal drive that took up a huge chunk of the third quarter and propelled them from that halftime lead toward coasting to a victory. Trey Benson (8-37-1, 1-1-18) was a big story. He took a screen pass 18 yards on the first play of the Cardinals’ second drive of the game, after an early three-and-out. He then started getting work early in the second quarter, after a long Chicago field goal drive, so James Conner (18-107, 3-3-12) would have been rested. Benson got a carry on the first play of that drive, and then Marvin Harrison (5-2-34) lost a fumble on the next play, but after another 6-play Bears’ drive, Benson started the next drive as well. Conner did sub right in and play most of that ensuing drive, but the point I’m making is it wasn’t about spelling Conner; instead, it was clear they were intentionally getting Benson work. And he looked good, too. The bulk of his work still came in the fourth quarter, with five carries in the final period, but Conner’s 48% snaps were easily a season low in a healthy game. Arizona has one more game before a Week 11 bye, but Benson’s usage here was favorable enough that he’s one again worth being proactive on and stashing if he’s available in your league. That said, Arizona is up to 5-4 and will very much believe they are in contention, so don’t necessarily count on a transition plan away from Conner. Demercado also factors in, continues to have a role, and it can’t be ignored he made a big play in this one, too.
Harrison had a quiet game, though everyone in the pass game sort of did. Trey McBride (4-3-35, 1-2-1) had a big catch down to the 2-yard line, and it felt like it was another example of his lack of TD upside, but then he got a carry on the next play and a rushing TD. Later, they drew up a play-action leak play where he was wide open in the back of the end zone. The play worked, and I know this is cliche but the only real explanation is Kyler literally was not able to see how uncovered McBride was because of his height.
From this image, he spun around for some reason, then the defender who appears to be dropping to cover McBride actually sucked in on the other tight end, and McBride was just standing in the back of the end zone waving his arms completely alone. Kyler, who had created a pressure situation, tried to throw off balance to him, and sailed it out of the end zone. As I wrote in the tweet, even at that point he basically just needed to lead McBride toward the sideline and keep the ball inbounds. McBride was visibly frustrated after the play, and the play-by-play guy exclaimed “He was wide open!” but in terms of moral victories it was nice to see they made multiple efforts to get him into the end zone.
No other Cardinal had more than two catches, and both Michael Wilson (1-0-0) and Greg Dortch (1-0-0) went catchless.
The Bears’ side was frustrating, as I noted. Rome Odunze (7-5-104) had a nice day, and twice found space for a scrambling Caleb to find him for throws on the run on extended plays, each time generating a first down. On one of those plays, he stepped up to avoid a free rusher, then extended out to his right, and fired a seed on the run. It was awesome, and that connection between the rookies was nice to see. D.J. Moore (9-4-33) and Keenan Allen (10-4-36) both had poor days, and all three WRs had over 100 air yards, but Williams still only threw for 217 yards. Cole Kmet wasn’t even targeted. In a comeback script, where Caleb was dropping back a lot in the second half, he just wasn’t good enough.
D’Andre Swift (16-51, 6-6-31) had some nice moments, and Roschon Johnson (3-13, 3-2-8) is now solidified as the clear No. 2 with Khalil Herbert traded.
Signal: Trey Benson — got first-half work with intent, while James Conner’s 48% snaps were a healthy season low, and Benson did flash efficiency (55 yards on 9 touches and could start to earn more work, is a handcuff worth targeting); Trey McBride — got some close green zone opportunities, with a handoff and a play-action pass where he was the clear single read (scored one TD, should have had two)
Noise: Cardinals — 20 passes, -12.0% PROE; Cole Kmet — zero targets (routes were solid at 76%, no reason to believe this was anything but variance as the three WRs got a ton of work)