I have a pretty big announcement today. Next week, I’m going to completely switch up the Stealing Signals format, not permanently, but just as a trial run. I’ve talked about this idea before, and I think now is a good time.
The ways I dig into things game by game are extremely helpful early in the season, but over the years I’ve always felt this piece gets less useful in the second half of the season, particularly because of how I wind up writing a lot of words on stuff that is repeating what we already know. Some of the work I’d love to be doing most right now is stuff like the one-off team-by-team TPRR notes I sometimes do, but I’m not finding time. It could be argued the same Stealing Signals structure that is so valuable in the first month or two becomes a detriment to doing the best type of analysis possible once we get into November.
I know some of you guys are still reading every word, but I’ve also heard from a lot of people who have stopped doing that, and are instead checking in for specific notes on specific players. The structure of the piece does work well for that, where people can pick and choose what to read and it’s all going to be there. But for most people, and for myself, this article is about finding the five or 10 spots where something might be overlooked in the industry at large. I’m hoping this will work us in that direction, and that loosening the structure will allow me refocus energy on potentially more impactful analysis.
The goal is to be more efficient such that the body of work is better and more actionable overall, but also just to give me a new way to look at things. I’m confident the majority of you guys still reading this every week trust my ability to get the best information to you in the most effective way.
Here’s my idea.
I’m not planning to make this a permanent change, pending feedback.
I’m going to structure the whole piece in sections, like longer versions of the HVT sections I do at the end of Part 2 each week. I’m still going to go game by game in the first section, but that section will be far more focused on just game script and team-level data like PROE, with some quick notes on the most-impacted players. That’s the biggest value add of the game-by-game structure, in my opinion. I’ll still have the “Signal” and “Noise” bullets in there somewhere.
I will then dig into some of the key stats in subsequent sections. After the game-by-game stuff which will lead Part 1, I’ll do deeper dives into HVT notes, TPRR/WOPR/receiving-specific notes, snap notes, and potentially a few others. I want to split those sections off because a lot of that data needs to be looked at over multiple weeks to build interesting takeaways, and a lot of the time in the current structure I’m just commenting on how one game went and not really on what that means for player value, mostly due to time constraints. This new idea will mean I don’t hit on every single player every week, but the ones I do hit on will include more actionable notes.
Throughout the various sections, I will in some way still highlight “Signal” and “Noise” as always. And then the end of Part 2 will still have the Biggest Signals and Noise summary.
Probably Part 1 will be something like a healthy intro, the more focused game-by-game notes, maybe something else, and then will close with anything I saw from snap/route shares that was particularly interesting. And then Part 2 will open with anything interesting from Monday Night Football, and then go into HVT stuff, all the receiving stuff I want to dive into more, and then have the summary of Biggest Signals and Biggest Noise at the end.
I won’t know the specific structure until I work through it, but I’m excited to attack things a little differently as a change-of-pace in a way that I think will bring some new viewpoints to the forefront. I’ve obviously given this a ton of thought, and my hope is restructuring the whole piece allows me to do more of the engaging analysis and less filler, but I’m very receptive to the idea this change will lose some of what you guys love, so as always, feedback is encouraged. In this case, it’s strongly encouraged, especially from those of you who are long-time readers, because it’s such a major change, and will be a trial run.
Mostly, I just want to try this. I want to see if it reinvigorates me in a way that leads to better research, or if I find myself a little bit lost without the structure I typically follow. It might be the case that I feel like I’ve left the stove on in a bunch of different places, because I know I haven’t been thorough enough. It’ll be interesting!
Let’s close out Week 9. Only four games today, and then the recap stuff.
Data for Stealing Signals is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, RotoGrinders, Add More Funds, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
Seahawks 31, Cardinals 21
RB Snap Notes: Kenneth Walker: 77% (+0 vs. Week 8 season high), James Conner: 71% (return), Eno Benjamin: 27% (lowest since Week 4)
WR Snap Notes: Robbie Anderson: 83% (+65 vs. previous season high)
Key Stat: James Conner — 71% snaps, 66% routes, 5 HVT
The Seahawks mostly dominated the Cardinals, winning easily despite giving up a pick-six in the early third quarter that looked like it might flip the game in the Cardinals’ favor. Seattle led at that point, but the game flipped from 10-7 to 14-10. From there, they out-scored Arizona 21-7, and for the game they outgained them 421 to 262. In terms of these being two teams where there have been season-long questions about how legit the Seahawks are and how broken Arizona is, this game was pretty much one more data point to back up stuff we’ve seen.
Kenneth Walker (26-109-2, 4-3-20) matched last week’s season high with another 77% snap share, and has grown into a fantastic role. His 6 HVT here were a season high, and he’d actually not yet had a game with more than 3 so far this year, mostly being a TRAP back. In this one, he ran a season-high 55% routes and also notched three green zone touches, scoring on two.
Geno Smith continued to ball, and D.K. Metcalf (6-5-37-1) and Tyler Lockett (5-5-67-1) both found the end zone. Noah Fant (6-5-96) had a very strong game and absolutely looked the part of the athletic former first-round pick that I was excited to get exposure to late in drafts, but unfortunately his 63% routes were only slightly a season high, and he’s hit 55% or more in three other games. You could argue his role is expanding a little bit, because this was his first 60% route game, and his previous four were all in the fifties after his first four were all in the fourties. But it’s a tough sell, and even at 63% routes it’s not a fantastic role. Will Dissly (4-3-24) was quiet for most of the early going while Fant was doing his damage, but still wound up just two targets shy of Fant, and he ran routes on 37% of dropbacks. That was down for him after back-to-back games in the fifties, but Dissly has bounced around a bit and has seen his routes fall down to the thirties five other times this year, so again, this doesn’t look like a major role change in terms of TE usage.
James Conner (7-45, 5-5-19) returned to a big snap share, running routes on 66% of the dropbacks and getting 5 of the team’s 6 HVTs. Eno Benjamin (4-12, 1-1-15) maintained the clear advantage over Keaontay Ingram for the No. 2 role, but Benjamin was definitely pushed into a backup situation rather than a timeshare.
DeAndre Hopkins (5-4-36-1) found the end zone despite having his quietest target share game since returning, while Rondale Moore (10-8-69) and Zach Ertz (8-5-40-1) saw the majority of the targets in underneath space. The Seahawks have for a long time been notorious for trying to lock down outside WRs but allowing underneath options — and specifically TEs — to soak up lower-value targets, which is more or less what we saw here. But Moore now has 8+ targets and 6+ receptions in four of his past five games as he remains a pretty consistent piece of the offense.
Robbie Anderson (3-1-(-4)) saw a huge increase in his role to 86% of the routes, but didn’t do much to earn volume. That’s still pretty notable as he hopes to make an impact as a downfield weapon, and as noted, this probably wasn’t the matchup for him to do that on the outside. Some potential with this route volume that he could in future games, but he’s also been pretty inefficient over the past couple seasons, so there’s also some question whether he’s up for that.
Signal: Kenneth Walker — season highs with 77% snaps, 55% routes, and 6 HVTs, including three green zone touches; James Conner — 71% snaps, 66% routes, 5 HVTs in return to lineup (Eno Benjamin pushed to clear No. 2 role); Robbie Anderson — routes spiked to 86%, looks like a full-time player suddenly after slim usage through two games with Arizona
Noise: Noah Fant — 96 yards (really strong day and looked the part, but only a slight uptick in routes and at 63% the role doesn’t really back up that he’s suddenly trustable unless and until we see more)